More than 1/3 of pitchers in the USA between age of 8 and 17 have suffered a pitching-related injury in past 12 months. Of those: 57% pitched on back-to-back days and 33% pitched for multiple teams during same season. http://thebbr.com/homepage/index
Joe Specter on PEDs –
When it comes to the use of PED’s in professional sports, many Libertarians, some of which I have a great deal of respect for, have said that PED’s, like other illegal drugs, shouldn’t be banned from professional sports no more than cocaine should be illegal for you or I. Nick Gillespie, the editor-in-chief of Reason magazine and Reason.com, seems to think most sports writers are hyper moralistic on the issue of PED’s as he stated in a recent article regarding Ryan Braun. I have a feeling that he’s not much of a sports fan especially based on how he views the majority of sports writers. Not well if you read his article. http://networkedblogs.com/NWZMF
Okay… getting to the playoffs is pretty simple this year. Forget trying to catch Atlanta for the division race. You need to only follow what Cincinnati does. If you catch them, you will pass Arizona and keep ahead of all the others. The Red have to lose ten more times than the Mets do for the rest of the season. The schedule includes three games against each other on September 23-25 that could be all the marbles… that is, if you’re still counting marbles…
I’ll keep saying it until blood comes out of my ears… if your starting rotation goes 7.0-IP and gives up 3 or less runs, you will win 90+ games.
We move on to the pen…
I’m going to break out some information on the guys that have shined this year at both the AAA and AA level. There are many, which is a very positive sign that the Mets may have some help in the pen soon from the system. Here’s who I think you need to keep an eye on:
Jeurys Famila – My odds-on favorite to join the 2014 Mets pen is Familia, who is currently recovering from elbow surgey. He pitched in six games for Las Vegas (0.00) and St. Lucie (4.50) and eight for the Mets (3.48). His electric games sets up perfect for a late inning guy and the Mets coachng staff continues to try and harness his natural talent and get his pitches headed towards the zone. I always considered his approach to the game as being similar to Jenrry Mejia… a lot of speed and a ton of movement. Look for Familia to become one of the two ROOGYs in 2014.
Jack Leathersich – Leathersich was on a road very few pitchers had ever travelled. ‘Leather’ burst on the scene as the 2011 5th round draft pick out of the University of Mass-Lowell. He began his Mets career in the same year, striking out 26 in 12.2-IP, bu this was just the beginning of a pace no one had seen in maybe decades… 2012 Savannah – 37-K/24.0-IP… 2012 St. lucie – 76-K/48.0-IP… and then the remarkable 2013 in Binghamton – 55-K/29.1-IP… this was a whopping 16.88 SO9, unheard of in professional baseball. Well, things hve calmed down in Las Vegas, the graveyard for pitchers. He’s still (as of 8-7) striking people out (32-K/19.1-IP/14.90-SO9), but he continues to give up too many walks (58 in the last 91.2-IP). Still, I think you’ll see him in Queens on opening day as one of the two LOOGYs in 2014, along with Josh Edgin.
John Church – Here’s the Rodney Dangerfield of the New York Mets pen development staff. Check out these ERAs per level: A: 3.27… A+: 3.55… AA: 3.41… AAA: 1.20. Church is a 26-year old workhorse (151 appearances in past four seasons) who just goes out there and does his job. I knew him as a starter in Savannah, but it was obvious that there were going to be too many people for him to climb over to get to the Mets rotation someday. Since then, he’s put up all-star numbers wherever he pitched and he’s currently pitching lights out in the crazy PCL. He has 43 appearances already this year, but only 11 at the AAA level, so he probably will head back to Las Vegas next spring. Still, I wish the Mets would give a close look here.
Adam Kolarek – A lot of scouts think Kolarek is ready for a trip to Queens. The 24-year old 11th rond (2010) pick had 44 appearances for St. Lucie in 2012 (1-3, 2.37) and 36 so far this year for Binghamton (2-3, 1.99). The only blemish on his career was two random appearances he was asked to pitch this year in Las Veags that results in an 11.25 ERA (5-R, 4.0-IP). He has a fastball that hits 94 and an above average slider. Potentially, he’s projected as one of the candidates for one of the LOOGY postions in the near future.
Jeff Walters – It’s always fun to watch how some of these pitchers evolve. Walters was drafted in the 7th round of the 2010 draft and was a starter in his senior year for the University of Georgia (2-6, 7.90).The Mets still drafted him, tossed him 50K as a bonus and sent him to Kingsport for a couple games. In 2011, he started 14 games for Brooklyn, going 4-6, 3.32, but that would be the end of his starter role for this team. It was off to the pen in 2012 for first, Savannah (0.95), and then St. Lucie (3.76). But the Mets weren’t done and this year they turned him into the closer in Binghamton (4-2, 1.89, 32-SV) where he has set a team record for the most saves in a B-Mets season. He has excellent command. There is buzz that you might see Walters added to the 40-man and be one of the September call-ups. I’d rather him take the time off and come back in the spring to eventually begin the season in Vegas. We’ll see. It’s a little too early to determine if he has the stones to be a big league closer.
There are others… Chase Huchington, Armondo Rodriguez, and Hamilton Bennett… all of which are Vegas bound next season. Sadly, everybody has to be knocked around in that league and team experts have to figure out somehow if they have what it takes to mentally survive there and then, make it in the majors.
I would like to see a lot of these guys get a chance to compete for a few spots in Spring Training. I've had enough of guys like Hawkins and Atchison in the pen. Looking forward to September when some of the young guys will get the call to get their first taste of the big leagues.
ReplyDeleteKevin - I'm sure that's the plan. This year's pen will hopefully be the last one to be dominated by 'hold the fort' guys.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, Mack didn't mention a few guys that still start in the minors but are more likely to make it to the show as relievers - and soon - DeGrom, Mazzoni, Goeddel are three that come to mind. Further down the line are Lara, Robles (if he gets his velocity back) and Mateo (elbow).
Mack, great list of future Mets bullpen arms. A few other guys i want to add to this list that are currently starting, but because of the starting pitching depth in our system, will likely work well to either be included in a package for a bat or converted to a reliever.
ReplyDeleteThose names would be Erik Goedell, Cory Mazzoni, Jacob DeGrom & Domingo Tapia. At this point, this may be a little premature for Goedell, Mazzoni & DeGrom are still doing pretty well as starting pitchers, so I think we can give them another year in Vegas next year to see how they survive the desert. Tapia on thr other hand has been horrendous lately and I think this offseason should be when we start the transition to late inning reliever.
Tapia obviously has the arm strength and should focus on his command of his fastball and arm action of his change up. As a starter he needs atleast three pitches to survive, but as a late inning reliever, his upper 90's fastball with sink and low 90's change up, with a potential slider show me pitch to mix in could prove to be his ticket to the big leagues. I think many of us and scouts alike always pictured Tapia as a reliever, but of course you leave an arm like this in a starting role as long as possible before converting to the pen, but I think now is the time based on his recent performance and like DeGrom & Goedell, we have some big arms that are ahead of them, as well as a few arms behind them that have higher upsides (Thor, Momtero, Fulmer, Matz, Ynoa, Etc.).
Another guy that could be a potential back end arm that is/was starting for us is Luis Mateo. He's currently recovering from elbow surgery that will keep him out of action for awhile, but could potentially be a late inning reliever down the line for us if he too isn't included in a deal for a bat.
In two years time, we will be overloaded with an abundance of both starting pitching options, as well as bullpen arms that will keep us self sufficient on pitching, which in the surface gives management the ability to spend money on offense, if they actually do spend money is another story all together, but atleast puts us in a position to do so.
Btw, if the season ended today, we would be drafting in the 13th slot and our 1st round pick would not be protected. Although, we are only 3.5 games out of the 4th draft slot, so with a typical mets late August/September that we're all used to, we can easily be in the top 10, maybe even top 5, especially if Wright doesnt come back.
me too
ReplyDeleteTapia has had control trouble this year and needs some time...
ReplyDeleteMateo comes highly rated by scouts... he would easily be in Binghamton now if he didn't get injured.
BTW... if all of you wondered... every other team has just as many pitching injuries.
Go ahead... throw a ball as hard as you can 200-300 times a week for 10 years... pitchers get hurt.
Mack another great article and I'm starting to get really excited about next year but it still boggles the mind that in over 50 years we've produced exactly one "he could go into the HOF" everyday player in Strawberry and he had to self destruct. Amos Otis and Ken Singleton had solid careers but only the Straw would make you stop what you were doing to watch him hit.
ReplyDeleteThe mets stopped playing Duda and Tejada and they put a decent outfield on the field which suddenly transformed them into a .500 team. Their pitching has been good, and the youth and energy from Lagaras and EY has made a huge difference.
ReplyDeleteSuddenly, they find themselves in a race for second place and a horrible draft position next June. I'm completely torn on that problem. I firmly believe Sandy will never risk a first round pick by spending on a free agent, but the experience guys like Lagaras and Flores will get this year is invaluable to next season.
This puts a huge task in Sandy's hands next off season to make at least one blockbuster trade to improve the outfield even further. He's going to have to move one of his proven ML starters. One that isn't crucial to their future success. To me, that's Gee or Niese.
They'd get more from Niese, as long as he comes back healthy, but with the way Gee has pitched recently, he's going to become a great chip to have as well. Sandy needs to pry some team's young outfielder away from them and he must deal from his strength to do it.
I'm all for freedom, and I believe that pot and even cocaine should be legal, controlled, and taxed. But that doesn't mean it should be fine to use in the workplace. And to those Libertarians who believe that PEDs are OK in baseball, I would ask why not allow plagiarism for writers, or corporate espionage, or sabotaging your rival's big presentation, or copying your neighbors answers on that big exam? Hell, we should all be completely free, right?
ReplyDeleteMack, I think it is time to stop counting the marbles. We not only have to lose 11 fewer games than the Reds, we have to hope that the Nats and D-Backs also lose more games than us, and that the Cubs, Phils, Rockies Padres and Giants don't go on a hot streak and lose fewer games than we do. Sure, I am still hoping . . but it is a tremendous long shot.
I like your list of bull pen prospects and some of the additions mentioned in the comments. No one seems to have thought about Gorski. He is redeeming himself this year, and could be another lefty for the pen soon. I can't help but get excited thinking not only about our starting rotation but the several bull pen arms in the system. At least some of them should comer through and bolster our pen by next year.
Charley is correct.
ReplyDeleteYou seldom find a team that will trade you an established every day player for just prospects.
It will cost the Mets a package that includes either Niese or Gee