Mack Ade – AM Report – 8-16-13 – FIP, Zack Wheeler, Instant Replay, A-Rod

Elias –

Even in an era of high strikeout totals and precocious prospects, Zack Wheeler's performance against the Padres was noteworthy. Making only his 11th appearance in the majors, Wheeler struck out 12 batters over six innings to earn the victory in the Mets' 4-1 win. Only six other active pitchers recorded at least 12 strikeouts in one of their first 12 games, and it's an impressive group: Oliver Perez, Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Minor, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Hall of Famers who announced their arrivals that way were Bob Feller (1936), Sandy Koufax (1955), Juan Marichal (1960), and Nolan Ryan (1968).

Mack – It sure seems like Wheeler is getting stronger every game. He’s literally forgot how to walk anyone and he’s starting to show why scouts had him projected ahead of Matt Harvey when they were both at the same point of their career. What’s even more scary is the fact that Noah Syndergaard is projected even higher. It’s going to take the second half of 2014 to get these three guys in sync but it’s going to be amazing when they are all 1-2-3 in the 2015 rotation.

 

Would someone try and explain to me why having guys like Alfonso Soriano on your roster is a bad thing? Is carrying your team on your back, during a pennant race, something wrong for someone this age? A lot of you don’t like my 2-year, 3^rd-year team option idea for Carlos Beltran, but if he can stay healthy and hit 25-85, is this a bad thing?

 

Gonzalez Germen –

                A 2.60 ERA and 2.70 FIP in 17.1 innings in 2013

(From BP - Fielding Independent Pitching converts a pitcher's three true outcomes into an earned run average-like number. The formula is (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP, plus a constant (usually around 3.2) to put it on the same scale as earned run average.

FIP is a component ERA inspired by the work of Voros McCracken on defense-indepdendent pitching statistics, but has become more widely used because of the ease of computation - it requires only four easily-found box score stats, uses only basic arithmetic operations and has four easily-memorized constants. It was conceived of by both Tom Tango and Clay Dreslough, the latter of who called it Defense-Independent Component ERA.

At Prospectus, we are including hit batters in the walks term. The constant we use is both league and season specific - in other words, a pitcher in the American League will have a different FIP constant than a pitcher in the National League. This differs from the presentation of FIP on sites such as Fangraphs, which use one constant for both leagues in each season.

Here is an example of the Fielding Independent Pitching spectrum based on the 2011 season:

Excellent - Roy Halladay 2.17 (2013 Gonzalez Germen – 2.70)

                                Great - David Price 3.36

 Average - Tim Stauffer 4.00

 Poor - Carlos Zambrano 4.56

 Horrendous - Bronson Arroyo 5.68

 

Bernie Pleskoff –

For Mets management and the team's fans, it is important to note that as good as Zack Wheeler is now, he isn't a finished product. Wheeler has a very solid 3.63 ERA with a respectable 1.386 WHIP in 57 innings. His changeup is probably not fully developed as an alternative off-speed pitch to complement his fastballs. Once that pitch receives a more prominent place in his repertoire, Wheeler will be even tougher to hit. My second look at Wheeler showed a maturing, confident young starting pitcher who will be joining Matt Harvey as a potential top-of-the-rotation tandem for years to come. Mets fans can look forward to Wheeler consistently keeping his team in the game and giving them a chance to win. When it's all said and done, that's what really matters most. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130815&content_id=56993232&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&tcid=tw_article_56993232

 

Eric asked –

                Mack, what’s your opinion about the shift in baseball’s policy on instant replay?

                                Mack – Thanks for the question, Eric.

I want baseball to be accurate, but, at the same time, I’m an old school person that believes the game should be played on the field, not on some tape recorder or adding machine. Umpires are human (thanks dude for that called strike three on Lagares the other night…), and some get a hard-on for certain teams, players, and managers, but I truly believe all the mistakes balance out over a 162-season.

Other sports have gone in this direction (will TC have to throw a knotted up towel onto the field like football does) and the three challenge system seems fair, but I would like baseball to consider including the announcers in the respective booths as being one of the sources information would help determine the final decision. There seems to be enough money in this game to offer a job to 30 more people, one per home stadium, to be the ‘official’ mother ship that all the information is fed to once a challenge goes up. The umpires can come to a designated area behind the plate to talk to this guy, watch the video, and either listen to or confidentially discuss with broadcast teams what their opinion is on this particular play.

The one major downside is that a slow sport will just get slower and the last thing you want is your pitcher standing around on the mound waiting for the ship to come in. They say the process will take around a minute. We’ll see.

The important thing about challenging or instant play is that the final product is 100% accurate.

 

Michael Radutzky -

"60 Minutes" has learned that members of New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez's inner circle in February obtained and leaked documents that implicated Milwaukee Brewers slugger Ryan Braun as well as his own Yankees teammate, catcher Francisco Cervelli, in the doping scandal that has enveloped Major League Baseball.”

Mack – Why doesn’t every single American League team send a message to this prick by throwing at his head with the first pitch on the first at bat A-Rod has each game. You could even plan ahead here for the ejection by having one of relief pitchers throw the pitch. Judging from what was done to Cervelli here, I don’t think there’s any risk of a brawl.

If this is true, it is a violation of the collective bargaining agreement and you can throw out the 211 game suspension and replace it with a lifetime ban. As Nike once said, just do it so we can move on from this creep.