We’ve reached the seemingly annual rite of passage where the
point in the season has come when you have to decide if you are buyers or
sellers. The previous two years the club
was most definitely sellers of expiring contracts, though they seemed inclined
to give away the players for any warm body who would cost them significantly
less rather than actually insisting on someone of quality be returned for the
outgoing quality.
What we’ve seen in the past several seasons in the
inevitable half-measures where you made just enough transactions to appear to
be doing something of significance but never quite jumping into the deep end of
the pool. Part of that has to do with an
unwillingness to spend, part of it has to do with remarkably bad drafting and
part of it squarely belongs on the incompetence of the front office.
The fallacy that you can’t rebuild in New York is accepted
without any rational questioning of it.
How many people would rather have seen 2 really bad years in exchange
for 7 competitive ones vs. 2 competitive ones and 7 water torture
mediocrities?
Let’s start with a blank page. If you are in charge of the Mets right now,
what would you do to try to turn things around for 2020 and beyond?
This admittedly small group is the core around which you
build for the future. It would include
Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil. Some might even argue that Diaz is hardly untouchable,
but as porous as the bullpen has been, you need to start somewhere and he’s
still earning very little money for what (until lately) is more often good performance than
bad. Can you make the case for anyone
else?
Zack Wheeler is enigmatic in that he can put together a
brilliant start followed immediately by a clunker. He’s surely not showing the consistency he
did in 2018, but he’s young enough and apparently healthy enough that there
should be a long line of prospective takers for the free-agent-to-be.
Jason Vargas is having something of a career renaissance
late into his Mets’ tenure. While the
club could make the case to pick up his option for next year at an incremental
cost of just $6 million over what it would cost to show him the door, the fact
is you don’t build for the future around 37 year old pitchers.
Todd Frazier is also late into his Mets career finally
shaking the rust off his two consecutive .213 seasons. Sell high!
His contract expires at year’s end and you’re not going to make him a
QO, so what’s the point of hanging onto him?
Juan Lagares is a sunk cost.
Pay down nearly his entire salary in the hopes you can get someone to
part with a wildcard type prospect.
Seth Lugo is an interesting choice. When he’s good, he’s very good, but his arm
seems to be held together with some combination of Scotch Tape and Gorilla
Glue. Despite his recent meltdown, I’d
certainly be tempted to sell high on him if another club is willing to assume
the health risk.
What about Dominic Smith? Yes, he
appears to have turned the corner on his development but there’s a 27 HR
monster at 1st base who now owns that position. Smith is demonstrating he’s available if not
capable of playing the outfield, so he’s better off used as a trade chip to a
team in need of either a 1st baseman or a DH.
Amed Rosario is not showing himself to be the defensive whiz
we were led to believe he was. Uber
prospect Andres Gimenez appeared to be next in line until he hit the offensive
wall this year. Ronny Mauricio may
leapfrog him yet on the SS depth chart.
There’s been some talk of shifting Rosario to CF, so obviously the
powers that be are not sold on him as a long term solution either.
Noah Syndergaard is another pitcher, like Lugo, who seems to
have a devil of a time staying healthy.
In his case, throwing 100 MPH can only exacerbate that situation. Still, his gaudy strikeout numbers will stand
out and he, like Smith, may be more valuable to the club as a trade chip than
as a long term member of the rotation.
Steven Matz continues to be an enigma. He shows flashes of brilliance then gets
rattled by a bad call or a few bleeder hits.
His own health has been fragile to say the least, so he doesn’t
necessarily seem like a good long-term bet either, but other clubs will see
what we’ve seen and you may wind up with him on your roster by default.
Wilson Ramos is proving as a catcher to be a decent hitter,
but already Jacob deGrom is asking for and mostly receiving a more adept
batterymate with a balsa wood bat on the days that he starts. He’s on the hook to the Mets for one more
year at modest money, so he could be traded but what would it accomplish? The Mets are not exactly flush with catching
talent at the upper levels of the minors ready to step in and take over.
The first on the list, of course, is Robinson Cano. He’s yet to demonstrate that his 2019 results
are neither an inevitable age-related decline or what happens after they start
screening you more closely for banned substances. Get used to him, folks…he’s here until after
age 40.
Brandon Nimmo is having a much more serious health issue
than was initially suspected. No one is
going to offer much of anything until he’s back on the field again. Consequently his roster spot is safe.
Unless the Mets can get a good (read expensive) lawyer to
void Yoenis Cespedes’ contract for sustaining a non-baseball injury, his roster
spot for 2020 is also solid. Who but the
Mets would pay him $29.5 million?
Finally there’s the guy in witness protection, Jed
Lowrie. He has yet to play a game for the
Mets yet they’re obligated to pay him another $10 million again next year as
well.
So you have five core players and four untradeables if you
were to start over again. That’s 16
roster spots to fill if you did not seek to retain any of the fringe
players. A few of them like Lugo, Smith
and Syndergaard could go a long way towards restoring long term viability. The rest, meh…not so much.
Who are your keepers?
