Mike Freire - ALDS Preview and Prediction

Good Morning, Mets' fans.

In a previous article, I posted the 2019 MLB playoff field and I also explained how I prefer to break the different matchups down (refer to the same if you have any questions about what the factors listed below mean).  I will attempt to do so as the playoffs move along, while also predicting who I think will ultimately win each series the rest of the way.

So, let's take a look at the second half of the ALDS Round with Minnesota traveling to New York to face the Yankees.

Friday, October 4th @ 1907 HRS (Game One - Best of Five)

Minnesota Twins (101-61) versus New York Yankees (103-59) 

 Jose Berrios                                   James Paxton

1. LAST 30 - Minnesota (20-10), New York (19-11)

2. RUN DIFF - Minnesota (+3), New York (+3)

3. FUNDAMENTALS (all);

 a. DEFENSE - Minnesota (.981%, 111 E), New York (.983%, 95 E)

 b. BASERUNNING - Minnesota (28 SB, 70 SBA), New York (55 SB, 63 SBA)

 c. BULLPEN - Minnesota (49/69 SV = 71%), New York (50/78 SV = 64%)

4. ROAD % - Minnesota (55-26), New York (46-35)

5.  HEAD 2 HEAD:

New York won the season series between these two ball clubs winning four out of the six contests (two out of three in both locations.  However, the teams have not seen each other since the middle of July.

ANALYSIS/PICK:

Well, I will be the first to admit that I didn't realize how good the Twins have been this season.  Yes, there is an East Coast "bias" within the media, so no one was surprised that the Yankees won 103 games during the regular season.  

BUT, the Twins were only two games off of that pace with 101 regular season wins.  Plus, the Twins and Yankees were first and second in all of MLB for team home runs, so both clubs and flex their muscles and put some runs on the board (neither club does much on the base paths, so they are both "American League" style offenses).

The proverbial 800 pound gorilla in the room from the Yankees perspective is "do they have a enough pitching"?  GM Brian Cashman dismissed their lack of action at the trading deadline, citing the fact that the team didn't need any outside additions since Luis Severino was due back off the DL.  Not that I know better, but that sounded like he was covering up a bit after getting scooped by the Mets for Marcus Stroman.  

In any event, they have since lost some additional pitching options (German), so it is a fair question to ask and could be their ultimate downfall this year. 

The Twins seem to have a deeper roster when it comes to starting pitching, but may not have the "big names" outside of Jose Berrios.  I like their staff a bit more then what the diminished Yankees' staff looks like.  The Twins also have a bit more of an effective bullpen (see above), so that could be a factor late in close games.  

Don't ignore the fact that the Twins have been "dominant" on the road this year (56 wins), so the Yankees "home field" advantage might not be a factor when all is said and done.

I think this series will be extremely entertaining and I think it will go the distance.  With Game Five in New York, the Twins "road warrior" mindset will allow them pull the upset here and move onto the ALCS.