PIITBlog by JD- Mets Vs. Braves Series Playoff Implications

Both the Mets and the Braves had an off day yesterday (9/29) as they head into a battle tonight that has major playoff implications. If you are anything like me, you may have woken up in a panic several times last night going over playoff scenarios. That said, let’s break down how each game could impact the Mets and their quest for their first NL East title since 2015. As it stands today, the Mets are 98-58, while the Braves sit 1 game back at 97-59.

Scenario 1: The Mets Sweep (3-0)

• Let’s start with the fun one. If the Mets sweep the Braves this weekend the division is clinched. The Mets are currently 1 game up on the Braves for the division lead. However, they have the tie breaker so you can think of it as a 1.5 game lead. Should the Mets take all 3 games this weekend that puts the Mets up 4 games with 3 left to play. In this scenario, the Braves could go sweep the Marlins and the Mets could get swept by Washington and the Mets still win the division. Buck and the boys are giving it their all to make that happen this weekend putting out Degrom, Max, and Bassitt. 

Scenario 2: The Mets win the series (2-1)

• Taking 2 of 3 from the Braves puts the Mets in a very favorable position to win the division. Winning 2 of 3 puts the Mets at 100-59 (I know, 100 wins right?!) and the Braves at 98-61. The Mets would come out of the series with a 2 game lead on the division with 3 left to play. In this scenario, the Mets would just have to avoid the sweep in Washington to win the division. If the Braves sweep Miami and the Mets take 1 in Washington, they would end the season with the same record which the Mets have the tiebreaker for (tiebreaker explained below).

Scenario 3: The Mets lose the series (1-2)

• Taking only 1 of 3 from the Braves would be disappointing to say the least. This situation is not quite doomsday. Taking 1 game is almost essential to the Mets winning the division because it clinches the season series at 10-9. Only taking 1 game puts the Mets in a tie record wise going into the series with Washington. In all these scenarios, but especially this one, losing 2 of 3 truly puts the Mets destiny in their own hands. If both the Mets and Braves go on to have the same record versus their respective opponents next week the Mets would clinch the division on the tie breaker.

Scenario 4: The Mets get swept (0-3)

• This is truly the doomsday scenario I mentioned earlier. Getting swept by Atlanta would put the Mets down 2 games heading into the series with Washington. This means the division is, for the first time, out of the Mets control as the Marlins would have to play spoiler and beat the Braves at least 2 of 3. Should the Braves get swept, the Mets have to go 2-1 vs. Washington. If the Braves go 1-2 the Mets would have to sweep. 

 

*As an interesting side note*: Buck pushing up Degrom’s start to tonight puts him on regular rest to start the last game of the season next Wednesday should that game matter. This is worth noting as this would take Jake out of the Wild Card series entirely should the Mets be in it.

Maybe I am getting greedy but as far as this team has come this year, I will be extremely disappointed if they can’t get over this last hump and win the division. It’s theirs to win or lose. LFGM.

 

 

 

2023 Draft Prospect - RHP - Noble Meyer

Noble Meyer 

RHP Jesuit HS

 

9-9-22 - 2023 OVERALL RANKINGS UPDATE 

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/2023-Overall-Rankings-Update-7531924608?s=03  

RHP Noble Meyer (Jesuit HS, OR), an Oregon recruit, has emerged as the top right-handed arm in the class. Featured prominently in Arms Race: Pacific Northwest from last spring, the wiry, long-limbed 6-foot-5, 200-pounder has steadily matured on the mound as the pure stuff has made an electric leap. Now equipped with a fastball that reaches into the upper 90s along with feel for a potential wipeout slider with 3000+ rpm and a faded changeup, Meyer’s confidence has grown to new heights, and there is a strong chance that he is ultimately the first pitcher taken off the board next summer.

 

9-7-22 -  Top 20 high school prospects for '23 Draft

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-high-school-draft-prospects-2023 - 

8. Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS (Ore.)

Hailing from the same high school as former first-rounder and current Phillies pitching prospect Mick Abel, Meyer is another lanky 6-foot-5 right-hander with tons of projection and really good stuff. He’s already added velocity to his fastball, touching as high as 98 mph, and he combines that with a mid-80s slider that misses a ton of bats. 

 

8-3-2022 -

Ranking the Top 30 2023 MLB Draft Prospects - 

https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/baseball/mlb/20220803-2023-mlb-mock-draft-ranking-the-top-30-2023-mlb-draft-prospects - 

11. Rockies: Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS (Portland, OR) 

Meyer can throw 98 mph and has a weird arm angle when he throws, making it tough for hitters to time him. He's also developing off-speed stuff and has a lanky frame that could be lethal at the big league level. 

 

7-28-22 -

2023 MLB DRAFT - TOP 150 PROSPECTS -

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects - 

14. Noble Meyer

Right-Handed Pitcher, Jesuit 

Jesuit HS in Portland, Oregon has become a total pitching factory. From Mick Abel to Nelson Keljo, Jesuit has a knack for developing arms. Meyer burst onto the scene during the 2022 showcase circuit with a fastball up to 98 featuring arm-side run and some ride. It's a deceptive slot that's tough to pick up too. His slider works into the mid-80s with sweeping action and short vertical tilt. Meyer offers a mid-80s changeup that lags behind his other two weapons, but shows enough promise for scouts to slap a future 50 grade on the off-speed offering. Meyer is also an impressive athlete coming from a 6-foot-5, long, lanky frame. He checks a lot of boxes.

Mack - Prospect Report

9-24-22 - New Balance @ftrstarsseries 

Georgia 2023 RHP Jeffrey ‘Mac’ Heuer (@jeffreyMacHeuer) locating heavy 91-94 mph velocity and keeping hitters guessing with a 79-81 mph slider during our NB Baseball  Main Event. TTU Baseball commit https://t.co/e57WmMOwjA 

 

9-24-22 - New Balance @ftrstarsseries 

Georgia 2023 RHP Luke McNeillie (@LukeMcneillie) looking sharp on the mound locating 90-94 mph velocity while flashing a 75-79 mph breaking ball during our NB Baseball  Main Event. Gators commit    https://t.co/gHwRTDh41w 

 

9-24-22 - JT18 @JamieTessoff 

2023 Hunter Carns   FSU 

The C loads up and shows off a line drive G/G approach here in Daytona. Quick to the ball with a long barrel path with big time bat speed

 

9-19-22 - Top 20 college prospects for '23 Draft -

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/top-college-prospects-for-2023-mlb-draft.html - 

3. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi

Gonzalez's numbers dipped as a sophomore, though he still batted .273/.405/.558 with 18 homers and more walks than strikeouts, and he accounted for all three of Mississippi's runs in the CWS clincher to give the Rebels their first national championship. He has at least average big league power, controls the strike zone and has the athleticism and arm strength to remain at shortstop. 

 

9-7-22 - https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-mock-draft-n78w7-st9r4-wa35p-2n5ls-8addg - 

1. Kansas City Royals

Dylan Crews, Outfield, LSU 

The No. 1 pick, for our money, at this stage, comes down to Crews and Tennessee righty Chase Dollander. It really depends on your what your favorite flavored philosophy is. Dollander projects a top-of-the-rotation horse, though Crews has the potential to be a middle-of-the-order slugger with the potential to play a plus right field. In this case, we’re taking the 5-tool guy that can play every single day. Crews has the pedigree to move quickly through the Royals system and could handle right field for the better part of a decade in KC. 

 

9-19-22 - 9-19-22 - Florida Paces Nation with Three Top-20 College Prospects - https://floridagators.com/news/2022/9/20/baseball-florida-paces-nation-with-three-top-20-college-prospects - 

RHP Brandon Sproat 

Back in Gator Country for a fourth campaign, Sproat collected Southeast All-Region Second Team honors in 2022 after pitching to a 9-4 record and 3.43 ERA across 89 2/3 frames. Hailing from Pace, Fla., Sproat was tremendous for the Gators down the stretch, going 5-0 with a 1.59 ERA and .218 batting average against in his last six starts of the season. The right-hander wields a 3.92 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 117 1/3 career innings. 

 

9-9-22 - 2023 OVERALL RANKINGS UPDATE

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/2023-Overall-Rankings-Update-7531924608?s=03  

BARRETT KENT RHP / 3B / POTTSBORO, TX / 2023

Rankings  STATERANK: 3 / POS: 2 OVERALLRANK: 26 / POS: 5

Somewhat hidden in the large shadow cast by the triple digit heat of Travis Sykora, Kent doesn’t hold quite as much arm talent yet (93-95 in August), but it comes out so easy right now, that he someday might. The imposing, 6-foot-4, 200-pounder is an easy mover down the mound with the ability to spot the fastball to all four quadrants. He looks the part of a future starter, and that moniker is sure to be imprinted on the minds of scouts as they head out to see him next spring. Look for the Arkansas recruit to light up radar guns with his effortless stuff, and potentially move his way into Day 1 consideration. 

 

9-7-22 -  Top 20 high school prospects for '23 Draft

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-high-school-draft-prospects-2023 - 

12. Eric Bitonti, INF, Aquinas HS (Calif.)

Bitonti is a 6-foot-4 left-handed-hitting infielder who showed the ability to impact the baseball all summer, with a good approach at the plate and plenty of power to come. He probably moves to third in the future, but has moved very well for his size at shortstop.

Reese Kaplan - Who Will Be Surprise Contributors to Push Mets Forward and Over the Top?

During Wednesday's dramatic come-from-behind victory against the Marlins it was almost too exciting to isolate any one thing to make you feel good about the New York Mets.  

There was the strikeout pitching of Taijuan Walker, the three-up and three-down striking out of the side by Edwin Diaz, and the almost unfathomable five-RBI night from Eduardo Escobar's final three at-bats to catch up, tie and win the game.  

Throw in the fact that the Washington Nationals managed to hang on to defeat the Atlanta Braves to make the shocking and unexpected Mets win that much sweeter.

During the game while Ron Darling and Gary Cohen were referring to the recent impressive play of Tomas Nido and his thunderous September bat, they asked a seemingly simple yet profound question.  

While everyone fully expects great pitching from the top trio of starting pitchers, shutdown closing of the door by Edwin Diaz, and run production from the formidable bats of Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Jeff McNeil and others, who might turn out to be the surprise contributors who could push the Mets forward and over the top?

Now volunteering Tomas Nido was a good place to start.  During his parts of six years in a Mets uniform he actually holds a negative WAR of -0.6 which calculates how much below average he has been.  Consequently, seeing him hitting well over .300 this past month and driving his batting average up over .240 is indeed a demonstration of the unexpected hero.  

Perhaps on an even more obvious and grander scale is the late season resurgence of Eduardo Ecobar.  Obviously he's had a horrific 2022 season after signing as a free agent with the Mets.  Despite the poor adjustment to being on baseball's biggest stage, no one has accused him of dogging it nor having his head in the game.  

His smile rivals Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor for the biggest on the team.  He's also hitting well over .300 while adding both home runs and RBIs to the mix thus making him an unlikely positive contributor.  

Other players who have been solid during the season like Seth Lugo, Adam Ottavino, Carlos Carrasco and many of the hitters like Daniel Vogelbach have been struggling to help the club secure victories.  Luis Guillorme (after a solid offensive season) has fought injuries and execution at the plate.  

Yes, he's still making pitchers work very hard to get him out, but his average is down from the .300 range to .275 with just 15 RBIs for his entire year which incorporates 284 ABs.  That means he's on a less than 30 RBI pace for the 2022 regular season. 

Then there are others who have struggled from the get-go like Darin Ruf, Tyler Naquin, James McCann, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos who have not delivered what the club was hoping to get from them.  

Now in the case of the two rookies, they're adjusting to a new level of pitching while being under the microscope of New York media and undoubtedly need some time to make the evolution into major league capable ballplayers.  The others, however, are veterans who cannot hold their heads up and feel proud of their offensive contributions.  

Some folks are proponents of the philosophy of "Go big or go home!"  With the AAA season now over, the Mets have set up a taxi squad of players who have been performing in Syracuse like Dom Smith, Francisco Alvarez and others.  

The impatient folks who feel new faces coming off hot seasons are better than the veterans who are here cashing checks but not earning them.  They of course dismiss the early struggles of Baty and Vientos as somehow not representative of what can happen to a newcomer thrust into the spotlight with no room for failure.  

Others are perhaps overly indulgent in the long track records of the folks who are not delivering, feeling that their collective experience is worth perhaps more than current output.  They feel that guys who contributed solid numbers when it didn't matter will somehow reach down into their inner baseball DNA to embrace the final push towards October baseball and hopefully an entry into the World Series.

Like most extreme viewpoints in sports and in life, the truth lies somewhere in between.  It's entirely possible you will see some over-the-top performances from players who have not done as much as had been hoped when they were brought on board to be a part of the winning formula.  

What would happen, for example, if Vogelbach was able to resurrect his 30-HR power?  What if James McCann figured out how he was for the White Sox when in two seasons he combined for a one-year total of 25 HRs, 76 RBIs and hit .276?  What if Starling Marte does not come back at star level capacity from his finger recovery and you are forced into a committee of replacement bats trying to replicate his .292/16/63 stat line to go along with 18 stolen bases?

The challenge for Buck Showalter is not to create a team filled with high-priced veterans capable of steamrolling over other teams with their bats, arms and gloves.  No, the real issue right now is more like the old Billy Martin days of somehow motivating the less renowned players to perform at their best at the time when it's needed most.  

Let's not take anything away from the club that at the 11th hour completed an awesome comeback against the Marlins.  Instead, let's figure out who you least expected can emerge into the spotlight with the type of ball they have within themselves to make the dream of October winning baseball come to fruition.

2023 Draft Prospect - SS - TJ Pompey

 

T. J. Pompey 

SS          Coppell HS (TX) 

 

9-15-22 - PBR Texas @PBR_Texas 

2023 SS TJ Pompey (@Tpompey_Jr) 

The Texas Tech commit is one of the best defenders in the state, and shows power potential

 

9-6-22 - UPDATED 2023 TEXAS PLAYER RANKINGS

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/TX/Updated-2023-Texas-Player-Rankings-7591230864  

#8 T.J. Pompey - SS - Coppell - Texas Tech Commit 

The athletic SS from Coppell is one of the best defenders in the state regardless of position.  He is an easy  mover on the dirt showing elite lateral quickness and range.  He has more than enough arm to make any throw from short, topping out at 93 this spring on the mound.  Pompey made some adjustments in the swing, and really started to get into his power more this summer. His frame still has some big   He ended the summer with a very good performance in San Diego at the Area Code Games.  

Paul Articulates – Are the Mets pitchers as good as we think?

As the Mets head into a pivotal series with the Atlanta Braves to determine the NL East leader, Mets fans are confident that the team holds an advantage with their stellar pitching staff.  This was the ace in the hole that if healthy, the staff could be the difference maker in this series and in the playoffs.

I have written with confidence that this Mets team - this Mets staff - was going to tilt important contests in our favor.  I’m worried.

After the Mets won 3 of 4 against the NL-best Dodgers in their late August series, they were faced with the most favorable remaining schedule of all playoff teams.  “Don’t worry about those hard-charging Braves”, we said, “we are going to load up against the bad teams.”  Well, it didn’t happen.  The Mets went 9-7 over 16 games against the lowly Nationals, Pirates, Marlins, and Cubs.  The Mets pitching gave up 61 runs, including 43 in the losses to teams batting a combined .235.  How can this happen for a staff that has a 3.58 ERA, third in the NL?

During that stretch and continuing through last night, we have seen another Max Scherzer stint on the IL due to “fatigue on his left side”, a very human performance from Jacob deGrom, declining performance from Carlos Carrasco, and a revolving door in the bullpen.  Here is some information to consider:

• Max Scherzer has only thrown 17 innings in September.  They have been very effective (1.06 ERA), but because of his health, most of his outings have required multiple bullpen innings to complete the game.  The bullpen has a 4.14 ERA over the month of September.
• Carlos Carrasco has a 4.15 ERA over the month, with an opponent batting average of .284.  In his losses, he has been lit up in the early innings.
• Taijuan Walker has a 5.11 ERA since the all-star break with a 1.35 WHIP over 56 1/3 innings.  In the first half, he had a 2.55 ERA over 91 innings with a 1.09 WHIP.
• Jacob deGrom came back strong from his long hiatus on the injured list, but as he has slowly built up his pitch count, the last inning always seems to be his undoing, quickly disintegrating from spectacular to hittable.  His last start in Oakland saw him tagged for 6 hits and 5 earned runs in 4 innings against a squad that has scored the 2nd least runs in baseball this year.
• A long list of pitchers has moved through the bullpen without making a mark – Tommy Hunter, Alex Claudio, Stephen Nogosek, Rob Zastryzny, Yoan Lopez, Sam Clay, Nate Fisher, and Bryce Montez de Oca have all thrown innings since mid-July without evidence that they should be on the post-season roster.  David Peterson and Tylor Megill, both used as starters earlier in the season are hopefuls for filling relief roles now and in October, but they have failed to string together effective outings out of the pen.

That is a scary list of facts for a pitching staff that was hailed as the strength of the roster.  This was the neutralizer of potent offenses in those cold fall days when the ball doesn’t fly as far and fingers hurt when hitters get jammed.  This is the staff that should have posted a 1.5 ERA against that segment of games against ineffective teams and won better than 80% of those games.  They should not be degrading from overwork - Buck has done a great job at preserving arms, with no starter exceeding 180 innings and the only reliever over 80 innings has been long man Trevor Williams with 83.

There is still hope in short series like the upcoming Braves series and a hopefully-not wildcard three-game series.  But in a five or seven game series where you need a fourth starter, can Carrasco or Walker rise to the occasion?  Can the middle relievers hold a lead until trumpet time when a high-pitch count starter has to leave after five innings?  The answer to these questions will determine the Mets’ fate in this so-far-exceptional season. 

Tom Brennan - Huge Win; Playoffs Begin; The "Plunking" Problem; Alvarez

THE METS' ARNOLD CAN'T SHAKE THE "T2" BRAVES - OR CAN HE?

STUNNING LATE GAME METS RALLY FROM 4-0:

SEPT. PLAYER OF THE UNIVERSE EDUARDO ESCOBAR DRIVES IN ALL 5 RUNS IN 5-4 WIN.

8 HRs, 24 RBIs, .330 FOR THE E.E. IN SEPT! 

METS PITCHERS FAN 18 MARLINS!

BRAVES LOSE TO NATS!  METS 1 GAME UP!

Now, catch your breath, on to rest of article.

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION:

Cleveland, with ex-Mets Amed Rosario and (.303) Andres Gimenez, clinched their division on Sunday.  

It is amazing how a team's division can make-or-break them.  The Guardians are in the very weak AL Central, and for this final year, each team plays 45% of its games "in-division".  Thru Sunday, Cleveland was 16 over .500 in their division, just 3 over .500 outside of it.  If they were in the NL East, my guess is they'd be 4th, behind Philly.

Still, they've made it in, and congratulations to them.  Being the 3rd seed, they do not get a bye, and presumably play the weakest wild card team.

Next year, the "crappy division opponent advantage" will be greatly reduced by much-needed rescheduling improvements.  45% of games in division will become just 30%.  To succeed, the Guardians will have to get better, or this will be a one-season visit to the playoffs.

TERMINATOR T2:

I loved the movie Terminator 2 when it came out; the good guys just couldn't shake that T2 machine, no matter what they did.  Finally at the end, the good guys prevailed.  As the Mets did last night to go 1 up.

That Terminator flick feels like the Mets and Braves.  The Braves keep getting derailed, only to relentlessly come right back.  And, sadly, Jake deGrom has been no Sarah Connor.  Sarah got it done.  

Jake has his big chance to have the final say this weekend by proving he is GOAT and the Braves belong in a moat.  To me, Max is GOAT, but that is just how I see it.  Jake has too much lamb in him to be a GOAT - more on that below.

PLAYOFFS START THIS FRIDAY:

The rules state that the playoffs start after 162 games.  This Mets-Braves weekend, though, is every bit as much "the playoffs" as are the the playoffs themselves.  

It is also Ali v. Frazier. Mets are Ali, just depends which of the A v. F fights happens here.  Will Ali win...or get pummeled by relentless Joe.

(Perhaps they start tonight, instead, to avoid devastating Hurricane Ian?)

"MANY" CAN SOMETIMES BE ONE TOO MANY:

As disappointed as I am in Jake's failure to clutch the throat of severely sub-.500 teams and win those 4 starts this month (instead, just 1-2, and a ND), the Mets have been badly impacted by setting a dubious record this season: 

HIT BY PITCH

One of them, in particular, was one too many: 

Starling Marte and his broken-by-HBP finger.  You see, Starling was a total rock star after a cold April, hitting .307 from May 1 on.  He made the Mets lineup formidable. Then the HBP and fractured digit.

I blame Buck - and Jake.  This Mets team should have had their pitchers retaliate forcefully, to let other teams know our hitters are not pinatas or pin cushions.  Also on Jake again (no, this is not Pick On Jake Day, stay with me here).  Why?  

Well, Gentleman Jake has hit NO batters in 58.1 IP.  Why not?  He gave up two big HRs recently - are hitters too comfortable settling into the box against Jake, knowing he just doesn't plunk?  Just 21 plunks in 1320 career innings, which, broken out over his many seasons, works out to be about 3 per full season.

Max in 2022 has nailed 11 in 139.2 IP, Bassitt 12 in 179 IP.  Walker? Just 6 in 148 IP (not enough HBP either, pal).  

Meanwhile, the Mets have been nailed once every 12.5 at bats, an astonishing rate.  Problem with HBP is...bones can break.  So you need your pitchers to send statements as frequently as needed...you put our great hitters in jeopardy, intentional or not, we will reply in kind.  

And that is heavily on Buck.  Retaliation is essential to sending a message on HBP.  Mets' pitchers are -40 (with 70 HBP) - not enough retaliation.  

And NONE from Gentleman Jake, who leaves the dirty work to others.  

It cost them Marte - the Star.  Just when he was hot and vitally needed for the stretch run.  They were extremely fortunate that it did not cost them Alonso and Francisco (you know, the guys with 234 RBIs, which in most Mets seasons in their history took them 4 or 5 guys to compile), when they were hit in their respective noggins.

No biggie, though - the Marte in-game alternatives?  

A whole lot more of Ruf and Naquin than we should have needed to see.

A big deals. And clearly less ability to generate enough offense to win.

The result?  Braves caught up to our heavily plunked guys.

Mets? Plunked 110 times. 

Rangers just 46 times, Dodgers 53 times, Braves 63 times.  

Ouch!  HBP Matters.

By the way, career-wise?  

Gentleman Jake has plunked a scant 21 batters in 1,320 career innings - one every 63 IP.  Max has twice the career innings (2,676) and has nailed 107 hitters (2.5X Jake's rate - i.e., 5 times as many HBPs in just twice as many innings).  

Max, I surmise, shrewdly knows it worked for big-winning intimidators like Don Drysdale and Bob Gibson, and so Scherzer employs the HBP in his tool chest, to "keep hitters uncomfortable".  

Jake (in my opinion, and to his detriment) does not.  It shows up, as I see it, in Max's far superior win % after his first few seasons than Jake's career win %.  But that is just me speculating.  Or is it?

As I see it, if hitters know they might get hit by 100 MPH nastiness, they are less apt to crowd the plate, and more vulnerable to outside corner FBs and sliders.  Sounds like a winning approach to me.  

It just requires one thing: JAKE TO BE BE LESS OF A GENTLEMAN.  

Good for your win % - and for your at-risk teammates, like Marte.

ELIGIBILITY NEWS

Per the NY Post:

“…it will be curious to see whether manager Buck Showalter opts for Ruf or Vientos.  If neither steps forward, the Mets could give an audition to Francisco Alvarez, hitting well at Triple-A (the Mets had players who met MLB’s injury criteria, and thus, Alvarez would be eligible for the postseason roster)...”

PROSPECT PLAUDITS

BRYCE MONTES DE OCA: Last 2 AAA outings, 3 innings, 7 Ks, no runs. A NO-doubter for the Mets’ 2023 pen.

Francisco Alvarez: in game 1 of a DH Wednesday night, the aforementioned Alvarez had 2 hits, and 2 walks.  He's just 2 good. 

Despite his highly observed early AAA slump, his AAA line now includes a .382 OBP. 

AND.362/.483/.596 in Sept.  So...should it be Ruf...Vientos...or Alvarez?

HE’s just 2 good.

2023 Draft Prospect - LHP - RJ Cope

 

R J Cope 

LHP      6-6

 

9-8-22 - Jheremy Brown @JBrownPG 

This was my first in person look of the summer at 6-6 LHP RJ Cope & hard not to be impressed. 

Athletic operation & ball jumped out of hand, up to 88 mph w/ plenty more in the tank. Simple delivery given size, feel for spin. Played up an age level or 2 entire summer.

2023 Draft - Top 10 RHPs RIGHT NOW

It’s time to kick off the position ranking for the 2023 draft. 

I currently have a limited amount of info in my database, so I will start with the top 10 for right hand pitchers and outfielders and top 5 (or less) for the other positions. 

We start out with the righties which seems to be at level of talent exceeding lthe last draft. Right now, there are around seven to eight of them projected in the first round. 

The top 10,  and a blurb about each, are here:

 

1. Chase Dollinger 

While there's some debate about the top position player in the college class, Dollander is clearly the best pitcher. In his first season at Tennessee after transferring from Georgia Southern, he captured SEC pitcher of the year honors by going 10-0 with a 2.39 ERA and a 108/13 K/BB ratio in 79 innings. He throws strikes with four pitches, the best of which are a mid-90s fastball that reaches 99 mph with carry and a mid-80s slider that touches 91.

 

2. Will Sanders 

The 6-foot-6 right-hander already has really good stuff with the chance for more in the tank as he continues to fill out that frame. He’s already up to 96 mph with his fastball, misses a ton of bats with an 82-84 mph slider and has solid feel for his mid-80s changeup.

 

3. Hurston Waldrep 

Waldrep made a very strong transition to the Southern Miss rotation in 2022, striking out 14 batters per nine innings while walking 3.3. He’s bringing his mid-90s fastball (up to 98), a hard slider up to 90 mph, an occasional slower curve and a mid-80s changeup. He misses a ton of bats with all of his secondary stuff.

 

4. Paul Skenes 

Paul Skenes has been one of the most productive players in college baseball over the past two seasons. While Skenes has transferred to LSU for the upcoming season, he attended Air Force over the past two years. He won the Mountain West Freshman of the Year award in 2019 and was selected to an All-American team in both his collegiate seasons. He also won the John Olerud Award in 2022, which goes to the best two-way player in NCAA baseball. 

Skenes has hit .367/.453/.669 with 24 home runs in 402 career NCAA plate appearances with 43 walks and 85 strikeouts. He has seen playing time at catcher, first base, and left field, although most of his appearances in the lineup were as a designated hitter. Listed at 6'6''-235 pounds, Skenes has the potential to be an excellent right-handed power hitter at the next level.

 

5. Cade Kuechler 

Kuehler developed extremely quickly upon arriving to Campbell. He's got a super-quick arm and natural deception that's been hell on the opposition. The fastball is already up into the upper-90s with top of the scale ride. He's really dialed in a slider/cutter that flash plus when he's got feel for it. Kuehler will need to continue throwing more strikes and ironing down the effort in his delivery as he develops and gets more college innings under his belt, but there's definitive day one upside here if the track record and production continue to impress.

 

6. Travis Sykora 

Sykora has cemented his status as the hardest thrower in the country. He touched 100 regularly this spring/summer and his secondary pitches continue to get better.  Here is Shooter Hunt on Sykora at Area Code Games: 

As RHP Travis Sykora (Round Rock HS, TX) took the hill to warm up, the stadium fell silent in anticipation. The 6-foot-6, 220-pound Texas recruit didn’t disappoint. He sat 99-100 in the first inning before settling in at 94-98 for the next two. He used his 85-87 slider heavily at first, then went to an 84-87 splitter that the bottom drops out of. There have been a lot of hard throwers at Area Code Games--Tyler Kolek, Riley Pint, Hunter Greene, Jared Kelley and Chase Petty in the last 10 years. Petty and Sykora are the only two to hit 100 in that time. In three innings, Sykora allowed one hit and struck out five.

 

7. Rhett Lowder 

No. 2 pitcher in the new 2023 draft rankings, Wake Forest RHP Rhett Lowder. First team All-American up to 97 mph, a ton of swing-and-miss on his changeup.

8. Noble Meyer 

RHP Noble Meyer (Jesuit HS, OR), an Oregon recruit, has emerged as the top right-handed arm in the class. Featured prominently in Arms Race: Pacific Northwest from last spring, the wiry, long-limbed 6-foot-5, 200-pounder has steadily matured on the mound as the pure stuff has made an electric leap. Now equipped with a fastball that reaches into the upper 90s along with feel for a potential wipeout slider with 3000+ rpm and a faded changeup, Meyer’s confidence has grown to new heights, and there is a strong chance that he is ultimately the first pitcher taken off the board next summer.

 

9. Patrick Reilly 

A bit of an upside play here, as Reilly worked mostly as a reliever at Vandy in 2022, albeit one who threw more than 50 innings. The stuff can be pretty electric but the comand is spotty, with a fastball that touches 98 mph and sits around 94-95, a low-80s slider that misses a lot of bats, plus a changeup and cutter.

 

10. Tanner Witt 

Witt has the prototypical size scouts want to see, as well as the huge stuff to go along with it. A premier prospect since his high school days, Witt is a good athlete who some felt truly had a future at third base with big power potential. He's a good runner considering his size and the body moves free and fluid. The projection here is massive. Witt's arsenal starts with the fastball that's been up to 96, though it sits in the low-to-mid 90s for now. It's a super-vertical four-seamer with top-of-the-scale riding characteristics, albeit the effectiveness diminished a bit by Witt's nearly 7-foot release height. His 12-6 bender is his best secondary with big spin rates and above average velocity, though he's yet to show a strong feel for throwing the pitch for strikes and doesn't induce a whole bunch of swing-and-miss on it yet. Witt has a bit of a "show me" delivery with a double hand-break move that, if eliminated and brought into the body, could help produce more deception and whiffs on his FB/CB tunnel. Witt is as good a bet as anyone to see a massive jump in stuff and production over the course of 2022 and 2023.

Reese Kaplan -- Time to Say Goodbye to a New York Legend

As each baseball season comes to an end there are the inevitable and unenviable "last game" commemorations of players destined for greatness in memory only but no longer on the playing field.  The Mets recently visited Oakland were Stephen Vogt announced his retirement.  While not exactly Johnny Bench during his playing career, he chose to end it where pretty much where it all began for him at San Francisco's crosstown rival.  Still, the team is going through the motions of honoring the man for his many years in professional baseball and after his age 37 season he's calling it quits.

What isn't exactly parallel is the last hurrah for baseball managers.  We all love 'em or hate 'em based upon how well the team performs under their leadership.  Sometimes a manager will float from team to team, demonstrating more his skills at a job interview than his ability to motivate his players to perform at a higher level.  An example would be the late John McNamara who called six teams his managerial employer and finished his career with a losing record, though he did demonstrate an ability with the right players as he finished in first place 4 times during his 20-year managerial helm.  

Occasionally a manager will start off with great potential and as such will make himself highly appealing to other ballclubs when he is ready to make a career change (or after he is terminated by his current employer).  One of this realm of superlative beginners was a true superstar in his playing career -- Don Mattingly.   

There's a common belief that terrific players don't make good managers because they cannot relate to the struggles of younger players not quite delivering at the level they could.  Folks can name many, many superstar players who learned that being a manager is a very different endeavor.  Yes, some superstars did succeed while wearing the mantle of team manager.  Yogi Berra was one example of a guy who was able to make that transition quite well.    Don Mattingly looked to be starting off in the same mold.

Initially hired by the Los Angeles Dodgers to lead them in the Western Division.  Many had high hopes for such a conspicuous hire despite him never having managed before at the major league level.  In his rookie season at Chavez Ravine he led the club to a third place finish, going over .500 at 82-79.  While that's not a pennant winning metric, it was a great showing for someone learning on the job.

In his sophomore campaign back in 2012 Mattingly improved incrementally.  His record this time was 86-76, good for second place in the division.  The trend was moving in the right direction and the Dodger faithful had to feel the best was yet to come.  

Mattingly then in 2013 to 2015 ran off an impressive string of three straight first place finishes.  You really can't get much better than that unless you are counting the October record more than the one from April through September.  After losing to the New York Mets in five games in 2015 it was agreed by both the Dodgers front office and manager Don Mattingly that it was time for a change and he parted ways.

So when you start off your career with five seasons with a high profile team and a managerial record of 446-363 after a Hall of Fame type of playing career, you can well imagine there would be a long line of suitors who would like to see him with the lineup pencil in their dugout.  Strange as it may seem, Mattingly made the seemingly curious decision to go from the top to the bottom, inking a four-year contract to lead the perennially struggling Marlins.  You can see the rationale easily from the team's side.  Was it the money or the challenge that motivated Mattingly to take this job rather than one with a team closer to postseason contention?

Well, that four years in Miami turned into seven and he had a losing record to rival Terry Collins.  He is finishing up his stint in south Florida with a record thus far of 437-584 with 9 games left to play.  Marlins GM Kim Ng felt that it was time for the team to make a change after Mattingly's long streak of losing.  He did finish in second place twice and third place once, but for the most part he's been hugging the bottom of the division with two fourth place finishes and two fifth place finishes.  At age 61 he's not likely to learn any new tricks and with a seven year record of futility to accompany his age, he may not any longer be at the top of anyone's list to lead their teams.  The Mets can say goodbye this week while facing Mattingly's team.

In a way you have to feel bad for a guy who gave his all for the sport he loved.  As a player, he's ponderously not yet in the Hall of Fame despite having a .307 career batting average to go along with seasons of 35 HRs and 145 RBIs.  To be truthful, his prime was relatively short, having finished with impressive numbers from 1984 through 1989, but then his power and run production went on hiatus as he began to face some health woes.  Apparently Gold Glove defense is not enough to sway the voters.  When he hung them up, he had 222 HRs and 1099 RBIs, nice numbers but apparently not considered among the elite.  Even though his offensive and defensive exploits helped the crosstown rivals, he was known as a New York baseball star and now that his second career as a manager is coming to an end, you really need to take off you cap and salute him for all that he's done.