Tom Brennan - Baby Mets WAR Blues

“Hey, I see a WAR on the horizon, and it could be going better.”

We constantly try to evaluate where our 4 li’l bambinos are at.

Our Baby Mets.

A good way to simply do that is their WAR stat, where it boils down to a single grading number for each fella.

And those WAR numbers are not all that good.

Alvarez is solid at 0.7. Greatness lies just ahead.

Mauricio, too, in his limited play so far: 0.2. 

And he is 3 for his last 26, so his WAR is dropping.

The other 2 babies, Baty and Vientos?? 

- Both at -0.9, both negative. 

The 4 babes netted out to -0.9 WAR.

That won’t catch the Braves. 

Not by no means.

Ex-Mets prospect Jarred Kelenic was -1.8 as a rookie, then -0.2+as a sophomore, then +2.1 as a “Junior”. He’s steadily improved from his disastrous debut.

So, it seems these 4 Baby Mets are likely to likewise improve in WAR terms in 2024, perhaps overall from -0.9 in 2023 to a collective +2.0.

Maybe in 2025, +6.0.

But will that be enough to catch the Braves? 

I ask that, because the Braves? 

They are fully armed and ready to go to WAR.

ALSO:

How much of their collective struggles has to do with them playing in NY?

Would all 4 be rocking and rolling if they played in Pittsburgh or KC?

Evaluating that is huge.

So far, 3 of the 4 kiddies have hit better at Citifield than on the road, but is it playing for a struggling team in the intense glare of the Big Apple?

Reese Kaplan -- Filling the Mets Offensive Gap in 2024

In the recent past the New York Mets were adept at acquiring players in the latter half (or final quarter) of a player's career ostensibly to have a long track record of performance to justify the addition to the roster.  It is a somewhat easier sell for the front office when you can point to a track record of say a player like Carlos Delgado becoming a part of the team as opposed to trying to build a narrative for someone like Mark Canha.  

Naturally, the players most fans and media types are coveting right now are the ones who appear to be close to a Hall of Fame track as their careers come to an end.  JD Martinez is a great example of someone who has numbers to make your eyes pop out.  He has already hit for a career number of .287 with 313 home runs and 997 RBIs.  As he enters that dreaded age 35-40 range of a ballplayer's twilight years, his numbers per season have slowed down a bit.  Having earned 30 WAR for his career is nothing to dismiss, the fact is that in 2022 for the Red Sox his home run total was down to just 16 and his batting average was 14 points below his norm.  He did rebound with power for the pennant winning Dodgers this season, but the average stayed at that same slightly reduced level.  His WAR for 2023 as the season closes is at 2.0, nearly double the 1.1 of the year before.  His salary for the Dodgers this year is a respectable but reduced $10 million which is less than what Mark Canha, Starling Marte and others the Mets have paid who generated far less.  So to hear it told, he's the ideal type of DH for the 2024 season at age 36.

Anyone could sit here and repeat this type of exercise looking at the available free agents who could fit the opening the Mets have for generating offense.  Free agency is, of course, the easiest way to enhance a roster as you sacrifice no one with a future on your current team (or future team) and Steve Cohen is almost uniquely capable of digging deep into his pockets when it makes sense to do so.  Of course, watching what happened in 2023 suggests that older ballplayers are not necessarily the best approach to take.

Rumors are bubbling that after their correspondingly frustrating season the San Diego Padres are looking to reduce payroll in the hopes of reinvigorating the franchise.  While you could go up and down their seemingly impressive bunch of hitters to find someone who could be of great help to the Mets, perhaps the most interesting name out there is playing out his current contract with 2024 being his final year.  Instead of being a grizzled veteran, this time around it's someone who played his current season at the ripe old age of 24.  The man's name is Juan Soto.  

Wait, wait, wait...you can't be serious that the Mets would come up with the trade chips necessary to land one of the games most impressive younger sluggers, right?  

After all, since joining the majors at just 19 years of age for the Washington Nationals, Soto has been pretty terrific.  In his six years in the majors (including the shortened 2020 campaign) he has averaged 33 HRs, 101 RBIs and produced a .284 batting average.  For this level of production Soto is being paid well.  His current paycheck with the Padres is for $23 million and during this forgettable season he has hit 35 HRs, driven in 108 and walked 128 times while hitting .276.  

Since he is under contract to the Friars for 2024 he will be getting a big raise in his final year prior to hitting free agency.  Let's for the sake of argument say he becomes a $28 million ballplayer.  Losing him a year too soon could bring the team a wealth of talent whereas waiting for him to go to free agency would result in just a draft pick assuming he turns down his QO.  Consequently it would certainly be in the Padres' interest to cash in on the man right now.

So towards that end, do the Mets have players that the left coast would be contenders could find appealing?  Well, yes, in fact they do.  Think ahead of the 2024 season about players who are in their system and think a bit about whether or not they are good fits for the future.  Catcher Kevin Parada must wonder how he's going to play for the Mets with Francisco Alvarez having established himself as a 21 year old starter today and for the foreseeable future.  He would be a big chip to consider moving.

Additional minor league resources who could be on the block would be under performing Brett Baty and under performing Mark Vientos.  The difference between the two used to be considered defense, but neither has shown themselves capable of handling the hot corner with anything but tepid glovework.  Baty never really got a long hot streak put together and Vientos took until late August and early September to start to hit at an impressive level.  Still, one of the two could accompany Parada in this type of deal.  

Would that be enough to get it done?  It just might.  Remember, after sacrificing two hot level prospects in Parada and one of the infielders you still have to pay the $28 million or more Soto is due in arbitration for 2024 and you have no guarantee he'd remain a Met for more than that one year.  Now you become the Padres in which your return on Soto becomes a draft pick when he turns the Mets down for a Qualifying Offer.  So you would have given up two prime talents and paid a lot of money with no guarantees of anything beyond the 2024 season.  That seems a rather fair return given the salary relief the Padres would immediately get and the quality of the players in return surpassing the long term gamble of a single draft pick.  

We could play this same game with some other hot hitting major leaguers, but the point is that the much ballyhooed "We won't trade away the farm anymore" mantra may be filled with as much hot air as a Thanksgiving day parade balloon float.  

Tom Brennan - Triple OUCH! And a Sewald Head-Scratcher

 

“Hey, I see that there’s more pain out there, folks!”

Three ouches yesterday. 

The last two hurt more.

Mets grab the lead 1-0 in the 8th, then the pen yet again develops a bad cough, coughing up the lead with a big wad of phlegm and falling behind 2-1 in the 9th.  A clean 9th would have beaten the arrival of the rain. 

Now, the Marlins may have to play the Mets Monday to settle the Wild Card race. 

Ouch. At least, it is supposed to be beautiful weather on Monday. 

And one more game for Pete sitting at 46 HRs) to try for 50 homers would be a plus, if he is sitting at 48 or 49 after Sunday.

Ouches #2 and #3 are far more concerning.

#2: Jeff McNeil has a partially torn ACL in his left elbow. Our 3 least favorite letters.  Done for the season, and Jeff expects no surgery and getting by on enriched plasma treatment. How it will affect his play in 2024, or for 2025-27, the other 3 years remaining on his deal? Who knows, but one thing you know is the injury won’t improve his hitting in 2024. 

And if there were thoughts of trading Jeff, his market value just dropped. Ouch.

#3: Brandon Nimmo gets clean X ray of cranky AC shoulder joint in his right (throwing) shoulder. The man with seven years left on his contractual deal gets an MRI today. “Hopefully, nothing enduring here”, said David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes. Impact on 2024, or 2025-30, if any?  TBD. 

Ouch. Let’s hope he wakes up ache-free and plays this weekend.

CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN IT TO ME?

The Mets sold off a lot of guys and missed the Wild Card.  OK, I get that.

What I don’t get is Seattle dealing off ex-Met Paul Sewald, who already has 13 saves for bullpen-weak Arizona, which as of today seems to have secured an NL wild card slot, much of that probably due to Sewald.

You can’t tell me that Seattle wouldn’t have loved him in their bullpen down the stretch, as they trail Houston by a mere one game in the Wild Card battle heading into the final weekend. 

I’m baffled. If I was a Seattle fan, I’d be livid.

Reese Kaplan -- A Twin Bill Shows the State of the Mess, er, Mets

In many ways the Wednesday doubleheader against the Marlins was a microcosm of the NY Mets season thus far.  On the one hand the team looked positively dominant in the first game when the club absolutely went to town on the mound and at the plate against the playoff-hoping Miami team.  Joey Lucchesi did his impression of a back end starter on the best of the best kind of starting rotation and the hitters were unfettered in their blistering attack on the team seeking to play rather than watch October baseball.

Then came game two and Kodai Senga reached his two important pitching goals for the otherwise forgettable 2023 season.  He was not only able to meet and exceed the threshhold of 200 strikeouts, but he lowered his final season ERA to under 3.00 despite having given up a few runs.  He gave up three hits, struck out eight and walked two.  His WHIP improved again as well.  

Unfortunately, then came the 2023 version of the team.  After being lifted with 5 strong endings to add to the back of his baseball card for his rookie season, the bullpen was able to keep things under wraps for the next three with only a little bit of drama along the way.  The hitting was provided almost exclusively by Francisco Lindor who for the day clubbed three home runs to join the 30-30 club and with another weekend of baseball ahead many would not bet against him reaching the 100 RBI level as well.  

In the 9th inning the Marlins faced veteran Adam Ottavino yet things did not proceed smoothly.  Then an opportunity arose to exit the impending fiasco when a ball was hit hard enough to third baseman Brett Baty to nail the lead runner at the plate and perhaps even turn it into a double play with Francisco Alvarez firing a throw to Pete Alonso at first.  Yup, that's how it was supposed to happen.

Instead, Brooks Robinson was turning over in his very recent grave watching Baty boot away a routine grounder allowing all runners to arrive safely and not recording even a single out.  From there it was pretty clear that the 2023 vibes were rearing their powerful and ugly head.  The Mets were surely going to wind up with yet another big L in the won-lost column.  That's exactly what happened.  The quality pitching went into a disappearing act, aided and abetted by the season long suspect defense. 

What does this long and 50-50 day of winning and losing mean for the upcoming 2024 season?  Well, it's kind of hard to tell.  When things go right the club shows that they can be as competitive as anyone.  However, when they go wrong you get flashes of growing pains and repeated ineptitude suggesting that they are likely an improvement of 2023 but not yet by much given the .500 record.

Now to be fair, remember the situation in which the club was playing these games.  Rookie Francisco Alvarez was pushed ahead of schedule into duty as the result of multiple catcher injuries.  Ronny Mauricio was kept likely a beat too long in AAA before finally getting to face major league pitching.  Baty has gotten more than a half season's worth of playing time yet not done enough to demonstrate he's more than a hotly regarded youngster not yet ready for prime time.  Mark Vientos showed home run power yet again in game one, but was otherwise finishing a strong September weakly.  

The veterans Lindor and Alonso had some very productive numbers in terms of run production but their batting averages were not of All Star level.  Brandon Nimmo had arguably the strongest output of anyone on the team as his power surged and his batting average was still respectable.  Jeff McNeil waited until August and September to come alive and while he won't lead the league in hitting nor reach the .300 plateau, he certainly showed folks all month what he is capable of doing.

During this whole twisting in the wind season, the Mets have been without the 2022 version of Starling Marte.   replacement, DJ Stewart, proved to be an entertaining and surprising positive but it was not at Marte's level of defense and certainly without his baserunning speed.  We won't get into the ex pitchers like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Robertson, but the returns on those midyear deals are all helping out in the minor leagues and thus contributing to the current race to the bottom of the division.

Going into the offseason David Stearns and Billy Eppler have much more work to do than initially expected.  There's no guarantee what level Marte will achieve with another winter of medical recovery.  There are no spare outfielders.  There are multiple options to play 3rd base but none suggesting that "All Star" will appear next to their names during 2024.  

Many feel another big run producer is needed in the mold of a veteran outfielder or DH, but if there's any truth to the 2024 being a rebuilding year sentiment, it's not like they will dole out Steve Cohen's money on someone north of age 35 thinking it's all that's needed to progress signficantly.  Sure, it would be nice to see a J.D. Martinez type in a Mets uniform but if you're indeed building for the long term future you don't do that with someone whose best days are behind him.  The club doesn't need any more Robinson Cano types.  

The bullpen was recently covered in great detail about just how bad it is and will be going forward.  It is entirely possible that the money Cohen spends will be on relievers like a return deal for setup man David Robertson and starting pitchers to complement the duo of Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana.  If you're going to live and die by the baby bats then you need some much stronger and more consistent weaponry on the mound.  

Then there's that little question about the 2024 manager...

PIITB By JD- Final Thoughts on the season

 PIITB By JD- Final Overall Thoughts on the Season

 

Wow, where to even begin? This season has been nothing short of a disaster. The Mets had a few standout performances and then literally everything else went wrong. Let’s dig right in.

 

The WBC:

As we all know Edwin Diaz tore his Patellar Tendon celebrating a win with team Puerto Rico.  Diaz pitched to a 1.31 era last year and had a .90 FIP. Now, I did not expect Diaz to repeat those numbers, but anything even somewhat close to that would have been a major boost both on and off the field. The confidence level the team played with last year knowing after 8 the game is over. The Diaz/Robertson duo would have been lights out. All that said, I do support players having the option to play in the WBC. If I am the Mets or any other team I don’t want my players participating by any means. The WBC spreads baseball worldwide and I want to support that.

 

Regular season:

Everything went wrong. From the start Diaz and Verlander were out. Verlander came back after about a month but did not catch fire for much later as he was ramping up. Scherzer was a disaster all year. Jeff Mcneil had a horrific first half. Marte was bad when he played and played way too much and we now know he never fully healed from his core surgery. Brett Baty was bad all year. What does that mean for his future?

 

Inconsistency on the offensive and defensive end put the Mets is a cycle of failure, although the team was not without bright spots. Alonso had a bad year by his standards and still swatted nearly 50 home runs. Francisco Lindor had a 30/30 season. He is worth his contract. He is very good. Nimmo found his power stroke hitting 24 bombs and played over 150 games. All great signs for Brandon. Alvarez hit 24 home runs himself and had a 708 OPS. He lost some steam for sure as the season came to a close. Alvarez is the catcher of the future. Marc Vientos has shown promise since he actually received regular playing time and even Ronny Mauricio has looked competent.

 

 

Conclusion:

            This team will finish with at best 76 wins and at worst 72. This season was a failure. I do see the path to a better future and am putting my faith in David Stearns and this front office to plug the holes and set us up for the long haul. 

 

 

Oh, and Gary, Keith, and Ron continued their Greatness

 

To a Better 2024 and Beyond 

JD

Paul Articulates – Minors awards stack up

The minor league seasons are now over for the St. Lucie Mets (low A), the Brooklyn Cyclones (A), the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (AA), and the Syracuse Mets (AAA).  The St. Lucie and Syracuse teams did not have impressive won/lost records, but supplied some talented players to the levels above them.  Brooklyn had a strong second half but fell just short of a playoff berth.  The Rumble Ponies surged in the second half, made the playoffs, and eventually lost in the championship series to the Erie Seadogs.

Amidst these seasons, several players within the Mets system were recognized with awards for their outstanding performance.

Christian Scott and LuisAngel Acuña were named AA all-stars.  Scott was named as a starting pitcher for the AA Eastern League all-star team and Acuna was named as a utility player for the Frisco RoughRiders in the AA Texas League where he played 84 games with the Texas Rangers affiliate before being traded to the Mets.

Christian Scott began the season on the 7 day Injured List, but then set out on a very successful path.  He pitched to a 2.28 ERA in 23 innings in Brooklyn, got promoted to Binghamton in June and proceeded to record a 2.47 ERA in 62 innings with the Ponies.  Christian led all of MiLB in WHIP (0.83) and strikeout-to-walk rate (8.67), is third in walks-per-nine innings (1.26) and opposing OPS (.537), and sixth in ERA (2.42). In addition to his MiLB accolades, Scott was named the pitcher of the year for the Mets’ system.

LuisAngel Acuña, traded to the Mets in the Max Scherzer deal at the trade deadline, played in 37 games with the Binghamton team and immediately showed some of the skills that earned him the Texas League award. Before he arrived in Binghamton, Acuña hit .315 with seven home runs and 51 RBIs for AA Frisco.  In his full season in the minors, he also stole 57 bases.

Paul Gervase was named to the South Atlantic League (A) all-star team.  The imposing 6’10” 230lb reliever struck out 76 batters in 47 innings on his way to a 1.72 ERA for the Brooklyn Cyclones.  His outstanding work got him promoted – by the time he received the accolade, he was pitching in AA for the Binghamton team where he struck out 20 batters in 10 innings and recorded a 0.77 WHIP.

Jett Williams, last year’s first round draft pick of the Mets, won the Player of the Year award for the Mets’ system.  With the Brooklyn Cyclones, Williams recorded a .299 batting average, scored 25 runs had 18 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in 36 games. The 19-year-old walked more times (33) than he struck out (32).  Williams finished his time in A ball with a 1.018 OPS and headed north to play shortstop for the Binghamton Rumble ponies. Williams also led all Mets' minor leaguers in several categories. In his 2023 minor league regular season, he led all full-season players in on-base percentage (.425), OPS (.876), triples (8), walks (104), runs scored (81), and stolen bases (45).

William Lugo won the infielder Gold Glove award for the Mets’ system.  Lugo played 3B, SS, and 1B in 106 games with the Brooklyn Cyclones.

Rhylan Thomas won the outfielder Gold Glove award for the Mets’ system, playing all three outfield positions this season with the St. Lucie Mets, the Cyclones and the Rumble Pones.

Hayden Senger won the  Platinum Glove award for the Mets’ system for his stellar work behind the plate for AA Binghamton.

Rumble Ponies pitching coach AJ Sager was named Staff Member of the Year. Sager’s staff this season set a Binghamton franchise record with 14 shutouts and ranked first among the 30 AA clubs in strike rate and walks issued, and second in opponent on-base percentage.

The Rumble Ponies pitching staff under Sager’s tutelage were awarded several Eastern League honors, including Mike Vasil being named Eastern League Pitcher of the Month for May and Tyler Stuart, Luis Moreno, and Joander Suarez (twice) receiving Eastern League Pitcher of the Week recognition. 

On September 7 at Hartford, Suarez threw the eighth no-hitter in franchise history, facing the minimum 21 batters over seven innings.

In the Dominican Summer League, Mets players had three additional awards: 

DSL Player of the Year - Jeffry Rosa

DSL Pitcher of the Year - Franklin Gómez

DSL Staff Member of the Year - Diana Pérez

Tom Brennan - The Highly Unusual Season of Minor Leaguer Jaylen Palmer

A Jaylen Palmer picture posted by Mack when Palmer was drafted.

Jaylen Palmer has tools. 

Fast.

Athletic.

He also strikes out an absolute ton.

Objectively, he had a very bad season.  He hit .173.

He fanned 183 times in 120 games and 464 plate appearances (PAs). 

In other words, he fanned in 40% of his PAs. 40%.

He played at 3 levels in 2023.

He hit poorly in Brooklyn. As in .167. Fanned a ton.

He got promoted and hit poorly in Binghamton. As in .143.  Fanned a ton.

He nonetheless got promoted to Syracuse, too, which was puzzling since he hit poorly, and fanned a ton, in Brooklyn and Binghamton. I surmise that the organization was trying to eliminate holes in the AA lineup in anticipation of an Eastern Division title run, which fell just short of success, in large part due to enhanced team hitting.

He started out poorly for Syracuse.  Hitting .172 on Sept 12.  Fanning a ton.

But...

In his last 11 games, he walked 11 times, was hit by a pitch, went 11 for 35 with 4 HRs, and cut his strikeouts down to 14.  So, in his last 47 plate appearances, he got on base 23 times, a very impressive rate.

He hit .250 in his 21 games in AAA, with 6 HRs and a .594 slug %, shocking me, frankly.  Maybe you, too.

He's fast, steals a lot of bags (82 of 99 over the past 3 years), and plays good D in the outfield and passably in the infield.

Is he a late bloomer who is suddenly starting to figure out how to not strike out as much in September?

Might one more minor league season do the trick?

I've never seen a guy with huge K #s in the minors transform to become a MLB player. Especially a guy drafted in 2018, who now has been to the plate 1,766 times as a pro.

Maybe Jaylen can be the one to pull it off, as unlikely as that seems.

2024, presumably, will tell the tale, assuming they even bring him back.

After all, 11 great final games does not a season make.

On the flip side, let’s compare him to a super-contact guy:

Rhylan Thomas may not have Palmer’s speed or power, but in 2023, he fanned just a Tony Gwynn-like 28 times in 346 PAs, a mere 8% K rate, and all that additional contact led to an average for Thomas that was 155 points higher than Palmer’s in 2023.  

In baseball: Contact Matters. All Contact Matters.

To emphasize the disparity between the two, Palmer had 118 more plate appearances than Thomas. If Thomas had gotten up 118 more times and fanned all 118 of those times, he would still have fanned 37 fewer times than Palmer did. Mind-boggling.

If I could keep just one, I’m keeping the Tony Gwynn guy.

ATLANTA HITTERS ARE A BUNCH OF SLUGS:

301 homers and a staggering .501 team slugging % through 157 games. 

By comparison, the great David Wright’s career slug % is .491. SMH.

METS SPLIT A TWINKIE:

11-2 win, 4-2 loss to the Marlenes.  Pete had 4 hits in game one & 1 HBP.

Joey Lucchesi is 4-0, 2.89 in 47 innings…nothing wrong with that, huh?

Francisco Lindor was the star of the night, hitting three homers in the doubleheader to join the 30-30-30 club. Nice job! (Homers, doubles, steals).

Senga surpassed 200 Ks (WOW), as he continued to emulate David Cone. 

But the pen blew game # 2.

Vientos homered (9), but otherwise, the Baby Mets hit like a bunch of babies.

And Baby, that’s all I’ve got to say for today.

Except I did note though that Dom Smith has hit more HRs lately, but his RBIs were really low. Looked, and in 118 at bats with RISP, .178 with 2 doubles and one HR. How bad is that? In 574 Nationals plate appearances in 2022-23, he has 44 RBIs. Pete Alonso by comparison had 46 RBIs in just April and May this year. Still thrilled Smith is gone.

Tom Brennan - Binghamton Falters in Championship Series

Looking for a Championship Trophy, But Finding None

The 75-61 Binghamton Rumble Ponies, who had a hot second half after an infusion of talent mid-season, faced their Erie counterparts in the finals series after rocking through the first round.

It looked to be a battle of equals of two teams with very similar records.  For the first few innings of game one of the best of 3 series, it was.  But the hot 2nd half pitching of Binghamton ultimate coughed up 9 runs in a game where the offense compiled 6 runs but stopped scoring late.

The do-or-die game 2 was neither successful, nor a nailbiter.

The hot Christian Scott went 1.1 innings and allowed 3 runs.  

The relievers provided none, and coughed up 7 more.

The Rumble Ponies offense managed just 4 hits, and no B Mets player crossed home plate.

They also made 3 errors.

10-0 finals game 2 loss stinker.  No third game needed.  Disappointing.

All Mets minor league action is done.  Seven teams, one playoffs, no championships.

Now any last glimmer of Mets minors action moves on to the Arizona Fall League soon for several Mets minors players. 

Meanwhile, the Queens Mets (rained out last night) play 2 vs. the Wild Card-seeking Marlenes as the big league season winds to a close this week in painful fashion for Pete and the Gang.  No playoffs, no championship.

Let's get one of those high draft picks at least, shall we?   

Lose lots this week, then smile all winter.

Reese Kaplan -- To the Mets DH Means "Doesn't Hit"

For the 2022 season the National League made a gesture to unify the approach to baseball used in the American League since 1973.  50 years ago the junior circuit implemented the Designated HItter (DH) to replace the often comically useless at-bats by pitchers but the senior circuit held onto tradition.  Finally the DH came to the National League and for the New York Mets the very concept has been much like trying to find an ethical person holding political office.  

If you think I'm taking a cheap shot at the ballclub (or politicians), let me recite for you the list of Designated Hitters the Mets felt were answers to this extra offensive turn in the batting order.  Hopefully you have a strong stomach.  Daniel Vogelbach leads the pack with 49 games in 2022.  He was followed closely by JD Davis with 46.  

Remember Dom Smith?  How about Darrin Ruf?  Then there was PED poster child Robinson Cano.  Eduardo Escobar got a few turns there.  Even Luis Guillorme had the letters DH next to his name in a pair of games.  There were others but they were even more nondescript.   I've excluded regular players getting a day of rest like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor.

What's really strange about this 101 season of delusional DH output is that the Cooperstown bound manager Buck Showalter spent the majority of his career in the AL with the DH as a regular part of his lineup.  To be fair, he's not the one swinging the bat and can only slot in the position players he's been given.  Still, it was a horror show for the Mets last season and the DH (if you remember the H stands for "Hitter") led the team with 183 strikeouts.  It would seem that the execution was laughingly bad.

So after the offseason came and went with Steve Cohen establishing a record setting payroll, surely the Mets will have learned from their embarrassing past and improve on the output and would put a big bat in the lineup, right?

Wrong.

For 2023 the leading recipient of the DH role has again been Daniel Vogelbach.  To his credit he's hit 13 HRs and driven in 45 over a half season's worth of ABs.  That part is good.  The .229 average is not.  He's become deservingly a forgotten man.  

Other major occupants of the DH slot include departed bats Eduardo Escobar, Tommy Pham and Mark Canha. There were again some days off from the field for regular players.  Then came a pretty new candidate playing to establish himself for 2024 -- Mark Vientos.

Step back for a moment and think what makes for a good DH.  Hitting is pretty much at the top of the list.  Except for the days when regulars suited up at DH, that attribute has been missing from the Mets.  Defensively challenged fielders are another group for whom the DH role makes sense.  

Yes, there are folks in the fold who check that box on the sheet of playing characteristics.  Then there is lack of speed.  Since the DH is only there to hit, drawing a lot of walks for a guy who runs like Vogelbach is somewhat counterproductive.  

So that brings us back to Mark Vientos.  It seems that the club is definitely penciling in Ronny Mauricio for an infield position.  Francisco Lindor gets another.  That leaves the other infield slot open to Brett Baty who has yet to establish consistency, Jeff McNeil who these days plays the outfield more than the infield and the slow, lead gloved Vientos.  

There is a difference with Vientos, however.  Since his early benching and inconsistent playing time, when he was given the opportunity to play he started to do so with solid results.  He's batting over .300 over his past month with a great show of exit velocity as well as a collection of fly balls landing in upper decks.  

He's always shown he can hit when given the chance to adjust to the new level of pitching.  Now the fans who were ready to write him off as a AAAA player at best are actually watching when he strides to the plate.

Come 2024, rather than going into the veteran free agent pool to bring in a north of 35 year old hitter on the down side of his career to take over the DH role for the Mets to give them what they've lacked during 2022 and 2023, wouldn't it be a more cost effective and potentially productive option to give Vientos the role and let him see how he does?  

Now it's not an all-or-nothing choice here.  Remember that right fielder who has substituted admirably for Starling Marte, DJ Stewart?  As a left handed hitter he could either complement Vientos or win that role outright as his defensive play is entertaining but not always in a good way.  

In short, the Mets need to be active in free agency.  They need starting pitchers, relievers and outfielders.  It doesn't seem a prudent spending decision to throw a lot of green after players turning gray when there are under-30 solutions in house ready and willing to assume the role.  

Mike's Mets - Tuning Out the Noise

 

By Mike Steffanos

Don't listen when someone tries to sell you the "everything short of a championship is a failure" philosophy. It sucks the fun out of being a fan.

In May, back before the New York Mets' season turned to fecal material, I started writing a piece that ended up sitting on a back burner for most of the season. I always knew that I would get back to it. I just didn't think the entirety of spring and summer would pass before I did. I never conceived of the year going quite this badly for the Metropolitans, even as I began to suspect quite early on that this team wouldn't live up to all of the preseason hype. Even that didn't prepare me for the reality of a sub-.500 team, so clearly playing out the string as we head into the final week of this disastrous campaign. But, in a way, this reality check of a season reinforced the truth I hoped to convey when I began this piece.

The inspiration for this post came at the end of April while reading an item by Joel Sherman in the New York Post. He was reacting to a comment by the Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks had just been ousted by the Miami Heat in the playoffs. Antetokounmpo's offense, in Sherman's eyes, was to claim, "There's no failure in sports." Joel assured all of us that there is, indeed, failure in sports and broadened the point out to include the Mets and Padres, two MLB clubs who famously spent big money this past offseason:

...what the Mets and Padres have done — hyperinflating their star power and payroll the past two years — has changed the context for them. They have entered a territory annually reserved for the Yankees and Dodgers. Essentially, championship or bust. Or, at minimum, play for the championship or bust. Getting ousted early in the playoffs or — imagine — somehow not even making a larger-than-ever postseason field would mark a season as a failure. Think about the reaction if, for example, the Mets didn't even make a six-team NL playoff group.

Yeah, just imagine that reaction. Oh wait, I don't have to. 

A little background here. If you are a New York sports fan, you're unlikely to escape the mentality among those who cover the sport and many who follow it that any season that doesn't end with a parade down the canyon of heroes is an abject failure. Most of the New York sports media accepts and amplifies this thinking. And because so many in the press espouse the view, many local fans buy into it, too.

The recent roots of this belief derive from the run of success that the New York Yankees enjoyed from 1996-2000, winning four titles in five years. Even the current Yankees are victims of that success. Although they've been in the playoffs almost every year since then, they've won one solitary title during those years. None at all since 2009. This, of course, is completely unacceptable.

There isn't anything new about this thinking. As a Mets fan, I first encountered it in the 1980s. After the marvelous  "Ya Gotta Believe" season of 1973, the Mets franchise had essentially collapsed as the heirs of original owner Joan Payson struggled to keep the lights on at Shea Stadium. In truth, the Mets clubs from 1977-1983 would have been better served playing in darkness. Only the sheer awfulness of the 1980 and 1981 Cubs kept the Mets from finishing in last place for all 7 seasons. The only year in this stretch where the Mets didn't lose over 90 games was 1981, when a strike limited their season to 105 games. This era nourished a broad pessimistic streak in me that can still dominate my attitude toward the Mets if I allow it.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

Tom Brennan - 4 “Baby Mets”: Success, or Failure? Binghamton Blues

Our Baby Mets Get No Respect, I Tell Ya

One of our readers recently said about the four Baby Mets that they’ve failed.

What do the facts say? Is that a reasonable assertion?

Well, with about 10 games to go in the season, the median slash line for the 30 MLB teams (rookie and veteran) was .250/.323/.415. 

The 4 baby Mets collectively are below that by a good bit.

But, more pertinent is how they are doing vs. their rookie peers. 

Thru Wednesday Sept. 20:

Ronny Mauricio was at .300, 7th highest for any rookie with 50 or more ABs.

Francisco Alvarez - obviously the best slugging rookie catcher? 

Well….almost.

He has 23 HRs in 362 at bats, but Yainer Diaz of Houston has 23 HRs in 342 at bats. 

Diaz was also hitting 72 points higher…but, keep in mind that Diaz is 25, Alvarez is 21. 

Me? I prefer Alvarez long-term.

Baty was 31st in rookie HRs with 8, and Vientos was 35th with 7. Vientos had done it 130 fewer at bats than Baty’ 316 at bats. 12 of those MLB rookies with more HRs than Baty have hit more HRs in fewer at bats.

Both are hitting better in September, though.

Vientos, Alvarez, and Baty were  84th, 100th, and 105th in rookie batting average, at .226, .215, and .212,  regardless of the number of at bats for other rookies in that top 105. Some above them have had few at bats, Still, their combined .216 average in 866 combined at bats needs to see at least a 25 point jump in 2024, to allow them to be positive, rather than negative, offensive contributors next year.

I think at least .240 overall for that foursome in 2024 is quite reasonable to expect, and hopefully, .250 is within reach, as the MLB entry adjustment period will be largely over as this season is ending.

Walks? Few. Ks? High.

Just 69 walks vs. 262 Ks for Mark, Francisco and Bret, in 864 at bats. That will also undoubtedly improve in 2024. 

Ronny has fanned 16 times and walked 5 in 65 plate appearances, a decent rate so far, but too early to be truly indicative.

The four hitters’ 39 homers in 924 at bats is good, and likely the HRs per at bat will increase for them in 2024, as Mark is starting to hit more, and Baty and Alvarez will likely hit more per at bat, too.

CONCLUSION:

I would not call their output as rookies a failure. I’d term it modest success with clear growing pains, but boding well for the 2024 and beyond future.

Baty, to me, gets a D+, Vientos a C, Alvarez a B+, and Mauricio trending towards a B+. 

And Vientos is passing the jitters phase and getting more dangerous at the plate. His last 50+ at bats, a B/ B+.

I expect much overall improvement from the 4 ex-babies in 2024. 

The break-in period is OVER once this season wraps up.

2024, for the four? 

I anticipate…

More power, lower K rate, higher walk rate, higher averages. At least MLB hitter average from them in 2024.

On the other hand, they all fall far short in 2023 of Corbin Carroll, a sensational Arizona rookie with a .280s average, plenty of pop, and an awesome 50 for 55 in steals. 

Maybe Jett Williams or Drew Gilbert will be the Corbin Carrolls - of 2025.

I do not consider Kodai Senga a rookie, even though he is one technically. 

Kodai has been great.  But he is a veteran.

So Carroll is my NL ROY. 

Without Carroll, Arizona would be falling short of the Wild Card, rather than a plausible Wild Card club, if they don’t falter this week.

BINGHAMTON BLUES:

Binghamton loses game 1 to Erie, 9-6. 

Sweep the next two of this best of 3, or leave feeling Erie.

Jett walked 4 times, Acuna had 2 hits, Gilbert 3 hits (HR, 3 RBI), Parada 3 hits, Jordan 2 hits, Rhylan Thomas his usual 2 hits. 

Schwartz and Jackson each, though, were 0-5, numbing the offense.

Tidwell was strong early, but allowed 4 runs (earned) in 5 innings, with 7 Ks. 

Bullpen was the deciding factor, as it gave up 5 more runs, including 1 run in one inning from the previously unhittable Joander Suarez, who took the L.

Tom Brennan - Syracuse Mets Season Mini-Wrap

The S-Mets staff allowed runs as if they were still playing in Las Vegas instead.

We’re the S-Mets Interesting??  Well…Not So Much

61-85 was the final record for the S Mets. Ugh.

This despite 65 HRs in 1,014 at bats from Mauricio, Vientos, Stewart, and Baty in AAA. 222 HRs in 146 games for the S-Mets, and still 24 games south of .500.

But a 5.80 Syracuse ERA and 894 runs in 146 games were the flip side. 

Had they played a full 162 games at that pace, they would have allowed roughly 1,000 runs. Yeah. 1,000.

Since 1962, just two MLB teams have allowed more than 980 runs in a season, to put that into perspective.

(By the way, the next HR the Braves hit will be their 300th, with 6 games left. The Braves, if you hadn’t noticed, are in the same division as the NY Mets.)

Getting back to Syracuse:

Wyatt Young, not a HR threat, had both Syracuse hits last night in a 7-3 loss.

A tough year for Wyatt, but 8 hits in his last 4 games to finish the season at .220 had to at least feel pretty good.

Nate Lavender fanned the side. 86 Ks in 54 innings, tremendous rate, and a 2.98 ERA.

- Works for me, how about you? See you in Queens in 2024, Nate.

Eric Orze did not pitch Sunday, but in his last 11 Syracuse innings, 2 hits and 22 Ks, representing a fine sprint to the bullpen finish line.

Not much else good to say about the losing S Mets in a sorry season. 

Tomas Nido, though, did have 14 times as many AAA RBIs as NY Mets RBIs. 

He had 1 as a Met in 56 at bats, 14 for Syracuse in 150 ABs, while hitting .273 upstate.

“Sorry” sums up the AAA team’s results. And Nido’s, I’m sorry to say.

The sorry NY Mets team based in Queens County, meanwhile, lost 5-2 to Philly. 

Unlike Syracuse, which scored 3 runs on 2 hits, the NY Mets scored 2 runs on 3 hits. Mauricio hit a laser HR. He was beaming afterwards.

Anthony Kay was back for his Mets’ re-debut, and threw 1.2 IP of perfection.

LUCKY? GOOD? I guess we will find out.

And the Mets were one more loss closer to a dandy draft slot. Nice.

Have a nice day, folks, and…GO DEEP.

Paul Articulates – Catch him if you can?

The New York Mets have spent years searching for a solution to the catcher position on their team.  You probably remember the list of unsuccessful backstop attempts from the last decade.  But in case you have tried to permanently erase that bad memory from your mind, here it comes rushing back again:

2014:  Travis d’Arnaud became the primary catcher after the departure of John Buck.  He was backed up by Juan Centeno and Taylor Teagarden.  There was great enthusiasm about d’Arnaud who came over in the trade for R.A.Dickey that also brought a pitcher named Thor.  Thor brought a bigger hammer as d’Arnaud finished the season batting .242 with a .718 OPS.

2015: This was year two and probably the best of the d’Arnaud era, backed up by steady Kevin Plawecki and future SNY talking head Anthony Recker.  Travis hit  a very respectable .268 with a .825 OPS as the Mets made it to the World Series.

2016: Travis d’Arnaud was hurt for part of the season, and the trio of d’Arnaud, Plawecki, and Rene Rivera split the catching duty pretty evenly.  No playoffs this time.

2017: d’Arnaud was back to health, catching 112 games, but his defensive confidence continued to fade.  He hit .248 and his backups Plawecki and Rivera were not too much better.  Newcomer Tomas Nido played a few games and seemed to hit well.

2018: Travis d’Arnaud injured his UCL in April and caught 4 games this season.  Devin Mesoraco, Kevin Plawecki, Tomas Nido, and Jose Lobaton hit a combined .202 in 574 at-bats.

2019: The d’Arnaud era ended in April as Travis was DFA’ed.  Wilson Ramos was picked up before the season as a free agent in a 2-year, $19M deal as the primary catcher.  He brought the offense as promised, slashing .288/.351/.416 but also recorded a negative 13 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).  

2020: Wilson (The Buffalo) Ramos started the year again as the primary catcher, but his hitting prowess was much diminished from the prior year, and defense was not much improved.  In the shortened season, Ramos started 45 games, batted .237, and did not have his contract renewed.

2021: The Mets brought in James McCann on another free agent deal.  Faced with the choice between paying big money to Realmuto or a more reasonable salary for a younger McCann, the Mets opted for the latter.  Over 2 years the “bargain” $40M deal was worth a .220 batting average and six weeks on the injured list with a fractured hamate bone.

2022: It was McCann again, followed by Nido, Mazeika, Perez, and finally (FINALLY!) Francisco Alvarez.

2023: Despite all the impressive performance in the minors where he mastered every level, Francisco Alvarez started the season in AAA as the Mets bought the services of Omar Narvaez to start the season and give Alvarez more reps in the minors.  Narvaez, who may be a distant relative to Wally Pipp, lasted all the way until April 7th when he went on the IL with a leg injury.  Alvarez came up, hit 20 home runs by the end of July, and Narvaez became a highly compensated backup catcher.

I’m sorry to drag you through all that painful history, but there was a point.  There is currently a boiling social media debate about the playing time given to the Mets’ top prospect turned MLB starting catcher Francisco Alvarez.  In the month of September, Alvarez and Narvaez have shared plate duty, often  rotating one day on, one day off.  

Some are exasperated that Buck would not play Alvarez every day, especially with very few games remaining.  Sure, he slumped after his hot mid-season, but this is the “catcher of the future” for the team.  Others argue that this is the right approach to save the wear-and-tear on the young catcher’s body.  He has caught 122 regular season games already, the most in his career.

Where do I stand on this debate?  I believe the Mets are doing the right thing.  Look at the history above – Travis d’Arnaud spent quite a bit of his Mets career nursing injuries.  So did McCann.  It is no secret that the catcher position is one of the most physically trying of any due to the foul balls, bat over-swings, and 150 squats per game.  Young players are more resilient and heal faster, but the wear on the body, particularly the knees accumulates over time.  

With this season all over but the shouting, and Alvarez already recording 118 MLB games in 2023, his “learn-by-doing” time has been spent.  A few more games in September will not delay his maturity for future seasons.  Save him for bigger, better, more important games in future seasons.

[special note – after this article was written, Alvarez was removed from the Mets-Phillies game after taking successive foul balls in the left hand area.]

Reese Kaplan -- The Guys Who Throw Gasoline on the Fire

While there are a great many issues with the Mets as a team right now, there have been encouraging signs in various places.  Mark Vientos is starting to look as if the DH role might be a suitable one for his future.  Brett Baty in the past couple of games before last weekend began to show both his offensive and defensive chops.  

Ronny Mauricio makes everyone in the Mets fanverse wonder what took the club so long to recognize this young man's potential for the future?  Even some unlikely sources pitching for the team like Jose Butto have surprised many with consecutive solid outings.  Yes, while it's possible that not all will pan out as everyone envisions, the fact is that these heretofore unknown Mets are offering up the kind of play that the club had expected from others when 2023 began so long ago.

Noticeably absent from this list of rank positives is the performance of the New York Mets bullpen.  Now momentarily forget what Brooks Raley and Adam Ottavino have done.  Assume Edwin Diaz will return to the shutdown closer he has become.  No, we're not here to discuss these positives.  Instead, it's time to focus on the many others who have tried and failed to establish themselves as support for the starting rotation.

First of all, look down the list of relief pitchers and it's not exactly a star gallery of folks with great success during 2023 nor even in the recent past.  Arguably the best of this lot is familiar Mets veteran setup man, Drew Smith.  A long term connection to former Met Lucas Duda, Drew Smith has struggled with his health since joining this organization but until this year he's been way more good than bad.  While right now he's pitching to a mediocre 4.39 ERA with a gopher ball tendency, he's been far better.  

After debuting back in 2018 with a 27 game rookie stint with a 3.54 ERA, he seemed to get his ability to miss bats and stay in the strike zone together and improved significantly when able to pitch.  He was gone for all of 2019 and all but 8 games in 2020 before being healthy in 2021 when he went 3-1 over 31 games with a tiny 2.40 ERA and a WHIP of just 1.065.  Yes, that was indeed what the Mets hope he would become.  

2022 was not quite as stellar for Smith but 44 games and a 3.33 ERA again suggested he was a valuable member of the Mets support staff.   His late season improvement suggests he should not be a forgotten man, particularly when you look at the alternatives.

Right now most Mets fans and media types have already written off Smith as a necessary roster casualty for the 2024 season.  While you could make the case that he's not going to land in Cooperstown except as a tourist, the fact is he's far better than the rest of the options currently in house.  

For a quick reminder of that list, do the names Phil Bickford, Reed Garrett, Grant Hartwig, Jeff Brigham or Trevor Gott make you feel all warm and fuzzy about the guys who take the mound when the starter falters or exhausts himself?  I think not.  

How bad have this current crop of "Who?" pitchers been?  Well, the best of the rest could be Trevor Gott who through 30 games is logging a 4.62 ERA.  Grant Hartwig in 25 games trails him at 5.06.  Then comes Jeff Brigham whose 37 games for two teams ratcheted up a 5.26 ERA.  Phil Bickford has only had 16 games but when you sport a 6.88 ERA perhaps that's enough.  The lightest workload belongs to Reed Garrett who has appeared in just 6 contests but his ERA of 9.31 will surely make you shudder.  There is no David Robertson quality here.

So as much as folks have focused on the need to address the starting rotation, the desire to see the baby Mets mature and grow, the pursuit of some thunderous bats to add to the 2023 lackluster offensive output and the pride people have now that David Stearns is coming on board, it sure looks as if the biggest hole in the roster for the upcoming season is found in the bullpen.  

Now veteran relievers can be brought in who have had success in the past like Mychal Givens but then they don't replicate their better days.  You can cherry pick someone who far exceeds expectations like the one year of Aaron Loup.  Or you could try to pry away AAA talents from other clubs in deals you make to strengthen what has become the team's Achilles heel.

Help!