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1/20/24

Tom Brennan - The Undisputed Mets Minors Champeen Is....

HEY MACK!  I SEE A JETT APPROACHING!  

WOW!  IT'S COMING FAST!

Jett Williams, in my book, is the undisputed Mets minors champeen.

(That's champion, if you don't talk like your from one of the outer boros.)

Jett is my Numero Uno in the Mets farm system.

At age 19, the burgling Jett stole 45 of 53, and I read that he had an OBP of .433 or higher in all but one month of 2023.

With 104 walks in 131 games, too.

Frankie Valli's "Walk Like a Man" comes to mind: 

"Walk like a man, fast as I can."  

He no doubt intends to walk his way into the majors in 2024 at age 20.

And then run fast as he can.

Jett was also hit by pitches 15 times in 2023.  

So those 119 walks + HBPs = almost one per game.

Little guy?  So he's a bit short - so what?  

After all, he smacked a healthy 46 extra base hits. Gotta love that at 19.  

Of course, that XBH total would have been higher if he didn't walk or get HBP in so darned many plate appearances.  

In fact, his walks and HBPs alone were good for a .223 OBP! So, in only 77.7% of his plate appearances did he have non-walk, non-HBP at bats to produce those 46 XBHs.  

Compare to Amed Rosario at roughly that same age in 2016 when, at the time, he was one of baseball's highest rated prospects.  

In virtually the same number of plate appearances (527) as Jett (534) had in 2023, Rosario walked or got HBP only 35% as much as Williams (42 times vs. Jett's 119).  

What a huge difference...big-time advantage to the Jett. 

(I bet that Jett, were he to play the whole 2024 season with the Mets, would end up with a very acceptable .300 OBP, even as raw as he is).

Williams is working his tuchus off this off season, no doubt, to further narrow the gap between himself and what is big league ability level.  

His motivation and focus level is extreme.  

Reminiscent of the drive that a teenage Bryce Harper had to get to the majors ASAP.  Which he did.

Jett's goal as a 19 year old was to reach AA in 2023: goal achieved.  

His goal in 2024 as a 20 year old is to reach the majors. 

I say that happens before July.  What say you?

His fellow top Mets prospects are ahead of him in AA plate appearances. 

So far, Jett has just 44 plate appearances in AA, reaching base a very respectable 15 times.  

But...

#2 Drew Gilbert has 436 PAs at the AA level.

#3 Luisangel Acuna has 586 PAs at the AA level.

Logic says they both should beat him to Queens in 2024, just because they've already had much more pro playing time at the AA level.

We'll see.  

Acuna had a slightly above .350 OBP at AA, Gilbert .380.  

Jett just seems to have the knack of getting on base more. And running.

So I'd not be surprised if the order of Mets' debuts turns out to be: 

1) Williams, 2) Gilbert, 3) Acuna.  All in 2024, of course.

Don't dawdle with the call-up of these 3 soon-coming stars in 2024.  

We need them to gain invaluable experience in the bigs, so they can play on the level of accomplished and dangerous veterans in 2025.

Hopefully, in 2025, all 3 will play like true champeens.


WE GOT BADER, THEY GOT HADER

So, the Astros go 5 years, $95 million to ink the elite Josh Hader.

Without him, the Mets are much more likely to be a Fader and a Playoffs Evader. The Mets without Hader may reach their Nadir.

But at least he’s in the AL. 

Now that the key reliever signing has likely awoken the reliever FA market, let’s hope the Mets sign a few reliever FAs, and don’t try to improve the pen by being a Trader.

OK, that’s it for me.

Later.

13 comments:

  1. I had Jett as the 4th SS in that draft but I never thought the Mets would draft him

    I too am excited St what I see.

    So far.

    Give him 2024 to climb thru the ranks and be ready for a late call up in September

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  2. My prediction as the next Great Met

    Nick Morabito

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  3. Mack, I so agree with your latter statement on Morabito that I had drafted a follow up article for tomorrow after your Sunday AM article runs.

    Don't know if he will be the greatest, but he is 100% underrated.

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  4. I'm trying not to get too excited. It is so early in his career that I think Jett still has a setback in front of him when the better pitching finds a "hole". Then he will have to handle some adversity and remain confident. I don't think we will see him move beyond Syracuse this year.

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  5. Paul, I agree to a degree. I just think walks and HBPs will prop up his on base %. I also think, as he surprised us in 2023, he will do it again in 2024. I have no doubt that he is working feverishly this off season to improve, and it will be evident in 2024.

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  6. The Smurfs? In the 2020s it’s all about power,HRs and Ks.

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  7. I’d guess that the FO would like to give Jett as much of this season as possible - all of it if he struggles at all - in AA/AAA, with a September reward if he does well. But performance and injuries could alter that. Acuña, I think is the same (in terms of expected timing, not skills, where Jett seems the more well-rounded player). I’d be surprised to see him up before the end of the year if not ‘25. Gilbert, I think is the guy we’re most likely to see first. Particularly if Marte is hurt or ineffective or if another OF goes on the IL. But Tom, I do strongly agree that Williams looks like he may be special, even Altuve-like.

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  8. Alex, Jett has decent power, and I bet he'll add more.

    5'6" Matt Rudick added strength before 2023, and was the best player in the Eastern League thru early June, when he got hurt. On June 10, he was hitting .311/.455/.539, no doubt astonishing those who said he couldn't do this or that.

    I am telling you, Jett is DRIVEN and I'm 100% sure this offseason that he assessed exactly what he needs to do to get to the majors this year and improve on all of those.

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  9. Adam, we have to deal in reality, and Acuna’s OBP in 2023 was .358. I’d not be surprised to see him have a .330 OBP in the big league, with speed and strong D. But I sense Jett will not be satisfied with an MLB OBP below .400. I think Acuna will be good, but Jett will be a real star. Let’s see if Jett forces his way up by mid season. .400 plus speed is a sweet combo.

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  10. Agree and hope he helps usher in a new "Dawn" for our beloved Metsies and it won't be long until he answers the question "Who Loves You" we do of course. Soon after that we say "Bye Bye Baby" to all the overpaid and under performing deadwood and you know who you are! I'll save the best for last because "Ronnie" when he's back will be a major piece going forward. LGM!

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  11. I agree with you Tom. I am also bullish on Jett and think he will be a very good MLB player with the Mets. I also cannot argue with Paul's assertion that there may be a rough spot along the way for a little while, but I believe it will be short. His skill set and determination will keep him projecting up.

    One thing to remember when predicting the future call-ups of Williams/Gilbert/Acuna is that Luisangel Acuna is already on the Mets 40-man roster. If they need a body to fill a short term injury spot, he would be the first guy up as there are no other roster gyrations required.

    Here's hoping that all three of them plus Rudick are playing MLB ball in 2025.

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  12. Bill, good point on Acuna and 40 man.

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  13. Gary, Ronny needs to square away his fielding.

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