Open Thread: What Will Mets' Record over Remaining Games Be? Who'll They Buy Or Sell By Deadline?

Obviously, the Mets have rebounded from the dregs of 24-35, going 18-8 since then through Wednesday.

Ace Senga seemingly will be back within weeks.  

Ace reliever Edwin this weekend to help shore up a beleaguered bullpen.

RF Marte probably returns within weeks, too, along with RP Reid-Foley. 

The team has been HITTING, except for the Thursday 11:00 AM 1-0, 1 hit loss where the Mets hitters performed like a recent debater who did not have enough nap time, and the team’s pitching starters have improved.

So, 4 questions for you, understanding that how they play in the last 3+ weeks of July will ultimately dictate buying or selling by month's end:

1) What do you predict will their record be over the last 77 games? Why?

2) Will it get them into the Wild Card?

3) Will they be buyers or sellers?

4) Who specifically should they buy, if going for it, or who should they sell, if giving up?

 - If they buy who do they trade away? If selling, who'd Mets get back?

4)

Reese Kaplan -- Gasoline on the Fire from the Pen

As happy as the Mets collective turnaround has been since the start of June, there’s not a single person even remotely interested in the future of the franchise that is not aware of the horrific condition of the New York Mets bullpen.  It seems nearly every day no matter who is handed the ball becomes a batting practice hurler for the opposition.  Some people on the Syracuse shuttle are only being given a single game to show what they can’t do.  Others have had a much more substantive career and a multitude of games during which they have failed spectacularly again, again and yet again.

However, before we jump too aggressively up and down on the spines of the failed relievers, let’s take a moment to celebrate the pending return of the sticky offender, Edwin Diaz.  Whether or not his good fortune recently before the citation for alleged foreign substance on his pitching hand was or was not true, everyone is fully aware of how he struggled during the maleficent month of May.  It called to mind his rookie season for the boys in blue and orange.  Then he did a tremendous turnaround and followed it up with legendary types of numbers that led to his monster contract.

Now having endured the silly WBC injury that cost him his entire 2023 season and an extremely uneven 2024 before the umpire intervention, the very suggestion of sticky material on his hand would lead one to question whether or not it was an overly aggressive ump or was he onto something that has thus far flown under the radar?  That’s another rant for another day.

Moving forward, the bullpen gets the return of Mr. Diaz this coming weekend, so it may be time to consider a major roster change.  Understand that while suspended, the Mets have been operating shorthanded.  Consequently they don’t need to remove anyone to make room for their 8th reliever.  Given how badly the relievers have done overall, keeping 8 of them around might be desirable. 

Right now it’s almost like you throw a dart at the wall with the list of relievers on it and where it lands is an equally valid and viable option.  As of the close of business July 3rd, the Mets still have as relief pitchers Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman, Reed Garrett, Deniel Nunez, Jose Butto, Adrian Houser and Ty Adcock.  The obvious move would be Adcock who is a 27 year old veteran of a single game with the Mets after a dozen with the Mariners in 2023.  He hasn’t done anything ostensibly wrong in his extremely limited Mets tenure, but he makes no money and has no stat sheet to wave positively.  For me, not having imploded buys him more time.  Nunez has been more good than bad so he is safe, too.

Now you get into the group of hurlers who have had several years in baseball on-again/off-again due to health or performance.  Ottavino is probably safe given his Mets and former Yankee ties to manager Carlos Mendoza.  Reed Garrett went from unhittable to unpredictable.  The early season good likely buys him some more time.  Adrian Houser likely has a soft spot with David Stearns who brought him on board from the Brewers where they both formerly worked.  Jose Butto was never a reliever but he has pitched effectively both in the minors and majors so he is likely a no-go. 

The odd man out here is 2024 free agent addition Jake Diekman.  Right now at age 37 he’s likely not going to blossom all of the sudden into a markedly better pitcher.  He has spent 13 seasons in the majors and while never pushing towards closing duties, he’s been a setup reliever and likely an artifact known as a LOOGY when it was possible to face a single hitter.  His ERA after the closing loss to the Nationals is 4.73.  He’s been in 36 games and is likely going to eclipse 70 by year’s end but he’s not showing that he’s contributing any real positives.  To be fair, he’s holding opposing hitters to a low batting average but he’s given up 21 walks to go along with his 31 strikeouts.  If he was not left handed (and if the club had another southpaw option) we’d be talking about a DFA for Diekman.  He earns $4 million this year and automatically renews for 2025 at the same rate if he appears in 58 games.  Tick-tock, tick-tock...

An old idea that may be worth considering again if you aren’t bringing in help via trades with other clubs is transitioning David Peterson to the pen to take the place of the Diekman left handed horror show.  Remember that Peterson started the season on the IL and was not penciled in to be a regular starter.  When Kodai Senga is ready to return someone’s got to go, so why not start thinking that way now?  Jose Butto could cover for Peterson in the rotation.

What do you all think?

Paul Articulates – relieve the relievers

The New York Mets have been on a pretty good run throughout June and into July.  It may get better soon, as the starting pitching is getting a boost.  Christian Scott has returned to the team, and pitched very well through six innings last night except for one unfortunate mistake that cost him three runs.  

Kodai Senga had a terrific 35 pitch start in a rehab assignment last night so we may finally see him after the all-star break.  Jose Butto is also back with the team, and although he relieved in his first outing there is potential for him to join the rotation as well.

The bullpen continues to look vulnerable, with no one shining in their relief outings which cost the Mets a game they should have won.  But if the starting pitching gains arms, then the pen could also gain arms as pitchers like Tylor Megill and David Peterson seem like targets to become relievers.  Both have terrific stuff, but have been unable to command it consistently for six innings.  

My thinking is that they could be used in 2-3 inning appearances instead of throwing three pitchers one inning apiece for multiple days.  This would keep guys like Diekman, Ottavino, and Garrett fresher.

Something more significant has to happen than the relief shuttle between Syracuse and New York.  To date that seems to have been the approach to keep bullpen arms rested, but none of us following the Mets would deem that an effective strategy.  So if the front office is realistic enough to understand that with 20 teams competing for the players that do come available at the trade deadline there is not a good deal to be had, then making an internal move like Megill to the pen seems sensible.

There are probably other scenarios that are being considered, and there is still about a month to go, but this is an approach that does not have to wait.  The bats are still hot, so more runs are being scored to support the pitching than any other time this season.  That won’t last forever, and by the time the red hot bats return to earth, the Mets need to have a much more solid approach to pitching if they want to remain in contention.

Happy Independence Day everyone!!

Tom Brennan: Mets Minors Hitters of Note; Pitchers Not Kept by the Mets

Man, who the heck is hitting enough to warrant some attention?

BEFORE I START: 

Mets blew another lead, losing 7-5. Edwin’s absence has been costly. Bryce Montes de Oca fanned 2 in 2/3 of an inning but also allowed 2 HRs in his first AAA outing. He is normally very homer-averse.

OK, now the article…

Sometimes you miss things since so much goes on down under in the Mets minors ecosystem. 

So I scoured thru. Let me list several. Stats through Saturday, June 29.

Before I start, though, Syracuse has been crushing it, winning like mad, but mostly due to veterans and aging minor leaguers.  OK….

1) One 5’7” AAA player deserves all playing time over another 5’7” player.

No, this does not involve the 5’7” LA Acuna.  He has had a great June, and no doubt the FO is well aware. Play LA daily.

It involves letting Carlos Cortes play all the time, and Yolmer Sanchez sitting more.

Cortes, hurt early, and again in June, is now 27. 

He can play 2nd, but not well. He is an ambidextrous OF and switch hitter.

He is .287/.375/.526 with 24 RBIs in 97 ABs. Solid. 

But he missed the first 4 weeks and then hit .210 in 56 ABs thru May. Washed up, right?  No.

In 11 games in June, Cortes is hitting .390/.432/.756. SIZZLE!

Play him every day.  Give him every single Sanchez AB.

Sanchez is a career .243 MLB hitter in about 2,500 PAs. Decent past.

Problem is, his hitting has completely regressed. 

Age-related regression is tough, as Joe Biden is discovering.  

Through June 29, the 32 year old regresser Sanchez is hitting .220 in June, but that low number is by far his best month, and he is hitting just .180 in 172 AAA at bats.

Let Rhylan Thomas play every single daggum day too. 

To his discredit, his lack of power caused him to not move his ranking in Anthony DeMayo’s recent update up from # 30.  He has to address that.

The difference, to climb, will be more robust AAA hitting from Thomas, and more power. His recent 5 homer-in-eleven-game stretch shows he understands that.  

He's hitting .248 in his first 33 AAA games, but I believe his AAA adjustment period is over and he will rake .300 the rest of the way,

Luke Ritter leads the Mets minors with 17 HRs, and 44 HRs in his 628 at bats in 2023 and 2024.  Impressive, when you think about it. No one else is close.

Drew Gilbert? Stuck on 25 at bats. Supposedly a mid-July returnee from his “mild” early April hamstring pull. We’ll see.

In AA:

Ryan Clifford continues to not hit for average. He is just 20 for 114 in AA, but 9 of the 20 hits are homers. 

In the hellhole for lefty hitters in Brooklyn, he hit just one homer in over 100 ABs. 

A crazy high 62 BBs in 68 games this year has his OBP of .382 nearly twice his .194 season average.  But if I want walkers, I’ll pick one up in a nursing home.

Clifford feels more and more like Kirk Nieuwenhuis to me. He needs a higher than Kirk ceiling….so I think his solution is to swing much more. 

In watching the Houston Astros game Saturday, announcers noted that the Astros are very low in walks AND in Ks. They swing a lot. They win a lot. 

Clifford has 85 Ks in 68 at bats, or 1.25 per game.  Forget the walks, cut that K rate in half, hit tons of rockets. You came from the Astros organization, copy their philosophy .

Ks? 

Rhylan Thomas in AA in 2023 and 2024 had 147 at bats, and fanned just 18 times. By comparison, Jaylen Palmer and Nolan McLean have a combined 158 AA at bats this year, with 83 Ks. Two extremely extreme extremes.

JT Schwartz - the knock on the 6’4” first baseman has always been a lack of game power.  He has hit .307 with a .423 OBP in May and June. Nice.

But, for the season, he has been up 229 times, with just 13 extra base hits, including just 3 HRs and 20 RBIs. Not nice.

Just 13 HRs in 1,080 PAs as a pro. JT must discover the Fountain of Power.

Matt Rudick - has not regained his excellent early 2023 form. Hitting just .225 and turns 26 on July 2. The ship may be sailing.

Kevin Parada - just 22 still, for another month, anyway, we need to remind ourselves. But he is hitting .211 and striking out too much. 

KP has come off the IL, and is 9 for 27 with 10 Ks and no walks over his last several games. Thrown out just 12 of 55 runners. If all goes well from here, at least until mid 2025 for him in the minors, maybe 2026. Maybe not at all? He certainly seems like a disappointing # 11 overall pick in 2022, unless and until he proves otherwise.

Jett Williams got grounded in April by his wrist injury that required surgery, and may return in August. Sad indeed. Get well, and playing, soon.

In High A:

Nick is the name…

Nick Morabito is hitting a mighty fine .332 between Lucie and Brooklyn. He's been on a tear all season. Gets on base a whole lot. Has stolen 34 of 42. Just 15 XBH in 298 PAs, and I expect a big uptick in power in 2025.  I’d get him to Binghamton by August 1.

Nick Lorusso RAKES in Brooklyn (.357/.437/.684) but just .194/.315/.343 on the road. Wow. Now THAT is a surprise. 9th round 1B in 2023 is hitting well in his first full year.

Jesus Baez is 19 until next spring training, and was just promoted to Brooklyn with some impressive overall 2924 numbers….hitting .264/.334/.451 with 11 homers! 9 of 10 steals. 

I have not focused on him much, but the 5’10” Baez has bumped up to # 21 Mets prospect in Joe DeMayo’s recent top 30. I watched some clips of 4 of the homers. None were fence scrapers. His strikeout rate is good, too. 

No one else in Cycloneville currently excites me as hitters. Sorry, fellas.

ST LUCIE? THE COMPLEX?

Boston Baro (.266) is also 19 and has Lucie’snumbers very comparable to the aforementioned Jesus Baez. Watch this Baro guy. He’s rising. 2023 8th rounder with high potential.

Another 19 year old Lucite, 4th round comp pick in 2023 AJ Ewing has a .372 OBP, Ks a bit high, but 7 HRs and a .464 slug.  2B and OF, another one to watch.

Colin Houck, # 32 overall, got off to an awful start this year with the Lucies. Would he get better? Yes. 

He was hitting .153 in mid-May.

But his average has climbed 60 points since. His power began to show up too.  He needed an adjustment period, he’s adjusted now, expect good things.  He is DeMayo’s # 7, and yes, he is 19, too.

Ronald Hernandez, the comparatively old man to the preceding 4, since he is now 20, is hitting .290/.385/.387 in 60 games. His 2nd of 3 HRs this year was a bomb so there is power there. 

Marco Vargas (DeMayo # 11) is highly ranked, hasn’t played much this year due to injuries.

Jeremy Rodriguez has slowed a bit in the Complex League but having a good season and is only just about to turn 18.

Daiverson Gutierrez just got promoted to the Complex league. 

Last year’s bomber in the DSL, 15-HR Jeffry Rosa, is hitting a scant .143 for St Lucie, and just .103 in June (7 for 68). Skipping him over the Complex League seems to have been a real mistake. Why not give him a breather by demoting him to the Complex League?  (They did so, as it turns out, on Monday - smart move).

And, of course, another bad hammy injury besides Gilbert’s has kept Jacob Reimer from playing so far this year. Bummer for Reimer.

That’s my look-see. 

Lots of other guys, but none of the unmentioned hitters have done enough in my mind to be worth mentioning. They are non-prospects until they prove otherwise with their lumber.

Baty I don’t include here. He is not any longer a prospect, just a major leaguer temporarily recycled to AAA.

Oh, and Ronny Mauricio is hitless in 2024. Also quite sad.

METS REPORT CARD ON PITCHERS NOT RETAINED IS PAINFUL

The Mets’ report card, in terms of retaining the right pitchers?

Not good.

Guys they’ve let go over the last few years have done this in 2024:

Zack Wheeler 9-4, 2.73

Marcus Stroman 7-3, 3.29

Chris Bassitt 7-6, 3.24

Seth Lugo 11-2, 2.17

That adds up to 34-15, 2.80. Ouch.

Tyrone Walker has had injuries and is 3-3 this year, but he was 15-6 with the Phillies last year. So he is 18-9, post-Mets.

Carlos Carrasco? 

Not doing well, but he was washed up last year, and the low budget Indians wanted him back.

Had the Mets brought him back after his horrible 2023, we all would have been upset, as the Cookie is well past his expiration date.

Jake?

He was smartly not retained, given his “Jakey-Breaky” injury risk profile.

Oh, I almost forgot, they let Scherzer and Verlander go in mid-2023. 

Both scuffling a bit this year, but faced one another in the World Series as ex-Mets on their new teams last year.

Lastly, Paul Sewald was 1-14 as a Met due to bad offensive support and bad coaching that led to too many bad outings.  

He was hurt early this year due to a leg injury, but in under 20 innings, the D Back has a 0.54 ERA this year, and 11 saves.  The Mets don't need anything like that, right?  Good as is in the pen.

He is 18-9, with 76 saves, and 271 Ks in 206 IP as an ex-Met.

Ouch!

Tom Brennan: High K Rates & Pitch Counts, Low Stability; What To Do With the Line Up

At least Peterson & Megill are far better than ex-Met Tom Szapucki

Tylor Megill, in his 4th season, and just got sent down - again.

This year, in AAA and the majors, he's fanned 72 in 53 innings. 304 Ks in 302 career MLB innings.

But his Mets WHIP is 1.44 this year, and 1.42 career.  His career ERA is 4.76, and is 5.08 this year.  

And he occasionally gets into the 5th inning in his starts, rarely gets to the 6th, and almost never gets to the 7th.  He is 19-20 career.

Yet, his stuff is good.

David Peterson (5th MLB season) has not gotten sent down again.

This year, in AAA and the majors (before his nice 6.1 inning outing on Monday), he fanned 55 in 51 innings. 383 Ks in 360 career MLB innings.

But his Mets WHIP is 1.48 this year, and 1.42 career.  His career ERA is 4.45, and is 3.67 this year.  

He also has trouble getting deep into games in his starts. He is 21-21 career.

Yet, his stuff is good.

Questions:

What can they do to improve?

Could they be far more successful pitching out of the bullpen?

Or…just pound the zone more?

What say you, readers?

WHAT TO DO WITH THE LINE UP AND PEN?

First of all, in a bizarre continuation of player "action" starting with Edwin's "sticky situation" 10 days ago, Drew Smith gets seriously hurt, Starling Marte goes out for a month (at least) with a bone bruise in his knee, Reid Foley is back (no surprise) no time soon, Tyler Jay and Matt Festa get called up and lit up in their outings, etc.

Then...more bizarre stuff:

JD Martinez was scratched from last night's game due to ankle soreness which (i kid you not) he attributed to a late shipment of Adidas spikes. Martinez ordered a different pair from elsewhere, wore them the night he hit the 3 run 10th inning shot on Monday, woke up sore Tuesday, and felt a sharp pain in his ankle in BP and sat it out to get treatment.  Where are those darned shoes?

Harrison Bader I am always concerned about due to past missed time.  So, not surprisingly, he crashed into the outfield wall last night, came out, and apparently will be available on Wednesday.

We badly need Martinez and Bader to be healthy, period.  Without Marte and Bader, we'd be left with the totally underwhelming offensive duo of Tyrone Taylor and DJ Stewart.  Combined, they were excellent in April, but could not be worse in May thru now.  

Tyrone Taylor since the last 3 games he played in April is 20 for 113, and take out his 4 for 5 game in June and over all the other games in that stretch, he is 16 for 108 (.148).  He did make one heck of a leaping catch at the wall vs. Washington, but that .148 number is quite disturbing.

Jeff McNeil ditto  -  he was not great in April but he was pretty decent. I think we thought warmer weather would awaken his bat. Nope.

The 2022 batting champ has been horrific since April.  Just .202 in May, .194 in June, and 1 for 9 in July.

So:

Let's pray JD and Bader (.270) are OK and ready to play. Pray very hard.  

They are vitally needed.

Let's also bench McNeil and play Jose Iglesias almost every day, too.  

Jose is hitting .388 in 49 ABs with 10 RBIs since his recall, and a .280 career hitter, while Jeff (.215) has driven in just 19 in 267 at bats.  

Ride the hot bat.  Last night, in the 10th, Iglesias shot a liner down the line to left - foul by inches. So, he then proceeds to drive a double down the right field line.  I'd sit McNeil if possible until the All Star break, and then try to re-start him.

I would also call up Brett Baty at the earliest opportunity and put him at 2B when Iglesias does not play, and give Vientos a day off here and there.  Baty's had 91 AAA at bats since his demotion and is hitting .319, and he did not hit well as a Met, but he hit better than McNeil has.   

PINPOINT PEN CONTROL

100 MPH Mets pitchers? Minors starter Brandon Sproat, chosen to pitch in the Futures Game this month.

And relievers Shintaro Fujinami and Bryce Montes de Oca.

When last we saw Shintaro Fujinami, he was extraordinarily wild.  Steve Blass wild.  So now he is rehabbing.  His last 2 rehab outings in A and AA were perfect 1-2-3 innings.

In those two games, he totaled just 14 pitches - all 14 were for strikes.  

Stop and ponder that one.  Blass has turned into Saberhagen.

Bryce Montes de Oca's last 2 AA rehab outings, also 1-2-3 innings. Bryce, whose control has often been concerning, needed 17 pitches in the 2 outings, 13 of which were strikes.  

He just got bumped to Syracuse, which tells me we could see him in Queens perhaps as soon as next week, with Fujinami not far behind.  

Two fireballing control freaks.  I like that.

TONG TERRIFIC

Jonah Tong continues to amaze. 

He went 5 innings for Brooklyn last night, fanned 7 and allowed 1 hit in the 5th inning. This 21 year old righty is 4-1, 2.17 between Lucie and Brooklyn, and 99 Ks in 66 innings.  13.5 per 9 IP.

He has a major league velocity fastball with significant, controllable movement, and has other fine pitches he mixes together well. 

He deserves, even if it seems rapid, to be promoted to Binghamton. 

Why?

1) He's had 11 outings already for Brooklyn, after he dismantled FSL opposing hitters at the start of 2024.

2) Last 3 outings for Brooklyn, 16 innings, 1 run, 5 hits, 25 Ks. Stunning.

Right after the Futures game, I would promote Sproat to AAA, and promote Tong to AA.

KODAI THE CYCLONE

Read this:

“Brooklyn Cyclones announced that RHP Kodai Senga is slated to make a Major League rehab start with the team on Wednesday evening against Hudson Valley at Maimonides Park.”

- Another bright light at the edge of the horizon.

LGM

Reese Kaplan -- A Different Approach to Promoting Brett Baty

As the trade deadline approaches no one is sure what to expect from the front office.  During the first game of July it appears that the Mets have followed up on their strong June the same way with a come-from-behind effort against the Nationals.  Many on the fence about buy or sell are going to have to wait for a philosophical and business decision made on expiring contracts and the hot hitting of Brett Baty in AAA. 

What occurred to me just recently watching regular All Star slugger J.D. Martinez is not only how much he has helped the club after his late start, but also how instrumental he has been in seeing a few of the younger hitters all of the sudden step up a level.  

We all know how markedly better the should-be All Star catcher Francisco Alvarez has been.  Today, however, let’s take a little look more closely at Mark Vientos.

Thus far everyone is focused on what he’s doing now with the bat while at the same time griping about how he plays the field and chomping at the bit to hand the position over to Brett Baty.  I’m certainly one who has advocated playing both of them for all of August and September to help decide what you have here with their overall abilities.  The question is how and where.

For the most part people have envisioned having Vientos make a diagonal trek across the diamond to man first base assuming the decision is made to peddle away free-agent-to-be Pete Alonso.  While that would be a seemingly acceptable solution, Alonso would be leaving massive shoes to fill and Vientos would forever be associated as the cause rather than the effect of the club trading away their all-time best home run hitter.  No matter how well Vientos did there if he didn’t hit 40 HRs people would gripe.

Curiosity got the better of me while watching J.D. Martinez in Monday’s game.  He is hitting a highly respectable .274 with 9 HRs and 34 RBIs over 208 ABs.  That is a pace a little low on power but tracking close to 100 RBIs if he had played a full season.  His slugging percentage is .476 and his OBP is .831.  Those two numbers are slightly below his career norms, but no one here is complaining that the $12 million man is not worth every penny paid. 

Not to be unfair to Pete Alonso, but his 17 HRs and 46 are certainly desirable.  Unfortunately his SLG of .474 and his OBP of .808 are good but not even up to the level that the 36 year old Martinez is delivering. 

Now comes the surprising part.  Mark Vientos is hitting over .300, has 10 HRs and 26 RBIs in 139 ABs with a SLG of .585 and an OPS of .947.  Now the batting average is probably the biggest surprise and as the league adjusts to him as a regular player those other metrics may tick down a bit as well. 

The funky idea that hit me was perhaps the Mets do their very best to extend hometown hero Pete Alonso, trade away solid hitting J.D. Martinez and instead of Vientos crossing over to 1st base, have him take over the DH duties which would also remove his below average fielding from the game and open up a spot for Brett Baty to play.  

There should be no long term loyalty for Martinez who is a first year Met and will be 37 next season.  Obviously he would cost far less than would Alonso, but this approach would be creating a way for all of Alonso, Vientos and Baty to be in the lineup every day.

All that being said, of course, you still have to figure out what to do with Starling Marte once he recovers.  I have a feeling the Mets will be insisting he come back by the end of the third week of July to show for a week he’s healthy enough to play to open up a trade opportunity, though if they keep him as he enters his later 30s and suffering with defense in RF perhaps he is a viable DH candidate as well.

SAVAGE VIEWS – Act Two

Here we are at the midway point of the season and the Mets are a mediocre 40-41.  At the start of the season, many contributors to this site would have been happy to be sitting where we are now.  We easily, though, could have won at least another 6-7 games if the bullpen was simply average. 

While our pen has performed below expectations, much of the blame can be laid at the feet of Diaz.  Clearly, entering a crucial point of the year without our closer has had a negative impact.

Funny, but in just a few weeks we went from vying for a lottery pick in next year’s draft to being one of the better teams in baseball. Remember when we were considered to be light years away from the Braves? Now we are in competition with them for a wild-card spot.  Injuries can be a great equalizer.  

The Yankees are ranked as a top five team.  The reality is that we field a stronger lineup one through nine with a better bench. Except for the dynamic duo of Judge and Soto the Yankees’ lineup is underwhelming. The Yankees pen is the difference maker.

Prior to the season, I projected the Mets as a playoff bound team. I also predicted they would average about 5 runs per game – they are just short of that number. Their offensive numbers are up in spite of below average production from McNeil and Alonso, although there have been recent signs of each improving. In my wildest imagination I could not have forecast Nimmo leading the team in RBIs at the half-way point.

There’s no disagreement on what needs to be done to remain competitive. The starting rotation needs to provide greater depth and the bullpen needs to be greatly improved.  Getting Diaz back is a major plus, but more is needed.  

We have the resources to acquire a top-of-the-line reliever whether it’s trading from our surplus of SPs or moving prospects.  Help may already be in our system if Megill and Peterson are moved to the pen, as they should be.  Neither has shown the capability to get past four innings as starters.

It befuddles me that Stewart is making his way into the lineup and in the five spot no less. We should look for an upgrade.  Also, I would take offers for JD Martinez.  JD has had a nice stretch where he was the best hitter on the team. His trade value is probably high and perhaps will result in a nice return. It’s time to bring back Baty to determine if he’s a viable option for 2025.

Once again, another interesting week lies ahead.  I would not be satisfied with anything less than winning five of seven.

July 1, 2024

MACK -.Tuesday Morning Observations

 

Morning.

Look, the 2024 future of right field is fluid. The new injury to Starling Marte has created some questions. When can he begin to ramp up? When will he be back in right? Will these injuries continue?

One of the solutions would be to bring in a rental that specializes in that position for a mid-level chip.

So, I went to mlbtr.com and downloaded all the names of right fielders that are scheduled to become free agents at the end of this season. We will discuss the current teams they are on later.

They, and their current stat line, are:

Brian Anderson - Atlanta- 

   .000, 0-HR, 0-RBI

Michael Conforto - SF

   .232, 9-HR, 29-RBI

Joey Gallo - Nats

   .164, 5-HR, 23-RBI

Randal Grichuk - D-Backs

   .294, 2-HR, 17-RBI

Teoscar Hernandez - LAD

   .252, 18-HR, 55-RBI

Jason Heyward - LAD

   .220, 4-HR, 17-RBI

Max Kepler - Minny 

   .245, 6-HR, 28-RBI

Whit Merriman - Philly 

   .195, 3-HR, 9-RBI

Hunter Renroe - KC

   .202, 7-HR, 27-RBI

Anthony Santander- Balt 

   .228, 21-HR, 53-RBI

Alex Verdugo - NYY

   .247, 9-HR, 41-RBI

Thoughts...

   - slim pickings

   - KC (Renfroe), Minny (Kepler), Arizona (Grichuk), SF (Conforto), the Dodgers (Hernandez) and the Orioles (Santander) are in the middle of their own race, so picking one of these  off the tree seems slim.

   - That leaves Verdugo (NYY), who is in the middle of a horrible slump and is a free agent next season. The Yanks would probably demand a top chip for this guy.

The option of Tyler Megill to Syracuse could be the last time we see him as a starter. My guess is he will replace Jose Butto as the long term SP1 upstate, but the Mets may want to take this opportunity to begin converting him into a reliever. 

Lastly...

We all know the Mets need relievers. And I think it is safe to say that the Mets will be adding at least one rental this month to the pen. The question is what will this cost the Mets.

Teams that trade rentals are trying to lower team salaries, so we should assume one or more of our affiliate prospects will be on the chopping block. Which ones? Well, I don't know for certain, but this would be my list of prospects that are safe, and the ones that aren't:

Syracuse - 

  safe:  Christian Scott, Jose Butto, Luisangel Acuna

  not safe:  Blade Tidwell, Luke Ritter, Brett Baty

Binghamton - 

  safe:  Brandon Sproat

  not safe:  Alex Ramirez, Kevin Parada, Ryan                                 Clifford, Jett Williams

Brooklyn -

  safe:  Nick Morabito, Douglas Orellana 

  not safe:  Jesus Baez, Christopher Suero,

            Jonah Tong, Nick Lorusso, Kade Morris

St. Lucie and below:

  safe:   no one

Mets Moves: 

      LHRP Tyler Jay promoted  from AAA

      RHRP Matt Festa promoted from AAA

      LHRP Brooks Raley to 60-day IL

   Syracuse:

      RHRP Carlos Guzman promoted from AA

      RHSP Tylor Megill reassigned from Mets

      LHRP Danny Young reassigned from Mets

    Binghamton:

      OF Duke Ellis DFA'd

    St. Lucie:

       IF Diego Mosquera transferred from FCL

    FCL:

       OF Jeffry Rosa transferred from St. Lucie

       C Andriel Lantigua traded to Colorado

   

Tom Brennan: Hogan Windish; Bryce Montes de Oca; and Dead Wood

Bryce Montes de Oca Ten Years Ago - He Impressed Over the Weekend 

You never heard of Hogan Windish?  Me neither.

Probably for good reason. He usually doesn't hit very well, as it turns out.

Other than one particularly noteworthy game this week, Windish has hit just 3 HRs and driven in just 21 runs in 2024 while hitting just .205.

Pretty mediocre.

Oh, but that one other game...

In it, Seattle prospect Windish hit 4 HRs and drove in all 9 runs for his team.

Baseball is interesting, wouldn't you say?

Bryce Montes de Oca? 

He has put up back to back stellar one inning relief outings for the AA Ponies.

First of the two games, 7 pitches, 6 strikes, 1-2-3.

Sunday's game, 10 pitches, 7 strikes. two strikeouts, and 1-2-3.

Maybe the healthy elbow is allowing the rehabbing Oak to throw in a more unrestricted fashion, and more accurately.  

Small sample, sure, but....

Keep this up, and he'll be back in Queens soon.   

BULLPEN - AND DEAD WOOD

Yes, the bullpen was capsized by Sticky Edwin, whose perfidy engulfed Drew Smith, too.

The bullpen flopped 2 straight games.  I put that in large part on Edwin. 

But before making the pen the sole culprit, the continual light hitting of McNeil (.217), Taylor (.229) and Stewart (.183) continued, as the trio combined to go 0 for 13.  Dump one of those three tomorrow, now that the series is over, and let's get real hitters.  We're in a real pennant race, no time for coddling. 

What’s that, you say? You’re sure, now that 81 games are in the books, that in the next 81 games, all 3 will hit .300?  Then Dr. Ronny Jackson wants to test you for mental acuity, too.

Open Thread: Happy With Nimmo Contract, Or Not?

Some feel the Nimmo 8 year, $160 million contract that runs him through age 37 was a bad one, and see evidence of badness in his declining offense.

Yes, the 31 year old Nimmo is only hitting .247.

But his OBP in 2024 is a still-strong .368, close to his career norms.  

And exclude his 1 for 21 in his first 5 games, which were essentially played inside a Frigidaire, and he has hit a solid .260 since.

He hit .315/.406/.598 in June, so has he just had a slow start that has now corrected itself?  Seems absolutely so.

And what is slow about 50 RBIs in 77 games played, especially when in 40 of those games, he was batting lead off?  

50 RBIs is 22nd best in baseball, very impressive for a player who has batted lead off in the majority of his games.

He is hitting .338/.466/.592 with runners in scoring position this year.

So…

They signed Nimmo for 8 years (6 years to run after this year). Even  though he is paid a level $20 million a year, one would expect age-related decline into his later 30s, so I estimated below his “age-based salary” (if you tried to match his expected age-related performance to dollars, which is what they really are paying him for).  

The club understood that, and so did Nimmo, when he signed the $162 million deal, that his best production was likely to occur in the contract’s early years.

His age-adjusted contract, had it been signed that way, would probably have been more like $30MM year 1, $27MM year 2, $24MM year 3, $21MM year 4, $19MM year 5, $16MM year 6, $13MM year 7, and $10MM year 8.  

In other words, when they signed that contract with him, they expected him at age 30 to play like a $30MM player, and this year to play like a $27MM player.  

In 2023, he production-wise appeared to be a $30MM-equivalent player (.274/.363/.466 in 152 games, with 24 HRs, 36 doubles/triples, 74 RBIs (again, mostly as a lead off hitter), and 89 runs scored.  

His RBIs and very solid OBP so far in 2024 clearly seem to support a $27MM-equivalent ballplayer salary.  And he has been very durable in 2023 and 2024.

Continuing to think along this logical approach, it appears they are satisified they properly paid him for 2023 and 2024, and really hope he will provide $103 million in value in 2025-30, over the last 6 years ($160MM - ($30MM year 1 + $27MM year 2)), even though he’ll actually get paid $120 million over the last 6 years.

So...is Nimmo's contract looking to you a bad contract or good contract, and why?

Paul Articulates – We need some relief

The Mets have continued to show some mettle, as they battled the red-hot Astros in a three game series with two very close games.  Unfortunately, they also showed their greatest weakness, which cost them the chance to take the series.  Of course I am talking about the bullpen.

The Mets have had some success this year with their bullpen, but recently it has been much harder to find bright spots.  The loss of Brooks Raley to season-ending injury earlier this year hurt.  Certainly the lack of a great closer in all but a few games has been most painful.  The recent news that Drew Smith was gone to surgery as well was another gut punch to the pen.  

I still believe that the biggest issue has been the inability of the starters to go deep into games.  Tylor Megill’s 5.1 inning start on Saturday followed an inexcusable 93 pitch four inning start by Jose Quintana.  Those two starts forced another overuse of the bullpen and left Carlos Mendoza with very few cards in his hand as the Mets’ Sunday comeback pushed the game into extra innings.  So in the 11th inning of a winnable game, Mendoza had to turn to a first time Major Leaguer to hold down a very hot Houston team.

Matt Festa was a reasonable call-up when the Mets needed bullpen help.  He had pitched to a 0.91 WHIP with a .204 average against in 11 games at the AAA level.  This is the kind of guy you want to use in the 7th inning of a not-so-close game to see how his stuff translates at the next level.  

Instead, he was thrust into a role where he had to open the inning with a man on second and needed a shut-down inning.  Festa pitched reasonably well, getting several two strike counts, but just didn’t have a put-away pitch so the major league hitters on the Astros treated him to an unfriendly welcome party by scoring five runs.

The Mets’ pen is not totally bad – though they are worn out.  Adrian Houser was a pleasant surprise when his duty moved from back end starter to bull pen long man.  Raley, Smith, and Sean Reid-Foley all performed pretty well when they were fully healthy.  

Dedniel Nunez and Danny Young have produced some good innings and even Jorge Lopez looked good early in the season before he lost his glove as well as his job.  But how many times can you go to the well to find more arms to replace injured, suspended, or just plain tired pitchers?  

The Mets just need relief, and they are going to have to look for it in the mid-season trades.  Whether we wanted it or not, the Mets will not be sellers at the deadline.  Accepting that, the front office has to turn their attention to who might be available and how much it will cost.  That is not an easy target, because most teams in contention are always looking to strengthen their pen for the stretch run.  

There certainly will not be a Josh Hader out there to acquire, so the target will more likely be someone in middle relief that can take the pressure off Nunez, Ottavino, Diekman, Garrett, and eventually Diaz.

I still wonder why that middle relief has not come in the form of a Tylor Megill or David Peterson, who like Houser have not turned in many quality starts this year, but are still capable of getting outs against MLB teams.  Kodai Senga has still not returned, but there are guys like Jose Butto, Christian Scott, and maybe even Joey Lucchesi that can offer starts if Megill and/or Peterson gets moved to the pen.  

It has not happened yet, so I believe there must be some tangible reason that the Mets are reluctant to make that move.   Maybe it has to do with the fact that some of the front line pitching prospects like Mike Vasil, Dom Hamel, and Blade Tidwell have not progressed as fast in AAA as expected.

That is why, especially at this time of year that we look to the trade market.  It is just a difficult time to do so with so many teams competing for so many wild card spots and very few teams going into full sell mode.  

It will be very interesting to see how the month of July plays out.  What kind of internal moves are going to be made before the deadline, and what will the fall-out be after the deadline?  

The results will become a telling sign on the effectiveness of all the moves made in the front office and player development areas in recent years.  This is when they earn their keep.

Reese Kaplan -- When to Give Up on a Failed Prospect

One of the most frequent question with no clear answer is how long do you give a young player who delivered handily in the minor leagues but seems to have hit the wall with a promotion to the majors?  

Sometimes you have a player who is given season after season to establish himself both on the field and at the plate (if a hitter).  Or you have a pitcher who needs to be difficult to hit and show the health necessary to perform regularly without needing the Hubbel telescope to find the strike zone. 

An example of the former close to home would be Tomas Nido who has had 845 major league at bats, is now 30 years old and owns a career .212 batting average. 

Some could easily argue that his extended look from 2017 through 2024 was far more than enough.  When he was DFA’d this time he was hitting just .125.  It’s highly unlikely he would ever hit a magic switch and convert himself into a player who wouldn’t make you involuntarily cringe every time he stepped to the plate.

Also a quite familiar name to Mets fans would be the example of just farmed out Tylor Megill.  Now many might right to say that the move was done to help fortify the team during its 17 game stretch without a day off when the club is already without Edwin Diaz temporarily, Brooks Raley and now Drew Smith as well.  

However, dig a little deeper and you see that his 2024 performance does not reflect his mostly solid spring training, but more similar to the rest of his career.  

His current ERA is 5.08 which is actually worse than the 4.76 we’d come to expect, his WHIP is a cautionary 1.44 and the best thing you can say is that his strikeout numbers have increased to 11.5 per 9 IP.  Having already appeared in 66 major league games (60 as a starter) he has had the aggregate of about two full pitching years to show what he can do.  

Unless they figure to convert him into a short term hard throwing reliever, the now 28 year old’s prospect window has slammed shut as a member of the starting rotation. 

Now it’s not always like this with slow starters.  The Hall of Fame example, of course, is third baseman Mike Schmidt who started his career looking absolutely nothing like the hitter he would become.  During a 40 AB first look in 1972 he hit a sallow .206 without showing much.  During 1973 when he had a full rookie season his batting average dropped to .196 with over 33% of his ABs ending in strikeout.  

No one could foresee that the following year he would make the All Star team, his batting average would jump to .282 and the run production was terrific with 36 HRs and 116 RBIs.  He even threw in 23 SBs, too.  He hadn’t even yet earned the first of his total of 9 straight Gold Gloves plus an extra one later on. 

On the pitching side of the ledger, strikeout artist Randy Johnson is a great example as well.  He was a rookie in 1989 when he went 7-13 with a Megill-like ERA of 4.76.  It wasn’t until 1993 that he started to look like the Cooperstown bound pitcher he would become all well after the age of 30.  

That season he finished 2nd by one vote in the Cy Young Award voting by going 19-8 with a 3.24 ERA and leading the league with 308 strikeouts.  He would go on to win 5 Cy Young Awards, earn 303 wins and finish his career with 4875 strikeouts. 

So that brings us back to the original question.  How long do you wait and endure mediocrity in the hope that a hitter or pitcher will deliver what you foresaw for many years?  David Stearns is going to have to deal with this question on not just Megill, but also with David Peterson and others.  

The jury is still out on youngster Brett Baty, though it would appear that the strikeout and error prone Mark Vientos has shown enough with the bat to say he’s no longer a question mark.