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4/22/25

IN FOCUS - MY Tuesday Observations - Ellissalt, Megill

 


Pitch Profiler                      @pitchprofiler

TYLOR MEGILL IS THAT DUDE


Tangotiger                  @tangotiger

Statcast Aging Curve for Swing Speed (updated with 2025 data)

I also included quasi-best-fit line, which you can play around with as more data comes in. This line in vertex form (which is much much much easier to understand than off-putting quadratic):

-.02*(Age - 25.5) + 72


Thomas Nestico                 @TJStats

Best 4-Seam Fastball Z-Whiff%


4-Seam Fastball Z-Whiff% is a great indicator for assessing the best FF in MLB. Typically, pitchers fill the zone with their FF, so if they are able to generate whiffs on their most hittable pitches, they will have a lot of success


Tylor Megill continues to dominate as he fired off 5.1 IP with 10 K and 0 ER



He lowered his season ERA to 1.09

CYLOR MEGILL!


Starters ERA vs Bullpen ERA



Mets Analytics                   @MetsAnalytics

Entering a huge series with the Phillies, the Mets have their best division odds of the season, which have nearly tripled since the start of the year.



Thomas Nestico                 @TJStats



5 Hot Starts that Matter – Pitchers

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzQbdrKdvSgzBbdHzHffkdKvBXvh

Tylor Megill

Tylor Megill has always been known for his incredibly deep arsenal, which contains pitches such as his aptly named “American Fork.” Megill’s flexibility and feel for picking up new pitches have always intrigued me. Still, inconsistencies have kept his results from matching the intrigue.

Megill is off to a hot start with a 1.40 ERA and 2.19 FIP across 19.1 innings. You may be inclined to think that he added yet another pitch; however, his arsenal is smaller than ever before. In his current form, Megill is effectively a 3-pitch pitcher: a mid-90s rising fastball, a mid-80s tight two-plane slider, and a mid-90s running sinker. Typically, pitchers want to add in new pitches to their arsenal to address holes in their approach. Megill didn’t need to add any more pitches; he already threw 8 distinct offerings in 2024. The reason why shrinking Megill’s arsenal to 3 pitches works well is because they are his 3 best offerings, and he can mix and match them to handle both LHH and RHH. Against RHH, he goes heavy sinker and slider, and against LHH, he leans on his fastball.

Megill also has another weapon on his side: elite stuff. Each of his offerings grades out above average according to tjStuff+ with his fastball registering an elite 113 score. His combination of velocity, extension, and ability to impart movement on his pitches elevates their effectiveness. He has also exhibited solid command this season, and while the whiffs are slightly below average, he is generating plenty of chases.

This subdued version of Megill feels ideal. He is leaning on his best pitches and has refined them to make them better. The Mets pitching development team tends to get the best out of their arms, and Megill looks to be yet another example.


12 comments:

  1. The graph I put up here about aging curve is not the history of my sex drive

    Baseball players stayed in the game far past when I scored

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  2. No one likes me anymore 😔

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  3. really liked the TJStats on Megill and the aging curve on swing speed. never thought Megill would be that good a starter and that he needed to switch to the BP to be a top reliever like his brother; her's certainly proving me wrong. as to the aging curve on swing speed, as hot as Pete Alonso is, it shows David Sterns is correct not to want to sign him long term; his hitting will probably fall of a cliff after a couple of more years.

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    1. now you just need to move to my over age 55 community, then you'll be me middle aged friend. amazing what happens to everyone when you've lived in a community like that for 19 years.

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  4. I missed this post. The aging curve speaks volumes. We can worry about Pete extension when the time comes.

    What would be interesting is an analysis of those stars who have defied this aging curve.

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    1. I'd love to see a pitcher curve graph

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  5. Funny that Elissault’s velocity on different pitches mirrors Megill’s.

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    1. We probably need at least 10 more appearances by pen prospects to determine if they are possibly the real deal 😉

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  6. Maybe moving these from 5:00 to 7:30?

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  7. Bat speed….Marcel Ozuna is 34.5 years old, and hitting .323 with a .481 OBP. BAT MUST BE QUICK!

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    Replies
    1. The faster the bat, the harder it makes for the ball hit to be stopped

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