Mets Mailbag
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6653579/2025/09/23/mets-mailbag-meltdown-pete-alonso/
Any insight into how the team views the long-term future of Baty, Vientos and Alvarez? — Will C.
Will: From the perspective of people within the Mets, per conversations with them, the outlooks for all three players seem to remain high. Baty’s name came up a bunch at the trade deadline, but not as a candidate — he was a main reason the Mets did not acquire infield help. The Mets could’ve dealt Vientos at the trade deadline but decided against shipping him out for a rental. And people within the club point to Alvarez as, potentially, an important leadership voice down the road — if he can stay healthy and be productive. These players all have flaws. They’ve had ups and downs. For the most part, they seem to be well thought of. Out of the three, however, Vientos stands out as someone who has had less time to navigate slumps this season. His inability to consistently defend well is largely why (if he’s not hitting, there goes his value).
Updated 2025 MLB Free Agent Predictions on Top Stars Available
Bo Bichette, Shortstop, Toronto Blue Jays
After an uncharacteristically mediocre 2024, Bichette bounced back in Toronto this season, hitting .311 with 18 home runs, 94 RBI, and an OPS of .840. He created six runs per 27 outs and was a driving force behind the Blue Jays' playoff push.
More importantly, he is really the only notable shortstop hitting the market this off-season, increasing his value for teams in need at the position.
The question is whether Toronto, which already has invested 14 years and $500 million in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., will push the payroll to unforeseen levels, especially considering the need at starting pitching, where Chris Bassitt is a free agent this off-season.
Will Bichette even remain at shortstop, where he has struggled defensively, to put it lightly? Or will a team in need of a first or third baseman seize the opportunity to offer him a sizeable deal to switch positions?
On the one hand, it would seem rather unlikely that he leaves Toronto, given how important he was offensively to the team's rejuvenation this season. However, money and the potential for a positional shift could lead the second-generation player away from the Blue Jays.
Prediction: Bichette stays in Toronto, earns near Willy Adames' $180 million
Lance
Brozdowski lancebroz@substack.com
Marlins Sandy Alcantara had
a 3.51 xFIP and a 17% K-BB in his final 10 starts of the season, an improvement
from the 4.25 xFIP 11% K-BB from June and July. The largest driver of this
improvement was success against right-handed hitters. His K-BB jumped from 16%
to 25% as he almost doubled his right-right changeup usage from earlier in the
year to 29%. His changeup was his best expected run value pitch down the
stretch, not only because it was great in two-strike spots, but mostly because
he began using it in the first or second pitch of an at-bat way more (12% to
25%, cutting his slider from 19% to 7%). We also saw the success of his
four-seamer jump due to a location change on the offering. He used it more as a
deep-count called-strike offering away from hitters (see below).
Sandy’s lefty approach never fully corrected to his 2022
days of better miss and less damage. We saw a push toward his changeup and
curveball and away from his slider late in the year that didn’t really work.
I’ll continue to say that I don’t understand his four-seam location to lefties,
which is mostly over the plate despite the damage it allows. The pitch’s
location became more elevated, but it wasn’t as clearly up as it was in 2022.
It’s fair to project Sandy as a 3.6-3.8 ERA pitcher into next season. A stronger
projection means you’re assuming some leap I presently don’t see against
lefties. Maybe it’s as simple as elevating the pitch like in 2022.
Mets 2025 fWAR leaders by GM who acquired them:
6.1 Lindor (Porter)
5.8 Soto (Stearns)
3.6 Alonso (d. Alderson, s. Stearns)
3.1 Peterson (Alderson)
3.0 Nimmo (d. Alderson, s. Eppler)
2.3 Baty (Van Wagenen)
2.1 McNeil (d. Alderson, s. Eppler)
2.0 Díaz (t. Van Wagenen, s. Eppler)
1.9 Alvarez (Alderson)
1.9 Holmes (Stearns)
1.6 Torrens (Stearns)
1.5 Megill (Alderson)
1.4 Senga (Eppler)
1.2 McLean (Eppler)
Tyler
Jennings @TylerJennings24
With the MLB regular season now over, here's the current
odds for the draft lottery, which will take place in December
COL, WSH, LAA are all ineligible to pick higher than 10th
due to revenue sharing rules. STL was moved to a "tax recipient"
prior to 2025, making them eligible.
Thomas
Nestico @TJStats
AL & NL Batting Title Winner
WHEEEEEEE!
Pitch Profiler @pitchprofiler
A picture-perfect ending to a
picture-perfect career.
These 9 Mets might as well pack
their bags
RHP Ryan Helsley
The Mets aggressively pursued rentals, thinking they had
a great shot of winning this season, but that obviously was not the case. Ryan
Helsley was the biggest of the rentals, and the biggest flop of the deadline in
the majors.
By pairing him with Edwin Diaz, the Mets thought they had
formed one of the best late-game bullpen duos in the majors. Diaz lived up to
his end of the bargain, but Helsley posted a 7.20 ERA in 22 appearances with
New York. What's even crazier is that he actually pitched better down the
stretch, not allowing a single run in his final seven innings of work. He
lowered his ERA from 11.08 to one above 7.00 by finishing strongly.
Perhaps Helsley has figured out whatever was troubling
him and will have a huge 2026, but he'll have to prove that while wearing
another uniform. It did not work out in Queens, and that's a very sad reality.
9 biggest MLB collapses in
history ranked, from the 2025 Mets to the 2011 Braves and Red Sox
3. New
York Mets, 2007
Playoff format: Eight teams, four in each league
Key Players: Carlos Beltran,
David Wright, Carlos
Delgado, Jose Reyes, Tom Glavine
Building the lead: Coming off an NLCS appearance, the
2007 New York Mets were a star-studded team with championship aspirations.
Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Jose Reyes led a strong lineup, while future
hall-of-famer Tom Glavine was the leader of the pitching staff.
For most of the season, the Mets had the NL East lead,
which reached as high as seven games a few times during the season. In a
wide-open National League, New York was a World Series favorite.
The collapse: With 17 games left in the season, the Mets
blew a seven-game division lead to the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies. New York
went 5-11 to close out the season, which included a three-game sweep to the
Phillies and several series losses to the lowly Washington Nationals and
Florida Marlins.
Still, all the Mets needed to do to make the playoffs was
win the last game of the year against the Marlins. However, Glavine allowed
seven runs in the first inning, ending New York's chances before they even got
a chance to bat.
It took mere minutes for the Mets to make their historic collapse even worse
Sure, Mendoza was given a bad hand in certain respects, from regression from core players like Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos to a pitching staff that was being held together with duct tape by the end of the year to a deeply underwhelming haul at the trade deadline. Even within those parameters, though, it's hard to understand the way he managed this team.
Above all else, Mendoza just patently refused to show the urgency required, especially once the Mets had put themselves in a position where every game was going to matter quite a bit for their playoff odds. He kept forcing players like Cedric Mullins and Ryan Helsley into key spots and refused to treat high-leverage moments with the desperation they deserved. Heck, he threw Edwin Diaz during Saturday's blowout win despite already having a huge lead, and despite knowing that he was almost certainly going to need to call upon Diaz again with the season on the line on Sunday.
And speaking of Sunday: It's all too fitting that the Mets watched their season go up in smoke with guys like Ryne Stanek on the mound, a frankly baffling decision that felt overengineered and unresponsive to the actual moment. He was pathologically incapable of projecting confidence, and his in-game decisions did not put the team in the best position to win all too often. Not overreacting to a very bad stretch of baseball when there's still plenty of reason for optimism moving forward is one thing — and yes, Mets fans, the future remains bright — but this just feels like stubbornness.
Mets Prospect Group @bkfan09
Dayron Oramas (INF) Will Officially Sign With the Mets On January 15, 2026
We are in for such a depressing set of conversations for the next 6 months
ReplyDeleteNot if I can help it
DeleteHelsley HAD troubles. So, a few years back, did Diaz . It is what happens GOING FORWARD that counts.
ReplyDeleteMark Vientos is heavily favored to beat Vogelbach in a foot race. But it will be close. No, you are not watching the race in slow motion.
I want Helsley back. Over the hiccups. One of the best relievers out therr
DeleteIt would make this season worth it if the Mets won the draft lottery.
ReplyDeleteDon't dream on this
DeleteVientos did not show up in the fWAR list. Ponder that, since the lowest listed player had only 1.2 fWAR.
ReplyDeleteAccording to Baseball Reference Baty was worth 3.1 WAR. I think his defense graded out pretty well and the bat was solid second half. I don't think he'll ever be a high average guy but I think he can be a solid fielder with about 30ish Hrs and an 800ish OPS.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping that he and Alverez take the next steps and have great seasons next year. If that's the case we can bring back Pete and then 2B and CF would be the only places to really improve and there are a lot of internal options up and coming for that.
Also why I think we should keep McNeil for the last year of his contract
It would take some research, but I’d love to see an analysis of how many guys in obvious take a strike situations (for example down multiple runs leading off in the 8th or 9th, or Vientos the other night PH with the bases loaded in the 8th, up 1-0 in the count, or the bottom of the order when Alcantra had thrown 8-9-10-11-12 ground balls in a row into the 6th and 7th when they were down runs and they desperately needed to elevate his pitch count or at least get someone on) went up there hacking. I know it was a lot because it had me pulling my hair out all season. It was like this team didn’t have a take sign. Baseball 101.
ReplyDeleteIf Pete comes back (I think he will) I’m guessing that he and Soto - the two bottom defensive players at their position) are going to have to deal with 40-50+ games each at DH. Add in Nimmo, and there’s no room at the inn for Vientos, who I’m pretty sure won’t play much 3B, and he’ll be a piece in a trade. If Pete leaves, maybe they keep Vientos as their main DH. I know that Pete doesn’t want to DH, but I don’t see another team offering him huge years and money and guaranteeing FT 1B for him.
I am very concerned with Vientos, as is my brother. If Mark goes to strike one, he is easy prey for low and away sliders. .208 with RISP, .161 in late and close at bats, slow, bad fielder.
ReplyDelete