Some Hitters Bring Thunder With Their Lightning, Some Don’t
This article just focuses on Mets hitters this year. Not pitchers.
Hitting with runners in scoring position is important, absolutely. But…
“Late and Close” is a Baseball Reference stat that highlights how a hitter does in close games in late innings.
How are Mets’ hitters doing “late and close” (slash stats through Thursday):
Brandon Nimmo?
- Up 86 times, .128/.198/.141. Good grief. Let’s GO, Brandon.
Juan Soto?
- Up 100 times, .286/.430/.468. Good. Gets pitched around.
Pete Alonso?
- Up 90 times, .290/.433/.536. Walked and HBP 25% of those PAs.
- Pete brought THE THUNDER on Sunday.
Francisco Lindor?
- Up 104 times .276/.356/.483. Very competitive.
Jeff McNeil?
Up 68 times, .254/.353/.458. Decent.
OK, those are your core 5…4 of them are fine late/close, one is very bad.
On to the lower tier, where we find a plethora of “late and choke specialists”:
Starling Marte?
- Up 46 times, .209/.289/.275. Disappointing.
Mark Vientos?
- Up 55 times, .157/.200/.235. Lousy. OK, worse than lousy: awful.
Brett Baty.
- Up 69 times, .188/.231/.419. Lousy.
Francisco Alvarez?
- Up 45 times, .178/.178/.222. 1 RBI. Awful.
Luis Torrens?
- Up 43 times, .220/.256/.293, 3 RBIs. Lousy.
Tyrone Taylor?
- Up 61 times, .327/.383/.418. Surprise…but just 3 RBIs.
Tier Two is collectively awful.
So, there you have it. A team where more than a few guys hit poorly in “late and close” situations will fail a lot. Bernie Sanders told me when it comes to “late and close losers”, the Mets have more than their fair share.
Does that make things clearer for you?
THIS is why losing Pete could be devastating.
Poor clutch hitters will hope to ride the coattails of the strong ones.
Too many poor ones here. Period. Pete leaving will make it worse.
And the hitting cavalry will not be riding in from Syracuse for a while. Through Sunday, Benge is just 9 for 69 in AAA, while Jett is just 21 for 108. Clifford is doing the best of the trio, but is at .228/.360/.402 in 114 PAs in AAA. I would say July 2026 for those 3 showing up in Queens. I’d have sent all 3 to Arizona, but what do I know?
And, taking off the “fan sunglasses”, I only see Carson Benge, of those 3, as projecting to have an above average MLB career, on a par with Brandon Nimmo. May the other two prove me wrong and excel.
MANAEA TO PEN
To piggy back with Clay Holmes. NEW definition of complete game? If those 2 can combine for 9 innings without a third pitcher.
TONG IS STILL TERRIFIC
You readers might want to, but I am not throwing Jonah under the bus for one bad outing.
He had almost gotten out of the first inning. Sometimes it all goes wrong. He’s still supremely talented. In his first start, it was hard to judge him because the Mets scored 12 runs in the first two innings and Tong was sitting around for an eternity during each of those two explosive innings. Hard to get in rhythm.
In the game in Cincinnati. He gave us three hits (all homers) in six innings. But, wait. Two of the three were Cincinnati mini-park homers that probably would not have been home runs in Citi field. In the minor leagues in 2024 and 2025 he was averaging giving up only one home run every 45 Innings. Dwight Gooden had a bad outing early on in 1984, 3.2 IP, 7 hits, 6 runs, and 3 walks, making people wonder if he was ready.
They sure got their answer. NL Rookie of the Year that season. And second in the Cy Young voting (Sutcliffe was unbearable for the Cubs after he was acquired from the AL in June 1984).
Whether Tong starts more games is another story. I hope Jonah does.
But Senga should be back here earning his paycheck. Now.
But Tong should stay in Queens. Period.
Just keep in mind that one rocky outing is not indicative. David Peterson’s last 3 starts? 15 earned runs in 12.1 IP. So should he-be demoted? Of course not.
SIMPLY BRUTAL
Saturday’s game was another imaginative way to lose, which is what the Mets do best.
Sunday, McLean proved again that he is one of the NL’s best starters, but the pen for the millionth time allowed that lead to evaporate.
Then Texas on Sunday twice had a man on third with less than 2 outs in the late innings, but with toes dangling over the abyss, Diaz and Stanek did not allow the go-ahead run to score. Then Pete dropped a 3 run game winning bomb. 5-2 win in extras. Fans exhaled and roared with delight.
Me? My nephew’s son and daughter were in a local production of Hairspray. I watched that instead. That was much more joy-filled, and agony-free.
Will the Mets miraculously go from miserable to miraculous? After Sunday, they were miraculously in good position for the final WC spot.
Oh, and which Met would you least want to be making on a bang bang play at the plate? Well, Francisco Alvarez, right? Guess who scored on a hands-first slide then….BUSTED HANDS ALVAREZ.
Can somebody sit him down for a chat?
Alvarez Head First Slide into Home, with Two Damaged Hands
BROOKLYN OBLITERATES IN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME 1, 13-1
16 hits, 11 walks. And 2 HBP.
Mighty Marco Vargas went 5 for 5. Give him a High Five. He also had an HBP. My guy Yonaton Henriquez went 4 for 6 with a HR and 6 ribbies. Ronald Hernandez 2 hits and 3 walks. Colin Houck 1 for 2 with 4 walks. Four guys get on base 20 times? Wow.
Obliteration.
Of course, Brooklyn’s starter, the great Noah Hall, did NOT get the win despite pitching well, because he was pulled after 78 pitches. Likely had a 80 pitch count limit. The guy (Gregori Louis) who did get the W got the last 2 outs of the fifth, at which point his very short night was over.
Minor league starters should be eligible for a W if they go 4 innings, not 5. Baseball’s new reality is many sub-5 inning starts, to protect their arms. So, adapt.
David Peterson was one of the first of a new wave of sub-5 inning starters when he was coming up in the minors. He was 3-6 in 24 starts in 2019. He kept getting yanked.
TONIGHT…
Brooklyn’s championship series game 2 is against Hub City, and facing the Cyclones is a lefty named DYLAN McLean.
(Hub City is a city located in southern Illinois, southeast of St. Louis and north of Cairo, Illinois, 425 miles away from Smallville.)
Binghamton game one is the same night, with Jon Santucci on the hill.
See Steve Sica’s great article on their playoffs later this AM for further details.
My longest article title ever LOL.
ReplyDeleteWILD CARD UPDATE
ReplyDelete12 METS GAMES TO GO:
Cincy won... AZ lost
Mets - 77-73 ----
AZ - 76-75 1.5
CIN - 75-75 2
SF - 75-75 2
AZ and SF continue to play each other today so I guess we are Giants fans on Tuesday
Win the series that starts today against SD and the schedule will be in the Mets favor for the remainder of the season... however... you know the history of the Mets playing bad teams
Wearing the driver’s seat…but where is the steering wheel and gas pedal?
DeleteMy take on Tong is he will be fine as well. He had only thrown11.2 inning in 2 starts in AAA. Granted, they were impressive innings. It is said that the move to AAA is difficult because of the different ball and the automated ball/strike. He will make the adjustments
ReplyDeleteI agree. Tong will be fine. Hopefully he will be fine this year.
DeleteI was particularly impressed with the way he handled the post game interview
DeleteI thought this was a batter's post?
ReplyDeleteIt’s early in the morning, not Late and Close. Well, it is close….too close.
DeleteI do hope someone will comment on those telling hitting stats.
I will
DeleteThey are truly telling
This team will not consistently win in the future without more timely hitting from "the next three"
Alvarez
Baty
Vientos
Also
This is why you must resign Pete
Mack, I did not see the post game interview. But while he looks like a teenager, he is smart and mature. I was at a wedding and missed the game, but he wouldhave been out of the first inning unscathed, I believe, if a blooper had not fallen in. Later, I believe I saw a double hit the chalk line. Sometimes, luck is against you.
ReplyDeleteTrue
DeleteBut he had no command of his fastball
It happens
I looked back. He gave up hits, none were hard hit. Baseball sometimes isa hard taskmaster.
DeleteHopefully his lack of FB command is a fluke. We will see. Assuming Tong starts again, it will be vs. San Diego, a tough hitting squad. But they are only 23rd in road game scoring, so it should not be an unmanageable start. So much pressure, parachuting into a tight Wild Card race.
ReplyDeleteMets are averaging 5 runs per game at home this year. Let’s score a lot, and helpthe pitchers.
ReplyDeleteMack, I was ambivalent about re-signing Pete. After seeing those “late and close” numbers, I am ambivalent no longer. You can hope all you want that guys will produce in the clutch. But they are only non-core guys have not. “Hope” is a risky business plan. At least for the next few seasons, a core nucleus of Juan, Pete, and Lindor is one to embrace…unless you want to embark on a risky rebuild, Take oneleg away from that 3-legged stool and you have real chance of toppling.
ReplyDeleteAlso, if McLean, Sproat, and Tong (and Santucci) are the bright new pitching future, having an above average offense will properly support them.
As for Santucci, so far he is doing little wrong. He will get the 2026 season in Syracuse to determine his future
DeleteI happen to think that the next twgreat Mets starters will be Wenninger and Watson
DeleteI agree on the need for Pete, even though the cost is punitive from salary cap situation. Very telling stats. Wonder what the lifetime stats look like.
ReplyDeleteCan only afford to have 2-3 developing or mediocre starters be on the lower end of that stat & we have 6. That must be addressed.
It seems like Steve & David are going to have to rethink the salary cap management situation while our current core ages out. Probably can lower from 325M+ range but stop thinking about falling below the cap during the Lindor/pete/Nimmo overlap years. Means player development is even more critical (especially pitching) which we seem to be delivering on. Steve’s capital advantage will be partially offset by the cap penalties (a true market correcting action) & we have to draft deeper & still find gems.
Player development is the name of the game. (Even eventually package a great (surplus) prospect with an aging contract to get creative & open up cap space.
Still need to blow up some things at end of the year - even if we squeak into the playoffs). Core issues we’ve been discussing haven’t gone away.
Good question on Pete in terms of career “Late and Close”. .218/.328/.439, which is not good, but 98 RBIs in 492 Late and Close at bats is valuable. Just to pick one other guy, Baty is .165/.251/.250 in 164 career Late and Close at bats. Enough of those kinds of numbers in the line up and your team will lose 100 games.
DeleteI had the feeling that Nimmo was failing alot in the clutch - these numbers confirm it. Same with Marte and Alvy. But one thought that came to mind is this: Mendoza always pinch hits in late game situations for anyone in the bottom of the order. Yet the guys he uses are in the list of late and close failures. So with all this talk about the lineups and substitutions being driven by analytics, why does he ignore these numbers?
ReplyDeleteThat is one reason why the crumbling of Winker was so impactful. We needed his bat. In late situations, a bunch of lousy choices.
DeleteThe Mets have the 14th highest “Late and Close” batting average at .231, while Miami, with a lot of kids, has hit .267 in 776 Late and Close at bats. Philly at .256. The overall MLB batting average in Late and Close is .229, likely down that low because a lot of this ABs are against 8th inning guys and closers, who are hit denial specialists. See for yourselves: https://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1¶ms=clutc%7CLate%20%26%20Close%7CML%7C2025%7Cbat%7CAB%7C
ReplyDeleteBTW, even though Drew Gilbert is fanning very little, he is just 2 for his last 21.
ReplyDeleteTom, you spent alot of words on telling us about Pete Alonso, but you didn’t quite say the whole story. Alonso’s stats for “2 out, RISP” which is right above “Late and Close” aren’t nearly as shiny. Furthermore, his previous two years were very Nimmo-ish in a BA of .200 and .192. Besides, when signing a player, you need to predict going forward. I like Pete ans he is a good player and should have value for about three more years, but to me he is a #5 or #6 hitter. Nimmo is too now that he won’t take the free base. But the previous two years from this year, Nimmo’s “late and close” and his “2 outs, RISP” were both very good and phenomenal, respectively. So, we need to use more than one year to judge a player.
ReplyDeleteThat's what Tom has you for, Gus
Delete2 outs, RISP can be in the first inning, second inning, third inning….all counts, of course, but Late And Close is the most important stat, when games are on the line. I am not saying we need to keep Pete. But we need guys who can hit when it is late in the game and it is close. Or we will be in for lots of misery.
DeleteSaw this on FB: “Nolan McLean is the only pitcher in MLB HISTORY with an ERA below 1.20 and 40+ K’s in their first 6 career starts 🤯
ReplyDeleteThe rookie has stepped up in an incredible way when the Mets needed it most.”
Jose Siri 2 for 29, 15 Ks, and 1 for 9, 7 strikeouts, since his Sept return. WHAT GENIUS THOUGHT SIRI WAS A GOOD ACQUISITION?
ReplyDeleteGood morning, Tom. Great piece, as always. They pretty much have to re-sign Pete, and unless some rival GM loses his mind, I’m pretty sure they will. The kids, and particularly Vientos and Baty, seem to have found their footing (Baty as a slow burn, Vientos as a guy waking from the dead), and I think you’ve just gotta hope that being able to relax more at the plate will be a key difference in pressure situations going forward. I’m not too worried about Benge’s start in AAA. It’s his third level of the season in his first full year in pro ball. It’s a lot for a kid - even a first-rounder - to handle and he’s probably exhausted. Also, he was hit on the hand and miss a week recently, so maybe that’s a factor as well. I think they’ll give him every chance to win the CF job in ST, and if he doesn’t, I’d expect him to take in Syracuse and force a call-up. You compared him to Nimmo, and the truth is that if he hits like Nimmo is hitting (minus the late and close) he’d be in the top 1/3 of CF’s offensively. A huge upgrade over what we’ve gotten from the position. Finally, keep in mind that the AZ fall league is basically AA. Most teams don’t send their very top prospects… mainly guys who either missed time during the season or guys they want to see work on something specific. I wouldn’t send Benge and Williams. It’s been a long season for them both. Let them rest up and be ready for the biggest ST of their lives.
ReplyDeleteAdam, if they are burnt out, I’d tell them to skip Arizona too.
ReplyDeleteYou know who didn’t? Alonso. In 2018, in AA, AAA, and Arizona, Pete played 159 games and had 42 HRs and 146 RBIs. He refused to get tired.
Adam, without Pete there as a reliable RBI machine, you don’t know if Baty/Vientos/Mauricio could collectively pick up the slack…or collapse under pressure to produce.
ReplyDeleteWhat is cool about Pete is his durability.
ReplyDelete