MACK - POSITION ANALYSIS - 1B

 

Position Analysis – 1B

Next up… the position we have no idea who is going to play at next season. If it’s Pete Alonso, Josh Naylor, or Cody Bellinger, it’s going to be a long-termer and no one is going to have to emerge out of the system for quite a while. If not, it’s probably Mark Vientos or some veteran under a one-year deal until the first name on this list graduates from AAA-Syracuse. A very wide variance of talent going forward. With that, here’s what’s shakin’ in the system:

Ryan Clifford – normally, you would be excited about a 22/year old coming off a combines AA/AAA season with 29 home runs and 93 runs batted in, but Clifford is also carrying the baggage of 148 strikeouts in 579 plate appearances and only a .237 batting average. He’s also bat-first with average at best defensive skills at first, limiting his future value even more. His LHH game lines up better as a platooned DH (24-HR, 69-RBI, .247-BA vs. RHP – 5-HR, 24-RBI, .204-BA vs. LHP) going forward.

JT Schwartz – 25/yrs. old. 2025 A/AA: 343-PA, 61-K, 5-HR, 36-RBI, .203. He may not survive a cut before this piece goes to print. Barely an AAAA player and still playing AA ball.

Joey Meneses – will play 2026 as a 34/year old.  Three-year MLB vet with the Nats. Had a decent fill-in season last year for AAA-Syracuse 419-PA, .265, but there is no pop in the bat of this, at best, secondary piece. ARB eligible this season, but that’s not going to happen. I would try to keep around, especially if Clifford is dealt off in a package. At best, AAAA-bound.

Nick Lorusso – another one getting long in the tooth… Also plays third base and pitches relief. 25/years old, coming off a full season for AA-Binghamton. Average results: 446-PA, 108-K, only 7-HR, 56-RBI, .241-BA. Ready to graduate to an already crowded AAA-Syracuse first base. For me, a toss of a coin whether he or Meneses survives here.

Trace Willhoite – also plays 3B and SS. Will play 2026 as a quickly aging 25-year old. Had a nice 2025 combined year for A/A+ last season (418-PA, 16-HR, 73-RBI, .251) but he played at two levels below where he should be at this point in his career. To me, his total future projection is, at best, an AAAA player.

Corey Collins – There teams… RK/A/A+ : 270-PA .168-BA, Next.

Daniel Silva – turning 21 in January. Also played catcher and DH. Entire 2025 season, but limited role, for the FCL team: 92-PA, 2-HR, 9-RBI, .188. Another next.

Roybert Herrera – turning 19 in June. Also plays third and second. Played the entire 2025 season for the DSL Orange team: 143-PA, 30-K, 15-BB, 6-HR, only 17-RBI, .285/.371/.488/.858. Worthy in my book for a promotion stateside, most probably for the FCL team.

Yensi Rivas – will play 2026 at 19.

Cesar Acosta – played DSL ball in 2025 at 17. Also catches. Off to a slow start at .206. I would repeat him there again in 2026.

 

MACK – Now you see why everyone wants to sign someone long term. There basically is no depth in the system at this position. Without Pete or a veteran outsider, it’s in the hands of Mark Vientos and Clifford, two challenged hitters and suspect fielders. To me, it’s why a guy like Mark Bellinger made so must sense. Excellent hitter. Even better defensively. But writers and readers here have convinced me to, going forward, pass on long term contracts to players over 30. Still, if the Mets sign a biggie contract, this probably is the position they zero into.

Rating:   2025:  B+    2026:  D+

Reese Kaplan -- Mets Roster Will Soon Be Quite Empty

With the World Series winding down it’s about time to start looking at the New York Mets 40-man roster and how many holes will need to be filled.  Right now if all free agents and opt-out candidates exercise their clauses the Mets have lots of room that needs to be filled.  Let’s start with the easy group — unrestricted free agents:

• Starling Marte
• Cedric Mullins
• Ryan Helsley
• Jesse Winker
• Gregory Soto
• Tyler Rogers
• Ryne Stanek
• Griffin Canning

After that comes the quartet of players who have their own options to remain with the club or depart:

• Pete Alonso
• Edwin Diaz 
• Frankie Montas 
• A.J. Minter

Then there is a pair of players on whom the Mets own options for renewal:

• Brooks Raley
• Drew Smith

Let’s not forget the injured group, too:

• Christian Scott
• Max Kranick
• Reed Garrett
• Danny Young
• Dedniel Nunez
• Tylor Megill
• Nick Madrigal

What’s going to make this roster construction fairly challenging is more than just the 10 free agents and opt-out candidates creating vacancies.  No, the other difficulty is maintaining roster space for players likely to miss all of most of 2026 due to injury.  

In those situations the 60-day IL players who don’t occupy a roster space during the season very much consume one in the off season.  Consequently there are going to be some tough decisions whether to sacrifice roster spaces to players who won’t give you anything on the field for the upcoming season or do you cut them loose to create the roster vacancies that can be filled with healthy players. 

As you look down the injury list it would not be all that surprising to see the Mets decide to non-tender guys who are not considered core players once they recover from their health maladies.  

Take, for example, someone like Dedniel Nunez who had some  impressive months in 2024 before backsliding and needing Tommy John surgery in 2025.  To keep him on the roster would mean bypassing off season roster additions until after the season began when he could be shifted to the 60-day IL.  Cutting him loose would open up that roster spot to be filled before the season begins. 

On that list there are quite a few interesting players.  One long forgotten contributor is infielder Nick Madrigal who went down for the 2025 season during Spring Training.  He was acquired for his career .274 hitter with limited power and somewhat above average speed.  He is someone who likely would produce more offense than Luisangel Acuna or Ronny Mauricio.  He’s not as clear cut a case to set free when there are other clubs who might be interested in the other pair as trade targets. 

The actual rule says that players who are still injured during the off season can be added back to the 60-day IL when Spring Training starts, but it means you are again waiting until February/March to find replacements for them.  It presumes that you want the player removed from the 40-man roster to be placed back onto it when recovery has completed.  

It still seems as if you are artificially squeezing out your best roster construction opportunities by holding onto fringe players instead of replacing them as soon as possible with someone ready to help the club win on day one. 

 

MACK - MY FRIDAY OBSERVATIONS - MACK'S #18 PROSPECT/SP R.J.GORDON - AFL, Cedrick Mullins, Zach Pop, Jacob Reimer, Level of Disappointment, Tatsuya Imai,Pete Alonso, Channing Austin

 

I promised all of you that, as soon as the season ended, I would breakout and post my current Top 30 prospects.

This is performance based, not players that came to the Mets full of promise but have only produced butterscotch pudding. A perfect example of a player that didn’t make this list is catcher Ronald Hernandez. I still like the guy, but based on what he did in 2025, I don’t like him “top 30 guy”.

Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong are not on this list. They have graduated.

I will post them in each of my weekly Observations and In Focus posts… one player at a time… beginning with #30.

Today, we move to #18:

                                                                     SP             R.J. Gordon 

23/years old                      6-0          195         RHSP 

2025:     A +/AA -             26-G, 21-ST, 11-3, 3.36, 1.23, 128.2-IP, 46-BB, 147-K 

R.J. Gordon is a right-handed pitcher and a prospect in the New York Mets organization, currently ranked as their No. 25 prospect. Born on October 26, 2001, in Thousand Oaks, California, he stands at 6'0" and weighs 195 pounds. Gordon was selected by the Mets in the 13th round (383rd overall) of the 2024 MLB Draft out of the University of Oregon. 

Gordon grew up in Santa Clarita, California, and attended Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks before transferring to West Ranch High School for his senior year. Initially a two-way player (outfielder and pitcher), he transitioned to full-time pitching at Oregon under coach Mark Wasikowski. His high school career was impacted by injuries, including a freshman-year setback, and his senior season was cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this, he batted .414 in his abbreviated senior year and drew attention from college scouts, committing to Oregon.

At Oregon, Gordon had a notable college career, finishing with a 14-9 record and a 5.22 ERA over 51 appearances (28 starts) and 182.2 innings, with 155 strikeouts and 89 walks. In 2024, his redshirt junior season, he was named Honorable Mention All-Pac-12, starting 17 games with a 7-6 record, 5.13 ERA, 87 strikeouts, and 46 walks in 94.2 innings. He missed the 2023 season due to a UCL injury requiring internal brace surgery but returned as Oregon’s opening day starter in 2024. 

In his professional career, Gordon debuted with the High-A Brooklyn Cyclones in 2025, posting a 3.06 ERA with 76 strikeouts in 67.2 innings over 15 appearances. 

Promoted to Double-A Binghamton in July 2025, he excelled, going 6-0 with a 3.00 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts). His standout performance earned him the Eastern League Pitcher of the Month award for August 2025, where he went 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 42 strikeouts, and nine walks in 34.2 innings, leading the league in innings pitched and ranking high in WHIP (0.95) and batting average against (.190). 

Fastball: Gordon has expressed a goal of reaching 100 mph, a common aspiration among young pitchers. While he hasn’t hit that mark, his fastball velocity has been sufficient to compete effectively at the professional level. 

Kick Change: Upon joining the Mets, Gordon began developing a kick change, a pitch popularized by pitchers like Clay Holmes. He noted that this pitch suits his post-surgery mechanics and has become one of his best offerings. The kick change likely provides deception and movement, helping him keep hitters off balance. 

Gordon emphasizes unpredictability, stating that he aims to keep hitters guessing with no clear tendencies in his pitch selection. This suggests a varied arsenal, likely including additional pitches like a slider, curveball, or cutter, though specific details on these are not explicitly documented in the sources. His ability to mix pitches effectively has contributed to his success, particularly in Double-A. 

Gordon’s first professional season showcased his potential. His 3.06 ERA in High-A and 3.00 ERA in Double-A reflect consistency and adaptability. His strikeout rate (10.1 K/9 in Double-A) and low walk totals demonstrate improving command. 

Gordon’s rapid rise from a 13th-round pick to the Mets’ No. 25 prospect underscores his potential. He’s part of a strong Mets pitching prospect group, including Jonah Tong, Nolan McLean, and Jonathan Santucci. 

Gordon’s journey from injury setbacks to a promising professional start highlights his resilience and talent. His ability to develop a new pitch like the kick change and his focus on unpredictability suggest a pitcher with room to grow. While not yet on the Mets’ 40-man roster, his 2025 performance positions him as a candidate for further promotions, potentially reaching Triple-A Syracuse or higher in 2026. His development will likely focus on refining his secondary pitches and increasing velocity to enhance his starter profile.

MACK – Gordon is seldomly written about; however, he truly is a dark horse for the 2027 Mets rotation. 

Dove                       @ernestdove

Notable Mets prospect stats in AFL

OF Nick Morabito 10 gm .317/.417 6 BB/9K   9 SB

UT Chris Suero   9 gm    4 HR 9 RBI 4 SB

UT D'Andre Smith   .353 OBP      6 BB / 4 K

RP Brett Banks        5 inn 11 K

P Austin Troesser      3.86 ERA

Cedric Mullins

LINK

Mullins enters free agency after struggling in a major way with the Mets after the club reeled him in to be their everyday center fielder. The Mets acquired Mullins at the trade deadline from the Baltimore Orioles for minor-league pitchers Anthony Nunez, Raimon Gómez and Chandler Marsh. With the Mets, Mullins hit just two home runs and slashed .182/.284/.281 in 143 plate appearances. His defense was mediocre. By the end of the season, he lost a starting job.

The drop in production came after Mullins hit 15 home runs and slashed .229/.305/.433 (355 plate appearances) with the Orioles, the only major-league team he had played for before the trade. An eight-year veteran entering his age-31 season, Mullins is hoping teams favor his speed, defense and track record despite his failed two-month stint with the Mets. For his career, Mullins owns a .736 OPS (105 OPS-plus).

Forgotten Ex-2025 Mets

https://risingapple.com/ny-mets-3-players-2025-roster-already-forgot/2

Zach Pop

One of several pitchers the Mets used for a single game this year, Zach Pop was one of the more forgettable featured on the mound. He pitched against the New York Yankees on July 6. His 3 earned runs in 1.1 innings in a bullpen game started by Chris Devenski is one of those games that shouldn’t be easily forgotten for a ball club that missed the playoffs by a single victory.

Pop was the losing pitcher in this game, allowing a leadoff home run to Austin Wells in the third inning. It proved costly as the Mets fell to the Yankees 6-4.

Pop managed to latch onto the Chicago Cubs following his release from the Mets. In a small sample in Triple-A, he predictably had an ERA over 5.00.

The 2025 Mets season was historic for how the team set a record for using the most pitchers of any MLB history. Pop was one no one was excited for who was gone before we could even grow to become frustrated with how overused he became. Somehow his 20.25 ERA wasn’t even the worst of any Mets pitcher this year. Two of them had a 27.00 ERA, including one more you might have forgotten about.

 

Who are the next young studs for the Mets?

LINK

3B Jacob Reimer (No. 6 prospect, Double-A BNG)

2025 MiLB Totals: 122 G, 522 PA, .282/.379/.491, 125 H, 17 HR, 32 2B, 5 3B, 88 R, 77 RBI, 15 SB, 21.5%-11.1% K-BB%, .209 ISO, .338 BABIP, .399 wOBA, 157 wRC+

Latest Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 / Power: 50 / Run: 40 / Arm: 50 / Field: 45 / Overall: 50

MLB Comp: Max Muncy (2015 Grades: 45 / 40 / 40 / 45 / 45 / Overall: 45)

Given his placement just outside the Top 5 on the Mets’ prospect list, I imagine everyone reading this is plenty familiar with Jacob Reimer’s name as well. That’s for good reason: Reimer had a scorching 2025 campaign.

After an initial struggle at High-A in 2023 and then an injury-shortened follow-up campaign in 2024, Reimer entered the 2025 season as the Mets’ 15th overall prospect. Though his skillset was apparent, there were some questions about whether they’d consistently translate to in-game results.

Safe to say those concerns have been largely put to rest.

But it’s not just the eye-popping slash line or the position-leading wRC+ that have my hype meter going crazy. This is what has me extra stoked about Reimer:

Among third basemen with at least 500 plate appearances, Reimer led all of Minor League Baseball in isolated power (ISO) and ranked third in Speed score (Spd). No other third base prospect offered a profile quite like that in 2025.

Though Reimer’s 15 stolen bases in 2025 were only good enough to tie for 20th among his MiLB peers, it reflected a 5x increase from his 2023 total of three (3) stolen bases. Couple that with a doubled homer output, and to say Reimer simply ‘bounced back’ from his hamstring injury would be putting it mildly.

Long story short, this kid’s fantastic, and he’s only going to get better. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a cup of coffee in 2026.

Mets fan survey results

LINK

How would you describe your level of disappointment at the end of the 2025 season?

51% - This wasn't as bad as 2007 … but it was close

19% - Disappointed? I was glad I didn't have to watch more games

17% - It's always this disappointing

13% - I've never been more disappointed as a Mets fan

While very few fans went so far as to call 2025 the most disappointing season in franchise history, the majority put it near the 2007 standard-bearer.

Hidden Gem Pitcher

LINK

Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai ninth overall, and fourth when it comes to pitchers. Of the seven teams he believes are a good fit for the right-hander, he had the Mets at the top of his list.

Tatsuya Imai stats: 10-5 record: 1.92 ERA, 0.892 WHIP, 178 SO, 45 BB, 163.2 IP

Tatsuya Imai projected to be middle of the rotation starter in MLB

·         Infielders Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto are the most talked-about Japanese players set to be posted this winter. However, Bowden has Imai ranked well ahead of his countrymen. He explained why the 27-year-old could land a deal worth $154 million.

“Imai is an undersized (listed at 5-foot-11, 154 pounds) right-handed starter for the Saitama Seibu Lions who is expected to be posted this offseason. He sits in the mid-90s with his fastball but can reach the high-90s when he needs it. His best secondary pitch is a wipeout slider, and he mixes in a changeup, splitter, curveball, and sinker. A two-time All-Star in Japan, Imai posted a 1.92 ERA in 163 2/3 innings this season. Despite his slight build, he’s been durable and profiles in MLB as a mid-rotation innings-eater who can keep hitters guessing.”

Dan Bartels                         @DanBartels2

Pete Alonso should be a New York Met for life

Pete Alonso, who led the New York Mets with 38 home runs and 125 RBIs in 2025, declined his player option and entered free agency, with agent Scott Boras seeking a seven-year contract exceeding $180 million. Hall of Famer Keith Hernandez, a Mets icon and broadcaster, urged owner Steve Cohen to secure Alonso long-term, comparing him to Harmon Killebrew and stressing his irreplaceable power. While fans support the call, some advocate for balanced roster building over a mega-deal for one star.

 

TJStat - 2026 Breakout Pitching Prospect Picks For Each Team

New York Mets

Channing Austin

Age: 23, RHP, 6' 3"/200 lbs

DOB: 2001-12-21, New York, USA

Channing Austin signed as an undrafted free agent after the 2024 draft and turned in a modest debut season, posting a 4.38 ERA across 74.0 innings in Low-A. There were, however, several encouraging signs. His velocity sits comfortably above the MLB average, led by a mid-90s fastball with significant movement. The pitch pairs effectively with his fading changeup, giving him a strong foundation. Austin also mixes in three breaking balls that sit in the mid-to-upper 80s, all flashing plus. There is little question about the stuff, but refining his command will be essential if he hopes to break out in 2026.

John From Albany: 10 Years Ago - Mets Blow Late Lead, Go Down 3 Games to 1 in 2015 World Series, 10/31/2015

NY Newsday Back Page, 11/1/2015

2015, the last year the Mets made the World Series.  This daily post will detail the game by game journey to the Fall Classic.  Click here for More Mets History and Calendar Classics.

Year: 2015; World Series Game #4; Wednesday; Oct 31, NYM 3 Vs KCR 5; boxscore; WP: Ryan Madson; LP: Tyler Clippard; Save: Wade Davis; Time: 3:29; Night; Attendance: 44,815; Record: 1-3; L;

Curtis Granderson RF: 1 for 3; CS,SF; 1 RBI; David Wright 3B: 0 for 3; 1 walk; 1 K; Daniel Murphy 2B: 1 for 4; Yoenis Céspedes CF-LF: 1 for 4; 2 Ks; Lucas Duda 1B: 0 for 4; 1 K; Travis d'Arnaud C: 0 for 3; 1 K; Michael Conforto LF: 2 for 3; 2·HR; 2 runs; 2 RBIs; 1 K; Kirk Nieuwenhuis CF: 0 for 0; Wilmer Flores SS: 1 for 3; 1 run; 2 Ks; Steven Matz P: 0 for 1; SH; Juan Lagares CF: 0 for 0; Kelly Johnson PH: 0 for 1; Steven Matz: 5 innings; 2 runs; 2 ERs; 7 hits; 5 Ks; Jon Niese, H (2): 0.2 inning; no runs; Bartolo Colón, H (1): 0.1 inning; no runs; 1 K; Addison Reed, H (2): 1 inning; no runs; 1 K; Tyler Clippard, H (5), L (0-1): 0.1 inning; 2 runs; 2 ERs; 2 walks; Jeurys Familia, BS (2): 0.2 inning; 1 run; 2 hits; Hansel Robles: 1 inning; no runs; 2 Ks;

The bad infield defense that plagued the team all year shows up in the World Series.  The Mets blow a 3-2 lead in the 8th as Daniel Murphy makes a key error.  Royals go on to score 3 to win 5-3.

NY Post: Conforto’s heroics, Matz’s solid start now just afterthoughts. "For a while on Saturday night, it looked like Steven Matz would be able to drive back to his childhood home on Long Island with the knowledge he pitched the Mets to the victory that evened the World Series with the help of fellow rookie Michael Conforto and his two solo homers. Instead, both were mere footnotes to a crushing 5-3 loss to the Royals in Game 4 of the World Series that left the Mets one loss away from their season ending."

ESPN.com: "The Mets had about as much success against their former teammate Young for the first couple of innings as they had in Game 1, when the 6-foot-10 Princeton grad held them hitless for the final three of the Royals' 14-inning win. Conforto changed that with the first swing of the third inning, sending a drive the first pitch deep into the second deck in right field for his third hit in 23 at-bats this postseason...Conforto pushed the lead back to two runs in the bottom half with his second long ball, a drive off Danny Duffy into the Mets' bullpen.

NY Post: Daniel Murphy’s error in 8th helps put Mets in 3-1 Series hole. "Murphy misplayed a routine grounder that led to an eighth-inning implosion for the Mets in their 5-3 loss to the Royals in Game 4 of the World Series at Citi Field. In a nightmare sequence for the Mets, reliever Tyler Clippard walked Ben Zobrist and Lorenzo Cain before Jeurys Familia entered for a five-out save. Eric Hosmer hit a slow grounder that rolled under Murphy’s glove, allowing the tying run to score. Before the inning was complete, two additional runs scored on two hits and the Mets were on their way to falling into a 3-1 hole in the series."

Newsday: "For all of Murphy's mighty clouts this postseason -- home runs in a postseason-record six games in a row -- the sight of the ball going under his glove and into rightfield might end up being one of the defining moments of this World Series if the Mets don't make a historic rally. 'It's frustrating because this ballclub -- we put ourselves in position to win a ballgame today and I misplayed it,' Murphy said. 'There's no excuse for it. We lost the ballgame because of it.'"

Ken Davidoff NY Post: Cespedes showing Mets fans his worst at the worst possible time. "In this heartbreaker for Mets fans, the multi-tool player Cespedes faltered at bat, in the field and, in the piece de resistance, on the bases. Right when the Mets threatened to put together a miraculous, ninth-inning rally against Kansas City’s indomitable closer Wade Davis, after blowing a one-run lead in the eighth, Cespedes somehow got doubled off first base on a harmless Lucas Duda line drive to Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas, ending the game."

 

ANGRY MIKE: WHY TRADING MCLEAN, TONG & OTHER TOP PROSPECTS FOR SKUBAL WOULD BE A MONUMENTAL MISTAKE...

 

ANGRY MIKE 

Trading Nolan McLean or Jonah Tong for ANYBODY would be a monumental mistake by the Mets, but let’s take a look at Tong first since it’s become the trendiest mock trade by Mets content creators: 

FINANCIAL INVESTMENT STANDPOINT:

Tong drafted 7th Rd (#109) -> $226,000 signing bonus

Tong’s $226K investment is the CLOSEST EXAMPLE you’ll find to the MLB’s version of investing in BTC in 2010…

-> F. Montas, below-mediocre SP, costs $17M AAV

-> L. Castillo durable SP, mid-3’s ERA, costs $24M AAV

-> T. Glasnow, plus stuff SP, injury-prone, costs $32.5M AAV

-> T. Skubal, durable, CY Young caliber SP, costs $40+M AAV

6 years of control -> $226K represents $170M+ value if you use a straight-line appreciation method to project replacement cost -> averaging 4 AAV above:

If you subtract 3 yrs. Pre-Arb. salaries ($800K) + 3 yrs of Arb. salaries - using D. Peterson as a blueprint = $20M total

That’s $150M+ in potential savings -> $28.5M avg AAV 

Even if Tong pitches at Montas Level all 6 years -> he’d still be saving the Mets $90M+ at the very least.

 

($102M = 6 yrs @ $17M AAV) - ($12M total salary - 6 yrs)

Best case scenario -> production improves every 2 years:

-> Avg. AAV of (Montas + Castillo) ->     $20.8M AAV  x 2 Yrs

-> Avg. AAV of (Montas to Glasnow) ->   $24.7M  AAV  x 2 Yrs

-> Avg. AAV of (Castillo to Skubal) ->     $32.1M  AAV   x 2 Yrs

$155.6M total in “Replacement Value” salary for 6 yrs -> means Mets have to spend that much for other SP $20M projected actual cost” -> $135M in savings 

That doesn’t even take into account salary inflation rates for SP, which are arguably among the highest for any position in professional sports. 

Average to below average SP are earning closer to $1M per GS b/c they’re logging closer to 20-23 GS each year, & average to above average SP earning $1M+ per GS for 25-28 GS per year.

Salaries continue to rise at an exponential rate despite the frequency of pitchers needing Tommy John Surgery reaching epidemic levels.

PRESENT TALENT / FUTURE PROJECTION STANDPOINT:

Of course trading a Top prospect for Skubal / Skenes makes sense, & no one is stupid enough to say Tong is at their level.

Yet…

Tong is a unique talent who warrants special consideration for a number of different reasons:

-> Dominant #’s in 2024 with average FB Velo

-> Historic #’s in 2025 when FB Velo jumped to “plus”

-> Only SP ever to lead Minors in ERA & Strikeouts

-> Hits allowed, K/9, K-rate, BAA also among MILB leaders 

-> AA Eastern League = top competition in the Minors

Tong dominated AA-AAA despite being multiple years below the league average, & reached AA in 1st full season in 2024.

Reaching AA despite being drafted out of high school & only logging 1 full season of 100+ IP is incredibly rare.

It’s one thing to trade a prospect who might have a more predictable ceiling, b/c you can better gauge their future value.

Tong dominated higher levels of minors & exhibited an improving arsenal with tremendous future potential.

-> 2025 FB Avg Velo was 95+ MPH -> 98-99 top end Velo

-> Vulcan changeup flashed potential to be a plus-plus pitch

-> Slider has potential but can be scrapped for a plus sweeper

-> Curveball has potential to be plus or better 

-> Has the ability to quickly learn & deploy new pitches

-> I.V.B. has 21+ inches AVG - that’s tops in MILB & MLB 

Nolan McLean represents a potentially greater R.O.I. than Tong, because he has already flashed “ACE” potential during his brief MLB stint, despite being a 3rd round draft pick who signed for a $747,600 signing bonus. Based on the same comparable salaries of listed above, it’s safer to say McLean represents the type of veteran caliber pitcher who could easily command $25M - $35M on the open market. 

6 years of control X $30M AAV = $180M -> this represents the “replacement cost” if the Mets were to trade McLean for a pitcher like Skubal.

If the Mets extend Skubal, you can add another potential $220M+ based on Skubal’s projected AAV and the minimum 8 years he’ll most likely get. Combine this with the fact these ignorant hacks are proposing the Mets would need to trade McLean & Tong to acquire Skubal, that represents around $600 million in new contracts for extending Skubal and finding an additional impact front-line SP to replace Tong. That doesn’t even take into account the potential replacement cost of the other prospects being proposed in mock trades for Skubal, such as Jett Williams and Carson Benge. Trading 4 premier talents for Skubal, represents close to a BILLION DOLLARS in additional financial expenditures by Cohen, by not spending on premier veterans to replace the high-upside talent we traded for Skubal means Cohen would waste spending $1.7 Billion on Juan Soto, Skubal, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo.

That’s why it makes ZERO SENSE from a financial standpoint and a roster management standpoint to trade any of the players being proposed in mock trades for Skubal or even Paul Skenes. Acquiring one pitcher for the cost of 4-5 premier prospects creates more holes on the Mets roster, which already has a considerable number of question marks as is. 

That’s why the best course of action for Cohen and the Mets is to continue developing the young talent they have amassed over the last few years and continue lowering their payroll, in order to gear up for a potential pursuit of Skubal when he inevitably hits free agency after the 2026 season. 

The so-called experts can make all the mock trades they want, but our best young talent, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and others will not be traded by the Mets for a rental player like Skubal or even a player with multiple years of control like Skenes, and that’s a fact…

Tom Brennan - My Top 30 Mets Prospects Series Begins: 26 Thru 30

 

So, here is the start of my post-season minors top 30…

The 26 Thru 30 Lads

A few months back, I had written the following about traded-away Mets prospects:

“Which fellas did our David trade away? Best way perhaps is to see how the traded guys rank in their new organizations’ top 30 prospects.”

Jesus Baez  -   # 7

Blade Tidwell - #13

Drew Gilbert - no longer listed as a prospect. He hit .190 in 100 SFG ABs.

Nate Dohm - # 17

W. Aracena - # 29

Tony Nunez - not in his new team’s top 30 (puzzler)

Chandler Marsh - not in top 30.

High octane Raimon Gomez fascinating, but ended the season post-trade injured and outside his new team’s top 30 too.

Salty Elissalt - not in his new team’s Top 30.

That’s a lot of (somewhat) painful movement out of the Met’ pre-trade Top 30.  Just realize that in the Mets’ loaded farm system, a guy like Jesus Baez, ranked 7th by his now team, likely does not crack the Mets’ Top 10.”

The guy I think we might miss the most is Blade Tidwell.

Nonetheless, the Mets’ post-trades Top 30 list? 

It looks strong.  

If they had all stayed, it would have been SO VERY strong.

But David went shopping and had to pay a bit heavily for his purchases.

In my new series: 

I will address five top 30 prospects at a time, in reverse order, so this article covers 26-30, my next articles will be 21-25, and I will work my way down.  I will, after I get through the Top 30 over this my next five articles, add a 7th article on 10 (or so) guys of promise outside my top 30 (31-40).

MY 26 THRU 30:

26. Yonaton Henriquez

 A 20 year old athletic switch hitter, OF Yonatan Henriquez had 35 steals, a .263 average, and a .353 OBP with 8 HRs and 52 RBIs in 111 games, mostly with St Lucie. 

Second half, uptrending, with a sizzling .294/.377./441.

He went 7 for 20 with 6 RBIs in the Brooklyn playoffs, too. 

I’d sure keep an eye on this athletic young fella. 

I may have him too danged low. I hope so.

27. OF Randy Guzman

The 6’4” Mets guy whose name is closest to Jerry Koosman?  

“The Gooz” started out the season as a complete unknown (but not like a rolling stone) in the FCL, and ended the regular season with St Lucie. 

How’d he do?

252 at bats, 22 doubles, 2 triples, 10 HRs, 57 RBI’s.  Yes, he killed it.  

I’d like to see those #s projected over 600 at bats.    OK, so I did:

600 at bats, 52 doubles, 5 triples, 24 HRs, 137 RBIs.  Sweet.

He hit .302/.375/.524 overall in 2025.

After his promotion to St Lucie, no adjustment period necessary - he demolished it at .333/.381/.604 in 26 games.  DANG!  

And just 54 Ks in 283 PAs.  And he doesn’t turn 21 until April.

And, as Ernest Dove told us, he is a great clubhouse presence already.  

I cautiously expect him to be a 2026 minors beast. 

I simply had to get him in my top 30.

28. RJ Gordon

The 23 year old 13th round righty had some heck of a heckuva year, spanning 2 levels up to AA, going 11-3, 3.36, with 147 Ks in 129 IP.  

Keep that up!   

I hesitated a bit in putting him higher, due to his 13th round draft status.

Next year, if he is strong again, he will RISE!

Might he even debut with the Mets in relief in 2026? 

If so, call him Flash Gordon.

29. Brendan Girton 

The 10th rounder righty was super in Brooklyn in 2025, and got promoted to Binghamton.  He ended up 3-4, 3.10, ERA, the same exact ERA that the great Carlton Willey put up for the 1963 Mets when he went 9-14 as the ace of their staff during that tough season. 

Girton’s ERA sadly jumped above 3.00 in his final outing, where he gave up 4 earned runs in 2 IP.

Girton ended up with 110 Ks in 87 innings,and a 1.16 WHIP. 

He threw 2 gems in Brooklyn that spanned 10 innings, in which he allowed just 1 hit, walked 2 and fanned 15. The Dominator. The Girtonator.

Given the level of bullpen churn in Metsville each year, it would not at all surprise me to see Mr. Girton make his Mets’ debut out of the bullpen in late 2026.  But first, he needs more AA (and then AAA) seasoning.

Still, for me to have guy this talented as low as # 29 says great things about the system.

30. C Daiverson Gutierrez

Bonus baby Davey Gutierrez, still 19, played all season in St Lucie.  Not the DSL.  Not the FCL.  BUT Low A St Lucie.  Sweet!

His power output is limited so far, with a Buddy Harrelson-like 14 extra base hits in 395 plate appearances, but he walked 53 times, as compared to just 58 Ks. A fine rate.

Result? A solid OBP. His catching defense is of concern - let’s call it a work in progress, with 24 errors and 17 passed balls in 86 games catching and a 17% (late-in-season up trending) caught-stealing rate. 

I believe his high catcher errors are in part due to this being an extremely high steal attempt league. So he is a long ways off, but he is 19, with a promising bat.  Probably a 2028 Citi arrival? Late 2027, maybe? 

He should add power, as he is listed at 5’11”, 210.  

He has used the HBP as a tool to get on base, too, with 33 career HBPs in 748 PAs.  My motto: Get on base however you can, but avoid injury.

My 26-30 choices, at your disposal, and I am sticking to them.

Until Stearns starts trading them, that is.  

All of the pitchers can reach the Mets. 

A number of hitters won’t…no room.

Next up? Prospects 21 thru 25.

But…before I go…I saw this.  Thoughts?

Kenneth Teape, of SI, focusing on the T Rays, wrote:

“Jake Mangum is one player to keep an eye on because he was mentioned by Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic as a potential trade target for the New York Mets this winter…..the Mets have a young player on their roster, Ronny Mauricio, who should be of interest to Tampa Bay. The needs and current strengths of each roster look to match up, making them ideal offseason trade partners.”

Back to me….

Jake hit a low-powered .296 for Tampa in 2025, with a lot of steals (27 of 33) and strong CF defense.

Yes, he was a former Mets prospect who never somehow got called up by the Mets.  Only to hit .296 as a Tampa rookie.

And yes, Tyrone Taylor hit .223 with less (just 12) steals as the Mets CF. 

Last I checked, .296 is better than .223.

Your thoughts?  My thoughts contain the following words:

 “…in a heartbeat.”