ANGRY MIKE: HOW QUICKLY CAN TEAMS REBUILD DEPTH IN THEIR FARM SYSTEM AFTER MULTIPLE HIGH-PROFILE TRADES?

ANGRY MIKE 

The Mets have the #1 Farm System in the MLB because they ascertained a success rate with draft selections over the last 4 drafts that has never been duplicated in franchise history. Their streak of successful draft classes started with the 2022 MLB Draft, and despite whiffing on 1st Round pick, Kevin Parada and his franchise record $5 Million signing bonus, the Mets were able to acquire several impact players with their early round selections, and with their selections in the later rounds.

2022 Draft Class:

        Name                    Round 

Jett Williams                1st 

Blade Tidwell                2nd 

Nick Morabito               2nd 

Jacob Reimer               4th 

Jonah Tong                 7th

  Dylan Ross                  13th 

Their 2023 Draft Class was arguably as successful, as 2022, as the Mets turn their attention to college starting pitchers in the early rounds, sandwiched between 2 premium high school talents in Colin Houck and A.J. Ewing. The Mets continued to fortify organizational depth in key areas of need with tactical precision. 

2023 Draft Class:

Name                             Round 

Colin Houck                      1st 

Brandon Sproat                2nd 

Nolan McLean                   3rd 

Zach Thornton                  5th 

A.J. Ewing                        7th

Brett Banks                      11th

Being able to add future R.O.Y candidates in Tong and McLean, potential “ACE” talents in back to back drafts is as rare as it gets, even when teams use 1st round selections and $10 million in bonuses. Adding those type of elite caliber players in the 7th and 3rd rounds, for a little over a $1 million dollars is equivalent to catching “lightning with chopsticks.” 

2024, the David Stearns officially took over for the Mets, and he teamed up with for Astros executive Kris Gross, to deliver another stellar haul of impact talent that strategically supplemented our farm system in key areas of need.

2024 Draft Class:

  Name                                Round 

 

Carson Benge                        1st 

Jonathan Santucci                  2nd 

Trey Snyder                           5th 

Will Watson                           7th 

Ryan Lambert                        8th

Brendan Girton                     10th

The 2024 Draft class supplemented the farm system with key players missing from our organizational depth chart. Starting with Benge, who was ranked as our best position player after his first full season. Stearns drafted Jonathan Santucci, who instantly became our best LHP prospect, as well as other impact players in the later rounds.

2025 Draft Class:

 Name                                Round 

Mitch Voit                              1st 

Antonio Jimenez                    2nd 

Peter Kussow                         5th 

Cade Lohman                         7th 

Peyton Prescott                      8th

Truman Pauley                      10th

Despite losing picks for signing Juan Soto, the Mets enjoyed another impressive haul of high upside talent. The Mets bonus pool allotment for the entire class was only a few hundred thousand dollars more than Kevin Parada’s bonus in 2022. They added Peter Kussow who resembles Jacob Misiorowski & Caden Lohman, who’ll remind you of Trey Yesavage because of his delivery. Truman Pauley (12th Rd), has electric stuff and a fastball generating 22.5” of I.V.B and a wipeout “gyro slider”. 

With the farm system overflowing with impact talent every minor league level, social media is on fire with mock trade proposals suggesting the Mets acquire everyone from Tarik Skubal to Sydney Sweeney. These rash mock trades are indicative of a mental health condition known as, “anger displacement”. 

Anger Displacement Definition:

“act of directing anger or frustration towards a target other than the original source of the anger…”

SOURCE   ->  METS 2025 SEASON 

TARGET   ->   METS ENTIRE FARM SYSTEM

 ===>    2022 DRAFT   thru   2025 DRAFT   <===

->  25 selections became -> Top 30 caliber out of 84 selections (4 Drafts)

->  25 Prospects / 84 Selections -> 30% Success Rate

=> 10 Impact Prospects - from selections in Rounds 6 thru 13

->  10 of 25 -> Top Prospects -> procured from RND 6 - 13 

->   RND 6 - 13: ‘22 - ‘25 -> 10 / 32 picks -> 31% success rate 

->   Add: T.Stuart (6), P. Gervase (12) -> 38% success rate

->   RDS 1 - 5: ‘22 - ‘25 -> 15 / 24 picks -> 63% success rate

->   Add: B. Tidwell (2), K. Morris (3), N. Dohm (3) -> 75% success rate

->   RND 14 & Up -> 28 selections -> ZERO % success rate

->   2022 -> 5 of 8 picks -> yielded impact talent or trade asset 

->   2023 -> 7 of 9 picks -> yielded impact talent or trade asset

->   71% -> Top 6 RND picks -> yielded impact talent or trade asset 

->   10 Impact Prospects + 2 Players used in trades 

Analysis of Mets Drafts: 2017 + 2018 + 2019 + 2021

—>     Round 14 - 30 (2017-2019) -> 0% success rate

—>     Rounds 6 - 13: ZERO % SUCCESS RATE

==>   ZERO “Tong Caliber” players drafted = 0% success rate

->       Megill & Vasil only players on MLB rosters

->     Rounds 1 - 5 -> 6 for 20 -> 30% Success Rate 

==>    6 impact players for 110 selections (all 4 drafts)

==>    5  %  Success Rate -> 4 Drafts Combined  <==

->       Baty, Vientos, & Scott, Peterson -> still with team

->       Kelenic & Woods-Richardson -> used in trades

The risk variance associated with success rates for draft selections, the total number of rounds being lowered from thirty to twenty, CBT Tax threshold penalties, and penalties for signing free agents are the primary reasons volatility for future drafts will continue to fluctuate. 

The success rates we’ve seen recently may not be achieved in the future.

In a hypothetical trade for Tarik Skubal, like the ludicrous suggestions being made by the media and fans, it would take a minimum of 4-6 years to replace 4-5 high-caliber prospects, like JETT, Benge, and especially Jonah Tong. Finding a player like Tong in the 7th round, willing to sign for only $226,000, who then blossoms into a potential ace with upper 90s velocity & the potential for 3 plus pitches is as rare as it gets:

2017-2025 || 9 Drafts || Mets had 199 picks || Only one Jonah Tong

PROBABILITY OF DRAFTING ANOTHER JONAH TONG  =  0.50 %

All the data above isn’t there to convince you why the Mets would be foolish to offer 4-5 of their highest ranked prospects for Tarik Skubal, it clearly shows why the Tigers would jump at the opportunity to trade Skubal to a team that is not only desperate and short-sighted.

The Tigers could potentially save at least 7 years, to acquire the same number of high caliber players being offered in recent mock trades. At least 4+ drafts hoping to acquire the players and than another 3+ years to of develop them. 

Of course Detroit is entertaining offers for Skubal, that’s not a major “news scoop” like the “Watergate scandal” or Bruce Jenner becoming Caitlin Jenner, it’s just common sense.

All cards on the table, there isn’t a single scenario that allows the Mets to keep all of the talented players they’ve stockpiled in recent years, it’s impossible.

Believe me, I bloody tried…

Regardless, the Mets need to execute a tactical approach that strategically capitalizes on the surplus of talent we’ve stockpiled in the farm system and MLB roster. Assess which players are nearing MLB promotions, and offer the best chance to add value as regulars. Which prospects are progressing rapidly through the minors, and may not have an immediate fit on the MLB roster.

Replacing 4-6 impact players requires as much luck as it does skill, when identifying and developing potential draft picks.Aside from the risk component built into each draft, the CBT penalties that will be applied annually severely limits the Mets draft capital every year we are over the threshold. 

The current stretch of successful drafts by the Mets, is as phenomenal as it is rare. Whereas the as previous regime’s stretch is a more accurate representation of what is considered to be normal.  

That’s why drafting or signing first-year players has always will remain highly volatile.

The stockpile of talent in the minors earning the Mets the distinction of having M.L.B.’s #1 Farm System is basically “House Money” at a “Blackjack” table. 

They can proceed disciplined and tactical, give themselves a chance to parlay their recent good fortune into the ultimate goal, which is ending the 40 year World Series drought, when it’s within striking distance.

“ONE SHOT, ONE KILL” 

Or they can be proceed undisciplined and short-sighted, not only risking ending up with nothing, but set themselves back decades from ever being in this position ever again…

“I’M PLAYING WITH HOUSE MONEY, UNFORTUNATELY THE HOUSE TOOK IT BACK…”