ANGRY MIKE
There is a ton of chatter from every demographic focused on the Mets offseason plans, ironically, the only thing they seem to agree on is their unified belief that the Mets need to add multiple starting pitchers this winter. Some suggestions focus on signing multiple starters from this winter’s crop of free agents, while others suggest trading for multiple starters at any cost. The pandemic-level delusion over the need for starting pitching might just be PTSD from the 2025 season or they could be simply underestimating the potential of the starters we have already have at our disposal.
Fortunately, I hate being trendy, so let’s outline why the Mets should focus on utilizing the pitching assets we already have in-house, and why our current group of veterans and potential rookies offer significantly more upside.
VETERANS UNDER CONTRACT
CLAY HOLMES
Holmes had a strong 2025 season, in 30 game starts, he posted a respectable 3.53 ERA, 12 wins, and 8 quality starts. Those represent a successful transition by Holmes from reliever to starter, and there is reason to believe he can improve upon those numbers next season. Seth Lugo recently made the same transition, and produced better numbers during his second season, despite making a higher number of starts and 60 more innings than the previous season. Lugo showed no ill effects from the career high number of innings in 2023, while maintaining the same velocity and command of all his pitches. Holmes has the physical attributes and mechanics to suggest he will be able to duplicate his 2025 numbers or even improve upon them for the 2026 season. Holmes’ salary for 2026 is around $13 million, a bargain considering we paid more for Frankie Montas.
DAVID PETERSON
Peterson was having a stellar 2025 season, made the All-Star team for the first time, and looked like the staff “ACE” even with Senga pitching as well as he was. He picked up right where he left off from the 2024 season, but unfortunately wore down in the second half of the season. There weren’t any medical issues reported, which helps provide optimism he can bounce back in 2026 and hopefully maintain consistent production for a full season. Despite his disastrous second half, Peterson still posted better numbers across the board than Dylan Cease and will only cost the Mets $9 million.
KODAI SENGA
Senga was having a CY Young caliber season prior to injuring his hamstring on June 13th. The Mets arguably rushed him back and he wasn’t able to regain his peak form, he’d flash potential for a couple innings, but then began serving up homers at an alarming rate. Senga didn’t exhibit any shoulder or elbow concerns, and after a full off-season to heal up, there is no reason to think he can’t produce 75-80% of what he was doing during the 2025 season. Senga’s $15 million salary is another bargain and if he is able to regain his top form, we have at least one veteran starter locked in for the 2027 season.
SEAN MANEA
Despite being the highest paid member of the rotation, Manea was a categorical disaster during the 2025 season. Of the 4 veteran starters we have under contract, he offers the least amount of upside and the highest level of risk, which is brutal because how much he’s paid. If the Mets can get him pitching remotely close to the numbers he produced during the 2024 season, and the others perform to their potential, Manea is a player the Mets should look to trade even if they have to eat a large portion of his salary.
Peterson is a free agent after the 2026 season, and Holmes will almost certainly exercise the opt-out in his contract and cash in on 2 successful seasons as a starter. That creates the payroll flexibility needed to pursue Tarik Skubal, and if for any reason they can’t lure Skubal to Queens, they can turn their attention to Mackenzie Gore or Shane McClanahan after the 2027 season. In addition to Skubal, there are several potential free agents who offer significantly more upside than this winter’s class of free agent starters. Jesus Luzardo, Freddy Peralta, and Nick Pivetta are just a few of the big names who offer significantly more upside and represent much better long-term investments than players currently being discussed this off-season.
Dylan Cease -> Way too expensive and way too unreliable to warrant such a large financial investment that is being projected to sign him.
Sandy Alcantara -> Medical history has too many red flags to justify the significant prospect capital it would take to acquire him. We have comparable options in-house.
Framber Valdez -> Offers the most upside of all the free agents, but he’s 32, looking for a payday on par with or that exceeds Max Fried’s contract.
Joe Ryan -> Twins asking price was multiple Top prospects for a RP, anyone who thinks their asking price for their best SP, with multiple years of control will be anything close to reasonable is out of their minds.
Case in point the Mets have plenty of veteran starters to choose from, and the players being suggested either.offer less upside than the veterans we already have or pose a minuscule upgrade for a significant of cost to acquire them. How does misappropriating huge financial resources or significant prospect capital to veterans who are clearly declining, project as upgrades to our current depth chart?
Answer is, they don’t. All we need is for Holmes to perform as he did in 2025 and Senga and Peterson to perform to their potential, as they represent much better upside than the names being thrown around that we should try to acquire. Remaining rotation spots can be filled from the high-upside arms we have ready to graduate from our farm system that are highlighted in Part 2…
Totally agree though I hope Stearns does too.
ReplyDeleteThanks Gary! Let’s hope, I mean it’s pretty obvious, SP options aren’t the problem. The bullpen needs to be re-tooled. But even there we have several high impact guys on the way.
DeleteWe have a chance to build a similar bullpen to the Brewers with in-house guys we developed, if Ross, Lambert and Banks continue improving their command.
I agree, Mike. McLean is fine as a starter, too, and Sproat and Tong may dazzle this spring. I think we have enough starters for now, and unless they get Skubal, the beast, I think we won’t have multiple pitchers crumble coming out of spring training. I’d risk under-buying starters, and shoring up the massively used bullpen.
ReplyDeleteThanks Tom - I think Sproat has to be in the rotation. He gave up 10 runs in 3 IP, 1 run in the other 17 IP. He was a couple batters away here and there in those 3 outings from putting up numbers like McLean. It’s wild.
DeleteTong wasn’t ready -> but I think he needed the experience. It was too easy in the minors. Now he knows what to work on.
I'm sticking to my plan
ReplyDeleteSkenes or Skubal for package without McLean and Benge
Past that hold your cards
Still sticking close to you Mack with the added condition that you cant trade both of Sproat and Tong in these scenarios (preferably keeping Tong. I think he’s going to be special). One or the other of sproat and tong plus Jett and 2-4 other players not as close but that are legit prospects.
DeleteOtherwise go sign a FA that makes sense. Framber is probably the best. Bit of a head case and it wont age super well but we can afford to do that.
Some of our underperforming vets from last year will turn it around.
Stack the bullpen. Sign Pete belinger trade away nimmo and keep jeff for LF/2B and when Benge is ready you can move Belly to RF, soto to LF and pete can split time at 1B / DH with Mcneil
I think one TOR starter from FA would be worth it. Michael King will likely be much cheaper than Cease but is great when healthy. I think Mets add by subtracting one of its veteran starters.
ReplyDeleteI don't really want to trade what would be necessary for Joe Ryan.
Agree with the general consensus. You can't sign any of the available starters long term for what they are asking. The only pitchers I would consider are for 1 or 2 years...similar to what they did with Holmes.
ReplyDeleteThis way when Peterson leaves and Holmes possibly opting out you still have a backup plan.
Otherwise, we have about 8 potential starters already.
Exactly what I saw -> minimum 8 guys ready right now.
DeletePlus we have Santucci, Thornton, and Wenninger starting at AAA. Watson will start at AA and will head to AAA by the all-star break.
I hope Stearns reads this.
ReplyDeleteManea 2024 season
Peterson 2025 first half
Senga 2025 pre injury
Holmes 2025 season
McLean looks like an ace in 2025
A lot of IF's but what pitcher is no IF? Skenes can blow out his arm during the first pitch next year. Nobody knows. All projection.
Exactly! nobody being suggested is a lock-down 185+ IP of mid 3 ERA and low 200 BAA pitcher. We have the guys who can do that already under contract. Plus the 4-6 kids who also deserve their shot all with plus stuff and plus command. Skubal isn’t going anywhere - Tigers are built to win, if they win a World Series w Skubal -> that increases the valuation of the franchise by 1.5 billion. Then if he leaves, the owner at least has something to show for it.
DeleteWorst case scenario -> much better investments become available next winter and after the 2027 season -> multiple bonafide aces in their prime, 4 of them LHP.
Skubal & Luzardo after 2026 | Gore and McClanahan after 2027.
Those are the guys we should be going all in for.
I agree.No trade. Stand pat with what we have. Then go after free agents if necessary.
ReplyDeleteThanks Martin! As bad as 2025 finished -> people forget how great it began. If not for some freak occurrences -> it could’ve ended just as well as it began from a rotation standpoint. Now we have the depth pieces to at least try the veterans and if they stumble -> we literally have 2 potential prospects for each veteran to try in their place.
DeleteI like the status quo. Keep away from expensive FAs and costly trades. Our vets plus top of line prospects will win a lot of games.
ReplyDeleteExactly -> worst thing we can do is keep adding contracts we regret that take us out of contention of signing the real game changers hitting the open market after 2026 and 2027. Plus we’ll have a ton of payroll freeing up to add a Skubal after 26 and even add Gire or McClanahan after 2027.
DeleteImagine having Skubal and McClanahan as our #1 & #3, with McLean and Tong. Pitching around them. Not to mention having Sproat and Santucci as our 5 and 6 will help them both be 12-15 wins a year. Having those kids on pre-arbitration salaries allows us to go big on at least 2 big time LHP with all the money coming off and our lineup also infusing more young talent and potentially shedding more payroll.
Mike, you’re talking to Mets fans. Stressed out New Yorkers or ex-New Yorkers that feel like the grass is ALWAYS greener on the other side. To me the biggest risk is Peterson. He just fell off a cliff priduction wise without any reason. I see a TJ coming, but I hope not for the guy. I like Cease. Last year was a down year for him but he was excellent for a few years before that. I always like to look at more than one year. As I wrote earlier this morning, I like Imai also as an upside play. Lastly, Manaea last year didn’t look like the Manaea we saw the year before. The weight, the performance, the endurance.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing that must be considered: The Mets need starters that can go seven innings regularly. This five and five bullshit has to go. It will kill the bullpen again.
Everything changed for Peterson after the CG + Mendoza pushing him to pitch into the 8th the very next start. It’s not always pitch count but how long you keep them out there.
DeleteAlvarez was his primary catcher -> after that Braves game he fell apart
Phillies (Torrens) & Pirates (Senger)
Who knows if he would’ve collapsed like he did if we stuck to keep him at 6-7 IP per start. We’ve all seen how 1 outing that results in over-usage can start a chain reaction for a pitcher to collapse.
Similar to how Johan Santana fell apart after his no-hitter
I am in the camp of not signing a free agent pitcher. They all come with warts meaning that you will be paying big dollars for only two years of production (maybe two years in some cases).
ReplyDeleteI believe the pipe line will provide plenty of number twos and threes with McLean as the SP1. I assume part two of Angry Mike’s will be looking at that pipeline.
Yes sir -> already loaded up and scheduled for Thursday!
DeleteI will tell my pitching coach, whatever starter isn’t averaging six innings is getting yanked from the rotation. Too much entitlement and coddling on this team.
ReplyDeleteThis needs to be said out loud. The Mets are not going to win the world series in 2026. Not with Pete and Edwin back, not with the three rookies in the rotation, and not with a well-rested Peterson. There is just too far to go. So Angry Mike is correct - going all in on a top of the rotation starter is not going to change things right now. Save the prospects, let them show what they can do, build a winning attitude during the 2026 season, and then when the team is much closer to the prize you can pull the trigger to acquire that pricey piece that is the missing link.
ReplyDeletePaul, why do you feel that way? They went to the World Series in 2015 and had a very good chance to win but their bats all took time off. They went to the NLCS in 2024 but their rotation all hit a wall. Why couldn’t they, led by Soto, Lindor and pitching that performs to their expectations carry this club deep into October if the kids - Baty, Alvarez, Vientos, with Nimmo - all do their job as expected? Did anyone expect the Blue Jays to be there this year, and should have won?
DeleteLookat home many (few, really) innings they got from Mania, Mound Toss, Senga the slinger, and Canning. So hard to make all that up. During a season.
DeleteJust 300 days ninny’s from those dudes. Then, Megill and his 68 IP blew up, too.
DeleteThanks Paul! I still think the Mets can compete this year with our guys. If the Bluejays can take the Dodgers to 7 games and lose in the 11th -> we have the guys to beat them in 6 games -> if we fix our bullpen.
Delete