The New York Mets are coming off one of the more disappointing seasons relative to preseason expectations. Coming off a season in which New York reached the National League Championship Series, the Mets appeared as if they had carried their momentum into the 2025 season. By the middle summer months, the Mets were playing like the best team in baseball, but as the dog days of summer went on, things unraveled rapidly. After losing two out of its final three contests to the Miami Marlins, Carlos Mendoza’s squad finished outside of the playoff picture with an uninspiring 83-79 record.
A lot of fingers pointed at the pitching down the stretch as the main reason for the Mets’ collapse. Griffin Canning was having a career year before rupturing his Achilles to end his season prematurely. Key free agent acquisition Clay Holmes started the year strong, but in his first year as a starter, the former Yankees’ reliever could not have been trusted to consistently work deep into ballgames. Holmes was one of only two Mets pitchers to qualify in innings (162 innings or more). The aforementioned Canning finished fourth on the team in innings despite not pitching past the first week in June. Both Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas struggled mightily. Kodai Senga was expected to be the staff’s ace coming into the year. Although the former Japanese star looked like a Cy Young contender to begin the season, a midseason injury derailed his year. After spending a month on the shelf, Senga did not return to form in the second half of the season. He surrendered three or more runs in six of his last eight starts and did not offer much length.
As the Mets turned the page and looked ahead to 2026, all eyes were on David Stearns and how he was going to fix the rotation. Coming from the Milwaukee Brewers, Stearns had plenty of experience developing young pitching and finding diamonds in the rough, but with Steve Cohen’s resources and a deep farm system, there was an expectation that Stearns would not go bargain hunting like he had done in the past. As the months turned, fans and analysts waited and waited to see what move Stearns had up his sleeve. One day after former New York Met Carlos Beltrán was announced as an MLB Hall of Famer, Stearns made his move.
The Mets headline acquisition was ace pitcher Freddy Peralta from the Brewers in a trade for a young pitcher in Brandon Sproat and utility prospect Jett Williams. Peralta, coming off a season when he finished top five in Cy Young voting, understandably drew the majority of eyeballs, but with Peralta having just one more year left on his contract, two promising players in Sproat and Williams might be a tough pill to swallow to hand over in the swap, which is why the real value in the trade could come from the secondary name: Tobias Myers.
In 2024, Myers pitched nearly 140 innings and made 25 starts over the course of that season. He pitched to an impressive 3.00 ERA and recorded an eye-opening 138 ERA+ (38 points better than a league average number of 100). Had Myers qualified and kept those same numbers, he would’ve tied for sixth in all of baseball with Framber Valdez. Valdez meanwhile just signed a three-year contract with the Detroit Tigers for almost $40 million a season. Myers’ WHIP of 1.17 would have been just behind Luis Castillo. Maybe what’s most impressive from the former Brewer is the control he displayed. His 2.3 walk rate had him just outside the top 20 in the big leagues.
Myers currently has only one year of service time attached to him and is not scheduled to test the open market until 2031 and isn’t even eligible for arbitration for another two seasons. With Myers still being in pre-arbitration, he will represent a very cheap option on the Mets pitching staff for years to come.
The risk with the righty is that he only made 22 appearances (six starts) in 2025 after he struggled to return to form after suffering an oblique injury. After over a month-long stint in the minor leagues, Myers started to get back to the performances Milwaukee had grown accustomed to. Although most of his work came out of the bullpen, he showed that the pitcher that was great in 2024 as a rookie was still inside him. He finished his season with an impressive ERA- of 85 (100 is league average and a lower number is better). In 2024, he registered a 73 in the same metric. In an era when the long ball is as prevalent as ever, Myers improved his home run rate last season, dropping it to below 0.90.
Last season, Myers relied heavily on his four-seam fastball, throwing it 45% of the time. He then mixed up his cutter (19%), slider (17%) and splitter (16%) to round out the majority of his repertoire. The Florida native does not blow anyone away, as his fastball sits in the middle to low 90s. He did throw a changeup more in 2024, but only tossed it a dozen times this past season. After adding a splitter in his sophomore season, opponents mustered only a .108 batting average against it. As Myers enters spring training healthy, it will be interesting to watch if he throws his splitter and slider (.167 opponent average) more often while peeling back on his harder stuff.
As of now, the former sixth round pick is ramping up as if he will be a starter in the Mets rotation, but with the rotation healthy heading into big league camp, that remains to be seen. Coming from the Brewers, Stearns has plenty of experience firsthand at developing pitchers in reliever roles before promoting them to the big league rotation. The baseball world saw this with the likes of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. Another key element is Myers still has an option left, so in an ideal world where the Mets remain healthy going into the final week of March, Stearns and company could send Myers to the minor leagues in Syracuse before inevitably calling him when an injury or spot start occurs. Whatever the plan is in February, Myers gives the Mets plenty of options and offers much-needed flexibility no matter the health status of New York’s starting five.
It is rare to see a team give up multiple noteworthy promising prospects for a player with only one year of control remaining on his contract. That would’ve been the case had Peralta been the only player coming over from the Brewers, but with Myers joining him in Queens, the trade could still pay dividends beyond the 2026 season. Even as the Mets look to compete for a World Series over the next eight months, Myers will play a role in that quest and could become an unsung hero when we reach the fall months and turn the page to October. This isn’t to say Myers will come in and fix all of New York’s issues in its rotation, but he will provide the organization plenty of versatility for a team that was left scrambling in the midst of a playoff race a season ago.
Welcome. I agree that Tobias will be an important pitcher in 2026 for NYM. The Mets will use a bare minimum of 25 pitchers this year. Probably many more. He will be well used.
ReplyDeleteStearns has been up front in saying Myers will be in the bullpen to give length. The starting six have been identified, and I’m good with that. But what hurt the Mets last year was not moving on from what wasn’t working. While their big league pitchers were gasping for air, they had three kids in the minors that they could give a chance to. If Holmes and Manaea aren’t holding up their end of the bargain, Myers deserves his shot too. My first target would be Holmes because his underlying numbers last year were eh.
ReplyDeleteWelcome, Alex. Good beginning too. You can't argue with Myers' numbers and promise, and as someone who favors actual performance as a basis for projecting into the future over skillsets, I am comforted by his numbers. But not by his bio-mechanics. All of these over the top deliveries you see today involve either of two moves (sometimes both) both of which are potential injuries waiting to happen. I've seen commentators characterize Myers' delivery as similar to Tongs', but bio mechanically they are likely different. Tong's actual arm delivery angle relative to his body is actually a 3/4 delivery. He gets his arm angle relative to the ground as perpendicular as he does through left lateral bend which bends the spine in one direction far too much (how much is important, but so too is which part of the spine is being bent) Some parts, especially in the lower spine are designed for structural support, not for bending. I would have to measure and see where it is coming from, but the worry is that he will suffer lower back problems which may be debilitating. As the picture that accompanies your post shows, Myers' achieves his over the top delivery angle largely through extension of spine (for those of you who play golf, look at his back which mirrors what in golf was referred to as the 'reverse C' position that was abandoned primarily because it was the source of so many injuries and shortened careers). Again, for health reasons, you want all the bend in the spine (regardless of the direction of the bend) to come from the rib cage up). If any comes below that you are looking at potential back and oblique injuries. There is always going to be some extension of the spine when pitching, but the extension in both Myers' and Tongs' patterns -- though the bending of the spine is in different directions and initiated differently -- are potential source of debilitating injury and shorter careers.
ReplyDeleteEvery complete motion in every sport involves piecing movements together. There is a reason why most arm angles in pitching fall within the 3/4 range, it's easier on the body -- especially the back and the spine. It's also easier to rotate the pelvis when it is level and the spine straight, and with pitchers emphasizing the slinging motion to generate as much speed as they can, they need rotation in the pelvis to help keep the arm/hand/ball behind them longer to sling it with the greatest and latest full transfer of energy through the kinematic sequence. It's dangerous and less efficient.
As a follower of baseball for half a century, I have to disagree with you. Not because I know better, but over the years I’ve seen many players have success doing something well and having someone try to “correct” them and mess them up completely. Further, to try to predict injuries is noble, but I present players such is Seth Lugo who everyone is waiting for his TJ surgery since 2019, but here he is seven years later doing quite well as a starter that the Mets refused to allow. Carlos Correa with the plate in his ankle may not be worth a seven year deal, but the Twins and Astros were just fine with the three year deal.
DeleteWhile this may not be preferred, if a player is successful with his batting stance or his windup, that player should be left alone. Remember Luis Tiant?
If Myers and Tong are good with their throwing method and that’s what got them to the major leagues, they should continue to improve on what they have and a team (the Mets) should look to help them and not find them to be “potential breakdown cases” because baseball is full of those guys anyway.
To see what i am talking about take a close look at the picture of Myers' again. The position of the various parts of his (upper) body look like a front on view of.a trebuchet or catapult. The lower body really has to be strong as well to support the upper body movement while maintaining balance and accuracy. His looks strong and stable which contributes to his low walk rate.. I find that a lot of observers don't look in the right places when explaining causes of performance, especially in pitching, and especially on matters of control. Imagine Myers' upper body motion on a less stable and sturdy foundation.
ReplyDeleteWelcome Alex
ReplyDeleteNice to have you on board. Think it's time for the Mets to hire the Professor. He really knows stuff.
I am hopeful that the Mets' technology in the pitching lab will help Myers reach his full potential. This would be a great gain for the team.
ReplyDelete@TexasGus, I don't think I ever suggested that we do anything to change what either Tong or Myers are doing. I believe explicitly stated the opposite when discussing Tong earlier. I am giving bio-mechanical explanations of how they do what they do, the risks associated with doing so, not to suggest changes, but to express concerns about how long they may be able to do what they are doing effectively and without injury.
ReplyDeleteI am in this case, cautiously pessimistic about the length of their careers, not their ability to perform well during that period. :-)
There are 3 possible outcomes: 1. they are among the lucky ones who don't suffer injuries at all and don't experience abnormal rate of declining performance. As an example. Jack Nicklaus who played with a reverse C finish most of his career and never experienced debilitating injury during long playing career. It did take its toll as it always will later in life and he can hardly swing a club now
2. The brain typically works to help you avoid pain. This will lead to unconscious compensations to avoid injury and a sustainable version of what you are doing will emerge. While sustainable and less prone to injury you may see a decline in performance
3. Compensations don't work and you suffer what are injuries that can only be repaired by surgery (e.g. Tiger Woods,) an if you are an amazing athlete you come back from it (NB golfers play longer than BB players so they can survive longer recovery periods). Or you fall off the cliff after burning brightly for a period of time: Linsecom as a pitcher, Johnny Miller as a golfer with a big reverse C.
Unicorns, self-adjusters and performers at various levels of success until the injury occurs. If a young kid comes to me for lessons or even pitching advice and has one of these hard on the body movements, I get them to change it as they haven't developed a life long pattern as yet and are physically very pliable. If someone came to me as a mid to late teenager and with a pattern and movement they play with successfully, I inform them of the risks and leave it to them to decide whether to make a change, explaining the relative difficulty of doing so. If someone is already in a movement and very successful and in their 20s with a career likely to last no longer than 10 years at best, why even encourage them to change. I never do. Nor would I encourage a major league pitcher to do so. That would be crazy. When the career is over, the body will tell them how to change to avoid pain and continue to enjoy healthy movement
Ok… just pointing out that unorthodox ways work too
DeleteI completely get it :-)
ReplyDeleteBut there are lots of unorthodox ways that are not potentially dangerous. And, as I strongly believe, both from my relatively ineffective time as a pitcher and my somewhat more successful career as a golfer and coach, all movements involve matchups. What looks unorthodox can match up well with other moves and be very effective; but my concern is always which the requisite match up is potentially injurious. I've seen too much of the latter not to be concerned.