Reese Kaplan -- How Much is Really Too Much?

Every now and then conjecture crosses your path that is seemingly ludicrous yet at the same time it enervates places in your head and heart that you thought were long forgotten and protected.  How many of you remember when the Mets decided that they were bigger than any player and in the same time period traded away all time pitching icon Tom Seaver and in the same week slugger Dave Kingman?  You can’t figure out how to rationalize or absorb the cold, cruel reality of what the ownership did and everyone who had a pulse knew it was completely wrong. 

What the Mets got in return from the Cincinnati Reds was a very solid pitcher who’d won Rookie of the Year in Pat Zachry, a great glove/no bat infielder in Doug Flynn and two minor league wildcards in outfielders Steve Henderson and Dan Norman.  There is no way to suggest that the haul justified pushing out the greatest pitcher in team history, one who would be a first ballot Hall of Famer for frankly a whole lotta nuthin.

Many years later the Mets were on the opposite side of the trading block.  Apparently the Minnesota Twins were concerned about the long term cost of Johan Santana, including his upcoming free agency.  The Mets put together a package for the Twins that included Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey.  The Mets were taking on a one year wonder with no guarantee he’d be around for the long haul.  They gave up a package of four decent prospects but at the same time it didn’t necessarily feel like equal value for a starting pitcher in Santana who a two time Cy Young award winner and then a three time All Star.  He finished his abbreviated career with a 3.20 ERA at just age 33 due to injuries.  For the Mets he appeared in four seasons often shortened by health problems and missed one entirely with arm problems requiring extensive recovery.  He also authored the only no hitter in Mets history.

This trip down memory lane came to mind when the ridiculous rumor surfaced that the Mets have theoretically a gross overpay in mind to secure the best pitcher in baseball from the Detroit Tigers.  Since becoming a regular starting pitcher in 2024 Tarik Skubal has made two All Star teams and won two consecutive Cy Young awards.  At age 28 he has a 54-38 career record with a 3.08 ERA, but during this two years as the lead of the Tigers rotation he is 31-10 with a 2.30 ERA while whiffing 469 batters in 387.1 innings.  He also exhibited awesome control with just a 1.6 walks per 9 IP.  His WHIP for these past two years is just 0.906.  There’s no denying his pedigree as the top lefty in the game.

So what is the theoretical asking price?  Well, make sure you’re sitting down to absorb the whole enchilada.  First to go would be reliever turned starter Clay Holmes.  Now it’s understandable that if the Mets add a starter and the Tigers are losing one then they need a solid player to fill that void.  However, that’s when it starts getting a bit more dicey.  The rest of the package included top pitching prospect Jonah Tong and outfield prospect Carson Benge.  Yikes!

Now don’t try to draw a parallel to the owner-spite behind the Tom Seaver trade and instead focus on the deal the club made for Santana.  They gave up four solid prospects to obtain one of the best pitchers in the game and given the future metrics from the four sacrificed players the Mets most certainly won that deal by a wide margin. 

Similarly Tarik Skubal is one year from free agency, much like Santana was.  Consequently no matter what you give up to bring him to Citifield there’s no guarantee he would be there for more than the 2026 season.  That’s where the huge question marks reside.  Do you give up the present in Clay Holmes and the near future in Jonah Tong and Carson Benge for what could potentially end up being a great but very trade expensive one year rental?

If the Mets had a starting rotation that included Skubal, Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean and some combination of David Peterson, Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea it would most certainly help balance out the uneven offensive roster.  However, if Skubal deferred long term contract details with his new employer then you have to reconsider if what you gave up is an overpay for potentially just the 2026 season.

Personally, I could go either way.  We saw Tong looking very unready for the majors in his rushed promotion last September.  We applaud what Benge can bring to the table but he’s more of a high batting average hitter with moderate power than he is a true slugger.  We saw Holmes deliver respectable work in his conversion to starter.  There’s no guarantee what the Tigers would get long term with any of them, but you almost wish there could be some kind of window to negotiate with Skubal before the deal was made.  Then you kind of swallow hard and if you know he’s a long term Met you accept the cost of the deal both in terms of his salary guarantee and the players required to make it happen.