Alex Rubinson - Francisco Alvarez has Finally Arrived

Long before Carson Benge, Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong, there was Francisco Álvarez, the Mets top prospect three years ago and a top five prospect in all of baseball. A power-hitting catcher, who could not even drink when he smashed his first big league home run and showcased his 70-grade power stroke. Álvarez was seen as the next great middle of the order bat for the Mets. Even on a team filled with stars, the thought was he would at least be one of the faces of the franchise moving forward. Through 2025, that had not been the case. He played in a combined 176 games between 2024 and 2025. He had never accumulated a two win season. He was still young enough where it was too early to tell the player he would eventually become, but he hadn’t blossomed like fans were hoping for. 

Fast forward to 2026, and the young slugger behind the dish might finally be coming into his own. Álvarez already has three long balls this season, which is over a quarter of his single- season totals from 2024 and 2025 respectively. His 194 OPS+ jumps out, and even if that is not sustainable, there is a reason to believe that his first 11 games are more than just a mirage. 

Among players with at least 25 plate appearances, Álvarez is third in expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA). The only two hitters ahead of him are Ben Rice and Yordan Alvarez. The Mets catcher is tied with Rice for fourth in all of baseball in barrel percentage at 25%.

Álvarez is in the 84th percentile in the early going in both expected batting average and overall batting run value. All of his expected stats are a bright red on his baseball savant page. In addition to his xWOBA and barrel percentage, Álvarez is in the 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage. 

Due to his limited playing time last season, Álvarez did not qualify in these metrics during his 2025 campaign. Having said that, we can still see where he has made drastic improvements under the Mets new hitting philosophy led by Director of Major League Hitting Jeff Albert and Hitting Coach Troy Snitker. Last year, Álvarez's barrel rate was at 12%. In the small sample to begin 2026, that number has more than doubled. His expected batting average a season ago was a mediocre .229 with an xWOBA of .326. This season, his expected average is .291 with an xWOBA just below .475. His expected slugging is over 300 points higher than it was in 2025.  

What is interesting is that Álvarez's hard hit rate and bat speed aren’t drastically different than they were a season ago. It is actually almost impressive that the 24-year-old is putting up these numbers despite average strikeout and walk rates. It shows someone that there is still untapped potential in Álvarez’s skillset even if he improves those numbers marginally. 

The biggest question for the 233 pound catcher will be health. Catchers will never be asked to play on an everyday basis, but if Álvarez can be a reliable athlete that Mendoza can pencil into the starting lineup, that will go a long way to helping lengthen the Mets' offensive firepower. On Opening Day, Álvarez was the nine-hole hitter and has been slated there for most of the season thus far. For David Stearns and Mendoza, it is time to experiment hitting their catcher higher in the order, especially with Juan Soto expected to miss the next few weeks due to a calf injury. Between Soto’s injury and the slow starts by Bo Bichette, Francisco Lindor and Jorge Polanco, New York has been leaning more heavily on Álvarez than they had planned. Luckily, Álvarez has stepped up and been a catalyst for the organization. 

Although defense was never Álvarez’s calling card, it will be fascinating to watch if the catcher can progress behind the dish. In 2025, he was in the 60th percentile caught stealing above average and in the 68th percentile in pop time. With the new ABS challenge system, framing does lose some of its value but can still be important. If Álvarez continues to swing the bat like he has been, the Mets don’t need him to be close to gold glove caliber, but it would be crucial to see if he can at least improve from being in just the 11th percentile in blocking. After all, he has already shown he has not come close to reaching his potential offensively with more room to grow. 

Álvarez broke onto the scene with the weight of Queens on his shoulders. He was expected to perform at a high level right off the bat. These expectations were probably unfair, but as excitement and anticipation has been placed on other younger players, fans and the media have started to overlook the former top prospect. Now, Álvarez is finally coming into his own and reaching his offensive potential. Even if his offensive numbers come back down to earth, it appears he has finally turned the corner and is showing the world what he is made of with all the talent that was always hidden inside of him.