Alex Rubinson - Throwing the Curve and Inducing Groundballs, Holmes is more than the Mets could have ever hoped for

When the New York Mets signed Clay Holmes ahead of the 2025 season, there were significant questions on if the dominant reliever could fully transition into becoming a full-time starter. We had seen examples with David Stearns deploying this strategy with the Milwaukee Brewers with the likes of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, but those hurlers made the transition very early in their respective careers. On the flip side, the San Francisco Giants signed Jordan Hicks to a four-year $44 million contract with the hopes of converting him into a starter. 

Unfortunately for the Bay Area team, that decision blew up in their faces. For Holmes, it may have not always been pretty, but the decision saw positive returns. The former New York Yankee tossed over 165 innings while pitching to a 115 ERA+ in his first season in Queens. Although we are only a month into the 2026 season, and the biggest question regarding Holmes has been stamina, he has appeared even more comfortable in the early goings during his second season in a big league rotation. 

Holmes turned in one of his more dominant outings on Tuesday against the Washington Nationals. The Nats offense has started to come back down to earth but had been surprisingly a solid unit to begin the 2026 campaign. Holmes went six shutout frames and only surrendered three hits and one walk. Earlier in the month, he shutout the Giants across seven innings and only allowed three hits in that contest as well. 

There might be reason to believe that Holmes will eventually come back down to earth. A 1.75 ERA is not sustainable for just about any pitcher (except maybe if your name is Paul Skenes). Still, all of Holmes’ pitches are returning plus value. According to Baseball Savant, his overall pitching run value of five is in the 89th percentile among all big leaguers. Both his fastball and offspeed run value are at two (he gets another run of value from his breaking stuff). The offspeed value is all the way up in the 88th percentile. It’s impressive when his breaking pitches are bringing up the rear but still place in the 72nd percentile. 

What has been most impressive is that Holmes is retaining his value despite a high volume of innings in the first month. Entering Wednesday,He currently ranks just inside the top 20 in innings pitched. In an era of the five-and-dive starting pitcher, Holmes is giving Carlos Mendoza’s squad length. That within itself is a valuable commodity. 

Holmes has brought back his curveball. Prior to 2026, Holmes had not thrown his curve since 2021. The curve replaces the slider, which he threw about 11% of the time a season ago. Whether it was Holmes’ decision or the Mets’ new pitching brain trust, the decision to replace the slider with the curveball has paid off. 

Last year, opponents slugged nearly .530 against the slider. Although he is still working in the curve (only thrown 37 total times), hitters have not mustered a single hit against the pitch. He has thrown it almost exclusively to lefties. In addition to re-introducing the curveball into his repertoire, Holmes has ditched the four-seam fastball. He never heavily relied on it, but he did throw it five percent of the time in 2025. This year, he has thrown the four-seamer a grand total of once. 

Holmes’ raw stuff has not been overpowering hitters. His strikeout rate (16th percentile), whiff rate (35th percentile) and even his hard hit rate (37th percentile) are nothing to brag about. Where Holmes makes his money is getting hitters to chase outside the strike zone. He is in the 74th percentile in chase percentage. 

Normally, one might think that would be associated with a higher whiff rate, but instead, hitters are making contact, but it’s on the ground. Holmes is in the 90th percentile in ground ball rate. He induces ground balls at over 55% of the time. In an era of opponents trying to lift the ball, being able to keep hitters on the ground is a premium skill. Those underlying statistics will allow Holmes to maintain solid numbers even if he isn’t supporting a sub-2.00 ERA within the ensuing months. 

This isn’t an anomaly either. From 2021-2023, when he was a dominant relief pitcher, Holmes' opponent pull air percentage was anywhere between 5.5-7.5 percent. Although that number has climbed since becoming a starter, he still maintains a very good pull air rate of just over 13%. That number might appear high given his reliever rates, but it still ranks relatively well when compared to the rest of the league. In the early part of this season, Holmes has cut off over 50 points in wOBA and his launch angle sweet spot is down to just under 25%. This goes a long way to keeping the ball on the ground and giving your defense the opportunity to make plays behind you. 

The pitch for Holmes to watch closely will be his sinker. He throws it nearly half of the time. Hitters are currently only batting .161 against his primary pitch, but the expected batting average is .283, which is an enormous jump. This isn’t to say that we should all of a sudden expect his sinker to get knocked around the ballpark, but it’s why his hot start might not be completely sustainable. Maybe Holmes has mastered the ability to get batters to hit the ball to where the defenders play, but the .161 average might start to trend upward, especially once the weather in New York warms up and the ball does carry farther. On the other hand, if Holmes can keep opponents on the ground, that might not be a problem.

When the Mets inked Holmes to a three-year contract, they were hoping he could give them a solid five innings every fifth day and slot into the backend of their rotation. Due to injuries and other starters underperforming, Holmes has been thrusted into a larger role. It’s a big risk when depending on a former reliever to give you quality starter innings over a six-month season. It’s not always going to be pretty and look as dominant as it did on Tuesday night, but in a time when Stearns has faced a lot of backlash for his roster construction, it appears he is being proven right in seeing a full-time starter in Clay Holmes.