Paul Articulates - Power outage

The New York Mets have struggled mightily in April.  That is no secret.  Why they have struggled so much with a redesigned team that seemed to have a purposeful design is a difficult question to answer.

The plan

The clearly stated objective by the Mets front office in the off-season was to improve the team’s run prevention.  That objective was to be accomplished in two ways:  first, bolster the defense with players that had better demonstrated capabilities on the field; second, bolster the pitching staff with a new ace and a stronger bullpen.

The plan was not accomplished to perfection, as Diaz was a surprise departure, and some of the Mets’ targets signed with other teams.  However, the front office seemed to be pleased with what they ended up with.  Roberts, Semien, Bichette, and Benge all seemed to be upgrades defensively at the position they were assigned.  Weaver and Williams were great adds to the pen, though they would have been better positioned as set-up men for Diaz.

The outcome

When you trade away players like Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, you may be improving defense, but it comes with a cost – power was certainly lost in the exchange.  This was a calculated risk they felt was worth taking.  There was also a hint of power in some of the names they brought in – Polanco, Robert, and Bichette all had career OPS greater than .760.   Both Baty and Vientos had shown glimpses of power in their erratic careers to date.

Defensively, the team shows net improvement in OAA and DRS.  But the team ERA is middle-of-the-pack and the Mets are still being outscored.

The reality

The power void on this team is greater than imagined, and with the lack of clutch hitting with RISP, only a few well-placed homers could tilt the competitive balance in the Mets direction. The Mets are dead last in MLB with a .636 OPS.  That is 27 points lower than the next worst team (Giants), and 183 points lower than the best (Dodgers).  Only a single player (Alvarez) has an OPS higher than .700 on the Mets right now.

Power is mostly generated by the individual player’s swing, but is influenced by the opposing pitcher’s talent and the environment (weather, field dimensions).  If you put great power hitters in a difficult park, you get good power hitters.  If opposing pitchers are tricky enough, great swings result in less barrels.  Those may indeed be factors in the lack of power performance on this team so far.  However, I can’t say that there have been a lot of great swings witnessed over the first 26 games and that is cause for concern.

The take-away

I never thought that I could get behind the all-out swings and increased launch angles taught to the MLB prospects.  I have always had the mindset that more hits is better for baseball than less hits/more home runs.  However, this very painful start to the season is producing a dataset that may sway my thinking.  There have been too many games so far where a few solo home runs would have changed the outcome of a game where the Mets out-hit the opponents.  

There is much to play out this season.  A healthy Soto can hit 40 home runs.  A healthy Lindor is good for 30.  But if this team is still competitive by mid-season, a power bat is going to be a necessity at the trade deadline.