One of the ways to approach the Alonso size black hole at first base is to keep meandering along with AAAA types or people who might give you a 20+ HR output, not bad but certainly not what you’d expect from a cleanup hitter. Already Alec Bohm has come up as a possibility to cross the diamond to play first, but he has a reputation for being not the happiest camper in the clubhouse and his offensive production is mid range at best.
Right now France was paid next to nothing for his age 31 season in San Diego. Given his strong output in 2026 which also included ending with a 4.5 WAR, he’ll get a sizable increase in pay and likely will command 2-3 years rather than a never ending long term deal. If you make the annual rate a little higher then it’s possible to get him to agree to a shorter deal. He would address the now dismissed run prevention idea while not embarrassing himself at the plate.
Lurking in the minors even if you write off Ryan Clifford who hasn’t learned how to make contact and to prevent striking out, you do have to consider the future for Billy Amick. He’s not perfect either because he’s whiffed 246 times in about a season and a half of games played. That’s a concern as is his minor league career average of .248. Where it gets brighter is in run production. In 731 ABs he has hit 45 HRs and driven in 148.
These Amick numbers enter into the equation as Jorge Polanco is a goner after 2027 and you won’t get nearly that level of output from Jared Young. Consequently the addition of a two year deal for Ty France helps the club hedge its bets on whether or not Amick can improve his numbers.
There are other first base options from people who are not native players at that position or who could be obtained in trade. You could plug in a less than ideal free agent like Rhys Hoskins who will provide power but not much else. The plus there is he is not posting numbers strong enough to entice anyone to offer hi a long term deal. As it stands right now there is no clear answer to who will man that position other than Jared Young who is not bad but not that good either.
This is a hard one because there is so much uncertainty and also because no team can really field a potential all=star at every position. I'm a believer in the importance of defense at 1B. The position's importance is underrated. Alonso had his defensive limitations, but he did an excellent job of picking throws out of the dirt; and in the course of a season there a lot of those from other infielders, not to mention wild pick off attempts with a runner heading back into the base.
ReplyDeleteIn the past the Mets were blessed with a few 1Bmen who were graceful and efficient fielders and solid hitters (if not long ballers). My two favorites were Hernandez and Olerud.
I don't want to see Polanco or Hoskins there. I argued for France last off season and he makes some sense but the line-up is a little left handed heavy already.
I don't see the value of Bohm either.
I don't know about the level of investment it would take to get Sato, but the value of committing to him is that it turns people like Amick into primarily DHs and back-ups. A Schwarber esque approach to the position, which is not all bad.
I'd like to see the Mets take care of other issues first and think of Young as the baseline/place holder.
I agree. Young played a confident, professional defense. I don't expect much more offensively in 2027.
DeleteI hold steadfast to
ReplyDeleteFirst half of 2027 - Young
Second half - Amick
Goldschmidt as the RH player. Still plays defense & will hit 15-20 HR in 360 ABs. Cost approx $4-5M for 1 year. Plug 1B & resolve 2B, & pitching.
ReplyDeleteI have guidance for Stearns: When you make this decision, make the correct one.
ReplyDeleteIf the Mets sign France, we may end up with Parisian riots in the Queens streets..
Goldschmidt had an anemic second half (105 at bats, 3 HR, 10 RBI, .238) and 0 for 6 playoffs. He turns 40 next Sept. And is getting older by the day. I’d rather take a chance on keeping the 13 years younger Vientos as the righty 1B/DH. And I don’t want to do that either.
I believe the team really needs to find a longer term solution for first base. I know many here feel that Amick is the answer with some saying by the AS break. Yes, I loved the homers and the RBIs. But the underlying stats to create them were so very not pretty. Let me defer to those who know more. MLB has four other potential first baseman in the top 30 prospects. All dismissed on this blog. Amick not listed. The Mets360 consensus listing has Amick at number 28.
ReplyDeleteI believe the current state of first base is not good. Although there maybe something in the pipeline, we agree that 80 percent may not be the longer term solution.
If I were to take a short term approach, I would be looking towards Walker in a swap of bad contracts.
I'm not sure a swap of bad contracts solves anything really. We did that once just recently (Nimmo/Semien) and arguably that made matters worse (though it did open up an outfield position for Benge as an unintended consequence. Ironically, we took on another terrible contract in Robert (without returning one to the Chisox) and that had the unforseen consequence of opening up a spot for Ewing. So maybe I should reevaluate my disdain of bad contracts :-)
ReplyDeleteBeginning to feel like Peter Sellers in Dr. Strangelove!
Here's a potential general principle to follow as part of a guideline to roster construction: While you can't have all-stars at every position, you certainly want to avoid having question marks that need to be answered positively in order to have a successful season. Minimize genuine question marks where a positive answer is really just a prayer you are hoping gets answered. That's the weakest baseline standard. And by that standard, I am a resounding NO to Vientos at 1B or in the dugout.
ReplyDeleteOne is in prayer mode when the bulk of existing evidence is against a positive answer -- as it is in Vientos case.
The existence evidence for Young is a combo of recently (modestly positive and sound), and long term (dubious about its sustainability).
The evidence for Baty is mixed between (short term a cross between meh and a hair below acceptable) and long term (it has always been thus), which suggests that the rational conclusion is an unacceptable 'no basis for positive answer)
You;ll quickly see if you follow the basic principle you get some pretty clear results at least with regard to who we should not be counting on. I think you'll see that Mauricio falls somewhere between the answer given to Baty and an 'incomplete.'
The answer you give to Alvarez would be a resounding 'he drives me crazy' and I'm hopeful it's an incomplete.
I use this standard when I go through the Mets pitching staff in my next post and as you'll see there a lot of 'seems promising but definitely incomplete' grades which means you don't have to pray for a miracle to get a positive answer to the question, but you sure as hell can't count on the answer being yes.
So overall re: 1B -- I want the baseline to be a top tier defender and everything else is a bonus; not a tradeoff between offense and defense. At least until we develop our own answer at the position.
Perhaps there is a reason Alvarez makes you crazy.
DeleteI hate to seem negative, but there are not any positive options at first base. We can limp along with an improved Jared Young, but that doesn't provide the WAR the Mets need from this position. Ty France is exactly the type of deal the Mets always make - buy a free agent coming off a career year and watch him sink back to career norms or worse. Alonso was not extended because of concerns about him regressing with age. The Amick argument that keeps being repeated is pure speculation. The kid has a promising bat, but has only played 76 games at the position in his professional career. Don't make him learn the position on a MLB field while trying to figure out MLB pitching at the same time. If this is a solution, it is more long term.
ReplyDeleteYou are correct
DeleteI am just suggesting the best available WAR option down the road with the current players in the system, unless you convert Soto to first
My initial thought was maybe Manaea for Walker. May have to throw in some money or another player into the deal. (owed 25 versus 20 for the 2027 seasons). The Snakes could use the pitching; the Mets have a need at first. The Snakes have Pavin Smith and others to man first with a developing Tyler Locklear.
ReplyDeleteThe Robert deal was a salary dump by the Chisox and boy did the Mets get dumped on! Agree the Nimmo/Semien deal does not look good at this time. Hoping that when they are both done playing, everything will even in the end. (Are we getting Nimmo at the end of his contract today with the current playing of Semien?)
Clean the books Steve
DeleteLets be realistic guys. Second base will be maned by Semien at least until the ASB. Polanco will be given every chance to be the 1B and if he shows any kind of power, that's where he will be.
ReplyDeleteThe Mets are not about to eat 60+ millions and release these guys without playing them for a couple of months. If they do, Baty and Mauricio should get the first opportunities because that will determine if they will finish the year as Mets players or be gone via trade.
Like it or not, the Mets have 2B, 1B and DH as the only positions they can improve. They also have 46M in Semien and 20M in Polanco. They will play both and hope one or both can show enough to be traded even with the Mets picking up most of the money.
The kids just got to AAA, they need time to mature. No need to rush them until the Semien and Polanco decision is made.
Target 2028
DeleteJules C made the point that the Mets have committed those $'s; the liability has been accrued.. Having kissed away the money, do you want these guys occupying a roster spot - worse, playing..
DeleteMark, a question…if you cut Semien and Polanco now, you’d owe them all of next year’s salary. If there is a strike of 40% of the season, and you’d get a 40% discount by waiting. And their replacements, from among Rojas, Pitre, and Voit, would be much more ready to step in.
DeleteTom- Rojas has to be added to the 40 man so he won’t be playing if there is a strike. Voit and Pitre don’t have to be protected
DeleteMark, indeed there is a reason Alvarez drives me crazy. Many reasons, and roughly the same as those voices within the organization have as well. First, he lacks discipline. He has been given some help with his hitting mechanics and simply cannot stay the course. He is stubborn and far too often has brain farts behind the plate. He is perhaps the worst situational hitter on the team. His approach never varies with circumstances. He calls a poor game overall.
ReplyDeleteI know the advice he has been given in all these areas -- to no avail. I know best the hitting advice he has received. It isn't what I would have suggested but it is credible -- even though it focuses on symptoms, not causes.
He has the worst movement pattern as a hitter on the team. People misdiagnose it all the time as his swinging too hard, but that's not it. He has horrendous kinematic sequencing and transfers virtually no energy from the ground into his core (proximate) and thus never gets it to his distill parts (hands and bat). Thus to generate anything like a reasonable bat speed he has to do two things. First, the engine of his swing are his arms and his upper rib cage, etc. And he has to move them fast from the get go. Moreover because his sequencing is so bad he has to start the swing earlier than he should so he rarely gets a good read on the pitch. His path and upper body rotation leave him vulnerable to two pitches he can't lay off or read: any fastball up in the zone, especially those o the inner half of the plate and in; and any curve or especially slider on the outer half that breaks down and away. His movement makes it impossible for him to cover those pitches.
These are areas I know well and have displayed in videos.
The real frustration; the guy has lots of natural power but simply cannot access it because his mechanics are so poor.
Are his flaws correctable. Yes, and I have been pushing to have him go to a body movement pattern specialist. The Mets have yet to suggest as much. Will he change if he had the right instruction? Who knows, but he has not been responsive to advise or training to this point.
Hope that answers your question.
I assure you I am not alone in these judgments. Others within the organization share my views. And every time I show his swing from several angles to people who teach movement patterns in sports and know more about it than I ever could, they express the same concerns I do, but in a much less circumspect manner -- if that is even possible.
I am in favor of cutting ties with them including looking for trades, etc. If that fails I am in favor of releasing them at the time before the season starts that is most advantageous financially to do so. What I want is for them to no longer be on the roster when the season begins in earnest or in the event the entire season is saved by Spring Training. My thinking may not be convincing but it is clear and straightforward. I don't think we can target 2028 for the start of the Mets being competitive for championships without taking positive steps towards that in 2027. Carrying, let alone playing Semien and Polanco, among others in 2027 imposes substantial opportunity costs that I do not believe the team should incur. The question everyone has to answer for themselves: is which costs do you prefer to pay, not whether you want to avoid the costs of cutting players who you will have to pay. You are going to have to pay them one way or the other. If you pay them and play them, then you incur the costs of paying them, the opportunity costs of not being able to play others who in some important respects -- speed, athleticism, etc -- will perform better than the incumbents would and the costs of not being able to lean into getting a head start on reaching your 2028 goals. I defend the view that I'd rather pay them while releasing them so that I can secure the benefits that would otherwise not be available.
ReplyDeleteHere, here! So well said.
Delete