Tom Brennan - Tasty Tidbits from Wednesday Action

TOM’S TASTY TIDBITS 

Lefties Day at Citi Field did not go especially well.

Southpaws Peterson and Manaea combined for 7 runs allowed.

Mets lose, 7-2. Would Soto’s presence have made a decisive difference? 

Dunno.

Couldn’t have hurt.

Hamate Lindor? Up 78 times in spring training and the regular season…

With no RBIs. Wow. Ahh, maybe it’s just the dimensions and cold weather.

I will say he lost an RBI on Tuesday when Alvarez watched the ball instead of the 3rd base coach. Gotta watch the coach….

….lack of fundamentals can be detrimental!

Benge got a hit in his final AB. YAY! Almost as good as a win, I’d say.

On an encouraging note, JD Martinez told John Flanagan of SNY yesterday: 

“…this team is by far "more talented" than the 2024 squad that went on a miraculous run before falling to the Dodgers in six games in the NLCS.” 

Do you agree?

Minors?

Syracuse lost 2 seven inning games, despite an excellent 5 inning outing from Mr. Jonah Tong (5 innings, one hit, 7 Ks) and a solid outing from Mr. Jack Wenninger. 

Mr. Ryan Clifford as I see it is a 50-50 guy…as in, 20 of his 40 plate appearances have ended in strikeouts. 50%.

My observation from afar…he is taking far too many fat strike ones and twos. Leading to too many strike threes.

Matt Wallner of the Minny Twinnies has the worst strikeout rate in the majors right now, with 25 in 52 PAs (48%). Please note that Clifford’s K rate is worse than that of the worst rate in all of the major leagues. Clifford was traded to the Mets by Houston. Houston, we have a problem.

Moving along, Binghamton (clearly the best of the four minors squads) won two of two. Jon Santucci was not at his sharpest, as he allowed 4 hits and 3 walks, but he fanned 8 in 4 innings. 

Master Wyatt Young slugged a grand slam and doubled in two more for a 6 RBI game from the 9-hole, in an 11-3 win.

Game 2, Mr. Zach Thornton went 5.1 innings of 2 hit, one run, 4 Ks ball. Mr. Ramos and Mr. Ewing (.438) had strong nights, as did Mr. Eli Serrano. 

Mr. Kevin Parada is scarily 1 for 11 in the early moments of 2026. 

Mr. Ben Simon got the win in the finale with a scoreless, 2 K inning. 

Why did HE get the win? 

Simon Says, that’s why.

Brooklyn’s woeful hitting woes persist…15 hits and 59 Ks in 4 games. 

Do 0-4 Brooklyn’s hitters need a mass demotion to St Lucie? Or to the FCL?

By “strikeout comparison”:

HALL of FAMER JOE SEWELL, 100 years ago, fanned 61 times.

- that is, just 61 times over the final TEN YEARS OF HIS CAREER. 

An interesting side point with Sewell. He was a lefty hitter. A short guy. Only had 49 home runs in his entire career. But in his second to last season, he hit 11 of those 49 home runs. He was now playing for the Yankees. The Yankees had that super short porch, 296 feet down the right field line. So what were his season splits? Well, he hit zero home runs on the road, and all 11 home runs at home, in fewer at bats. 

Of course, really smart hitters know how to take advantage of ballpark dimensions. You see, dimensions DO matter.  Smart hitting does, too.

Anyway, he was up 251 times at home that year. I am sure that someone wants to ask, how many times did he strike out at home? 

Once. Just once.

Lastly, St Lucie? 

Both a make up game and another game were postponed. 

Ahh, love the dry season.

A FINAL THOUGHT:

If someone does a daily recap on Japanese minor league baseball, do they call it ASIA MINORS?

Alex Rubinson - Francisco Alvarez has Finally Arrived

Long before Carson Benge, Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong, there was Francisco Álvarez, the Mets top prospect three years ago and a top five prospect in all of baseball. A power-hitting catcher, who could not even drink when he smashed his first big league home run and showcased his 70-grade power stroke. Álvarez was seen as the next great middle of the order bat for the Mets. Even on a team filled with stars, the thought was he would at least be one of the faces of the franchise moving forward. Through 2025, that had not been the case. He played in a combined 176 games between 2024 and 2025. He had never accumulated a two win season. He was still young enough where it was too early to tell the player he would eventually become, but he hadn’t blossomed like fans were hoping for. 

Fast forward to 2026, and the young slugger behind the dish might finally be coming into his own. Álvarez already has three long balls this season, which is over a quarter of his single- season totals from 2024 and 2025 respectively. His 194 OPS+ jumps out, and even if that is not sustainable, there is a reason to believe that his first 11 games are more than just a mirage. 

Among players with at least 25 plate appearances, Álvarez is third in expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA). The only two hitters ahead of him are Ben Rice and Yordan Alvarez. The Mets catcher is tied with Rice for fourth in all of baseball in barrel percentage at 25%.

Álvarez is in the 84th percentile in the early going in both expected batting average and overall batting run value. All of his expected stats are a bright red on his baseball savant page. In addition to his xWOBA and barrel percentage, Álvarez is in the 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage. 

Due to his limited playing time last season, Álvarez did not qualify in these metrics during his 2025 campaign. Having said that, we can still see where he has made drastic improvements under the Mets new hitting philosophy led by Director of Major League Hitting Jeff Albert and Hitting Coach Troy Snitker. Last year, Álvarez's barrel rate was at 12%. In the small sample to begin 2026, that number has more than doubled. His expected batting average a season ago was a mediocre .229 with an xWOBA of .326. This season, his expected average is .291 with an xWOBA just below .475. His expected slugging is over 300 points higher than it was in 2025.  

What is interesting is that Álvarez's hard hit rate and bat speed aren’t drastically different than they were a season ago. It is actually almost impressive that the 24-year-old is putting up these numbers despite average strikeout and walk rates. It shows someone that there is still untapped potential in Álvarez’s skillset even if he improves those numbers marginally. 

The biggest question for the 233 pound catcher will be health. Catchers will never be asked to play on an everyday basis, but if Álvarez can be a reliable athlete that Mendoza can pencil into the starting lineup, that will go a long way to helping lengthen the Mets' offensive firepower. On Opening Day, Álvarez was the nine-hole hitter and has been slated there for most of the season thus far. For David Stearns and Mendoza, it is time to experiment hitting their catcher higher in the order, especially with Juan Soto expected to miss the next few weeks due to a calf injury. Between Soto’s injury and the slow starts by Bo Bichette, Francisco Lindor and Jorge Polanco, New York has been leaning more heavily on Álvarez than they had planned. Luckily, Álvarez has stepped up and been a catalyst for the organization. 

Although defense was never Álvarez’s calling card, it will be fascinating to watch if the catcher can progress behind the dish. In 2025, he was in the 60th percentile caught stealing above average and in the 68th percentile in pop time. With the new ABS challenge system, framing does lose some of its value but can still be important. If Álvarez continues to swing the bat like he has been, the Mets don’t need him to be close to gold glove caliber, but it would be crucial to see if he can at least improve from being in just the 11th percentile in blocking. After all, he has already shown he has not come close to reaching his potential offensively with more room to grow. 

Álvarez broke onto the scene with the weight of Queens on his shoulders. He was expected to perform at a high level right off the bat. These expectations were probably unfair, but as excitement and anticipation has been placed on other younger players, fans and the media have started to overlook the former top prospect. Now, Álvarez is finally coming into his own and reaching his offensive potential. Even if his offensive numbers come back down to earth, it appears he has finally turned the corner and is showing the world what he is made of with all the talent that was always hidden inside of him.

Paul Articulates – No quicksand allowed on the ballfield

The New York Mets have completely re-tooled their lineup this year.  In their efforts to improve run prevention, there had to be some sacrifices, and their power game was the one to go.  There are still some hitters in the lineup with some pop, but this year the team needs to score runs by stringing hits together and aggressively running the bases.  As of last night, the team is seventh in MLB in runs scored with 55 while registering 23rd in baseball in home runs.

With those numbers, one could surmise that the new approach is working.  A seventh-rated scoring offense coupled with improved defense and pitching should be a recipe for success.  This is without much contribution yet from Francisco Lindor (off to his typical slow start) and Juan Soto (out with a calf strain).

Of course, it is early and these numbers could be significantly different in a few months.  At least for now there doesn’t seem to be any need for adjustments.  However, there is more to the game than just the analytics output.  The games I have seen have revealed a flaw that could lead to adverse results.  That flaw is located in the coaching box on the third base line.

My concern is that the base running has lost its aggressiveness that the Mets enjoyed in the 2024 season and into the first half of the 2025 season.  Without aggressive base running, the team needs multiple hits or home runs to score.  We know that the power is lagging from last year, and the team batting average of .248 does not inspire confidence for many multiple hit innings.  So the team has to take advantage of every opportunity on the bases to score.  So far I do not believe that is happening.

Tim Leiper is the new third base coach this season after the Mets let prior 3B coach Mike Sarbaugh go in the major purge last October.  Tim came to the team with a solid coaching resume and has manned both the first and third base lines.  Since he is very familiar with the position, but not necessarily familiar with the speed of the Mets players, he gets an early pass – but the caution flag is up.

I have seen too many instances already of a fleet runner on second base being held at third on a single.  The Mets have above average speed throughout the lineup and in some instances have very fast players.  They should be taking extra bases, scoring from second on most singles, and scoring from first on doubles.   In the second inning Sunday, Francisco Alvarez (not fast) scored without sliding on a Lindor double only because he blatantly ran through Leiper’s stop sign.  

With the Mets’ pitching and defense, the team can put a great deal of pressure on opponents by scoring early.  It is not a prudent strategy to start games with a wait-and-see approach.  We also know that the Mets have traditionally had below average productivity with runners in scoring position.  Once again, this justifies taking on some more risk on the base paths.

I miss Antoan Richardson already.  He had such an aggressive baserunning approach with players both on and off the field that once they got running, Sarbaugh just needed to let them keep going.  Now there appears to be speed bumps along the way that have to be removed.

Consider the young talent in the Mets’ system.  Guys like Benge, Morabito, and Ewing are speedsters that should be brought up in an environment of aggressive base running.  Now is the time to transform the MLB team into an exciting, base-hungry army of hustle players.  Give them the green light – the fans will love it!

RVH - Winning Before It All Comes Together

 

Note: this writeup excludes the 4-3 extra innings win yesterday. (7-4 .636)

Through ten games, the Mets are 6–4 and averaging 4.9 runs per game, a solid early baseline for a club with as many new moving parts as this one. The roster has been reworked, the coaching inputs are new, and several key contributors are still settling into their 2026 roles.

This was always going to take time. And yet, they’re winning anyway. That’s the story of the first ten games.

The rotation has done what good rotations do early — keep games under control. Not dominant every night, but steady, reliable, and long enough to avoid early chaos.

Starting Rotation

Starter	G	IP	H	BB	K	ER	WHIP	ERA	K/9	P/O	OPS
Clay Holmes	2	12.2	7	5	9	2	0.95	1.42	6.39	5.29	.471
Nolan McLean	2	10.1	5	4	12	3	0.87	2.61	10.45	5.71	.403
Kodai Senga	2	11.2	9	5	16	4	1.20	3.09	12.34	5.15	.561
Freddy Peralta	2	10.1	9	2	14	5	1.06	4.35	12.20	5.54	.532
David Peterson	2	9.2	15	4	8	5	1.96	4.66	7.45	4.99	.804
Total	10	54.2	45	20	59	19	1.19	3.13	9.71	5.20	.551

They’re not chasing games. They’re playing them.

Behind them, the bullpen already looks like a unit with shape. The leverage group has been clean and dependable, and when the Mets get a lead late, it feels like a lead that’s going to hold.

It’s not perfect — but the important parts are already in place.

Run Prevention — Where Games Are Being Controlled

Group	IP	ER	ERA	WHIP	K	Role
Starters	54.2	19	3.13	1.19	59	Game stability, length
Leverage Relief	22.2	1	0.40	0.71	21	Late-game, control under prossure
Support Relief	12.0	5	3.75	2.08	12	Middle innings coverage
Total Bullpen	34.2	6	1.56	1.18	33	Aggregate relief performance

The Mets are getting what they need where it matters most — stability from the rotation and near-lockdown performance at the back end — even as the middle innings remain uneven.

Offensively, it hasn’t all come together — but it hasn’t needed to.

The core is doing the heavy lifting.

Lineup — Core

Player	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	AVG	OBP	OPS
Mark Vientos	7	21	5	10	1	4	2	.476	.522	1.236
Francisco Alvarez	9	24	5	7	3	3	2	.292	.370	1.079
Juan Soto	10	31	5	11	1	5	4	.355	.432	.928
Luis Robert Jr.	10	31	6	10	1	6	3	.323	.382	.894
Francisco Lindor	10	37	7	5	0	0	10	.135	.333	.577
Bo Bichette	10	45	4	9	0	6	2	.200	.229	.473
Subtotal	56	189	32	52	6	24	23	.275	.354	.793

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Lineup — Support

Player	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	AVG	OBP	OPS
Jared Young	7	13	2	5	0	1	2	.385	.467	1.005
Marcus Semien	10	35	2	9	1	6	4	.257	.341	.741
Luis Torrens	5	12	2	4	0	4	0	.333	.333	.750
Brett Baty	8	33	6	8	0	4	0	.242	.242	.606
Tyrone Taylor	8	13	2	2	1	4	0	.154	.154	.539
Carson Benge	9	30	3	3	1	3	4	.100	.206	.406
Subtotal	47	136	17	31	3	22	10	.228	.281	.685

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Early Production Split — Who’s Carrying the Offense

Group	Runs	Hits	HR	RBI	Avg	OBP	OPS
Core Lineup	32	52	6	24	.275	.354	.793
Support Lineup	17	31	3	22	.228	.281	.685
Team Total	49	83	9	46	.255	.324	.748

The core is carrying the load early, while the support tier is contributing just enough to keep the lineup functional.

This is not a complete team yet. Lindor and Bichette haven’t hit their levels. Benge is still searching. García has run into traffic. The support layer is uneven.

But none of it is cascading into chaos. Because enough is working. That’s what stands out.

They’re getting stability from the rotation, reliability at the back end, and impact from the top of the lineup. It’s not all there — but it doesn’t need to be. Not yet...

Good teams don’t wait to come together before they start winning. They win while it’s still forming — and let the rest catch up. The Mets are doing that now. If this is what it looks like before it really clicks, that’s the story.