tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post4442383364920330306..comments2024-03-28T17:57:21.603-04:00Comments on Mack's Mets: Dominic Smith: Future Star or Potential Bust?Mack Adehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09730548449011685243noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-19096130558246508612015-07-17T16:10:36.089-04:002015-07-17T16:10:36.089-04:00Before you get too giddy about Dominic Smith, take...Before you get too giddy about Dominic Smith, take a look at his stats at the same age when compared to Milner, Fernando Martinez and Lastings Milledge. Note the OBP and slugging percentage. Remember that Smith was paid $1.3 million as a bonus and a team usually hopes a guy rises faster through the system when paid that kind of moolah. Alderson's history with first rounders at San Diego wasn't all that great. Didn't he amass quite a few with none being top players? Here's a comparison of Smith to the other players during their minor league years:<br /><br />http://img266.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=53791_smith_comparison_122_542lo.jpg1973 Metsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-29305794209608872152015-07-17T11:49:39.256-04:002015-07-17T11:49:39.256-04:00Neither one is a surprise actuslly. Duda picks bal...Neither one is a surprise actuslly. Duda picks balls that don't need to be picked whereas as other 1B actually stretch and catch on a fly. <br /><br />Stats are important, but I'm a big eye test guy since just because he picks the ball doesn't mean it needed to be picked. To me, his scoop rate "appears" to be closer to 20% on the real in between throws but balls that he doesn't stretch for and end up bouncing need his feet that he simple bends down to one hop don't count. <br /><br />I played SS through college and coached high school baseball, so I'm paying my attention to the specifics and while those stats don't surprise me, Duda's eye test fails for me for sure. <br /><br />You can deal with it if he's the Duda from last year, but the Duda from the last 6 weeks starts to show his all around warts even more and when you watch guys like Tex, Olerud, Loney and even Keith, you can see where a solid defensive 1B makes a huge difference on your infield defense and my hopes are the Smith becomes that guy down the road. The Closerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156575344175387314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-71902222182797134152015-07-17T09:59:25.748-04:002015-07-17T09:59:25.748-04:00Dom Smith reminds me of eric hosmer. A high avera...Dom Smith reminds me of eric hosmer. A high average, teens hr guy who in prime years will hit in the 20s and play great d. He is only 20. Just for reference miguel cabrera hit 9 hr in the Florida St league in basically 130 games. and smith is at 4 in 80.Robbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06166843922861649296noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-66529947461889018272015-07-17T07:09:00.249-04:002015-07-17T07:09:00.249-04:00Speaking of Keith, Keith Hernandez made 11 errors ...Speaking of Keith, Keith Hernandez made 11 errors at 1B in 82 minor league games at 1B when he was 20 (actually, he played that season 8 months older than Smith is playing this one). He turned out all right. Smith will be great with the glove, IMO,A hopefully another Keith Hernandez.<br /><br />Now there is a comp for you...maybe Smith is the next Keith - both offensively and defensively? Why not? I'd take that :)Tom Brennanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01032383157195393857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-63431094372245963222015-07-16T22:51:57.849-04:002015-07-16T22:51:57.849-04:00Closer,
Would you be surprised if I told you tha...Closer, <br /><br />Would you be surprised if I told you that Lucas Duda has dealt with over 20% more bad throws from his infielders than the next highest 1B but has converted 79% of those "scoop" chances, a mark that is better than league average? <br /><br />Stephen Guilberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09580612873273740610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-87211191985993391092015-07-16T22:39:06.819-04:002015-07-16T22:39:06.819-04:00Btw, I know we talk of Dom Smith being an elite de...Btw, I know we talk of Dom Smith being an elite defender but he made his 9th error of the season, which is quite a bit for a 1B. I can't fall if they are predominantly throwing or fielding, but I've heard a lot of great things in regard to his defense, so I'm a bit surprised. <br /><br />The comp I've always seen with Dom Smith was James Loney, but I'm hoping to see .275/20/80, with some actual error saving defense from our infielders at 1B vs what we see from Duda on a regular basis. <br /><br />Duda is pretty rough to watch trying to pick a ball, stretch for a throw of even tag the runner on a pick off. Don't we have one of the best fielding 1B in the history of baseball in the press box. Remember when Keith was getting a lot of credit for Duda's hitting and then all of a sudden he forgot how to hit for 6 + weeks?! Maybe they should have had a different conversation surrounding defense instead since that talk didn't work. The Closerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11156575344175387314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-8407176390943573032015-07-16T19:58:47.126-04:002015-07-16T19:58:47.126-04:00Cyclones on TV SNY), BTW. Blackham looks great. S...Cyclones on TV SNY), BTW. Blackham looks great. Six Ks in first 3 innings, 36 in 26 innings so far this year. 94 MPH heater.Tom Brennanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01032383157195393857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-52790501668192994902015-07-16T19:54:55.101-04:002015-07-16T19:54:55.101-04:00Boy, Ernest, that is great to hear about Rosario. ...Boy, Ernest, that is great to hear about Rosario. Certainly sou 's like he'll have a real shot at being the Mets SS for many years starting perhaps around m7d 2017 or early 2018.Tom Brennanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01032383157195393857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-63638929923892474492015-07-16T18:32:23.781-04:002015-07-16T18:32:23.781-04:00Rosario is in NO WAY a Wilmer Flores here.
He'...Rosario is in NO WAY a Wilmer Flores here. <br />He's still thin. He's also still FAST, not only in the field but in general. If he was getting on base more in lucie he woulf probably easily get 30 stolen bases. And more than that, he can go first to third and 2nd to home. <br />Before I got to see him LIVE, I looked at 'stats' and worried about his errors. Then I saw him in action. <br />He gets to everything. He has a Wilmer type arm but its accurate. I watched oberste kinda botch an easy double play, but Rosario was so damn quick and strong arm that they still almost turned it anyway.<br />I know the guys announcing the future stars game were getting their jollys talking about mondesi jr. Im sure he's wonderful.<br />But I've been saying same thjng on this site since first seeing Rosario LIVE...... I consider Rosario just as untouchable in trade as thor, matz and Conforto. TThey're all obviously different in many ways, but I'd take my chances on waiting 2-3 years with Rosario and trade off the younger kid SS prospects as needes right now.<br /><br />I mean, would u trade a 19 yr old anderlton simmons ?Ernest Dovehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12054861033443392454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-16805234437669959912015-07-16T18:08:33.676-04:002015-07-16T18:08:33.676-04:00That's a good point, Thomas. I chose Adrian Go...That's a good point, Thomas. I chose Adrian Gonzalez as a comp because of the swing, defense and their similar backgrounds. I thought about Ike Davis, Duda and Loney as comparisons as well and all of them are worth looking at to understand Smith in context. Great point about Duda, though. Power takes time to develop. <br /><br />I'm excited about Smith. Like I said, given choice between bust or star I'd take star 100% of the time. Stephen Guilberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09580612873273740610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-8872489921796680872015-07-16T18:04:36.719-04:002015-07-16T18:04:36.719-04:00Duda had zero minor league homers at age 20, as he...Duda had zero minor league homers at age 20, as he started in the minors at 21. Hit just one every 50 ABs his first 3 years while skipping Savannah. Smith will be a star.Tom Brennanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01032383157195393857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-3068383666423619732015-07-16T18:00:15.166-04:002015-07-16T18:00:15.166-04:00Can't wait for Dom Smith to be our guy on the ...Can't wait for Dom Smith to be our guy on the big club. Going to be fun to watch a pure hitter that a team won't be able to over shift on. <br /><br />Don't extend DudaBob Sugarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16509462696614464970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-23889498004864750282015-07-16T17:51:31.685-04:002015-07-16T17:51:31.685-04:00I could always just wait until your post tomorrow ...I could always just wait until your post tomorrow but I'm wondering your take on Rosario's defensive ability in relation to other top/fringe top prospects. Keith Law just said Rosario isn't as good defensively as Raul Mondesi Jr. and I disagree with him. Has Rosario slowed down at all as he's gotten bigger? When I saw him at ST he looked ridiculously smooth in the field. Stephen Guilberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09580612873273740610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-47777952419222026842015-07-16T17:32:25.455-04:002015-07-16T17:32:25.455-04:00Dom never would have to worry about scooping balls...Dom never would have to worry about scooping balls out of dirt from Rosario ;)<br />Rosario has too strong an arm and too much range to ever be far enough away from a ball for that to happen lol.Ernest Dovehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12054861033443392454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-42167814722848082882015-07-16T17:26:40.309-04:002015-07-16T17:26:40.309-04:00If I were doing a Mets prospect ranking I'd ha...If I were doing a Mets prospect ranking I'd have him right next to Amed Rosario and for the same reasons...both could be all stars for years in the big leagues but both really have to figure some stuff out at the plate before that happens. Stephen Guilberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09580612873273740610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-68310430899077553912015-07-16T17:23:36.086-04:002015-07-16T17:23:36.086-04:00Not all prospects pan out.......... I think he wil...Not all prospects pan out.......... I think he will pan out........<br />I wrote about my local (ish) st Lucie Mets again that will post tomorrow. I brought up Dom again.<br /><br />My eyeball test gives same result. He'll hit in the mlb. He'll play D and scoop bad throws in the dirt in the mlb. God knows whether he hits 10 or 30 homers. But he'll contribute on a team in a positive way and hit middle of the order.Ernest Dovehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12054861033443392454noreply@blogger.com