tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post6965561283386465436..comments2024-03-29T11:07:52.963-04:00Comments on Mack's Mets: The Morning Report – 1-5 – San Diego, Xorge Carillo, Matt Reynolds, Stuart ScottMack Adehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09730548449011685243noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-47083955879855020052015-01-05T16:01:52.997-05:002015-01-05T16:01:52.997-05:00Mets re-sign Buddy Carlyle.
Minor league contract...Mets re-sign Buddy Carlyle.<br /><br />Minor league contract with an invite to camp.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-31375812860447627592015-01-05T15:22:34.182-05:002015-01-05T15:22:34.182-05:00Just announced today that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wi...Just announced today that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be eligible to sign with MLB teams starting July 2nd via the international signing rules. Mets are apparently very interested and scouts say he could be better than his father and speed through the minors and debut in the MLB before age 20.<br /><br />At this point I'm rooting for Moncada NOT to gain OFCA clearance until late June that way the Mets can blow through their international allotment and sign both of these guys.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-49682556703079912272015-01-05T12:30:39.068-05:002015-01-05T12:30:39.068-05:00I agree on Tejada as a useful backup. However, I d...I agree on Tejada as a useful backup. However, I don't trust the organization to keep him in that optimal role. <br /><br />Blame who you want -- I see it as Terry/Sandy both -- but Tejada played far too much last season to the point where today, we still have close to no idea if Flores can actually play adequate SS or not (we know it won't be good, the question is only: "How bad?).James Prellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01342728812342563278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-42840229501735518012015-01-05T12:15:36.100-05:002015-01-05T12:15:36.100-05:00I agree 100% eraff - Tejada is a good BACK-UP midd...I agree 100% eraff - Tejada is a good BACK-UP middle infielder.<br /><br />Who knows - maybe losing his job will help motivate him to work harder and get better. <br /><br />I need to see Reynolds show more at AAA this year before I would deem him much of an upgrade<br /><br />Let's not forget that as a 19 year old - Tejada put up a .719 OPS in AA with a .319 BABIP and a 2.57 K/BB rate<br /><br />He also .685 OPS as a 21 year old in MLB in 91 games.<br /><br />As a 21 year old, Reynolds put up a .675 OPS in Savannah. <br /><br />Yes - I hope Reynolds leaps past Tejada, but he hasn't shown enough yet. <br /><br />As far as Tovar - he likely would have had a better shot last year if he didn't miss time early last year <br /><br />Last year was his best offensive season - he will likely start at AAA to see if he can come close to replicating his numbers from last year.<br /><br />But, keep this in mind - in 255 ABs, he had a whopping 11 extra base hits - in his last full season in AA, Tejada had 32 XBH's in 553 AB's - so Tovar is even more of a singles hitter than our good buddy Reuben.<br /><br />That being said - I admit that Tovar is a much, much, much better fielder. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05107443295708283998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-72848318527798663852015-01-05T11:44:56.090-05:002015-01-05T11:44:56.090-05:00.417 BABIP without High ISO is a Unicorn!!!...it&#....417 BABIP without High ISO is a Unicorn!!!...it's a Freak.<br /><br />For everyone so down on Tejada--- I suggest this is a matter of fact that he's not a Starting MLB SS...at least not a high quality starter. He also lacks significant "tools" that make you feel upside...however, he's an actual, legitimate MLB middle infielder, and a more than capable SS.<br /><br />I don't think you can watch MLB at any significant depth and suggest that a hopeful pennant contender just hand over a bench slot to guys like Tovar and Reynolds when you have an actual professional ballplayer in Tejada.<br /><br />As it stands, he's a very capable MIF back up.... <br /><br />...Flames?<br /><br />eraffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06493607580550078769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-70334579045811623712015-01-05T11:12:08.138-05:002015-01-05T11:12:08.138-05:00Tom - My hopes are the same as yours - my rose col...Tom - My hopes are the same as yours - my rose colored glasses are a little dirtier than yours though! ;-)<br /><br />I think Reynolds will be solid, but I fully expect a regression to the .280ish range with decent gap power - which would be an awesome back-up infielder, future utility player.<br /><br />It would be nice to be able to have a guy on the bench who doesn't give us a large offensive drop off.<br /><br />This front office pays very close attention to BABIP - which is why I think Carillo was promoted like he was, and why Reynolds was promoted after a bad year in A-ball - they both had unreasonably low BABIP back then.<br /><br />Now, Reynolds is going to be sent back to AAA to see what happens when his BABIP normalizes a bit - even with a lot of line-drives, I see about .75 points coming off his BABIP next year. <br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05107443295708283998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-39336317849273108602015-01-05T11:07:18.261-05:002015-01-05T11:07:18.261-05:00Lew, my guess is Reynolds must hit lots of liners....Lew, my guess is Reynolds must hit lots of liners. he also works the field, so if you spread guys out, more hard hit balls will fall. <br /><br />His 2014 BABIP is quite high, but he also jumped 2 levels last year, and hit great in both. So I do not see 2014 being a freak year - I think 2015 will be fine for him too, as a much more experienced guy in AAA to start out.Tom Brennanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01032383157195393857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-38462531043805102412015-01-05T10:33:40.106-05:002015-01-05T10:33:40.106-05:00Carillo is an interesting prospect and the opposit...Carillo is an interesting prospect and the opposite of Reynolds to a degree. <br /><br />Carillo's BABIP in Brooklyn was .225 and in Savannah it was .167 - both are ridiculously low, unless he was hitting all weak grounders. <br /><br />Now, the last two years in Binghamtom his BABIP was .360 and .327 -- much more around average. <br /><br />His OPS those two years was .691 and .670 -- not shabby for a back-up catcher. <br /><br />This was a kid who put up really solid numbers in college, so hopefully the last two years are more indicative of his talent.<br /><br />His winter numbers are definitely eye opening. <br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05107443295708283998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-69590947587720953722015-01-05T10:32:01.007-05:002015-01-05T10:32:01.007-05:00I saw Carrillo in AA and he actually stood out to ...I saw Carrillo in AA and he actually stood out to me. But then everybody looks good when they hit a screaming double down the line. It's impossible for the ordinary fan to tell when it comes to backup catcher, so many of the important job requirements occur behind closed doors.<br /><br />Given the nature of the job, I actually think Recker has been okay. Love the pop. Wish he could get the BA up to .240 or so, which seems possible. Appears to be a solid guy, smart, well-spoken, good relationships with pitchers, accepts the role, etc. <br /><br />Who knows!James Prellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01342728812342563278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-13444139790213753322015-01-05T10:25:41.436-05:002015-01-05T10:25:41.436-05:00eraff - I said the same thing about Reynolds a cou...eraff - I said the same thing about Reynolds a couple of weeks ago.<br /><br />I think he could be okay, but his 2014 was highly BABIP fueled - this is especially when you look at his AA numbers - his BABIP was .433, but his ISO was a paltry .066 -- you expect a higher BABIP when you are hitting a lot of balls over the wall.<br /><br />Generally, a high BABIP and a low ISO means a guy would got lucky a lot. <br /><br />The one other stat that can impact BABIP is line drive percentage - obviously, hard line-drives are more often hits than weak grounds. <br /><br />So a high slugging or high LD% can give a higher BABIP. <br /><br />Unfortunately, it is hard to find LD% numbers for the minors - maybe Reynolds hit nothing but frozen rope line drives and that supported his high BABIP <br /><br />That's why I want to see another year before we give assume he will be the next big thing<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05107443295708283998noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-3174839637021920692015-01-05T10:25:28.813-05:002015-01-05T10:25:28.813-05:00A Flores/Tovar in late innings combo would have be...A Flores/Tovar in late innings combo would have beena good alternativeMack Adehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09730548449011685243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-30400486813926622682015-01-05T10:23:22.850-05:002015-01-05T10:23:22.850-05:00eraff/James -
It's easier for me sometimes j...eraff/James - <br /><br />It's easier for me sometimes just to cut and paste and show you the stuff Iget to readMack Adehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09730548449011685243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-14673305125256612112015-01-05T10:22:05.427-05:002015-01-05T10:22:05.427-05:00Thomas -
I don't know that much about Carril...Thomas - <br /><br />I don't know that much about Carrillo and I look forward to seeing moreMack Adehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09730548449011685243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-90100155002373666982015-01-05T10:19:29.870-05:002015-01-05T10:19:29.870-05:00Wilfredo Tovar is on the 40-man roster, has had a ...Wilfredo Tovar is on the 40-man roster, has had a couple of cups of coffee in the majors and his glove has been described as "special". He also stands to earn 1/4 of what Tejada will make...which is puzzling to me why they didn't send him packing alongside Young, Jr. He's hit .270, .263 and .288 his last three years in the minors -- that's Tejada territory offensively (and he can run a bit, too).Reese Kaplanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12993445356545875409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-65130197310478947392015-01-05T10:12:11.114-05:002015-01-05T10:12:11.114-05:00Bizarre that the writer Mack quoted would say that...Bizarre that the writer Mack quoted would say that Reynolds would not make the club as a utility guy because of lack of power . . . when Ruben Tejada is the guy ahead of him on Sandy's depth chart.<br /><br />To me, if Flores starts at SS, it's essential that the Mets carry a strong-fielding backup SS on the roster (which is a downside to going with Flores at SS rather than, say, at 2B). From what I understand, Reynolds is not great with the glove either, and therefore not a great fit right now. Tejada is better in that role, unfortunately, since Sandy has left us many choices. Given Terry Collins is the manager, the presence of Ruben Tejada on the bench scares me silly; I'd prefer he were banished and some other improvement brought into the fold.James Prellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01342728812342563278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-37477534259282909892015-01-05T10:11:31.588-05:002015-01-05T10:11:31.588-05:00We see how the Mets value catchers who hit in the ...We see how the Mets value catchers who hit in the .280s -- where have you gone, Juan Centeño? I guess it helps to have the draft pedigree and implicit saving-face pressure) of being a supplemental pick like Plawecki. I'm not saying either Centeño or Carillo would be better than Plawecki, but it's always interesting to see how conspicuous draft picks get a whole lot more leeway than do ones chosen later. Reese Kaplanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12993445356545875409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-65567445276525882812015-01-05T10:03:49.811-05:002015-01-05T10:03:49.811-05:00Reynolds BABIP
http://astromets.blogspot.com/2014...Reynolds BABIP<br /><br />http://astromets.blogspot.com/2014/09/matt-reynolds-2014-season-and-babip.htmleraffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06493607580550078769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-37195390019026105852015-01-05T10:03:24.790-05:002015-01-05T10:03:24.790-05:00Reynolds Batting Average on Balls in play was an ...Reynolds Batting Average on Balls in play was an absurd .417 combined!!!...<br /><br />The MLB average is around 300....Great Hitters do better, not to mention that they make contact---Godd Contact-- MNore frequently.<br /><br />I'm not a Saber Guy, exclusively...but the Production Level Stats become important at the higher MILB levels (of course at the MLB Levels too!). <br /><br />If you take ONLY 75 points off that BABIP you get to some "normal sorts of numbers.... a .350 BABIP would place him at mid .700 ops...hey, still a nice result, m But it's based on a Still High (.350( BABIP.<br /><br />This guy is not yet an assumed plug and play ready fort MLB player/<br /><br />eraffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06493607580550078769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-592615130369356022.post-28087165616866110532015-01-05T09:19:27.633-05:002015-01-05T09:19:27.633-05:00Morning, Mack.
Xorge Carillo is interesting in th...Morning, Mack.<br /><br />Xorge Carillo is interesting in that he has gotten few regular season at bats, in 2013 and 2014 by being behind Forsythe and then Plawecki.<br /><br />He has supplemented that with a lot of winter season ball. Highly encouraging in his 185 at bats this winter were 19 doubles, 8 homers, and a slug % of over .500. Wow. <br /><br />I would not be completely surprised to see him be the Mets' 2015 back up, but more likely he'll start in AA if Plawecki is in AAA, or in AAA IF Plawecki makes the Mets out of spring training.<br /><br />So many writers look at full season #s. Reynolds hit 8 or 9 homers in his at bats from late July thru off season ball, the equivalent of less than half a season. He'll hit enough long balls in the future, to go with a .300 average. Still undervalued. Tom Brennanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01032383157195393857noreply@blogger.com