The interesting thing about the Mets right now is the carousel of unknown players entering and exiting as the team uses the remainder of August and September to get to know who may or may not be a part of the team’s future. Many decisions will need to be made between now and the start of 2027 baseball (if a strike allows the season to take place).
The first big decision, of course, is outfielder Luis Robert. When he’s good he’s a stellar defender, decent speed, home run power and dynamic player on the field and at the plate. The problem is that he is not healthy most of the time and is slated to earn $20 million next season for below Mendoza line hitting and more time on the IL than on the field.
Keeping Luis Robert in 2027 is indeed expensive but the Mets do have a $2 million buyout option they could choose to exercise. The $18 million savings could be put into addressing other team needs and the club could go into the season with the outfield of Juan Soto, A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge as they have for many games this year.
The three expensive pitchers returning are going to be very difficult to trade away without paydown of their salaries or accompanying them with some prime minor league talent. This tris includes starter Sean Manaea, closer Devin Williams and apparently now reliever Kodai Senga. In order they earn $25 million, $13.7 million (most deferred and counting as $5 million against payroll), and $15 million respectively. There’s no way to justify Manaea’s paycheck. Williams is more appropriate and if he can rediscover his Milwaukee self he’s a relative bargain at that price. Senga is a challenging one. If he is a short reliever in a setup role he’s overpriced. If he’s a starter he’s acceptably priced if the good Senga emerges once again.
Rumors started that Bichette wants to return to the Mets and expects them to be significantly better next season. That’s good news and bad news. If he returns to his career norms then he is an expensive but high quality hitter with defensive challenges. The Mets most definitely need bats, so having him back is not a bat thing at all.
At second base, however, the Mets need to make a decision. Can they restructure Semien’s deal to keep him around as a backup and veteran presence or will they again trot him out every day with a few straight years of poor performance as the regular second baseman? If the utility role evolves then they likely need to look outside the organization unless they feel Ronny Mauricio is finally going to be healthy and productive. Obviously Brett Baty is not the answer at second base.
First base continues to be a lost cause. Jorge Polanco could play there if healthy, but that if comes with an awful lot of hesitation. He’s not hitting at all and the health issues continue, but at his pay rate he’s going to be back again unless they pay down 25 to 30% of his salary in a trade. Even if they did that no one emerges as a quality starter.
However, the real issue for this team is going to be its bullpen. Assuming Williams is back and Senga remains, there is not a whole lot else there worth trotting out to the mound to hold leads. Dedniel Nunez is a healing work in progress but beyond him it’s a bunch of pitchers with ill health or limited experience. Expect some new faces to arrive.
Right now the 2027 roster is not fully known and its potential for success is going to depend as much on health and productivity as it is on the yet unnamed manager who will lead them.
"Afternoon"Reese
ReplyDeletePulling an all-nighter here writing a eulogy I will be delivering next Wednesday in Little Neck, where Steve Cohen was born and raised.
Reading this is a good break from that.
Me? If I was the GM?
I would exercise the option on Robert Jr. It didn't work, it won't work in 2027, and yes, the money saved could be spent much more wisely.
As for Bichette, I'm being told he loves being a Met. I don't think I would have to make a decision here. HE will and he will stay a Met in 2027
The answer at 2B could well be Mitch Voit. Get him to AAA. Get him to Arizona. Lots of at bats left. Then get him to the Mets in early 2027.
ReplyDeleteRobert? I am not confident, but I am willing to see him get some runway to see if they can trade him later. My guess is he’s gone. But Morabito has slumped, and you need a viable outfield replacement. Pache is not it.
You are stuck with Manaea’s contract until the trade deadline. Senga has his audition period. Andrew Miller and Brad Hand went from crap starters to stellar relievers. He should seek to do the same.
They're stuck with a roster full of over-priced veterans. LRJ is a no-brainer to cut ties with IMO. They might get some further use from Manaea. Senga, Polanco and Semien are sunk costs. No one will take on those contracts. The best the Mets can hope for is a partial or total loss of the 2027 season that gets them out of all but one year of Semien without costing them any money. I'm as encouraged as anyone with the advancement of the five rookies. That enthusiasm is tempered somewhat by the memories of the 1995 season, and the big second half surge lead by Pulse and Izzy. Both came up lame in 1996 and the team sank again in the standings. Health will be the key for next year, so baby those arms!
ReplyDeleteSemien is 13 for his last 50, with 5 HRs, so maybe he will play better with a healthy hip.
DeleteI can see keeping LRJ if and only if they restructure his deal so that wkth his 2 million pay out he makes something like 8-10 total. If that’s the case bring him back and have him split time with soto between left field and DH and spelling Benge/ewing kf they need a day.
ReplyDeleteI think we’ll find our 2B replacement internally, maybe Voit, maybe one of the other prospects we just acquired.
Manaea has been decent. Overpaid for what he’s giving but he really turned his season around. Fine for a back end starter until someone pushes him out.
You have mclean, scott and thorton as your controllable starters with a few more fighting to get to the bigs.
Looking towards next year… i need to find one big bat. Probably to play at first base. Need 2 reliable relievers, one has to be high leverage. We could use 1 more starting pitcher but i either want to go big game hunting for skubal (i can dream) or value side 1 year contract like canning griffin in 2025. Dont want to block up a rotation spot or any position unless the player is a difference maker.
Not sure how the mets are going to bring in a bat/ handle first. Super shallow FA class
Dan, I doubt the MLBPA would permit a pay cut, so it isn’t on Robert. But, would you forego $10,000,000.00 to stay playing for the Mets?
DeleteGus, $10 million for one year might be Robert’s going rate in 2027. That is about what Motor Scooter Bader was getting paid, right?
DeleteMove on from high paid veterans and push the youth movement. Did anyone think Ewing would adjust this quickly? Thornton? You have to give guys a shot to see what they are made of. We saw what the acquisitions like Semien and Polanco are made of. Don't need any more of that.
ReplyDeleteThe LR JR experiment hopefully will be over by next year.
ReplyDeleteIf Semien hits us 20 homers this year I don’t think it’s a failed season for him. You may be able to trade him and payoff 5mil of his contract? Voit had been killing it this year!!!
Hopefully they can sign Skubal?
Hopefully Manaea keeps pitching the way he has been and can get out from under his contract with some money being sent as well?
Also, I believe we’re gonna be in a Strike season next year so none of these big contracts will be paid fully.
Also, I hope we don’t bring up any more promising rookies this year because if there is a strike What we lose eligibility time for them
You’ll need to pay more than 5 million but i’d be fine with paying off half of his contract to move him. I think we need to open the spot for one of our young guys.
DeleteIt would be nice for Semien to finish strong and be an appealing trade candidate. Hopefully, one of Voit or Rojas will mature next year.
ReplyDeleteSemien, if he continues to play better, could be stopgap 2B until Voit/other prospect is ready later in 2027. The. Shift to expensive utility.
ReplyDeleteManaea is likely #5 starter if he continues to perform at current level - he will likely be pushed out by emerging rookie later in ‘27
Would be amazing if Senga can become leverage reliever
LRJ will be released. I’d sign Taylor back as RH fourth OF
1B is the problem. I’d look for as close to Keith Hernandez type player as possible: defense, contact, as much power as possible. There are more MiLB prospects that could emerge: Reimer, Collins, Larusso, morel (who should get called up asap), unless someone like Pete becomes available, I think they can manage.
Need an established #1 starter, two high leverage relievers & this is a competitive team going into ‘27.
Agreed with this. 1B is going to be the spot that’s harder to fill for next year. Tough FA class. Both of the next 2 years are rough for 1B. Starting pitching as well. There’s nobody id sign after Skubal, king or alcantra this year. The FA class after this doesn’t have any starting pitchers id take over our expanding home grown crop.
DeleteJared Young has put up good starter quality 1B numbers over what is effectively 1/3 of a season. Why not see what he does over the final third? Maybe he can start out as the everyday 2027 1B until Reimer or Collins or someone else not named Clifford can take over. He has an advantage…he is CHEAP.
DeleteI've got a post coming out on Tuesday as part of the series I started a couple of months ago predicting the Mets OD 2027 roster. So I don't want to give too much of it away -- but there will be plenty of disagreement I am sure. But I can share some of my views here. LR is gone. He becomes free agent with 2m buyout. We are as free as anyone to see what he gets as FA, but Taylor will also be FA so can see what we think of him relative to what market does as well. I envision Morabito as a trade piece for a pitcher. We need two vet pitchers next year only one of which can we afford as a FA with a QO, so that is why I think we need one in trade. Also Manaea will stick around at least till trade deadline and whenever he leaves that is what opens up the need for a 2nd SP, most likely through a trade.
ReplyDeleteI think 1B is less of a problem than others do. Here's why. I think we platoon and sign Goldschmidt as RH 1B. He is still an above average fielder, mashes lefties and provides some power and leadership. LH first baseman baseline would be Young who has been credible and versatile and a plus guy in the clubhouse and a good story. I would like to get Voit in the lineup as soon as that makes sense, but don't you want to see how responds to possible adversity before he gets to majors. If he doesn't experience adversity at all this year or early part of next, he can be brought up as early as May or June or 1st injury to middle infielder. My other backup INF or potential LH bat at 1B is Mauricio. He should be used primarily as LH bat.
Polanco should go on IL for all of September, and DH slot should be split between Alvarez and Mauricio.
Polanco should be saved for next year, and we can judge pretty quickly what he has left.
Semien is ending season more in line with the average expectations of his performance. He was never worth 30m/yr at this point, but that's what we took on. If he hits .230 with 20HRs and solid defense, that is what we bought. He will be pushed out by Voit, but no need to throw him out until Voit is ready. Also Semien will finish the season with the Mets because he is a veteran presence and as good a utility INF as we could hope to have at this point.
So for me, we are looking at offloading some part of some contracts: a couple of months of Manaea perhaps and a year of Semien. Bichette was never going to opt out this year, but is almost certain to after next year.