THIS CROW FLEW THE COOP, AND DECLARED “WAR”
Pete Crow Armstrong this season had 7.5 WAR through game 119.
Extrapolate that over 162 games? 10.2 WAR.
The Mets traded him for a pipe dream.
In Juan Soto’s best WAR year (Yanks in 2024), he had “just” 8 WAR.
Crow might well win the NL MVP this year. The Mets have never had one.
- Can we PLEASE have a do-over?
Here are seven player moves that come to mind, that had me screaming, for good reason:
Can we have a do-over?
I WANNA DO-OVER!
Jeff Kent?
He won an MVP, and was in the top 10 of MVP voting in several other years, all after the Mets traded him. And made the Hall of Fame.
Kevin Mitchell?
He, after the Mets traded him, won an MVP.
Amos Otis?
He finished between 3rd and 8th in MVP voting in 4 post-Mets seasons.
Nolan Ryan?
He won 295 games and fanned over 5,000 batters post-Mets. Hall of Fame, too.
The Irish Hammer Daniel Murphy?
He was allowed by the Mets to walk after a monumental late-season 2015. He came in 2nd in the MVP voting for the Nats in 2016. 2017 was brilliant, too. 90 doubles, 48 HRs, 197 RBIs in those those first two Nats seasons, where he averaged .335 in an average of 143 games. ARRGGH!
Jeff Reardon?
He saved all of 10 games as a Met, then moved on and saved a mere 357 more.
Tom Seaver?
Remember him? He was traded to Cincinnati, where he went a mere 70-32 in his first 5-seasons there.
READY FOR MORE PAIN?
I just came across a doubly jaw-dropping tidbit from a July article by Max Ralph, posted on MLB.com, on the Crow/Baez trade:
Zack Scott, the acting general manager of the Mets at the time of the trade, joined the Break It Down Show this week and went in-depth on the move that sent Crow-Armstrong to Chicago.
“When you look back, it’s easy to say that was a bad trade long term, And I’d say this, at the time, it’s certainly not a deal you feel good about doing long term.”
Scott revealed that PCA wasn’t even the player the Cubs originally targeted in that trade.
He said they wanted right-handed pitcher Matt Allan, a 2019 third-round pick who was MLB Pipeline’s No. 3 Mets prospect in 2021 but is no longer in affiliated baseball.
Scott said part of the reasoning for including Crow in the trade was a bias coming from his background working in the Red Sox front office. He said they didn’t like Crow in the 2020 Draft -- when the outfielder went 19th overall. Furthermore, Crow was rated as the fifth-best prospect in the Mets’ system, behind the likes of Francisco Alvarez, Ronny Mauricio, Allan and Brett Baty.
“And I can tell you, from talking to people in the industry, he wasn’t someone that teams really asked about. And even the Cubs were asking reluctantly. He’d been drafted 19th, which isn’t usually where the top talent is. It’s usually in the top 15 picks. So, it doesn’t surprise me that the industry didn’t value him that early in his pro career.”
What I felt was the Mets’ worst trade deal ever…just got SO MUCH WORSE!
HOW IS THIS FOR A FIRST BASE PLATOON NEXT YEAR?
No, Pete Alonso won’t be back, but Jared Young has done surprisingly well as a lefty hitting batter at first base. Could he be a 2027 platoon starter vs. righties? Perhaps.
Now, imagine if you could get a solid, cheap righty hitter vs lefties to complement him. Almost the mirror image of Young.
One guy to at least consider?
Joey Meneses. Yep, him again, Mack.
In the Athletics system, he was blocked and went just 3 for 20 this year.
But in the PCL this year (thru August 17), he was ripping:
.327/.380./495 with a terrific 96 RBIs in 95 games.
.392/.441/.568 against lefties.
And…
.352/.395/.479 with RISP.
Yeah, I know it is the hitter-happy PCL, but…
Worth thinking about.
Salary cost for both Young and Meneses?
$2 million in total. Leaving…
…More $ available for needs elsewhere on the team.
Of course…there is the remaining year of one Jorge Polanco.
Cranky ankle surgically repaired, AND “REPORTING FOR DUTY…SIR.”
I’m sure Mr. Stearns wishes that Jorge walked into his office one day and said, “you know, David, that I feel like I stole your money in 2026, what with my hitting .148 with just 6 RBIs in 135 ABs.”
“I feel so bad about it, I will gimp away from the $23 million you owe me in 2027. After all, Mama always taught me to steal no pesos.”
Nah, dream on…that ain’t happening.
Only guy I remember doing that is Mike Cuddyer, who simply walked away after he hit a respectable .259 in 2015, and skipped his final 2016 Mets year, and $12.5 million he was contractually owed for that season.
And, the chances of a guy like Pol-Ankle, turning 34 next mid season, rebounding well?
Feels way too much like watching a sequel to a horror flick named:
The Yoenis Cespedes Debacle.
But assuming modest Pol-ankle health, a platoon with Young vs lefties and Polanco vs righties feels about right. Since guys hitting against lefties get only one third of the at bats, you could pencil Polanco in for 200 career-ending at bats.
Of course, there are always THE Anemic Duo, Baty and Vientos, who both, as of this writing, have close to 3,000 plate appearances and 2.8 combined WAR.
NOTE TO READER:
Anyone averaging 1 WAR every 1,000 PAs really sucks.
So, let’s move on from those two losers for 2027. Can I have an amen?
Oh, yeah, through August 20, Pete Alonso had 29 HRs, 82 RBIs, .270.
What would the Mets, seriously, have looked like in 2026, WITH HIM?
Getting Polanco was only a little better than getting Jed Lowrie who, in 2 Mets contractual years, compiled the same number of hits as me - ZERO.
Well, at least he walked once.
Like me, though, Polanco can’t hit a lick, either.
SEVEN FOR SEVEN
In Jonah Tong’s first 4 short August starts, he allowed seven runs.
How? On 7 solo home runs.
Otherwise he pitched GREAT!
Two homers allowed in 114 minor league innings last year.
Twenty two homers allowed in 100 minor league innings this year.
Tong is painfully learning that trying out new things is not always exciting.
Especially in a league where teams average above 1.2 HRs per game.
Mistakes disappear.
EXTREME HITTERS’ PARK
Brooklyn’s home park hates hitters. Extremely tough. But…
After Brooklyn scored 16 runs in Asheville on Friday night, and 15 more on Saturday night, I looked deeper at Asheville’s park.
What did I find?
More signs that Asheville in the SAL is a hitter’s absolute paradise.
Let’s start with results.
Asheville’s road pitching ERA is a weak 6.24.
But at home?
Asheville pitchers have AN INSANE AND FAR HIGHER 8.66 ERA!
Their hitters scored 440 runs in 59 home games, just 297 in 59 on the road.
Why?
I looked up field dimensions. INSANELY SMALL.
e.g., 373 feet to dead center! 35 feet shorter than Citi Field.
Asheville Field Mini Dimensions
One more note: recently acquired Sammy Stafura played for Greensboro in the SAL prior to getting traded to the Mets system. The Greensboro park dimensions were not as friendly as Asheville’s, but still hitter-friendly. Their hitters racked up 426 runs in 60 home games, or 7.1 per game.
Sammy hit 13 of his 20 homers at home. How many would have gone out if hit in his current home park, in Brooklyn? I dunno, but I am guessing FEWER.
See the Greensboro park dimensions below. Cozy. Very cozy.
| Left Field: 315 ft (96 m) Left Field Jog: 322 ft (98 m) Left-Center: 365 ft (111 m) Center Field: 400 ft (122 m) Right-Center: 362 ft (110 m) Right Field Jog: 320 ft (98 m) Right Field: 312 ft (95 m) |
Lastly, last night’ winning action abounded in Metsville:
the Mets hit very well…won 10-5. Juggernaut.
Robert multi-HR game in his old home city, one being a rocket off of some guy named Brazoban, and Benge (3 hits) was great again. Senga scoreless non-save 9th.
Then…in the minors, 4 games, 4 wins…a few highlights…
Tong and Gordon pitched great…you can look it up…11.2 IP, 7 H, 0 runs…
“Remember Me” Reimer had 3 hits…he is 26 for 80 (.325) post-injury…
and let’s hear it for newbie Jack Toomey, in just his 11th pro at bat in St Lucie, who hit a game-winning grand slam. COOL!
…and Zack Mack won that game in relief, to move to 8-2, 2.74 for the year.
HAPPY SUNDAY.
Hmm..
ReplyDeleteLOL
ReplyDeleteThat guy Mack is pretty good, though.
Tong, too.
Vargas
ReplyDelete0-3
2-K
I watched a video of Vargas with a base hit the other day. To me, his bat looks slow. I did not go further in that analysis, but a slow bat will not lead to a major league career, if my quick take was accurate. Many hitters will reach the upper minors, but very few get to cross over into the promised land.
DeletePitchers? Many get to come. 46 last year, 34 so far this year. DAVID’S TURNSTILES.
As I noted in the past, the 1969 Mets and the 1986 Mets had something in common: each team only used 15 pitchers. Compare that to David’s turnstile.
ReplyDeleteTwo quickies: I like the idea of a platoon at 1B for next year, though I am rethinking Goldschmidt as the potential RH bat. There will be many potential options, while the Mets wait to see who among their minor leaguers at the position moves to the head of the class.
ReplyDeleteAs to quick bats, you may recall my enthusiasm for Reimer precisely because he had what struck me as the quickest bat I'd seen during ST. It's good to see he is progressing post injury. The problem with him is that he has about as much time off due to injury as time on upon recovery.
Otherwise he'd be another potential 1B platooner next year.
I will also say this.
DeleteIt's a lot easier to play that game UP NORTH in the SUMMER than APRIL
If Reimer is another potentially chronically injured player, give him the David Ortiz, Edgar Martinez, Harold Baines treatment and tell him that he is only a DH. Let him learn one thing well.
DeleteNo one loves Joey. I get it. WAH!
DeleteI know that Jacob tore his hamstring in 2024, but his other injuries this year, I’m not sure what caused them. If he got hurt playing in the field, then DH role be mostly suitable for him. Again, frankly, I could care less what his season stats are. I care whether or not he can hit. I do remember that Jeff McNeil missed most of 2016 and 2017 with two different injuries, and he looked bleak as a candidate. But then he got healthy and went nuts and secured himself a nine year major league career. Maybe Jacob can do a Jeffy.
DeleteAnd while we're only indirectly talking about DH, I think with a bit more seasoning and a very minor reduction in emphasis on launch angle, Amick might well be a far better choice than Alvarez.
ReplyDelete2027 - Alvarez
Delete1B - Young
2028 -.Alvarez
1B - Amick or Soto
Amick needs to cut his K rate, but these days, so do most minor leaguers. Amick needs ro get his average up. He could be dangerous by 2028.
DeleteAnd back to mechanics, without discussing Alvarez, I promise. I don't think most folks understand how to think about launch angle. They know what it is, but they overstate its impact on height and descent angle.
ReplyDeleteAgain using golf. The average loft on a 7i that the clubs pros use is around 34*. We mere mortals often use clubs whose 7i is about 30*. I use myself as example for these purposes. The launch angle is what the ball leaves the club upon impact is. I typically have 12* of shaft lean which means I reduce the loft and impact by that much. As a result my usual launch angle for a 7i is 17-18*.
That coincides with what the typical loft angle for pros with a 7i was roughly 7/8 years ago.
Now however some pros launch their 7i as low as 10* which is insane.
But that is only half of the insanity.
They also hit a 7i between 175-190 yds whereas I hit it roughly 140-145 yds, which is good for my age but not so much for my game :-).
But the most interesting fact is that they hit their normal 7i with that launch angle and to that distance at least twice as high at the apex of its flight and with a much steeper descent angle than me.
how is all that possible? one simple answer. SPEED.
Speed increases spin. Spin increases potential time in the air and height and descent angle.
So what a coach/player in baseball should be looking at is NOT launch angle but an optimization of launch angle and speed, which in baseball is roughly exit velocity.
And now you can see the collateral issue emerge, which is part of the reason that BAs are as bad as they are and K rates as high as they are:
Increasing launch angle more for slower swing speeds increases the potential to keep the ball in the air longer (if you can hit it).
But there is an optimal launch for every swing speed and that has to be measured against the expected reduction in contact -- including hard contact for each hitter.
So someone like say McNeil or Nimmo can raise their HR total a certain % by increasing launch angle after which they get no significant increase in HR output, but they get worse contact numbers, especially hard contact numbers, and they do much worse on certain pitches, e.g high in zone heat.
So, to follow on this briefly. Someone with a relatively level swing throughout the zone but also makes a lot of hard content, could improve their home run output slightly by increasing launch angle slightly, but one should be careful about doing so since they are already getting a lot of potential lift from their speed. Someone like me would never be able to.hit a home run even with the ball on a tee, because i don't have the speed to generate enough distance (absent a hurricane force behind me), Increasing launch would just make my bat to ball contact worse with no compensatory benefit.
ReplyDeleteAlmost every player in between me and Judge speed wise has to put their swing onto an optimizer algorithm. Obviously someone like Arraez has figured that out, and someone like Chisholm has not.
You got to figure out what you do best, i.e. where your real value to the offense lies.
My basic approach as a coach would involve identifying the range of most likely outcomes. If the likely outcome for X player is 5 more HRs but 50 more strikeouts and fewer doubles. I would have that player work much more on efficient mechanics to accelerate the bat with less effort than try to raise launch, or work on increasing my foot speed, pitch recognition, etc.
Launch angle that is not nested in this level of understanding or more is fools gold.
Jules, in golf a ball can roll and whether it’s in the air or not makes no difference. In baseball, the launch angle is important to get it over the field and over the wall. When Brett Baty first came up, he hit it hard but he hit it on the ground. Now we just got that kid from Tampa who hits it hard but also it’s on the ground. Petri needs to learn how to lift the ball and use that 55% hard hit rate to a better result.
DeleteQuestion about the draft, wasn’t there a rule that teams cannot draft in the top 10 2 years in a row?
ReplyDeleteIf so are there any teams like that this year?
I believe the Giants and Pittsburgh fall in that non-top 10 category. Here are rules as per TANKATHON site:
DeleteDETERMINING THE MLB DRAFT ORDER
1 Picks 1-6 are determined by a weighted lottery drawing of non-playoff teams
2 Teams receiving revenue sharing cannot be selected in the lottery more than two years in a row
3 Teams paying revenue sharing cannot be selected in the lottery in consecutive years
4 Picks 7-18 are the remaining lottery teams, ordered by winning percentage
5 Playoff teams are grouped by the round in which they are eliminated, with revenue sharing recipients picking first
6 Teams eliminated in the Wild Card Round get picks 19-22
7 Teams eliminated in the Divisional Round get picks 23-26
8 Teams eliminated in the League Championship Series get picks 27-28
9 World Series loser gets pick 29
10 World Series winner gets pick 30
I assume those rules are accurate.
DeleteGus-- When I talk about golf I am always talking about carry distance, since that is what people use when they determine what club to hit when and under what conditions. A coach always asks a player 'how far do you carry your X club. Also I focused on speed leading to height and descent angle which has a lot to do with clearing fences :-)
ReplyDeleteI should have made clear but didn't that every golf club (even putter) has loft so you need loft to get the ball in the air. The issue is just about optimal launch, not the absence of launch v abundance of it.
It's really helpful I found to focus on the shape of many fly balls, say, that end up (I am making up this number) a foot short of the warning track.. Some balls are ascending for about 3/4 of their total distance then seem to fall directly down and others are more 60/40. They can each tell you something about spin. Other things being equal the second could have used more spin to keep it ascending longer; From there you can ask, what was the exit velocity. If it was low then the next issue is whether the batter has the capacity for more adding spin through speed.. If not then the only way to get more up is through launch angle. So you ask then what was the launch angle and how much would it have carried with more launch.
If yes, then you look at where he hit it on the bat and you are off on a different duscussion about impact alignment. You really don't do this after just one fly ball, but after hundreds and that's how you figure out how to coach someone.
The first ball that fell out of the sky could only descend at that angle from a high height and it almost always means the player had too much spin, and the way we've talked about that forever in baseball is that he got too much under it. which just means the launch was too high. If that happens a lot with a player you then want to see if he has the speed necessary to turn those lazy but long fly balls into home runs. If he does, then you need to get him to change his launch angle (reduce it); the speed will give him the ultimate height he needs at a lower lauch angle.
My overall point is that we confuse launch angle with height. A pro golfer lauhning a 4* more lofted 7i at half of what I launch my 7i at and hits it nearly twice as high as I do is proof that launch angle is not determinative of height. That's my point. You need to put together speed with launch angle.
I wasn't talking about hitting ground balls v getting the ball in the air, which, as it happens can have more to do with angle of attack (AoA) than with launch angle. I haven't seen Petri swing yet so I can't judge his AoA. AoA and launch can be connected but they are not the same thing and you don't want to be fixing the wrong thing. Someone can have a downward angle of attack and still hit the ball up in the air. We see this all the time with failed bunt attempts that end up as foul pop ups caught by 1 or 3B man!.
If Petri is barreling his grounders that just tells us he is getting the part of the bat that can generate the most force on the ball and if he does that consistently then the issue should be addressed first by determining his angle of attack which in this case would benefit from making it upward to some degree relative to where it has been, and that may require simply replacing it with a more level swing as barreling plus speed should create lift enough for line drive double power. I'm an incrementalist about adding launch and an optimizer overall about the interplay of the factors that go into producing overall 'carry' distance.