Cautious Optimist -- If he (Bichette) stays or if he goes

 

The Mets signed Bo Bichette one day after their bid to land Kyle Tucker failed. Both Tucker and Bichette have failed to live up to the hype or the compensation packages they received.  Bichette had a miserable two months to start his tenure with the Mets, and fans responded accordingly, clamoring for the FO to trade him at the deadline, if not sooner.  

A trade was never going to happen as Bichette's contract made him untradable. Once the season ends, however, he can opt out of the remaining two years of his contract, thus becoming an unrestricted FA. If he opts out, the Mets will have to pay him an additional 5m dollars, which would bring his compensation for a one year tenure with the team to an eye-popping $52M. 

The upcoming FA market is bereft of talented hitters, increasing Bichette's leverage. He also has independent reason to look for a long term deal before the new CBA goes into effect. 

I am less interested in what Bichette ultimately decides to do (and why) than what the impact will be on the Mets short and mid-term plans.

How does Bichette's decision impact what the Mets should do in putting together next year's roster?

Bichette's departure would create a hole at 3B, but would also provide 40 million that could be spent filling the void or elsewhere. With Jefferson Rojas knocking on the major league door, there is no chance the Mets will bring in someone from outside the organization for what is likely to be a one year tenure. The Mets have three in house options: Baty and Mauricio, two of original baby Mets on their way out the door, or Rojas who might be ready to take Bichette's place as soon as it becomes available.  

If the plan is to treat 2027 as a bridge year with an eye towards competing in 2028 you might think they should choose either Baty or Mauricio to start the season and then move either to the bench when Rojas is brought up -- as early, perhaps, as mid-season. 

On the other hand, if the plan is to continue amassing talent and adding youth to the major league roster (as they have done this year -- adding Benge, Ewing, Scott and Thornton), then the loss of Bichette provides the Mets with an opportunity to do just that.

Doing that may mean an earlier than expected promotion of Rojas, and the departure of Mauricio or Baty or both.

But taking advantage of the opportunity means the Mets would have to consider trading Lindor as well.  A Lindor trade will bring additional talented youngsters: how talented and how many will depend in part on how much of Lindor's remaining contract Cohen is willing to absorb.

Trading Lindor creates a hole at SS, likely to be filled, at least in the short term, by Mitch Voit.  Voit lacks Lindor's power and experience, but he is sound fielder, takes professional at bats, has a high BB IQ and has plus speed, which makes him a fit for the vision of the team represented by the likes of Ewing and Benge. 

No reason to stop there. If Bichette opts out and the team decides to continue the transition strategy they adopted in the draft and doubled down on at the deadline of amassing versatile talent throughout the organization, surely they should consider trading everyone who has value to others and who does not figure in their plans for the mid-term -- from 2028-2032.

That means they should be open to trading Francisco Alvarez, who is currently performing as a defensively challenged back-up to Torrens.  There are a number of other catchers in the organization who are likely to be better replacements for Torrens when it is time to move on from him.

Then there's the 40MM in salary savings.

If they trade Lindor as well, that number increases by half or more -- depending on how much of Lindor's salary Cohen will have to absorb. 

Of the 60 or so million, a good portion should go to enhancing the starting rotation in free agency.  Perhaps signing a Skubal to head the rotation would be easier on the pocketbook than it would be otherwise.

That's an attractive possibility, but a word of caution.  Even in his run of Cy Young awards, Skubal has been no better than a 6 inning pitcher: a great one at that, but not an innings eater.  And the Mets need more pitchers capable of pitching deeper into games.

Of course, dreams of Skubal in the rotation beg the question of whether he would be interested in signing on to a team that would have just replaced Bichette and Lindor with Rojas and Voit!

And more.  Sending Lindor packing along with Bichette would obviously make the Mets weaker next year, which would mean that the team was throwing away another year of Soto's prime by being non-competitive. It may also do Rojas and Voit more harm than good to be promoted prematurely.

It is possible that some of the money saved next year could help close the book on Semien and move Petri to 2B, bring in Goldschmidt or Walker to platoon with Young at 1B, if Polanco is unable to play the field or if he is unable to perform at all.

On this 'falling dominoes' scenario means Bichette's leaving triggers a complete overhaul of the infield, help for the pitching staff, a platoon at first base and a closing of the books on Semien's Mets career and maybe Polanco's as well.  Lots of additions some of which are obtained by subtraction!

Let's call this the 'Accelerating Transformation' option. 

We can contrast this with a minimalist 'Hold Steady' option.

The Hold Steady option replaces Bichette with Mauricio or Baty, with Rojas nipping at their heels but keeps everything pretty much as is, while using the additional 40M otherwise committed to Bichette to enhance pitching and other roster gaps on a short term basis in anticipation of more substantial changes delayed until 2028 and beyond.

What if Bichette stays?

Not the worst thing in itself, but it actually limits what you can do about Semien and Polanco, how much you can spend on FA pitching; and if you want to improve the talent level at the major league level it will likely be by trades.

But there are only a few trade strategies available.  You can trade from the major league roster or from the pool of prospects in the minors.  The latter approach is counterproductive and undermines the work done at the deadline.

Who's tradable at the major league level?  Well there are several people the Mets may want to trade, but fewer that other teams are likely to be interested in.  Maybe Senga falls into that group, but the two players who definitely do are Alvarez and Lindor.

Alvarez would be a nice piece for several teams and he may be able to bring back some valuable assets.  More likely, he has to be part of a package to bring back a starting pitcher or a number of prospects.  

If the team has Bichette at 3B they will be tempted to keep Lindor as his running mate.

If you aren't willing to trade Lindor, the only meaningful improvements that can be made would come courtesy of Cohen's pocketbook.  

Ironically, unless the Mets are prepared to trade Lindor and Alvarez, the truth is that Bichette's staying may have the unexpected consequence of killing the transformation momentum and the youth movement, while wasting another year of Soto's prime!  

Without digging into Cohen's pocketbook, there will be no closing the books on Semien or Polanco, let alone both of them

It also means that if you keep Lindor, any top flight pitcher you seek to secure through FA adds to the payroll for at least one year.  IMHO, this approach is lazy and does nothing to make the team better, and wastes time and Soto's prime. 

If Bichette remains a Met, the temptation will be to keep Lindor as well. The only tradable major leaguer who can bring back value would be Alvarez.  

You don't have any additional money to close the books on Semien, nor do you have any savings to spend on free agent starting pitching.  From my point of view, the team will look very much like this year's team but for a new manager and some additions to the FO.  

Again you have a continuum of options.

* Hold Steady

* Keep momentum going

If Bichette stays, the only way to keep the momentum going is to trade Lindor and Alvarez. Lindor provides some financial relief and can bring back significant talent the more of his salary Cohen is prepared to pay. 

Alvarez, in conjunction with some near ready existing minor league prospects, including a pitcher like Santucci or Tong could be a centerpiece in a trade for a front line pitcher like Skenes.  Just a thought.

What would I do?

I think you have to continue the transformation whether Bichette stays or goes. You have to infuse more of your prospect talent into the major league team, amass as much controllable talent as you can by trading the assets that are valuable to other teams but that do not figure in your future plans.  On the current Mets roster there are two players who fit that description: Lindor and Alvarez.

There may be others as the next season unfolds, including Senga and Manaea, both of whose contracts expire at the end of next season.  That's another reason why the Mets need to move tradable pieces now.  

Whether Bichette stays or goes, we should be looking to close the books on Semien, trade Lindor on the theory that it's better to be one year too early than one year too late. Trade Alvarez while teams still believe in him.  He's not the catcher of the future here.   

If Bichette stays, keeping the momentum going could be very costly to the owner.  He would have to pay Bichette's salary, pay to play in the FA pitching market, and pay to close the books on Semien.  If he keeps Semien, we miss the opportunity to promote a deserving prospect, whether Voit or Petri, or we end up paying 20M+ for an elderly, diminished bench player!

It's only worse, if the Mets decide to keep Lindor as well.

I'm sure I am in the minority, but I think we should all be hoping that Bichette opts out.  No disrespect for Bichette.  It's just that his staying hamstrings the Mets far more than I had previously thought it would.

This team isn't good enough to win as is.  There is nothing to be said for any hold steady strategy.  The quicker we get to putting together a team that can win, the better.

The future can't come soon enough for this Mets fan.

What do you think?