Francisco Alvarez is out of control. Again.
The former top prospect with undeniable power and a strong arm has now been in the major leagues for four full seasons plus his abbreviated call-up year. He has also been back in the minor leagues for many injury rehabilitation trips and other remedial tune-ups.
He is that "can’t miss" prospect that always seems to miss. Why? He cannot control his passion to make the big play. Huge swings and misses on balls that he could have driven into the opposite field gap. Wild throws on the 1-in-100 chance that he can gun down a runner. This is all hero behavior in a game that much more often rewards patience.
We have seen him come back from rehab assignments with a fresh new outlook – better appearances at the plate with more selectivity on pitches to swing at; better blocking of pitches in the dirt. We have also seen that control reversed as soon as success starts creeping in.
It seems that each big home run is followed by several at bats where he takes mighty swings at balls that cannot be reached. One caught stealing is followed by unwarranted pick-off throws that eventually find their way into the outfield. Pitchers exploit his inability to lay off the high fastball above the strike zone and sliders that begin as strikes and dive out of the zone.
The Mets are faced with a tough dilemma: stick with the guy that has immense talent, or part with the guy who has repeatedly shown that he does not have the emotional maturity to harness that talent.
In his best days, he looks like the player that was projected to be a star catcher for many years to come. One could use examples of his great games to argue that with a little maturity and the right coaching, he can fulfill the past projections and become a threat in the middle of the lineup and a reliable backstop on defense.
In his worst days, like yesterday’s loss to the Nationals, he hurts the team with poor at-bats in critical situations and costs the team runs with defensive miscues. One could use the recurring regressions to argue that he should be packaged in a trade and replaced by a steadier influence behind the plate like Luis Torrens.
Either way, Francisco Alvarez will find a way to haunt the Mets.
The Mets’ farm system has shown some very good depth recently, with several promising pitchers like Scott, McLean, Thornton, and Tong coming up. Their middle-infield depth has soared in the post-trade deadline months. Similarly, they have developed some very high quality outfield talent like Benge, Ewing, and Morabito. But the catching progression leaves much to be desired, so there is no heir apparent to Alvarez in the pipeline.
Yes, we have seen some positive steps by Kevin Parada recently and there have been flashes of brilliance by Chris Suero, but neither seems MLB ready right now. Hayden Senger is a top notch defensive catcher but despite a better year in 2026 is still not a bat that the team is looking for. You have to go all the way down to St. Lucie before finding a star-caliber catching prospect in Yovanny Rodriguez but he has years of development in front of him. There is not an in-house solution for next year.
So the choices are not clear, but the Mets have several months to think about the high stakes risk-reward trade-off with their catching position.
Why, why, why, Francisco?
ReplyDeleteIn 10 years, we’ll be saying, well, he’s only 35.
I've stated my opinion
ReplyDeleteIntelligence: integrating experience to achieve positive change.
ReplyDeleteFirst, find someone better.
ReplyDeletePromote Suero to AAA (regardless of 2026) and give him 400+ at-bats
ReplyDeleteTrade Alvy
2027 catching tandem of Torrens and Parada
Or Torrens and Senger
DeleteAs the 'original' Alvarez skeptic, the issue the Mets face is not whether to hold onto him until they find someone better. I am being totally objective here as someone who has spent considerable time on body movement pattern LEARNING and while I admit to being 'often wrong but rarely uncertain', I am right about Alvarez having terrible mechanics. So the issue for the Mets is whether he can be fixed or not; and what can they get for him in potential trades.
ReplyDeleteIf they view him as unfixable, then his value on the trade market will only diminish over time. And I have explained why often enough not to have to repeat it. So they have to answer the first question first. Is he fixable and how do they fix it.
Fixability has as much to do with him as it has to do with coaching. There are hundreds of teachers/coaches who could fix him. But can he learn and adapt and be disciplined. I think the view from some voices in the Mets who know more than I do about him (since I only can infer from his behavior), is skepticism that he can.
I think they can do one thing to gain confidence in their judgment one way or the other. Send him immediately after a short break after the season to a body movement pattern coach/team. There are several with knowledge in and outside baseball. It either takes or it doesn't. It will take at least three months and trained eyes. It takes longer to own it, but really good and experienced coaches can give a pretty reasonable assessment about whether the person they have worked over a period of time will stick with it or revert. There is no certainty, but experienced coaches have a good grasp of their student's mental strength as well as their physical prowess and capacity.
The Mets owe it to themselves to figure out as best they can whether he is going to be able to tap his potential or not. In the meantime they can be open to fielding potential offers to help judge the market for him.
The issue is what can they get for him when everyone in baseball sees what we all see. At 25 yrs old and being a catcher, there will always be teams who believe they can fix what ails him, but the price they are willing to take will drop.
Martin, they have someone who performs better now as a member of a team: Torrens. He is significantly better defensively; he calls a much better game, strikes out infrequently, is a much better strategic hitter, and has roughly the same batting average but less power. He also controls the game rather than losing control of himself.
So we are looking to find a complementary back=up catcher, not a star; and we are looking to see if our minor league prospects two to three years away progress.
One last word. No one in development is responsible for Alvarez's problems. He is a classic case of someone who early in his development beat the hell out of his competition by raw talent; and so he never developed skill set based on being able to compete against equally talented pitchers. And there is too much in the world of 'if it ain't broke don't fix it.' That's stupid. If it ain't ready for the next challenge, it is broke; you just don't know it yet.'
I sure as hell would put someone in charge throughout my organization (a small team actually) devoted to teaching our coaches and hitting instructors and working with them on body movement pattern identification and LEARNINg, which has to be personalized.
There is no way to say positive things about someone who won't execute directions
DeleteI'm sure there is some ego out there that feels they can change things here.
Deal him
I fear that you are right on with that assessment, Jules. He has not shown the mental discipline to commit the right mechanics to muscle memory. It was easy to pass this off to emotional immaturity when he was 22, but he is running out of time to figure this out, especially with a talented catcher behind him and a manager that has the guts to do the right thing for the team.
DeleteI'm the guy on the other side of the Alvarez issue. You can't teach talent and he's a very talented dude. Torrens is a terrific backup and should remain so. I expect a better 2027 season from him. The alternatives are underwhelming.
ReplyDeleteThis is why I said he will haunt the Mets either way.
DeleteAlvarez will be a problem with the Mets up until he gets traded. After that, the receiving team will find a way to fix him. You can't trade a strong player unless you are getting a strong player back. Now, if the Mets were to find a way to trade Alvarez together with say Semien and dump most of his contract to another organization then that could work for the Mets.
ReplyDeleteI am an optimist in that I believe that every player can improve if they are committed to doing so. Sometimes it is really hard. Sometimes a life event forces you to work harder on doing so. People often underestimate the impact of the latter as a proximate cause of people turning their careers around upon being traded. We just don't know who Alvarez is. I am not sure he does at this point.
ReplyDeleteWe don't know if Alvarez is a strong player. All we can do is know what other teams think about how strong he is or about how likely he is to reach his (physical) potential, which is all about having the wherewithal to harness your gifts and be honest with yourself.
He will haunt the Mets one way or another as Paul says.
I have only one caveat in the form of a question. If he hadn't had that one season displaying power and catching the likes of Verlander and Schezer would you say that he is a strong player. You can say, but he did. And therein lies the worry if you let him go. On the other hand, I feel about that one season the way I feel about Vientos' one power surge season. In both cases it was very early in their careers. Once pitchers figured out that both of them have gaping holes up and in and down and away, and an inability to stay off those pitches neither player has been able to duplicate their performance -- to put it mildly.
One little irony: while both Vientos and Alvarez have much the same holes, they have them for different reasons and respond to having them completely differently (other than both bine unable to lay off). Alvarez has adopted an impatient batting approach and Vientos has adopted an overly patient one. Both have led to a lot of 0-2 counts and unproductive at bats