Many people are advocating a reunion with one of the rare David Stearns transactions that actually flourished for the Mets when he was healthy, free agent to be Clay Holmes.
How good was he? Temporarily disregard his Yankee days as a highly effective relief pitcher and instead ponder just his Mets career as a starter. Between 2025 and 2026 he pitched a grand total of 40 games started in which he went 16-12 with an ERA of 3.26. His WHIP was in the 1.200 range. Anyone pondering whether or not he was successful in his conversion from reliever to starter isn’t watching the man pitch.
Of course, David Stearns then traded him away during his remarkable 2026 dominance to the Cubs who were fighting to move up in their division. They indeed benefited from the acquisition and made it to October baseball before losing their post season path in the first round.
The transaction was a combination of attempting to fortify the farm system and realizing that a QO would have been necessary to be offered and declined for the Mets to obtain a draft pick had Holmes entered free agency. Instead he was bundled with reserve outfielder Tyrone Taylor and brought back Jefferson Rojas who has immediately become the Mets’ top minor league prospect.
For all of the well deserved criticism, hostility and frustration Stearns has earned during his Mets tenure, this particular trade was indeed justifiable and understandable. Given that the Cubs are equally unlikely to make a QO on Holmes and Holmes is fully expected to decline his $12 million player option for 2027, it means that the now former Met is available to the highest bidder.
After considering the more expensive Michael King who has had a longer interval as a starting pitcher, it would seem Holmes is a much more reasonably priced and nearly as talented candidate to join the 2027 rotation. Most people are suggesting Holmes is likely to command a multiyear deal worth $20 million per season. Considering that he is coming off Stearns’ two year $26 million deal. At age 34 for the upcoming season he will not get a super long deal but it will be lucrative.
Some advocate the Mets go all-in on both former Yankee relievers. If the Mets spent $32 million per year for King and $20 million per year for Holmes that is a total of $52 million annually. That rate is close to the most optimistic paycheck burden the Dodgers, Yankees or whomever will pay for Tarik Skubal while spreading risk and limiting the length of commitment. If you think about it, that’s not really a bad approach.
For now the issue is more about making starting rotation decisions promptly instead of waiting until just before spring training begins in the hope the market comes down. For now the Mets have a rotation of Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, Zac Thornton, Sean Manaea and some candidates like Jonah Tong, Tobias Myers, Tylor Megill and Kodai Senga. Obviously reinforcements like Holmes and King would fortify the top five while pushing out the weaker links.
I like the idea of Holmes OR King. I hate long term contracts more and more.
ReplyDeleteBut for Skubal, an exception: if Cohen wants to gamble, like my brother said, how long have we got left, I want to WIN now.
I like Holmes. But I agree either one. I think King will cost more and want longer contract.
ReplyDelete1. My target remains 2028
ReplyDelete2. I hate long term contracts, especially pitchers
3. I hate old pitchers even more
4. Starting with what I have, I'm solid with McLean and Scott
5. Thornton, Tong, Santucci, Wennington, Manaea, and Megill should produce me two more 2027 starters
6. I would offer Skubal six years, not one more
7. Same King
8. Past that, I would look for a trade
The he SP market will likely be slow until Skubal signs somewhere & with the lockout it may take a long while.
ReplyDelete'Two things can be true at the same time.' This is one of the most puzzling or banal statements ever. After all, lots of things are true at the same time. Including the statement itself and any other statement that is true.
ReplyDeleteBut, there is some irony in it. Before the Mets traded Holmes and fans held a glimmer of hope for next year, many was the voice requesting that the team offer him a three year extension. I was one such voice. On the other hand, his performance in September for the Cubs was quite poor -- even worse than very poor. So is it possible that it would have been wise to offer him an extension in June or July of last season but unwise to resign him as a FA for 3 years now. I am inclined to think that both statements are true at the same time (now).
King didn't get the offers he was looking for last year, in part, I believe because he was given a QO. No QO this year. Younger than Holmes; more versatile stuff, but not worth a long term deal. He's also neither an innings eater or a top of the rotation pitcher. Got to keep focus on what is actually needed to complement the pitchers we have and the risks they present as well as their ceilings.
ReplyDeleteAnd ultimately the staff has to be put together for post season play, whatever one's target year may be.
I agree that the Holmes trade at the deadline was one of the better ones. We would not have benefitted from good performance by him in the last two months. In return we got a legitimate #1 prospect. Taylor was a tough one to lose, but with the outfielders we had it was a cost we could afford. I would bring Holmes back. He has plenty of arm left.
ReplyDeleteI think spending on both Holmes and King would be the correct move as opposed to Skubal.
ReplyDelete2 years ago I believe the Yankees had the better offseason moves then when we got Soto (who I really do like) and they filled in their whole team with what they needed and still spent less. I think we need that type of offseason not another one and done, put your eggs in one basket kind of offseason.
If we got Skubal we would have two of the best players Soto and Skubal but if either of them go down for any amount of time the poop will hit the fan.
Also Holmes being traded doesn’t have the option of getting offered Qualifying offer
DeleteHolmes was a very solid performer for us. He will receive at least a 3 yr contract. Were we to sign him, he would still leave us an innings eater and an Ace short. Who would be the top four starters in a 7 game series. My problem is that if you start McLean in game 1 and you lose and use up some of the pen, who is game 2 starter.. Padres put King out there yesterday and he was excellent against the Brewers for 5 innings.
ReplyDeleteYankees can no longer get more than 5 out of Cole as a general matter, but can get more out of Schlitler and Fried. That makes a big difference in my mind.
What hurts Dodgers now is that they can't get more than 5 innings from Snell or ohtani or Gausman. They can get 6 out of Skubal and as much as they need from Yamamoto. We can get 6 out of McLean, maybe 7 by next year in important situations. Tong and Scott are nowhere near that; and Thornton can be when he is efficient, but he doesn't have the repetoire yet for going through a lineup a 3rd time. Holmes won't help that and I am not sure King will either. Frankly I don't know if Skubal would. But if Skubal brings his A/A- game, you are in it through 6 innings every time. The issue with him is years on the contract.
A few years back, the Royals traded Ardolis Chapman to the Rangers for a AA pitxher named Cole Regans. They put Regans right into their starting rotation the next spring and he immediately became their ace. Fast forward three years, and he’s injured. I am comparing Regans to Santucci in terms of possibilities, not injuries.
ReplyDeleteI don’t want King or Holmes. The Mets need a true ace. The kids are just as good as King or Holmes and more controllable.
FWIW, MLB lists top 10 lefty prospect pitchers. Santucci is not one.
DeleteFWIW, Part 2: Jonathan Santucci missed MLB Pipeline's Top 10 Left-Handed Pitching Prospects list for 2026 by landing just outside the final cut behind the 10th-ranked left-hander, Cam Caminiti
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