Reese Kaplan -- Will the Mets Actually Sign a Top Slugger for 1B?

OK, so think ALL the way back to the day Steve Cohen and his checkbook took over the joke of  a franchise from the financially strapped Wilpon family.  For a brief period of time it appeared as if the Mets would have their Steinbrenner moment and have the resources to invest in the best of the best instead of trying to make due with second, third or fourth tier alternatives. 

Sometimes it worked.  Think Juan Soto, Clay Holmes, A.J. Minter, Luke Weaver and perhaps another name or two at a lesser level.  Often it did not when the club decided to gamble on lightning in a bottle types who couldn’t find a spark or chronically injured athletes who were not even able to take the field or AAAA types who would never start on a contending team.

Roll forward to the upcoming season which may or may not happen depending on the progress of the CBA negotiations.  Towards that uncertainty many are expressing a dismissive attitude towards 2027 and writing it off as a prelude to 2028.  Towards that end it is possible that making a sizable investment in a long term contract that might start off on a minuscule number of games for 2027.

They say sometimes when others zig it is prudent for you to zag.  Using that approach in thinking, look past the in-house options for first base and bypass the end-of-their-career free agents who once were good but whose best days are very much in the rearview mirror.

So the ultimate zag might indeed be looking past the other 29 major league team rosters and widen the lens far enough to see what’s possible from outside the USA.  Just as the White Sox made the expensive gamble to spend big on Japanese free agent Munetaka Murakami who gave them 35 HRs and helped them vault from last place to the post season.  It was just a two year contract for $34 million total.  Food for thought, huh???

This year there is a slugger by the name of Teruaki Sato who won the Japanese league’s triple crown with a .306 average, 39 HRs and 106 RBIs.  That’s not a bad follow up to his 2025 MVP season.  Going into the 2027 MLB season for however long it is he will be turning 28 and although the lefty banger is primarily considered a third baseman there is ample belief he could cross the diamond to play first. 

So what would it take to land Sato in Queens?  The Mets (including David Stearns) have already traveled to Japan to scout the man and at least up until now have not thrown in the towel on consideration of offering him a contract.  It won’t be cheap.  

Though he earns just $3.3 million for the Hanshin Tigers many estimate he could threaten the $200 million mark for multiyear American contract.  For a point of comparison, the deal the Mets never even tried to equal on Pete Alonso was for $155 million over 5 years, an annual rate of $31 million.  

For the younger Sato $200 million might mean $25 million annually for the next 8 years.  You could work on higher annual rates and shorter terms but it’s the range he’s predicted to get.

So if you are the Mets do you try to swing for the fences to land a conspicuously appealing free agent who also addresses a major roster need?  Or instead do you hope that some combination of Jorge Polanco, Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, Christopher Morel, Billy Amick and/or Ryan Clifford will deliver just as much?