MACK – Carson Wiggins

 

Baseball America              @BaseballAmerica

Mets first-round pick Carson Wiggins enters BA's 2027 rankings as New York's No. 9 overall prospect

Assuming a full recovery from Tommy John surgery, Wiggins has power stuff that will play in pro ball. The only question is whether his control and durability will be enough to work as a mid-rotation starter or if he’s better suited as a leverage reliever.

Grok –

Carson Wiggins (RHP, Arkansas/Mets 2026 first-round pick, No. 27 overall) has a high-upside power arsenal led by an elite fastball-slider combination, with developing secondary pitches.⁠

He is a 6-foot-5, 215-pound right-hander from Roland, OK (Roland HS). He threw only 14 innings as a true freshman at Arkansas in 2025 (1-1, 3.21 ERA, 20 K, 9 BB in 14 relief appearances) before an elbow injury led to internal brace surgery; he missed all of 2026. The Mets signed him for the full slot value of about $3.47 million.

Pitch repertoire

Fastball: 

Elite (often graded 70–80). Averaged ~98–99 mph in 2025 college action (topped 102 mph); features late hop/carry/ride and above-average spin (~2,500 rpm). At the 2026 MLB Draft Combine (not full effort post-surgery), it sat mid-90s and peaked at ~97.4 mph. Pure power heater that generates swing-and-miss.⁠

Slider: 

Plus to plus-plus (often graded 60–70). Upper-80s (high-spin, ~2,500–2,700+ rpm) with depth, two-plane or sharp horizontal break; generates high chase/whiff rates (e.g., ~74% miss rate and 1-for-16 with 14 K in limited 2025 sample). Primary out-pitch that pairs extremely well with the fastball.⁠

Curveball: 

Developing/power curve (graded ~50–55). Mid-80s with more top-down/vertical shape; high spin (e.g., ~2,719 rpm at Combine). Used less frequently in college; part of post-surgery expansion of the arsenal.⁠

Changeup: 

Below-average to fringe (graded ~40–50). Mid- to low-80s with some tumble/fade; shown more in high school, used sparingly at Arkansas. He has worked on it (and occasionally a splitter) to add depth.⁠

In college he was primarily a two-pitch (FB/SL) reliever with electric pure stuff but inconsistent command/control (elevated walk rate). Post-surgery he has emphasized polishing off speed pitches and command for potential starter upside. 

Scouts see a high ceiling as a front-line starter if command and secondaries improve, or a high-leverage/late-inning reliever (or closer) based on the FB/SL alone.

MACK:

You know how I hate it when the Mets drafts damaged players. Especially pitchers. On paper, Wiggins has everything you want from a first-round pick, but he went into this surgery with a huge control problem. What comes out is nobody’s guess at this point.