What does the Marcus Semien 2026 season for the Mets suggest as a course of action for the team roster as it currently exists?
Obviously the defensive and offensive skills are nowhere near what they once were and Semien is benefiting greatly from the long term contract he signed while he was still a productive player delivering All Star worthy output on both sides of the field.
Today, however, he’s a shell of his former self and has become a cautionary tale regarding the risk of these guaranteed deals that linger into a formerly great player’s latter stages as he inches towards retirement. People have seen this trend happen before with others when frequent injuries and diminished output underscore why the deal was not a particularly good long term strategy for the roster nor the payroll budget.
While there is no ready made answer as to how to address the water under the bridge problem with Semien still on payroll or 2027 and 2028, it does open up the same question about others on the Mets roster. For the moment we will ignore Juan Soto and his unheard of 15 year contract signed while in his 20s as he is a true star caliber player with the bat. He may have to shift to DH at some point given his defensive challenges and the desire to keep him off the IL. For now, however, he is close to earning his annual pay rate.
Injuries aside (as well as the rumored rift between he and Soto), no one has wasted a single week as a Mets fan regretting that decision in any way. When he’s on the field and in the lineup he demonstrates a rare combination of formidable skills that indeed anchor both the infield and the lineup.
Fast forward to the close of the 2026 season and realize that you are now halfway through that monster deal with the good still far outweighing the bad. It is now, however, we need to take a page from the Branch Rickey managerial manual and recount his oft quoted philosophy that sometimes it’s best to "Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late."
So what does that mean for the Mets and their future with Lindor? Right now going into the 2027 season the shortstop has seemingly lost a bit of range defensively while he struggled after his injuries to produce as he had in the past. While no one is saying he is clearly over the hill, the Semien handwriting is still on the wall and it is is reasonable to question if Lindor during his ages 33 through 37 seasons will produce at the same level as he had earlier in his career. Given his annual hit for $34.1 million, a solid player earning All Star money is a less robust value to the roster and maybe it is time to consider his long term value to the Mets.
Right now in the minors the Mets have some interesting middle infielders making their way up the ladder but no one is suggesting any of them is a direct WAR replacement for Lindor. The issue here is about spending effectively during someone’s latter years in a contract and you have to consider what Branch Rickey said.
Is it time to begin consideration of a Lindor trade elsewhere and letting another club live with the Semien like decline that is likely to occur while freeing up a lot of payroll capital?
I would give Lindor one more year to see if his value can increase again with a good year. Then trade him. With the 2026injuries and everything, this season may have just been an outlier.
ReplyDeleteBut if he hits better in the last year of his long contract as he did in his bad year of 2026, I will be surprised.
The thing that people have to realize in baseball today is that guy throws so much harder than they did back in Hank Aaron’s Day or Willie Mays’ Day, and when you get older, and your reflexes slow ever so slightly, which seems to happen with almost everybody, it is very very hard to hit that ultra high velocity stuff. On that basis, trade them a year too early.
I'm not sure anyone would take on the Lindor contract A YEAR FROM NOW
Deletetoo many exciting young shortstops in this game
A year too late. I agree, unless some team wants him for 2B.
DeleteI continue my "2027 is to set up 2028" banter
ReplyDeleteFeel free to play him at second until Pitre is ready
Lindor does continue to provide value and earn his salary. Last year was an anomaly because of his injuries. I expect good things from him in the shortened 2027 season. After that, there is only one more year of Bichette, so third base is an option. There is no way that any of the great upcoming middle infield prospects will provide more value than Lindor in 2027.
ReplyDeleteLindor has no many non-field reasons to keep him around, buy I used to say that about Pete too
DeleteBut in 2028, why couldn’t all three - Rojas, Pitre, and Voit, all sipping from the Fountain of Youth, be better than Lindor, who will turn 34 in November 2027, making him 34.4 years old on opening day? Semien was great at age 32, slipped substantially at age 33 and 34, and, well, sucked at age 35.
DeleteBB Reference may be too conservative on Lindor for 2027, but shows him with just 508 PAs, .251, and 22 HRs and 59 RBIs. Meh.
What will those projections look like another year older, for 2028? Worse.
Lindor likely move the 3B on 28 or 29. No one will take his salary, especially after the new CBA is finalized. Its pure fantasy to wish that.
ReplyDeleteWe have some great upcoming IF talent but only one in the top 100 (& towards the lower end). Not one of these players have proven they can hit mob pitching let alone hit with power yet. They all may but that is a very aggressive presumption.
The reality for a team like the Mets - with Steve cohen’s money behind them is that they will nearly always be at the top spender level. Full stop. They will adjust to the changing rules of the game but they will always spend & they will always have some level of dead money on their books.
The single biggest spending problem the cohen-era teams has had is not spending, it is the productivity of the spend-to-wins ratio. The amazing lack of PRODUCTIVE spending has been the issue. It they spent & had dead money & actually won - this would not be an issue or topic of conversation.
Get comfortable with dead money. It is a shadow of the game itself.
Robbie is right: Stearns has been wasteful with Cohen’s resources.
ReplyDeleteAs for Semien, he still shows a decent foot speed and a knack for barreling balls. Yes, he uses up most of your challenges as he feels entitled to. I mentioned the short side of a first base platoon (as Tom first mentioned) but getting rid of him altogether is probably better.
As for Lindor, yes he has many off the field obligations and that bothers me as a guy making $34MM a year but thinks he wants to be Oprah Winfrey. As Paul said, he has been hurt this year and is worth more to the Mets. He isn’t old enough to completely collapse. Keep him.
RVH is right about the inevitability of dead money. And he is also right that the key idea is the relationship between money and wins. As for Lindor, my thoughts are a little more complicated and I spell out in an upcoming post. Roughly, speaking, I'd like to see Bichette, Soto and Lindor share the DH spot next year for reasons I outline. After Bichette leaves, if he does, I expect Lindor and Soto to DH, with Lindor getting the bulk of the work there as Soto continues as a position player for most of the time until he reaches his early 30s. Perhaps as a iB man, perhaps still as a LF. Then I expect Lindor to continue in that role until his contract is up and eventually to be replaced by Soto as the nearly full time DH. For me this maximizes value, allows the team to introduce many of their top flight prospects (and potentially others) into the lineup as regulars and lots more.
ReplyDeleteI did for a time contemplate a pay down trade involving Lindor, but he is a force and an overall valuable asset.
He is never really going to be dead money, but the nature of the value he provides will change as will the distribution of it over time.
If there is real dead money now it is unquestionably Semien and Polanco and the proof is that virtually no team would trade for them. They are more like the kiind of player in basketball who you have to attach a high draft pick to in order to trade them!
To me, the next category of dead money after them is Manaea, but he does have value to other teams, at a reduced price. Senga has value, but it has not been fully clarified yet. He is tradeable or he can be kept if what we saw late last year is real, and then depeding on where the team is as the trade deadline approaches,, he can be traded or kept.
Once you fully understand the idea of opportunity costs you realize that paying off Semien and Polanco can be a net gain from a total cost perspective. That's just another way of understanding what dead money actually means