Every team in baseball runs out 25 players just before the game starts. Great teams have lots of great players, so the first thing we need to look at is how many do the Mets have. Remember, by not signing some big name like Manny, it looks like the 2009 version of the Mets isn't any big deal; however, let's look a little further:
Class AAA players:
OF Carlos Beltran
1B Carlos Delgado
SS Jose Reyes
3B David Wright
SP Johan Santana
RP J.J. Putz
RP Francisco Rodriquez
RP Billy Wagner
Okay, Billy Wagner won't be on the 25 on opening day, but trust me, his return by the end of the season could be the one missing link on this team. The Mets SPs last averaged around 6 innings per game. No one beat the Mets the past two years; they simply blew it themselves, especially out of the pen.
Try to imagine a September with Mets starters giving this team a lead after 6 innings, and then throwing Wagner, Putz, and Rodriquez at you? Whole different September.
So, let's consider Wagner the 26th player, and keep him out of this. That still gives the Mets 7 AAA players on a 25-man squad. That's pretty damn good, especially when you take a look at the AA list below them, that included past all-stars:
Class AA list:
2B Luis Castillo
OF Ryan Church
C Brian Schneider
SP John Maine
SP Oliver Perez
SP Mike Pelfrey
RP Pedro Feliciano
The additional 7 players listed above now give the Mets a total of 14 premium players on a 25-man squad, leaving 11 more slots to be analyzed.
Is that enough?
Well, in my opinion... no.
Look, I like Daniel Murphy, Duaner Sanchez, Jonathon Niese, Tim Redding, Ramon Castro, Nick Evans, Angel Pagan, and Fernando Tatis, but the only way any of these are going to the HOF is by renting a car after landing at LGA.
Assuming the 8 names I listed above all make the opening day lineup, that brings the total to 22 players on the team, leaving 3 slots.
I've looked over what's left on the official website and you can look at names like Brian Stokes, and Connor Robertson all day; however, this just isn't the kind of depth championship teams put up on opening day.
Me?
That's simple. I'd let the free agent market play with itself for at least another week and a half and then I'd go in bottom fishing. Trust me, there will be plenty of quality past performers, like Andruw Jones, and Junior, still out there, looking for a decent one-year contract with heavy incentives.
I mean, don't great teams have guys like this coming off the bench or pinch hitting?
Who would you rather have coming to bat in the 8th inning, down one, with 2 outs and 2 runners on?
Angel Pagan or Junior?
Robinson Cancel or Andruw?
Forecast:
As most of you seasoned Macks Mets reader know, I predicted the Mets to finish 2nd in 2007 and 3rd in 2008. 3rd is out of the question in 2009, but in my opinion, so is 1st.
I'm back to 2nd place, with a wild card berth. I believe the Phillies will start strong and end sronger, having the best record in the NL, but the Mets will win more than they did last year.
Playoff wise, the 2008 New York Giants and the 2009 Arizona Cardinals have proven you don't have to win your division to make it to the Big Game.
If Wagner comes back, don't be surprised that the Mets don't play in the World Series this year, after mowing down the Phillies in a short series.
Mack
Mack you write a piece like this on the Mets and end it by saying the Phillies will have the best record in NL. Well lets see your analysis of the Phillies then. Its my opinion Met fans (that's all bloggers are) like to rip their own team and praise the opposition with little cause or reasoning.
ReplyDeleteRCS:
ReplyDeleteI'm not ripping the Mets.
It's just my opinion that the current Phillies team is a better one... and I've said the same thing last year.
BTW - I'm not just a blogger... I'm a beat reporter that covers the Mets for Morris Communications.
Trust me, I love the Mets and will root hard this year for them.
It's just my opinion, that' all.
Mack
Good analysis, but do you honestly think Wagner will have that big of an impact this season? Even if he does come back he will probably be more of a distraction than anything else. Why would a guy with Wags' ego and mouth be ok with pitching the seventh inning? The answer: there's no way. He would just sit out unless he could be promised to close, or MAYBE to pitch the 8th. And that's assuming he recovers from TJ surgery at the age of 38 in time to pitch effectively in September, which I doubt. Don't hinge our season on Wagner returning, please, or I may have to kill myself.
ReplyDeleteMack,
ReplyDeleteI've gotta disagree with you on that one. For the past two years, the Mets and Phils have been pretty much dead even. What advantage the Phils had offensively, the Mets made up with starting pitching. It has been the bullpen which has killed their Mets, ever since their 2006 run. 2007 is in the past, but lets look at 2008. For the Phillies to win the division, it took the Phils having an unbelievable (and pretty much unrepeatable) bullpen. EVEN with that, the Phillies STILL needed the Mets to field one of (if not THE) worst bullpen in the Majors. The average NL bullpen blew 23 saves. If the Mets had just an average pen, that would yield 6 extra wins, a 95-67 team, and an NL East crown.
With that in mind, both clubs are fielding virtually the same exact teams, with a few caveats. The Mets will have a healthy Maine back in the rotation, suggesting improvement, while the Phils continue to rely on 46 yr old Jamie Moyer. In addition, whereas the Phils moved laterally in addressing their offense (the difference between Burrell and Ibanez is minimal), the Mets greatly overhauled their one major weakness - the bullpen.
Remember the stat floating around saying if games ended after 7 innings, the Mets would have won the division by 10+ games? Well, with Putz/K-Rod manning the 8th and 9th, more of those leads figure to hold up.
Further more, lets look at the Phils' AAA and AA players:
AAA:
Howard
Utley
Hamels
Lidge
Meyers
AA:
Rollins (Sorry, but his career line is .277/.333/.441/.774...thru his age 30 season. Reyes has a very similar career line, however, he is JUST entering his prime, had had a forgettable/injury plagued early portion of his career)
Victorino
Ibanez
Madson
Blanton
JC Romero
Werth (maybe)
You cannot tell me that the Phils are hands down a better team, because they are not.
Both teams are very close in terms of talent, but I think the Mets are just better. The Phils of '07 and '08 have not won more than 92-93 games....the 2006 Mets team, with slightly better offense, far worse starting pitching, and a similar bullpen won what...97 games?
The teams as constructed are very close, and you cannot say that one or the other is a lock for 1st/2nd place. Of course the addition of a certain left fielder could greatly change things.
Anon:I honestly believe, after talking to people, that Wagner will be back, and regarding his ego, believe me, he will pitch his ass off because it's contract time.
ReplyDeleteMack
Ravi:
ReplyDeleteVery well written and makes a lot of smarts...
but...
The "IFs" come into play regarding the Mets and Phillies
Trust me...
If I told you the win loss records of both the Mets and the Phillies at the all-star break last year... then told you Delgado's OPS and Slugging percentage for the 2nd half of the year... and then told you that Santana wouldn't lose a game AFTER the all-star break... you would make more sense...
it's not that the Phillies are a better team... they just play better...
though I believe (as I said at the end of my article) that the Mets will beat them in the playoffs
Mack
Mack,
ReplyDeleteThe beauty of a 162 game season is that players may get hot or cold, but over the course of 6 months, they always tend to regress toward their averages, and talent of the players in question. How many times do we see players in a miserable slump busting out in a Ruthian way (or vice versa)?
Yes Santana didn't lose a game after the All-Star break, but when it is all said and done, 16-7, with a 2.54era in 234IP is a fair representation of what Johan gives you year in year out. Further more, he has a track record of doing much better in the second half...check out the past three years post all-star vs. last year:
2006-8: 45 GS, 23-8, 2.89era
2008: 15 GS, 8-0, 2.17era.
Assume the .5 run adjustment to from AL to NL, and that he is in his statistical prime, and his 2008line compares well to the last three years
Similarly, you point to Delgado's 2nd half SLG and OPS, but I point to the 1st half numbers. For sake of comparison, lets look at pre/post all-star, full season, and career:
Pre All-Star .248/.328/.455/.783
Post All-Star .303/.386/.606/.992
2008 .271/.353/.518/.871
Career .280/.383/.546/.929
Which one is the outlier?
Now, I'm not saying he will play like the 2nd half of 2008...As they say, you are never as good as your best, but never as bad as your worst. I could go into this even more, but I think I made my point.
Ravi:
ReplyDeleteand... a good point it is...
Mack