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3/21/09
Fantasy: Is Pedro Done?
http://fantasybullpen.com/alexs-column/pedro-martinez-a-return-to-greatness/
So what should we expect? I’d say K rate of about 8, BB rate of about 2.5, his GB% should hover around 40% and his ERA should be in the mid 3’s with a good WHIP. All possible. And who does this remind us of? Umm yeah Johan Santana, who put up almost identical stats last year, aside from a lucky ERA. And Johan is also getting up there with a declining K rate and some injury concerns. I’m not saying pick Pedro in the second round, or trade for him giving up Johan, but I’m saying his skill set is still at the elite level. He is a risk of course. He could pull another hammy and his season (or career) could be done. Maybe I’m wrong and he doesn’t get that control back. And maybe the absolute abandonment of the slider destroys his K rate next year. But I just don’t see how any of these things are that likely to happen. As soon as he signs on somewhere (how could he not?) pick him up, draft him in the late rounds, or spend a buck on him in your auction. You (probably) wont be sorry you did, and worse case you lose a late round flyer and pick someone else up in his place.
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