Lot's of experts sharpening the pen regarding these kids... before the draft beings on June 9.
Remember... I'll be hosting a 2-day IGT on the draft at http://www.flushinguniversity.com/.
Will try and update OF, C, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B between now and midnight
Mack
1. Tyler Matzek - Capistrano Valley HS (California) senior… 6-3, 185… L/L… 18 years old… threw no-hiiter March 20… fastball in 89-92 range… has hit 94… fastball drops to 86-89 in the stretch… mid-70s curve… nice slider averages 82… and change… throws ¾ arm angle… most consider him the top lefty in the draft… 2009: threw no-hitter March 20… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #3 (top LHP on list) - Clean mechanics, good control, deep pitch repitroire, projection and polish…so everything age: 18.5… 5/21: Jonathan Mayo’s Top 10 picks for the draft: - 39 (#2 LHP on list) - 9. Detroit Tigers: Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif. - The Tigers are liable to do anything and will take whoever they feel is the best player available, period. That often means they are linked with whatever wild cards there are in a Draft. This time, that could mean Tate, it could mean Scheppers, or it could mean Turner. Instead, for this first week, we'll go with the prep lefty from SoCal in Matzek, who's dazzled at times with his great stuff but has been a little enigmatic with consistently bringing it to the table… 5/23 from BA: While on the topic of high school lefties, the only one who's rated ahead of Purke, talent-wise, is Tyler Matzek out in Southern California. He's been at or near the top of Draft lists from the get-go and he's certainly showed top-of-the-Draft ability on the mound… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 6) San Fransisco Giants - Tyler Matzek, LHP Capistrano Valley High School (CA) You can arrange the top five or six high school pitchers in just about any order you want this year. I view Matzek as the best. His combination of terrific mechanics, advanced control, and multiple breaking balls give him the highest floor of any prep hurler in this draft. The Giants have had great success in recent years developing pitchers, and despite their anemic offensive, you can never have enough pitching. Ideally the Giants would prefer to bolster their offense, but there doesn't look to be good offensive value at this point in the draft. Should Donavan Tate still be on the board, he's a real possibility. Rich Poythress is an outside possibility but would be a bit of a stretch at number six. 5/26 from ScoutingBook: The kind of big, strong lefthanders that scouts fall in love with, the six-foot-six Matzek not only brings overpowering heat from the left side but flusters hitters with three different offspeed pitches to boot. A king-sized ace in the making, Matzek could be the anchor of many Major League teams in the near future. If he lands with an organization with good pitching development, watch out: he'll be dazzling big leaguers sooner rather than later.
2. Mike Minor - Vanderbilt junior… 6-4, 210… has allowed only five extra-base hits in 32 innings through March 2009… previously drafted in 2006 (13th round) by Tampa Bay… 200: 103.0 IP, 8.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9… has pitched in low 90s, topping out at 94… change-up, curve, and slider… numbers through 4-7-09: 2-3, 3.55, 43K, 12BB, 46.0 IP… pressing. Velocity down… has allowed only 7 exra-baed hits in 46 innings thru 4-7… From John Sickles: Was getting attention pre-season as a top lefty in the draft, but has likely fallen behind Brouthers. Minor is 4-4, 3.93 with a 79/24 K/BB in 73 innings, 74 hits allowed, very good numbers within the Vanderbilt context, though not exceptional. Listed at 6-4, 195, he has an 88-92 MPH fastball, a curve, slider, and changeup, and seems like a safe pick that could be the second choice for a lot of teams in the second half of the round…. From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #17 (#4 LHP on list) -polished lefty with good mechanics, command, low-90's FB with terrific changeup … age: 21.4… 5/21: Jonathan Mayo’s Top 10 picks for the draft: - 3. (top LHP on list) - San Diego Padres: Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt - Traditionally, the Padres have been fairly college-heavy, at least early in Drafts, and the thinking here is they'll go that route again. The pick for now is the Vandy southpaw with a very good track record, but a guy like Crow could fit as well. If the M's don't take Ackley, the Padres very well could. That being said, there is some talk going on in the organization about going in a different direction. Specifically, that's toolsy outfielder Donavan Tate, who has tremendous athletic talent and a commitment to play football and baseball at North Carolina… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 10) Washington Nationals - Mike Minor, LHP Vanderbilt The Nationals will likely look to cut some sort of deal with the 10 pick. Some may overblow the need to go below-slot with this pick. The Nationals offered Mark Teixeira more money than the Yankees did last winter and saved cash in the draft last year by not signing Crow. GM Mike Rizzo recently told BA's Jim Callis, "We do see this draft as one where the guy we take with the No. 10 pick might be No. 25 on someone else’s board," Rizzo said. "But if we take, say, Chad Jenkins or [California outfielder] Brett Jackson or whoever, it’s because we think he’s the 10th-best guy in the draft." If you think Chad Jenkins or Brett Jackson is the 10th-best prospect, you should have your head examined. Mike Minor could be affordable and represents much better value than someone like Jackson or Jenkins.
3. Chad James - Bishop Verot HS, Fort Myers, Fla. Strong, pro body indicates his 88-90 mph fastball has room to grow… moving up the charts… now mid-90s… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #19 (#5 LHP on list) - Clean mechanics, good arm strength, FB hits 95, big time curve, usable slider and change… age: 18.3… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 17) Arizona Diamondbacks - Chad James, LHP Yukon HS (OK)The last time Arizona took a four-pitch prep lefty from Oklahoma, his name was Brett Anderson. James has drawn several comps to Anderson, but a part of that is just geography. With a fastball he runs up to 95 mph, a plus (or better) curveball, solid change and slider, good mechanics and control, James has just about everything you want out of a young pitcher.
4. Tyler Skaggs - Santa Monica (Calif.) HS… 6-5, 190… many project as high as Matzek… high 80s fastball… 12-6 curve in the 60s… projectable frame… coachable… good mound poise… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #28 (#6 LHP on list) -Tall and skinny lefty with big slow curve, good mechanics, fastball works in low-90's – age: 17.8… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 22) Minnesota Twins - Tyler Skaggs, LHP Santa Monica HS (CA) The Twins are as likely as any team to pick a prodigious high school talent and Skaggs, a polished lefty with good command and a plus curveball, fits their mold well. A speedy outfielder is certainly a possibility, Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks are both speedsters and the Twins last two first round picks, but Skaggs would represent much better value with the 22nd pick. Jiovanni Mier, a high school shortstop, is a real possibility with this pick. Mier is the shortstop most likely to be a plus defender in this draft and has a pretty solid bat.
5. James Paxton - (up from 8th) - Kentucky… dominated SEC… 37.9% K 4.8% BB… born in Canada… 6-4, 210… 97 mph fastball, slurve, changeup… 4-0, 3.30, 47K/6BB/30.0 IP through March 2009… Through 3-25-09, Paxton is 4-0, 3.30 with 47 strikeouts and six walks in 30 innings. On March 20, he out-dueled Vanderbilt lefthander Mike Minor, striking out 10 in 6.2 innings… roughed up lately, but still touching 97 mph… From John Sickles: Paxton has an unattractive 5.40 ERA, but this is around average for his context, and his other numbers are sharp: 97/17 K/BB in 65 innings, 68 hits allowed, giving him K/IP, K/BB, and H/IP marks that are all very strong for the context in which he's pitching. His biggest weakness is a high home run rate, with 10 dingers given up. Paxton is 6-4, 215 and has been clocked as high as 95 MPH. He's from Canada and is a bit raw compared to some other college pitchers, but has a very high ceiling. He could go anywhere in the first or second round… for season: 5-2, 5.30, 109K, 20BB, 73.0IP… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #11 (#3 LHP on list) - 6-foot-4 lefty with plus, plus velocity , dominating SEC (34.0% K 5.9% BB), long arm action… age: 20.5… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 11) Colorado Rockies - James Paxton, LHP University of Kentucky The Rockies have gone surprisingly college-heavy in recent years, not taking a high school player last year until the 14th round. Even post-humidor, Coors Field is a tough place to pitch and the Rockies need pitchers who can get outs on their own. Paxton keeps the ball out of play, by striking everyone out. He could go much higher, but shouldn't last past Colorado with this pick.
6. Matt Purke - (down from 3rd) - Klein (Texas) HS… 6-3, 170, L/L… 89-92 mph fastball, tops off at 95… curve break at 78… slider in the 90 range… 2-7 74-77 changeup… 18 years old… needs some meat on his bones… In October 2008, Baseball America had Purke as the 5th overall pick in the draft… BA ranks him as the 3rd top high school prospect this year… considered by some as the 2nd top arm in the draft… March ’09: fastball now topping at 97. Slender frame… throws from a low ¾ delivery… high character kid… ***possible signing problems***… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #8 (#2 LHP on list) - Matt Purke - Top Texas hurler, 6'3" hit 94 mph w/ sink in showcases, plus SL and solid change… age: 18.8 … 5/23: BA: Texas high school lefty Matthew Purke appears to be falling. Long considered to be one of the better high school arms in the class based on ability, his name has not been mentioned as much in the top third of the first round as rumors spread about a high bonus demand. But that might not be the only reason Purke's stock is slipping. The young southpaw last pitched in a game on May 1. He last worked out, throwing a bullpen, on May 7… 18) Florida Marlins - Matt Purke, LHP Klien HS (TX) The only thing that would prevent this pick from happening is money. Purke has been rumored to want top 10 cash and Florida, generally, doesn't go over slot. However, I can just about guarantee you that this pick will be a high school player, most likely a pitcher. Purke has the big frame, strong arm, and upside the Marlins love.
7. Aaron Miller – Baylor - 5-28 from MLBBonusBaby: - 48. Los Angeles (AL) – Aaron Miller, LHP, Baylor – I’ve decided to never again refer to Miller as a hitter, only thinking of him as a lefty collegiate pitcher. He’s risen up draft boards this Spring, and with Brooks Raley’s late season collapse, Miller might have secured the top spot for collegiate two-way players. Previously: #67.
8. Brooks Raley - (down from 5th) - Texas A&M… 6-3, 185, L/L, sophomore… 2008: 2nd team freshman All-American selection… 7-2, 4.76 in 18 games… moving up the charts… as of 4/23: Over 62 1/3 IP, he's allowed only 40 hits (.189 opponents' batting average) and 16 walks while striking out 65. Also an outfielder, he's leading the team with a .354 average and 21 steals… 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K on 4/25… From John Sickles: Raley is having a statistically dominant season, going 7-1, 1.96 with an 84/19 K/BB in 78 innings, 51 hits allowed. He's also playing great as an outfielder, hitting .318/.443/.459 with 33 walks and 21 steals in 157 at-bats, demonstrating athleticism though scouts prefer him on the mound. His fastball is average at 87-89 MPH, but his curveball, slider, and changeup are all solid, and his control is very good. His athleticism and command should help him stay healthy. His lack of a plus fastball, as well as his sophomore status and resultant leverage, make it very unclear where he will fall on draft day… 5/6: 1.96 RRA in 78 IP… 5/6: Baseball Draft Report has him as 3rd LHP drafted…
9. Rex Brothers –- Lipscomp – 6-1, 205… – been skyrocking up mock drafts… fastball 93-94 range, touching 96… slider at 86-88… 15 scouting directors in stands for April 3rd game vs. Kennesaw State/prospect Kyle Heckathorn… 12Ks… thru 4/23: 4-4, 2.37, 94K, 29BB, 65.0 IP… 4/30: 4-5, 3.01, only 51 hits in 68.2 IP, 101Ks, 35 BB… From John Sickles: Brouthers is moving rapidly up draft lists. He has 3.01 ERA with a 101/35 K/BB in 69 innings this spring, 51 hits allowed, demonstrating an exceptional K/P ratio. He's dominating with excellent stuff, hitting 94-96 MPH with the heater and using a nasty slider. His changeup needs work and his command is still sloppy, but his ceiling is very impressive and he could be the first college lefty drafted…. 5/17: Second only to Strasburg with 120 strikeouts this year… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 29) New York Yankees - Rex Brothers, LHP Lipscomb - With recent draft picks like Joba Chamberlin, Andrew Brackman and Gerrit Cole, I feel safe in predicting that the Yankees will go for a pitcher with an electric arm early in the draft. Brothers has a mid-90's fastball and a slider that is already a plus pitch, making him an excellent target for the Yankees. A poorly developed third pitch and below-average command mean there is a reasonable chance Brothers ends up as a reliever, but maybe then we could end all of this Joba to the pen nonsense.
10. Andrew Oliver - Oklahoma State… 6-3, 212… L/L… 28.9%K; however. 6.67 ERA through March 2009 this season… a native of Vermilion, Ohio… sophomore season: 7-2 in 15 games… 2.20, 96K/98.1 IP… 2008: earned 1st team All-Big 12… 2nd team All-American by Rivals,com… 2-20 ERA… pitched for Team USA… In October 2008, Baseball America had him as the 11th overall pick in the draft… as of 4/6/09: has allowed 13 doubles and five home runs, resulting in a 5.91 ERA… not afraid ti come inside to right handed hitters… fastball touches 95… velocity maintained in late innings… must work on secondary pitches… 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 10 K on 4.25… From John Sickles: Rated as the top college lefty by some sources pre-season, due to his combination of above average stuff with sharp command, Oliver has had a disappointing spring, going 5-4, 4.96 with a 75/28 K/BB in 62 innings, 62 hits allowed. His K/IP and H/IP marks are actually not bad, but he's lacked consistency. His stock is down, but as long as there are no health concerns, someone could still take a shot on him late in the first round. Some theorize that Oliver has been knocked a bit off-kilter emotionally by the circumstances regarding the NCAA lawsuit, and will perform better once in pro ball… end of season: 5-6, 4.83, 14 starts, 90K, 78.1 IP… from Sickles 5/25: 23. Chicago (AL) - Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State - Oliver's still a college lefty with upside, and that's all it takes for the White Sox to pick someone. He might need more time to get through the minors than your typical college pick. Previously: #17.
12. Chris Rusin - Kentucky… senior… 6-2, 190… L/L… 2009 Wallace Preseason Watch List… 2008 First-Team All-SEC (coaches)… drafted in the 23rd round of the 2008 draft by the Athletics… very little support in2008, but still turned a 6-3, 3.33 ERA…. Good fastball and excellent command of breaking ball
13. Tyler Lyons – Oklahoma State… 6-2, 207… S/L… 2nd team all-Big 12… 12 wins in 2008… 7-1, 2.99 in conference… on Team USA… excellent curve… fastball command
14. Justin Marks – - Louisville… junior… 6-3/195… L/L… 2009 Brooks Wallace Watch List… 2009 Preseason BIG EAST Pitcher of the Year… 2007 PING! Baseball All-American… 2007 BIG EAST Pitcher of the Week (4/30)… 2007 Rivals National Freshman of the Week (4/30)… 2008: named first team All-BIG EAST and second team All-America by PING...invited to compete at the 2008 USA Baseball National Team camp… Posted a 9-2 record with a 2.37 ERA in 91.0 innings, limiting opponents to a .220 average… 5/18: named Big East pitcher of the week: 27 career wins, 282 Ks, 2.82
15. David Holmberg - (up from 26th) - Port Charlotte HS… 6-4, 215… #31 in the state of Florida according to Prospectswire.com… #51 on Baseball America's list of Top 100 High School Prospects… led the state last season with 114 strikeouts and was 6-1 with a 0.70 ERA… over the last four games of the season, struck out 58 in 29 innings with a personal-best of 16 against Southeast… 5/15 from Sickles mock: 48. Los Angeles (AL) - David Holmberg, LHP, Port Charlotte HS (FL) - When looking for a prep pitcher with good upside, look no farther than Florida. Holmberg's had a solid senior season, neither helping nor hurting his draft stock. Previously: #56.
16. Beau Wright - Los Alamitos HS; Los Alamitos, CA. 6′2, 205… 89-92 fastball… big curve… fastball in the low 90s… big breaking ball… does not have third pitch developed…
17. Ian Krol – Nequea Valley HS (Ill.)… 6-1, 180… high 80s sinker… good curve… suspended for season so off he goes..
18. Daniel Bibona – UC Irvine…5-11, 165… mid-80s fastball… flawless control… compared to Tom Glavine… thru 5/6: 2.13 ERA…
19. Garrett Hughes - La Costa Canyon H.S,… 6-7, 235… Names to Underarmour all-American team… 2008 high school season: 6-1, 77K66.0 IP, no hitter…
20. Neal Davis - Virginia… 6-6, 210… L/L… junior… relief pitcher… 2008: 1.58… averaged 9.7 Ks per 9IP… ALL-ACC team…
21. Steven Rodriquez - Gulliver Prep (FL)… 6-2, 210… named to underarmour All-American team… “Paco”… #7 LHP in the state of Florida according to Prospectswire.com... member of the 2007 U-16 USA National Team …
22. Kraig Sitton - Oregon State… 6-5, 190, L/L, draft eligible sophomore… was 1-3, 4.41 this summer for Spokane/WCCBL… 2008: 22 G, 2-0, 3.91, 23 Ks
23. Matt Way - Washington State… 6-2, 182, L/L, senior… 2008: 18 appearances, 5 starts… 4.01 ERA…
24. Nick Kirk - Northern Iowa… 6-1/200… B/T… senior… 2008: 10 G, 9 starts… 3.84, 4-7… threw no-hitter on March 28 vs. Evansville
25. Matt Packer – Virginia… 6-0, 200… R/L… junior… led the NCAA with the lowest ERA, 1.14… 25 appearances, with 4 starts… opposing teams only hit .202
26. Dallas Keuchel - Arkansas… 6-3, 200, Junior, L/L… named allstar this summer in Cape Cod League… 2008: 4-3, 4.58, 74.2 IP, 61 K
27. Nick Hernandez - Tennessee… junior… 6-4/200… L/L… 2008: 14 G, 13 starts… 82.2 IP, K:BB 7.0…
28. Miers Quigley - Alabama… was drafted in the 36th round of the 2008 draft by the Twins… 2008: 5-4, 5.58 ERA in 16 games (12 starts). 3-year college record: 10-15, 5.03.
29. Robbie Erlin – Scotts Valley HS (CA)… 5-11, 160… R/L… tossed no-hitter week 5/4… FB touches 91… solid curve 70-73… good command… reminds one of Billy Wagner… one of best deliveries for a high schooler… projected out of the pen
30. Travis Smink - Virginia Military… 2008: 6-1, 1.88, 1.059 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9, 7/1 K/9, in 62.1 IP… all-league first team pick
31. Patrick Schuster – Mitchell H.S. (FL) – threw 3rd consecutive no-hitter on April 12… 8-0, 0.66 through 4/15… committed to Florida. This is getting a little ridiculous.. he threw his 4th consecutive no-hitter on 4/20…
32. Joe Serafin - Vermont… named to the 2009 Brooks Wallace Player of the Year Award Preseason Watch List ... picked up a save in a 4-3 win over Team USA in June of 2007 striking out five and walking one in three innings ...
33. Jordan John - Calallen HS… 6-3, 195, R/L… signed with Oklahoma… 85-87 fastball… 76 change-up…
34. Jeff Dennis - Binghamton… 6-6, 215, senior… 2008: 4-5, 3.97 in 14 starts… 62K/81.2IP… .203 OBA…
35. Chris Dwyer – Clemson… From MiLB 5/18: The draft-eligible freshman has some intriguing stuff, but it hasn't always led to good results in his first college season. Against Maryland, he went five innings, allowing four runs (three earned) on six hits and a walk while striking out six. For the year, he's 4-4 with a 5.03 ERA. Over 68 innings, he's given up 60 hits and 27 walks while striking out 71
36. Brendan Lafferty - UCLA… 6-5, 215, R/L… played the summer for Mankato in the Northwoods League… went 4-1, 3.93… 2008: 33 relief appearances… 4-3, 3-74, 56K/67.1 IP.
37. Riley Boening - Texas… 6-3, 210… redshirted sophomore in 2008: academic all-Big12… 13 games, 10 starts, 3-1, 6.34
38. Wes Musick - Houston…. 6-0, 190, L/L, junior…
39. Tyler Kehrer - Eastern Illinois - through 3/09: 2-1, 4.99, 37K/31.0 IP… fastball in 90-93 range… slider and change-up…
40. Sam Selman - St. Andrew’s Episcopal HS (TX)… 6-3, 160… R/L… FB: 88-89, hit 92… breaker: 70… signed with Vanderbilt…
41. Austin Woods – Texas, senior… 6-2, 190, L/L… academic All-Big 12… 2008: 27 G, 14 starts, 7-3, 4.43, 42K, 85.1 IP
42. Seth Maness – East Carolina – 5/18: 9-0, 3.99, 76K, 88.0 IP for season, named C-USA pitcher of the week…
43. Josh Spence – Arizona State – junior… as of 4/6/09: 6-0, 1.17, 72-16 K/BB in 54 IP… velocity not as high as scouts like… fastball maxes out at 86… Tom Glavine type… through 4/23: 8-0, 1.56, 89K, 69 IP… was drafted in 25th round of the 2008 draft by Arizona… thru 5/6: 2.23 in 75.1IP… 5/11: out for the rest of the season with a tendon strain in his pitching arm.
44. Ian Thomas – VCU – named CAA pitcher of the month 4/20:
45. Brian Johnson – Cocoa Beach HS (FL)…6-4, 220 L/L
46. Brian Morgado – Tennessee – 6-3, 205, L/L
47. Paul Applebee – UC Riverside
48. Mike Belfore – Boston College…
49. Kent Emmanuel – Woodstock HS…
50. Jordan Cooper – Farragut HS…
51. Buddy Baumann – Missouri State…
52. Donnie Joseph – Houston…
53. Lance Hoge – Kansas State…
54. John Pokomy – Kent State…
Remember... I'll be hosting a 2-day IGT on the draft at http://www.flushinguniversity.com/.
Will try and update OF, C, 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B between now and midnight
Mack
1. Tyler Matzek - Capistrano Valley HS (California) senior… 6-3, 185… L/L… 18 years old… threw no-hiiter March 20… fastball in 89-92 range… has hit 94… fastball drops to 86-89 in the stretch… mid-70s curve… nice slider averages 82… and change… throws ¾ arm angle… most consider him the top lefty in the draft… 2009: threw no-hitter March 20… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #3 (top LHP on list) - Clean mechanics, good control, deep pitch repitroire, projection and polish…so everything age: 18.5… 5/21: Jonathan Mayo’s Top 10 picks for the draft: - 39 (#2 LHP on list) - 9. Detroit Tigers: Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS, Mission Viejo, Calif. - The Tigers are liable to do anything and will take whoever they feel is the best player available, period. That often means they are linked with whatever wild cards there are in a Draft. This time, that could mean Tate, it could mean Scheppers, or it could mean Turner. Instead, for this first week, we'll go with the prep lefty from SoCal in Matzek, who's dazzled at times with his great stuff but has been a little enigmatic with consistently bringing it to the table… 5/23 from BA: While on the topic of high school lefties, the only one who's rated ahead of Purke, talent-wise, is Tyler Matzek out in Southern California. He's been at or near the top of Draft lists from the get-go and he's certainly showed top-of-the-Draft ability on the mound… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 6) San Fransisco Giants - Tyler Matzek, LHP Capistrano Valley High School (CA) You can arrange the top five or six high school pitchers in just about any order you want this year. I view Matzek as the best. His combination of terrific mechanics, advanced control, and multiple breaking balls give him the highest floor of any prep hurler in this draft. The Giants have had great success in recent years developing pitchers, and despite their anemic offensive, you can never have enough pitching. Ideally the Giants would prefer to bolster their offense, but there doesn't look to be good offensive value at this point in the draft. Should Donavan Tate still be on the board, he's a real possibility. Rich Poythress is an outside possibility but would be a bit of a stretch at number six. 5/26 from ScoutingBook: The kind of big, strong lefthanders that scouts fall in love with, the six-foot-six Matzek not only brings overpowering heat from the left side but flusters hitters with three different offspeed pitches to boot. A king-sized ace in the making, Matzek could be the anchor of many Major League teams in the near future. If he lands with an organization with good pitching development, watch out: he'll be dazzling big leaguers sooner rather than later.
2. Mike Minor - Vanderbilt junior… 6-4, 210… has allowed only five extra-base hits in 32 innings through March 2009… previously drafted in 2006 (13th round) by Tampa Bay… 200: 103.0 IP, 8.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9… has pitched in low 90s, topping out at 94… change-up, curve, and slider… numbers through 4-7-09: 2-3, 3.55, 43K, 12BB, 46.0 IP… pressing. Velocity down… has allowed only 7 exra-baed hits in 46 innings thru 4-7… From John Sickles: Was getting attention pre-season as a top lefty in the draft, but has likely fallen behind Brouthers. Minor is 4-4, 3.93 with a 79/24 K/BB in 73 innings, 74 hits allowed, very good numbers within the Vanderbilt context, though not exceptional. Listed at 6-4, 195, he has an 88-92 MPH fastball, a curve, slider, and changeup, and seems like a safe pick that could be the second choice for a lot of teams in the second half of the round…. From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #17 (#4 LHP on list) -polished lefty with good mechanics, command, low-90's FB with terrific changeup … age: 21.4… 5/21: Jonathan Mayo’s Top 10 picks for the draft: - 3. (top LHP on list) - San Diego Padres: Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt - Traditionally, the Padres have been fairly college-heavy, at least early in Drafts, and the thinking here is they'll go that route again. The pick for now is the Vandy southpaw with a very good track record, but a guy like Crow could fit as well. If the M's don't take Ackley, the Padres very well could. That being said, there is some talk going on in the organization about going in a different direction. Specifically, that's toolsy outfielder Donavan Tate, who has tremendous athletic talent and a commitment to play football and baseball at North Carolina… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 10) Washington Nationals - Mike Minor, LHP Vanderbilt The Nationals will likely look to cut some sort of deal with the 10 pick. Some may overblow the need to go below-slot with this pick. The Nationals offered Mark Teixeira more money than the Yankees did last winter and saved cash in the draft last year by not signing Crow. GM Mike Rizzo recently told BA's Jim Callis, "We do see this draft as one where the guy we take with the No. 10 pick might be No. 25 on someone else’s board," Rizzo said. "But if we take, say, Chad Jenkins or [California outfielder] Brett Jackson or whoever, it’s because we think he’s the 10th-best guy in the draft." If you think Chad Jenkins or Brett Jackson is the 10th-best prospect, you should have your head examined. Mike Minor could be affordable and represents much better value than someone like Jackson or Jenkins.
3. Chad James - Bishop Verot HS, Fort Myers, Fla. Strong, pro body indicates his 88-90 mph fastball has room to grow… moving up the charts… now mid-90s… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #19 (#5 LHP on list) - Clean mechanics, good arm strength, FB hits 95, big time curve, usable slider and change… age: 18.3… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 17) Arizona Diamondbacks - Chad James, LHP Yukon HS (OK)The last time Arizona took a four-pitch prep lefty from Oklahoma, his name was Brett Anderson. James has drawn several comps to Anderson, but a part of that is just geography. With a fastball he runs up to 95 mph, a plus (or better) curveball, solid change and slider, good mechanics and control, James has just about everything you want out of a young pitcher.
4. Tyler Skaggs - Santa Monica (Calif.) HS… 6-5, 190… many project as high as Matzek… high 80s fastball… 12-6 curve in the 60s… projectable frame… coachable… good mound poise… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #28 (#6 LHP on list) -Tall and skinny lefty with big slow curve, good mechanics, fastball works in low-90's – age: 17.8… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 22) Minnesota Twins - Tyler Skaggs, LHP Santa Monica HS (CA) The Twins are as likely as any team to pick a prodigious high school talent and Skaggs, a polished lefty with good command and a plus curveball, fits their mold well. A speedy outfielder is certainly a possibility, Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks are both speedsters and the Twins last two first round picks, but Skaggs would represent much better value with the 22nd pick. Jiovanni Mier, a high school shortstop, is a real possibility with this pick. Mier is the shortstop most likely to be a plus defender in this draft and has a pretty solid bat.
5. James Paxton - (up from 8th) - Kentucky… dominated SEC… 37.9% K 4.8% BB… born in Canada… 6-4, 210… 97 mph fastball, slurve, changeup… 4-0, 3.30, 47K/6BB/30.0 IP through March 2009… Through 3-25-09, Paxton is 4-0, 3.30 with 47 strikeouts and six walks in 30 innings. On March 20, he out-dueled Vanderbilt lefthander Mike Minor, striking out 10 in 6.2 innings… roughed up lately, but still touching 97 mph… From John Sickles: Paxton has an unattractive 5.40 ERA, but this is around average for his context, and his other numbers are sharp: 97/17 K/BB in 65 innings, 68 hits allowed, giving him K/IP, K/BB, and H/IP marks that are all very strong for the context in which he's pitching. His biggest weakness is a high home run rate, with 10 dingers given up. Paxton is 6-4, 215 and has been clocked as high as 95 MPH. He's from Canada and is a bit raw compared to some other college pitchers, but has a very high ceiling. He could go anywhere in the first or second round… for season: 5-2, 5.30, 109K, 20BB, 73.0IP… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #11 (#3 LHP on list) - 6-foot-4 lefty with plus, plus velocity , dominating SEC (34.0% K 5.9% BB), long arm action… age: 20.5… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 11) Colorado Rockies - James Paxton, LHP University of Kentucky The Rockies have gone surprisingly college-heavy in recent years, not taking a high school player last year until the 14th round. Even post-humidor, Coors Field is a tough place to pitch and the Rockies need pitchers who can get outs on their own. Paxton keeps the ball out of play, by striking everyone out. He could go much higher, but shouldn't last past Colorado with this pick.
6. Matt Purke - (down from 3rd) - Klein (Texas) HS… 6-3, 170, L/L… 89-92 mph fastball, tops off at 95… curve break at 78… slider in the 90 range… 2-7 74-77 changeup… 18 years old… needs some meat on his bones… In October 2008, Baseball America had Purke as the 5th overall pick in the draft… BA ranks him as the 3rd top high school prospect this year… considered by some as the 2nd top arm in the draft… March ’09: fastball now topping at 97. Slender frame… throws from a low ¾ delivery… high character kid… ***possible signing problems***… From Lincoln Hamilton’s Top 30 draftees… #8 (#2 LHP on list) - Matt Purke - Top Texas hurler, 6'3" hit 94 mph w/ sink in showcases, plus SL and solid change… age: 18.8 … 5/23: BA: Texas high school lefty Matthew Purke appears to be falling. Long considered to be one of the better high school arms in the class based on ability, his name has not been mentioned as much in the top third of the first round as rumors spread about a high bonus demand. But that might not be the only reason Purke's stock is slipping. The young southpaw last pitched in a game on May 1. He last worked out, throwing a bullpen, on May 7… 18) Florida Marlins - Matt Purke, LHP Klien HS (TX) The only thing that would prevent this pick from happening is money. Purke has been rumored to want top 10 cash and Florida, generally, doesn't go over slot. However, I can just about guarantee you that this pick will be a high school player, most likely a pitcher. Purke has the big frame, strong arm, and upside the Marlins love.
7. Aaron Miller – Baylor - 5-28 from MLBBonusBaby: - 48. Los Angeles (AL) – Aaron Miller, LHP, Baylor – I’ve decided to never again refer to Miller as a hitter, only thinking of him as a lefty collegiate pitcher. He’s risen up draft boards this Spring, and with Brooks Raley’s late season collapse, Miller might have secured the top spot for collegiate two-way players. Previously: #67.
8. Brooks Raley - (down from 5th) - Texas A&M… 6-3, 185, L/L, sophomore… 2008: 2nd team freshman All-American selection… 7-2, 4.76 in 18 games… moving up the charts… as of 4/23: Over 62 1/3 IP, he's allowed only 40 hits (.189 opponents' batting average) and 16 walks while striking out 65. Also an outfielder, he's leading the team with a .354 average and 21 steals… 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K on 4/25… From John Sickles: Raley is having a statistically dominant season, going 7-1, 1.96 with an 84/19 K/BB in 78 innings, 51 hits allowed. He's also playing great as an outfielder, hitting .318/.443/.459 with 33 walks and 21 steals in 157 at-bats, demonstrating athleticism though scouts prefer him on the mound. His fastball is average at 87-89 MPH, but his curveball, slider, and changeup are all solid, and his control is very good. His athleticism and command should help him stay healthy. His lack of a plus fastball, as well as his sophomore status and resultant leverage, make it very unclear where he will fall on draft day… 5/6: 1.96 RRA in 78 IP… 5/6: Baseball Draft Report has him as 3rd LHP drafted…
9. Rex Brothers –- Lipscomp – 6-1, 205… – been skyrocking up mock drafts… fastball 93-94 range, touching 96… slider at 86-88… 15 scouting directors in stands for April 3rd game vs. Kennesaw State/prospect Kyle Heckathorn… 12Ks… thru 4/23: 4-4, 2.37, 94K, 29BB, 65.0 IP… 4/30: 4-5, 3.01, only 51 hits in 68.2 IP, 101Ks, 35 BB… From John Sickles: Brouthers is moving rapidly up draft lists. He has 3.01 ERA with a 101/35 K/BB in 69 innings this spring, 51 hits allowed, demonstrating an exceptional K/P ratio. He's dominating with excellent stuff, hitting 94-96 MPH with the heater and using a nasty slider. His changeup needs work and his command is still sloppy, but his ceiling is very impressive and he could be the first college lefty drafted…. 5/17: Second only to Strasburg with 120 strikeouts this year… May 25th ProjectProspect’s mock draft: 29) New York Yankees - Rex Brothers, LHP Lipscomb - With recent draft picks like Joba Chamberlin, Andrew Brackman and Gerrit Cole, I feel safe in predicting that the Yankees will go for a pitcher with an electric arm early in the draft. Brothers has a mid-90's fastball and a slider that is already a plus pitch, making him an excellent target for the Yankees. A poorly developed third pitch and below-average command mean there is a reasonable chance Brothers ends up as a reliever, but maybe then we could end all of this Joba to the pen nonsense.
10. Andrew Oliver - Oklahoma State… 6-3, 212… L/L… 28.9%K; however. 6.67 ERA through March 2009 this season… a native of Vermilion, Ohio… sophomore season: 7-2 in 15 games… 2.20, 96K/98.1 IP… 2008: earned 1st team All-Big 12… 2nd team All-American by Rivals,com… 2-20 ERA… pitched for Team USA… In October 2008, Baseball America had him as the 11th overall pick in the draft… as of 4/6/09: has allowed 13 doubles and five home runs, resulting in a 5.91 ERA… not afraid ti come inside to right handed hitters… fastball touches 95… velocity maintained in late innings… must work on secondary pitches… 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 10 K on 4.25… From John Sickles: Rated as the top college lefty by some sources pre-season, due to his combination of above average stuff with sharp command, Oliver has had a disappointing spring, going 5-4, 4.96 with a 75/28 K/BB in 62 innings, 62 hits allowed. His K/IP and H/IP marks are actually not bad, but he's lacked consistency. His stock is down, but as long as there are no health concerns, someone could still take a shot on him late in the first round. Some theorize that Oliver has been knocked a bit off-kilter emotionally by the circumstances regarding the NCAA lawsuit, and will perform better once in pro ball… end of season: 5-6, 4.83, 14 starts, 90K, 78.1 IP… from Sickles 5/25: 23. Chicago (AL) - Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State - Oliver's still a college lefty with upside, and that's all it takes for the White Sox to pick someone. He might need more time to get through the minors than your typical college pick. Previously: #17.
12. Chris Rusin - Kentucky… senior… 6-2, 190… L/L… 2009 Wallace Preseason Watch List… 2008 First-Team All-SEC (coaches)… drafted in the 23rd round of the 2008 draft by the Athletics… very little support in2008, but still turned a 6-3, 3.33 ERA…. Good fastball and excellent command of breaking ball
13. Tyler Lyons – Oklahoma State… 6-2, 207… S/L… 2nd team all-Big 12… 12 wins in 2008… 7-1, 2.99 in conference… on Team USA… excellent curve… fastball command
14. Justin Marks – - Louisville… junior… 6-3/195… L/L… 2009 Brooks Wallace Watch List… 2009 Preseason BIG EAST Pitcher of the Year… 2007 PING! Baseball All-American… 2007 BIG EAST Pitcher of the Week (4/30)… 2007 Rivals National Freshman of the Week (4/30)… 2008: named first team All-BIG EAST and second team All-America by PING...invited to compete at the 2008 USA Baseball National Team camp… Posted a 9-2 record with a 2.37 ERA in 91.0 innings, limiting opponents to a .220 average… 5/18: named Big East pitcher of the week: 27 career wins, 282 Ks, 2.82
15. David Holmberg - (up from 26th) - Port Charlotte HS… 6-4, 215… #31 in the state of Florida according to Prospectswire.com… #51 on Baseball America's list of Top 100 High School Prospects… led the state last season with 114 strikeouts and was 6-1 with a 0.70 ERA… over the last four games of the season, struck out 58 in 29 innings with a personal-best of 16 against Southeast… 5/15 from Sickles mock: 48. Los Angeles (AL) - David Holmberg, LHP, Port Charlotte HS (FL) - When looking for a prep pitcher with good upside, look no farther than Florida. Holmberg's had a solid senior season, neither helping nor hurting his draft stock. Previously: #56.
16. Beau Wright - Los Alamitos HS; Los Alamitos, CA. 6′2, 205… 89-92 fastball… big curve… fastball in the low 90s… big breaking ball… does not have third pitch developed…
17. Ian Krol – Nequea Valley HS (Ill.)… 6-1, 180… high 80s sinker… good curve… suspended for season so off he goes..
18. Daniel Bibona – UC Irvine…5-11, 165… mid-80s fastball… flawless control… compared to Tom Glavine… thru 5/6: 2.13 ERA…
19. Garrett Hughes - La Costa Canyon H.S,… 6-7, 235… Names to Underarmour all-American team… 2008 high school season: 6-1, 77K66.0 IP, no hitter…
20. Neal Davis - Virginia… 6-6, 210… L/L… junior… relief pitcher… 2008: 1.58… averaged 9.7 Ks per 9IP… ALL-ACC team…
21. Steven Rodriquez - Gulliver Prep (FL)… 6-2, 210… named to underarmour All-American team… “Paco”… #7 LHP in the state of Florida according to Prospectswire.com... member of the 2007 U-16 USA National Team …
22. Kraig Sitton - Oregon State… 6-5, 190, L/L, draft eligible sophomore… was 1-3, 4.41 this summer for Spokane/WCCBL… 2008: 22 G, 2-0, 3.91, 23 Ks
23. Matt Way - Washington State… 6-2, 182, L/L, senior… 2008: 18 appearances, 5 starts… 4.01 ERA…
24. Nick Kirk - Northern Iowa… 6-1/200… B/T… senior… 2008: 10 G, 9 starts… 3.84, 4-7… threw no-hitter on March 28 vs. Evansville
25. Matt Packer – Virginia… 6-0, 200… R/L… junior… led the NCAA with the lowest ERA, 1.14… 25 appearances, with 4 starts… opposing teams only hit .202
26. Dallas Keuchel - Arkansas… 6-3, 200, Junior, L/L… named allstar this summer in Cape Cod League… 2008: 4-3, 4.58, 74.2 IP, 61 K
27. Nick Hernandez - Tennessee… junior… 6-4/200… L/L… 2008: 14 G, 13 starts… 82.2 IP, K:BB 7.0…
28. Miers Quigley - Alabama… was drafted in the 36th round of the 2008 draft by the Twins… 2008: 5-4, 5.58 ERA in 16 games (12 starts). 3-year college record: 10-15, 5.03.
29. Robbie Erlin – Scotts Valley HS (CA)… 5-11, 160… R/L… tossed no-hitter week 5/4… FB touches 91… solid curve 70-73… good command… reminds one of Billy Wagner… one of best deliveries for a high schooler… projected out of the pen
30. Travis Smink - Virginia Military… 2008: 6-1, 1.88, 1.059 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9, 7/1 K/9, in 62.1 IP… all-league first team pick
31. Patrick Schuster – Mitchell H.S. (FL) – threw 3rd consecutive no-hitter on April 12… 8-0, 0.66 through 4/15… committed to Florida. This is getting a little ridiculous.. he threw his 4th consecutive no-hitter on 4/20…
32. Joe Serafin - Vermont… named to the 2009 Brooks Wallace Player of the Year Award Preseason Watch List ... picked up a save in a 4-3 win over Team USA in June of 2007 striking out five and walking one in three innings ...
33. Jordan John - Calallen HS… 6-3, 195, R/L… signed with Oklahoma… 85-87 fastball… 76 change-up…
34. Jeff Dennis - Binghamton… 6-6, 215, senior… 2008: 4-5, 3.97 in 14 starts… 62K/81.2IP… .203 OBA…
35. Chris Dwyer – Clemson… From MiLB 5/18: The draft-eligible freshman has some intriguing stuff, but it hasn't always led to good results in his first college season. Against Maryland, he went five innings, allowing four runs (three earned) on six hits and a walk while striking out six. For the year, he's 4-4 with a 5.03 ERA. Over 68 innings, he's given up 60 hits and 27 walks while striking out 71
36. Brendan Lafferty - UCLA… 6-5, 215, R/L… played the summer for Mankato in the Northwoods League… went 4-1, 3.93… 2008: 33 relief appearances… 4-3, 3-74, 56K/67.1 IP.
37. Riley Boening - Texas… 6-3, 210… redshirted sophomore in 2008: academic all-Big12… 13 games, 10 starts, 3-1, 6.34
38. Wes Musick - Houston…. 6-0, 190, L/L, junior…
39. Tyler Kehrer - Eastern Illinois - through 3/09: 2-1, 4.99, 37K/31.0 IP… fastball in 90-93 range… slider and change-up…
40. Sam Selman - St. Andrew’s Episcopal HS (TX)… 6-3, 160… R/L… FB: 88-89, hit 92… breaker: 70… signed with Vanderbilt…
41. Austin Woods – Texas, senior… 6-2, 190, L/L… academic All-Big 12… 2008: 27 G, 14 starts, 7-3, 4.43, 42K, 85.1 IP
42. Seth Maness – East Carolina – 5/18: 9-0, 3.99, 76K, 88.0 IP for season, named C-USA pitcher of the week…
43. Josh Spence – Arizona State – junior… as of 4/6/09: 6-0, 1.17, 72-16 K/BB in 54 IP… velocity not as high as scouts like… fastball maxes out at 86… Tom Glavine type… through 4/23: 8-0, 1.56, 89K, 69 IP… was drafted in 25th round of the 2008 draft by Arizona… thru 5/6: 2.23 in 75.1IP… 5/11: out for the rest of the season with a tendon strain in his pitching arm.
44. Ian Thomas – VCU – named CAA pitcher of the month 4/20:
45. Brian Johnson – Cocoa Beach HS (FL)…6-4, 220 L/L
46. Brian Morgado – Tennessee – 6-3, 205, L/L
47. Paul Applebee – UC Riverside
48. Mike Belfore – Boston College…
49. Kent Emmanuel – Woodstock HS…
50. Jordan Cooper – Farragut HS…
51. Buddy Baumann – Missouri State…
52. Donnie Joseph – Houston…
53. Lance Hoge – Kansas State…
54. John Pokomy – Kent State…
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