The Keepers - #6 - SP - Brad Holt

6. Brad Holt – SP –

The Mets picked Holt in the supplemental portion of the 1st round in the 2008 draft. College stats: 3.18 ERA, 11-1, 93.1 IP, 78 H, 36 BB, 95 K, .225 BAA, 8 HR allowed

Comments by Baseball America before draft day: With an impressive performance, Holt could vault himself into position to be a back of the first-round or early supplemental selection. A team such as the Mets with multiple picks in the first 50 could be especially interested in a guy like Holt. Mets scouting director Rudy Terrasas is known for liking pitchers with pure arm strength such as Holt, and with picks at 18, 22 and 33, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mets take the Seahawks righthander. This weekend will not be the first time that Terrasas and his staff have seen Holt—as the scouting director, along with multiple other members of his staff, was in attendance to witness Holt pitch eight innings against Old Dominion. Holt struck out 11 and only allowed one earned run in the outing. The Brewers are another team with three selections in the first 35 picks that could be especially interested in Holt.

Also from Baseball America: His fastball has improved since arriving in Wilmington and now sits between 92-94 mph, touching 96… He is able to maintain his velocity deep into games. [He has] vastly improved command. Holt at 6-foot-4, 195 pounds, has a perfect pro body with a clean delivery and a first-round arm… The only thing holding him back is the lack of a usable secondary pitch…. Even though his secondary stuff is in need of refinement, teams will not walk away from the pro body, strong arm and life on the fastball.

From Keith Law: Ultimate Role: Setup man Summary: Holt shows consistent arm strength and holds it through his starts as well as any starter in this draft, sitting 93-96 mph every week from his first inning to his last. The velocity is easy; the ball comes out of his arm well and has good downhill plane and some life to it. He pitches almost exclusively off his fastball, throwing offspeed stuff less than 25 percent of the time. His curveball, which has a short downward break and moderately tight rotation, is his best secondary pitch; it could become an average offering, but it's a one-plane pitch. He has a changeup, but he guides this mediocre offering to the plate. He takes a long stride forward off the mound, holding his velocity even from the stretch when he doesn't stay over the rubber at all, and has just a little bit of violence at the end when his head snaps slightly. If he had a better changeup or could handle a splitter -- his arm slot might be too low for it -- he'd have a chance to be a back-end starter. But as a one-and-a-half-pitch pitcher, he's more likely to work in the bullpen when he reaches the majors.

Holt pitched the day before the draft… threw 149 pitches and was clocked at 94 in the 9th inning.

In June 2008, BA did a post-draft adjustment of their top 10 Mets prospects and Holt was ranked #8, with the comments: “8. Brad Holt, rhp - 2008 supplemental first-rounder can touch 96 mph, needs a reliable second pitch.”

In July 2008, From The Hardball Times: Brad Holt – RHP - Holt does a really good job loading his arm horizontally toward first base. By loading his arm this way, Holt is "scap loading." I've talked about scap loading before, but if you haven't heard the term, here is a semi-detailed definition: Scap loading is the horizontal loading of the arm. By loading the arm horizontally, the pitcher almost seems as if he is trying to touch his throwing elbow to the mid-point of his back. By carrying out this action, the pitcher creates tension in all the elastic muscles and tendons of the shoulder, and if done efficiently, the shoulder unloads aggressively toward home plate due to these elastic muscles being stretched and then released like a rubber band you let go after stretching.

The end product is a high-velocity fastball, which is exactly what Holt possesses. Holt's fastball is very lively, reaching up to 95, and it gets on the batter quick. It seems to pick up an extra gear just before it reaches home plate. My opinion is that he even has some velocity left in the tank, which could be tapped either through mechanics (like getting his hips moving a little earlier toward home plate) or by filling out his projectable frame.

In 2008, Holt was spot on for Brooklyn, going 5-3, 1.87 in 14 starts. He also struck out 96 batters in 72.1 IP. Holt won the Sterling Award as the the top Met player for the 2008 Brooklyn team.

September 2008: Brooklyn pitching coach Hector Berrios on: Brad Holt: “Holt has a power arm. He hit 100 miles per hour on the radar gun in Aberdeen and it was the first time I saw it live. That was impressive. We had a report on him that he threw 147 fastballs out of 152 pitches in a start in college. In the beginning, he told me, ‘I don’t even know what I throw.’ I told him, just throw whatever you have and we’ll take it from there. It turns out he has a power curve, 79-81 miles per hour with a big break. He also started to incorporate his change up. He’s very athletic and he’s constantly learning. He’s got a world of talent and with that type of power, especially considering how far he’s come with his secondary pitches in such a short amount of time, the sky is the limit. I think in two or three years, he’ll be a guy on the front end of the Mets rotation.”

In September, Patrick Hickey wrote on: Brad Holt- His secondary pitches came such a long way during the season and he proved he’s much more than a fastball pitcher. His curve ball has the potential to be a devastating pitch as well and his changeup needs some work, but is progressing steadily. As far as his potential goes, I see him as someone who could round out the last two spots of a starting rotation or be an excellent setup man or reliever, kind of like an old New York favorite, Dave Righetti. His fun-loving, yet professional attitude with the media and in the clubhouse could also make him a fan-favorite in a jiffy once he gets to Brooklyn. Final grade- A+

In February 2009, MYOB write: Brad Holt RHP - Brad signed for a little over $1 million and is a supplemental first rounder for the Braves signing Tom Glavine. He throws in the mid-90s and has good command of his fastball. Brad led the NY Penn league in ERA at 1.87 in 14 starts, striking out 96 hitters in just over 72 innings pitched. He only gave up 43 hits, translating to an opponent average of .171. All this success without a secondary pitch. If he is going to have success as he advances Brad will need to find a second and third offering, otherwise he can replace K-Rod as the closer. He’s working on a slider and change.

In February 2009, Toby Hyde wrote: Holt has both the highest ceiling, and the best downside projection among Mets pitching prospects. He has the best fastball in the system with a great pitcher’s build and clean, easy mechanics. In college, he moved from the third-base side of the rubber to the first, which allowed him to land more online to home plate, rather than closed and snap his hips through the pitch more effectively. The result of the change by 2008, was a legitimate mid-90s fastball that he threw 93-95 mph that exploded on hitters out of Holt’s hand. Moreover, the plus, or perhaps plus-plus heater played up thanks to fine command. A detractor might complain about Holt that he has only one plus pitch. That detractor’s criticism would be entirely justified. On the other hand, Holt has made terrific progress with his breaking ball, tightening up a slurvy offering from college into a tight, hard curveball, that at times, flashes plus potential. A scout who had seen him as an amateur, and then repeatedly in the New York Penn League, was left shaking his head, noting that every time he saw Holt as a professional, he made strides with his breaking ball. Holt rarely threw his below average changeup in the NYP League. He did not need it against less advanced hitters, although he has expressed a desire to improve the pitch. Holt’s progress with his breaking stuff will dictate whether he becomes a frontline starter. Even if he struggles with his changeup, his fastball will take him to some kind of big league bullpen role, where he could excel. 2008: Holt had a monster debut in Brooklyn, easily outshining the two gentlemen, Ike Davis and Reese Havens, the Mets picked ahead of him in the 2008 draft. Holt led the circuit in ERA and strikeouts while landing second in WHIP (1.05) behind teammate Chris Schwinden. Holt reached double figures in strikeouts four times, including a 14 punch-out performance on July 24th, that tied a Cyclones single-game record. Holt worked deep into games, throwing five innings or more in five of his last six contests. Projected 2009 Start: St. Lucie rotation

In March 2009, Rotoworld ranked the Mets Top 10 Prospect: Holt, the 33rd overall selection in the 2008 draft, overmatched New York-Penn League hitters in his debut. Of course, that's exactly what should have happened. The UNC Wilimington product throws in the mid-90s with regularity. The rest of his arsenal, though, needs serious work. He's inconsistent with a slurvy slider and incapable of fooling hitters with his changeup. The Mets will work with him to refine his secondary pitches this year. If he doesn't make as much progress as hoped, he could find himself on the verge of a switch to the pen at this time next year.

9-9-9 From www.hardballtimes.com: - Taken in the first supplemental round in the 2008 draft, Holt, a 6'4 righty out of UNC-Wilimgton, quickly impressed in his pro debut. After posting a 2.62 FIP for Brooklyn last year, Holt struck out 54 batters in 43.1 innings for St.Lucie in 2009 before being called up to Binghamton. However, his run of great pitching ended there. He only struck out 45 in 58 innings and walked 23 while giving up nine homers, leading to a 5.01 FIP. Holt is a power pitcher who has to rely on his plus fastball, so when he's not striking out guys at a good enough rate it could lead to problems. However, he was hampered by an ankle injury, so we'll see if he can bounce back in Binghamton in 2010.

Forecast:

Holt did not have a great year for a top prospect, but I'm reminded of a conversation I had with pitching instructor Rick Waits last year during spring training. 2009 was a year where Holt was asked to develop new pitches that would compliment what he already threw, and, in many cases, the only way of doing that is to use those new pitches in a game. There are very few mior leaguers that master a new pitch right out of the box, so I look for Holt to start off once again at AA, and dominate this time.