Normally, at this point in the pre-season, I tell you that the Mets are going to finish in third place. At least, that’s what I have done for the past three seasons.
I’m not going to do that this season.
Instead, I’m going to make some individual predictions you can all hang me with at this time next year.
My first impression about this spring training is the lack of talent shared by the ball players that competed for the 20-25th spots on the active roster. I spent most of March thinking I was writing about a small-market team, waiting for final cut week, so “my” team can pick up some decent players. This just isn’t supposed to happen in New York.
My second impression was how much talent separates the core of this team (David Wright, Jose Reyes, Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, and Francisco Rodriquez) from the rest of the staff. It really is two completely different teams, something you also usually see on a small-market team. Five or six great players followed by twenty minimum salary guys.
The difference here is the fact that many of the largest salaries on this team aren’t the core players.
They knew who they were they knew their role, the starters started and the subs concentrated on improving that role.
That feeling the spring had been replaced with the majority of this team having no idea where they stand with the organization, what team they will play for in 2010, or, in some cases, what position. I lost count at how many first basemen and catchers were competing against each other.
That being said, the division has also become stronger for two different reasons. The Florida Marlins continue to prove they can draft better than most teams in the league, and the Philadelphia Phillies have become one of the hot teams that free agents want to play for. The Mets don’t own the role anymore, due to a tremendous amount of over-exposed mismanagements by the front office. Free agents that want to win the World Series don’t believe any longer that the road to victory goes through Willets Point. And, they won’t believe it until things change in the board room, not the playing field.
So, with those thoughts up front, you probably have already come to the conclusion that I don’t have to predict this team missing the playoffs for another year. What I can predict is a few things about this team.
1. I predict that attendance will continue to drop throughout the season, putting tremendous pressure on the Board of Directors to take this team in another direction.
2. I predict that the economy will slowly begin to recover, which will increase the value of businesses throughout the country; however, the Mets will not benefit by this due to the fact that values of successful businesses are based on cash flow multiples of profit, not loss.
3. I predict that the Mets will be more than ten games out of first place by the all-star break, creating a situation where someone will be thrown under the bus. My guess would be Dan Warthen.
4. I predict that Jeff Wilpon and Minaya will attempt to save the season, similar to the move made a few years ago for both Kris Benson and the wrong Zambrano. The Mets will trade three or four of their top-shelf prospects for an SP that will become available from one of the small market teams that will begin to clear payroll in May.
5. I predict the move will not turn around a bad season, attendance will continue to decline, and Wilpon will add both Minaya and Jerry Manuel to the mess under the bus.
7. I predict Carlos Beltran will also ask the team to trade him, but there will be no takers for an $18.5mil aging center fielder who played the entire 2010 season with a multiple of injuries that reflected his age.
8. I predict the season will end with dissension in the locker room over the lack of quality pitching, coupled with the depletion of top prospects.
9. I predict that the pressure will be too great for the Wilpon family to continue to either own or operate this team and the decision will be to remove Jeff and replace him with a non-family member.
10. And lastly, since I believe that the decision not to sell the team was wrong, the team will begin a long spiral of defeat and obscurity that will not be turned around until there is new ownership at the top, and new management at all levels of the organization.
See… I told you I wasn’t going to predict third place.
It's #4 that I fear the most, because I've lived through it already and dread the thought of doing so again.
ReplyDeleteJeff Wilpon is an active detriment to this organization. The man is a menace. Until the old man wises up and puts Jeffy on a boat to permanently look after their business interests in the Cayman Islands, this franchise will continue to flounder.
You're spot on with Jeff, but you're being a bit harsh, Mack. The only uncertainty really revolves around the pen and first base and that's normal when there's competition. Murphy has been annointed, but he's not hitting well. Saw him drive off in his 5 yr old Honda from Lucy and the kid looks stressed. Otherwise I think the guys know what's expected and their role. They are pros.
ReplyDeleteThe rotation is not ready beyond Johan. maine looked lackadasical to me during drills. Perez looked focused, talked with determination, but has been uneven. Pelfrey has not improved since last year, other than being thinner. Hopefully, Niese, Takahashi and even Figgy can step in if necessary. The pen is going to have to carry the load.
No way Jose or Beltran are going to look for a trade. he likes playing for the Mets. Beltran won't find a taker for a new $20m+ contract. They still have to prove they weren't real losers these past 3 years. I don't see mass unhappiness as they've been through worse before.
But Jeff, he's got to go as does Omar. It's a dysfunctional organization. Put Jeff in charge of redevelopment of Willets Point. Otherwise, no experienced baseball GM will come.
MMarvin
After today's Big Pelf turkey shoot, we are in trouble with this rotation. Rather than be pessimistic, we and the brain trust ought to look at what can be done to turn it around.
ReplyDeletePelfrey and to a slightly lesser extent, Maine and Perez are not showing they are big league pitchers right now. Igarashi as well. It's not that they don't have talent, its just that they aren't putting it together. Until they can show they can put it together. they should not pitch in the show.
I'd ask each of them to stay down in PSL and work with the coaching staff. That staff doesn't include Warthen. Get Ricky Bones, Al Jackson, Phil Regan to work with these guys. Pull a great coach out of retirement. They have to be confident they can throw strikes. Maybe they will respond like Trax did when he went down for a few turns to get straightened out. If they do get straightened out, the pitching coach that did it should go north with them. Warthen gets reassigned or released.
In the interim, we go with Johan, Figueroa, Niese and Takahashi. They have pitched better than these guys and can't be worse. The forgotten Elmer Dessens has continued to pitch well as he did last year. We don't need a fifth starter for a few weeks anyway. Man, it really stinks to even write this, but we have to be realistic. Until the 3 Musketeers get on track this is what we've got.
I'd also take another look at Pedro and Smoltz. I don't know what kind of shape they are in but, they know how to pitch. Omar has to look at the trade market as well.
These 3 are so bad that expecting them to suddenly become effective is wishful thinking. They need more work and they should not screw up the team or their heads trying to do it at the major league level.
What do you think, Mack?
Marvelous Marvin
it seems like your next prediction should be something like human extinction
ReplyDeleteAnon:
ReplyDeleteactually, you were pretty close to what I was going to write as #10.
It was something like "the earth's shell will crack like an uncooked egg and molted lava will cover the surface of the planet..."
MMarvin:
ReplyDeleteNice idea, but here's the problem...
there IS no starting itching past Santana
Itching? I think the fellas can handle itching. Pitching is another story.
ReplyDelete