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7/6/10

Trading Flores, Dumping Castillo, FA: Carl Crawford, FA: Carl Pavano... and Dontrelle Willis

Trading Flores:



Flores is one of the leading prospects in the Mets system, and if you believe Buster Olney’s reports he will be the centerpiece of a deal if the Mets pull the trigger on Cliff Lee. Flores is an 18-year-old shortstop in High-A whose promise lies mostly with the bat. Teams Interested: Seattle Mariners - What It Would Take: First the Mets need to find out if they truly are contenders by the end of July. If they are and remain near or at the top of the NL East, the pressure will be on to make a deal for Cliff Lee. The deal could happen simply because the Mets want it worse than anyone. In addition to Flores, however, the Mets must also fill out the rest of the deal with strong prospects. Right-hander Jenrry Mejia will likely be involved as well. - link



Dumping Castillo:


Will the Mets actually find a way to dump Castillo and his bloated salary before the end of the season? The front office probably hopes so. The Mets will likely be in the market for some middle infield help, but will surely take deal that allows them to jettison the maligned Castillo and the roughly $3 million he is owed for the second half of the season. - Teams Interested: TBD - What It Would Take: The Mets finding a team willing to bite the bullet on $3 million dollars in order to get a deal done that is mutually beneficial to both sides. - link









FA: Carl Crawford:


Crawford’s wOBA is near .390 and his ISO nearing a career high. It’s not being buoyed by an increased amount of homers, though, as every year since 2005 has been held as the perspective year for Crawford’s first 20 homer campaign. It still hasn’t happened and may never happen; he’s projected to finish with 14 this year. On the basepaths Crawford offers success through excellent conditioning and various moves. He’s not quite Kobe Bryant on the baseline, since he doesn’t have a move as effective as a jab step, but he’s so well-conditioned and able to differentiate between pickoff move and honest movement towards the plate that it’s generally to a perfect throw when Crawford is caught. - link






FA: Carl Pavano:


Carl Pavano’s type B ranking put the Twins in a win-win situation last year. An arbitration offer would either result in a supplemental draft choice or a low-risk, one year deal with a solid pitcher. Pavano was projected be roughly league average entering the season, but has posted a 3.88 FIP in the first half this year. ZiPS still only projects a 4.20 FIP going forward, but there’s reason to believe that he has recovered from the injuries that plagued his New York Yankees career and can continue to pitch at the level he’s established since joining the Twins in the middle of 2009. Pavano is anywhere between a 2-3.5 win pitcher going forward, and as such is likely worth whatever he would get in arbitration were he to accept. That seems unlikely given his success this season. If he were to decline, the return on their investment – Yohan Pino, currently with a 4.48 FIP in AAA – could be an excellent 2010 out of Pavano along with two high draft picks. That’s certainly better than most imagined when Pavano was acquired in a waiver deal last season. -
link


Dontrelle Willis:


The Diamondback designated Dontrelle Willis for assingment on Sunday. Getting release from a last place team probably means the end of Dontrelle’s career. His peak was fun while it lasted. He played with personality, was dangerous at the plate, and a joy to watch. We could use more pitchers like that. - link

2 comments:

  1. Flores and Mejia is too much for a Lee rental, IMO.

    While Lee certainly has peak value for the Mets (and, say, Twins) the value to the Mariner’s is not Lee per se, but the relative value of what they can get amongst the suitors.

    If the Twins top out at Ramos & Aaron Hicks (I’ve read the T’s expect Lee AND Arardsma for that) the Mets should be able to beat that with Thole + Flores OR Mejia. Heck, though Ramos > Thole, Nieuwenhuis > Hicks. Etc.

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  2. The rub here is...

    1. Lee keeps pitching great outings every 5 games and more teams send scouts... someone will offer more than the Mets have

    2. I hate rent-a-players... but, if you read the Wall Street Journal article on the financials of this team, they really are losing a ton of money. The only chance Wilpon has of keeping the team is a world series revenue... NOW...


    I don't thin he cares about who he trades... he needs to win now...

    I expect him to offer Thole, Mejia, and Flores for Lee, regardless whether or not it's just a rental.

    I don't like it... but, the Mets do not have the pitching to win this... you have already seen the best of Pelfrey, Dickey, and Taka... and Niese can't do much better either

    Mack

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