link - Johan Santana (sprained shoulder, ERD 10/4) - Santana is done for the 2010 season. The question is really the 2011 season. While the Mets fans gloom and doom it up like a Robert Pattinson fan on a shopping spree at MAC, there's an underlying question of how long Santana will actually be out. With a dearth of good comparables, I went to the experts at Kerlan-Jobe for some answers. Dr. Ralph Gambardella, explained the issue: The anterior capsule is the front lining of the shoulder joint which then attaches to the labrum and then to the bone. The capsule is torn with the labrum often with an acute traumatic shoulder dislocation. However, in baseball with repetitive throwing the anterior capsule can just gradually stretch out and eventually give a thrower pain and a feeling of weakness and a velocity loss. This repetitive microscopic tearing and stretching injury ultimately is what the thrower may describe as a “dead arm” The type of surgery performed is very similar to the open surgery pioneered by Dr. Frank Jobe that was performed on Orel Hersheiser in the '80s, but now with advances the same surgery can be done arthroscopically. However, the healing concepts are the same and therefore the rehabilitation can be very long to get back to high level throwing. Certainly 6-9 months is not unreasonable.
link - Changes will be made, as you know, and you can expect the first of a wave of announcements to come on Oct. 4 or Oct. 5, right after the season ends. This situation is evolving, so we'll update the forecast when necessary. But as of now, here's how this crucial offseason looks, with the understanding that Omar Minaya very likely will be reassigned and Jerry Manuel won't be back as manager. First, the new head of baseball operations is more likely to come from outside the organization. Don't place your bets on assistant general manager John Ricco or special assistant to the GM Wayne Krivsky.
link - Mike Pelfrey, next year's likely Opening Day starter and de facto staff ace, wants to return as pitching coach - and he is not alone among important members of the Mets' 2011 rotation."If it was up to me, I would bring him back," Pelfrey told the Daily News. "He's a very good communicator. I would love to see him back. I've already been through two (including former pitching coach Rick Peterson), and it would be nice to have the same guy back that you have a relationship with that you could continue to build on." R.A. Dickey, who has become a stabilizing force in the rotation, strongly agrees. "I really hope Dan stays," Dickey said. "I enjoy him very much."
link - Jenrry Meija RHP (Dom Rep) - He made the Mets out of spring training to be used out of the bullpen. While he pitched well, the Mets need his services more as a starter and he was sent back down to start. He battled arm soreness and now is back with the Mets in the starting rotation. His ERA was 3.25 as a reliever for the Mets and in two starts his ERA sits at 10.00. He had a 1.28 ERA in the minors.
link - Havens is by all accounts the future at the position for the Mets. He’s done some nice things, but it’s important to keep down expectations considering he hasn’t yet compiled more than 360 at-bats in a single year. Injuries have been a problem. Though his biggest sample – High A St. Lucie – doesn’t seem great at first blush (.252/.363/.431), the Florida State League is a notoriously tough league and he showed a nice eye at the plate (55 walks against 73 strikeouts in 353 at-bats). This year he really upped the flyball rate and the power before succumbing to injury yet again. The lack of at-bats make it hard to know exactly how special Havens is, but what he’s shown so far (12% career MiLB walk rate, .206 ISO) is enough to prove that he has the highest upside of this group. Most likely, the Mets start the season with something like Murphy and one of the better defenders (Arias, Tejada or Hernandez) splitting time while Havens proves his mettle and comes up later in the season, although this analysis assumes that the Mets can treat Castillo as a sunk cost and let him go, which is no sure thing given the Mets history. Act accordingly.
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