Hi Mack, love the site. I've done some math with this team, exactly as you constructed, except in my scenario, I offered arb to Pedro, and he accepted and received $4M, and I play K-rod and Castillo -- raising the total to 140M.
Also, if the Mets aren't allowed to drop K-Rod, why not try to repair that relationship and let the guy pitch? He might not be the guy he once was or even a decent human being, but he's still a very good reliever. Also, I really don't understand why Castillo wasn't playing every day when Ruben Tejada, (who is not great defensively at 2nd yet either) is struggling to get on base and probably should be at Buffalo learning how to do it? For much of the season the Mets were playing with two nearly automatic outs in their lineup. That's almost like playing with a pitcher and we're giving our opponent a DH.
Anyways, as much as I dread 2011 (unless we somehow get Yu and Bobby V) I'm still excited by all the possibilities in 2012. Keep up the good work (and try to hype our prospects a little more I'm sure a lot of baseball's interns keep up to date for their bosses)!
I think being excited about 2012 is a good approach to this team right now.
I'm not yet dreading 2011; in fact, I think it will be very exciting for a writer, maybe not a fan.
That being said... return Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran to 25+ HR seasons, up Ike Daivs' to the same, take away the grand slams and walk aways and... nah, I'm not going there yet.
First comes the GM, then the manager, then the coaches.
I expect the Mets to quietly jettison some minor leaguers in the next 30 days. This is the last time you may hear the names Fernando Nieve (filed for FA on Thursday), Ryota Igarashi (buyout of 2nd year on contract), Yhency Brazoban (FA), Chad Cordero (FA), Ryan Coultas, Sal Aguilar, Jack Egbert, Brain Valenzuela, Santiago Valdez, Julio Bello, Brian Bruney, Dan McDonald, Michael Johnson, Eddie Kunz, Carlos Muniz, John Lugan, Scott Shaw, Russ Adams, Hector Pellot, Alex Cintron, Luis Nieve, Andy Green, Jose Coronado, Richard Lucas, J R House, Sal Manriquez, Luke Montz, Jordan Abruzzo, Jorge Padilla, Jason Pridie, Juan Lagares, and Emmanuel Garcia.
Hi Mack, again, love the site. In my "math", I used WAR as a way to gauge runs created. (I regressed WAR on wins for 2010, which is small sample size but is much more conservative than other options). I don't like the RC stat which is the same exact thing but does not take into account variance in the coefficients year to year. Using last years stats, but replacing Bay and Beltran's numbers with their full season 2009 numbers, you end up with 86 wins -- but that is a somewhat conservative estimate. I used Castillo's 2010 year long stats, but replacing him with Tejada you end up with closer to 85 -- not a big difference. However, this supposes that everyone, including Santana is healthy, and no one on the Mets pitching staff regresses. Since I believe this not to be the case, as it is now, I think the Mets probably hover around .500, if luck evens out (Bay/Beltran return to form, but Pelfrey/Niese/Dickey + bullpen regress). However, if we get really lucky, the playoffs are not out of the question, so I agree 2011 could be exciting -- just not likely in my opinion. The players most responsible for the good will remain with the Mets in 2012, however, leaving me very excited, because of the additional $50M in payroll. The reason why I dread 2011 is because of lots of things could derail 2012, e.g. trading prospects for short-term solutions, adding payroll for no good reason, and/or seeing some key rotation guys completely regress. Still a smart GM could do lots of really unpopular things in 2011 and get away with it in his honeymoon year -- so there is hope. Trading Ike for a good youngish right fielder or SP would be at the top of my todo list... Bautista? Markakis? Choo? Greinke? The worst thing for the 2012-2015 Mets may even be being a playoff team in 2011 and making moves for the sake of a pennant race.
ReplyDeleteI will answer this on the weekend...
ReplyDeleteBTW Dave, I'm looking to add a saber dude to this site...
Let me now if you're interested...
macksmets@gmail.com