Rubin's Ramblings: Digging Below the Surface

By David Rubin

A number of years ago, I was brought into a restaurant company to help modernize and streamline the processes in operations and training. After a few weeks of learning where the "bodies were buried" I tried to figure out what processes came from which regime and why. After a few more weeks, I learned a valuable lesson - it didn't matter where (or when) the layers of "drek" came from, but what was important was cutting through it with surgical precision to rid the system of whatever cancers plagued it without damaging anything that was working. This is the job that Sandy Alderson and his team have been tasked with, and as we'll see, the levels of decay run deep, all the way back to the end of Frank Cashen's era.

As Mack chronicles regularly in his "The Sandy" report, in the short time that Alderson and company have been in charge, there have already been drastic changes in the organization. Coming into the job, many of the players and execs Alderson inherited were Omar hires; a significant number of front office personnel who have already been let go or resigned pre-date Omar's tenure, going back to the Steve Phillips days. The organization has been a hodge-podge of multiple regimes, going back even to the Frank Cashen days. (Jim Duquette barely got a chance to leave his mark on things during his short tenure.) For the first time in about 20 years, the organization is receiving the (almost) complete make-over it's desperately needed, in the same way I was tasked with giving a make-over to the restaurant company I referenced. It's not an easy task, and there won't be quick rewards, but the rewards will come, and they will be longer-lasting.

Instead of arguing about losing potential draft picks in a deal for Billy Wagner (and having the player we were supposed to receive get blocked by the Yankees), or why the team has rarely gone above-slot in order to bring in better minor league talent, we can be happy that the organization (as in - the WILPONS) are spending money, yet again, to right the wrongs of prior regimes by stockpiling the front office with talent. Alderson, DePodesta, Ricciardi, Krivsky & Ricco is an enviable group of baseball experts, and they've already shown that they won't bow to peer pressure, the way Omar was left to do, by making decisions that simply serve the fan-base, but not necessarily the long-term success of the franchise. The thoughtfulness that Alderson puts into his decision-making was in evidence in the way he has handled both the assembling of his front office team as well as the thoroughness of the just-completed managerial search.


Collins is the Man
Hiring Terry Collins wasn't the easiest thing to do- hiring Wally Backman would have been a quicker route to "public acceptance." However, knowing that this season, even more young talent will be called upon to make up the major league roster means that someone who was thoroughly familiar with the teams' minor leagues is a necessity for the manager's chair. In Collins, they've brought in a teacher who is more familiar with their various strengths and weaknesses via the year he spent traveling throughout the teams farm system, including working with their injured players (in other words, 50% of their roster- LOL!) In spite of a number of ex-players knocking Collins, all Mack and I have heard is great things from a number of minor leaguers who interacted regularly with Collins last season. I'm also friendly with an ex-Dodger minor leaguer, who had only great things to say about Collins during their tenure together. Not to belabor this (I've already written about 10,000 words on this subject), but you have to realize that "Team Sandy" is planning not just for 2011 or 2012, but for 2013 and beyond. That means that they'll hopefully have Wally or Chip Hale in the fold to replace Collins, when the day comes, IF the day comes, that he wears out his welcome. This is certainly a departure from Omar's approach, where he was constantly playing the role of the "little Dutch boy with his finger in the dyke," trying to patch big holes on the fly with splashy signings while seeing the foundation crumble due to an inability to handle the small details.

Warthen & Hale Return
The coaching staff is coming together, and should be finalized shortly. Pitching Coach Dan Warthen is coming back, and it's assumed that Chip Hale will continue as third base coach (his choice - the team wants him); I've heard Ken Oberkfell or Larry Bowa for bench coach; either Mookie Wilson or Tim Teufel at first base; and goodness knows who the hitting coach will be. It will be a well-heeled group (of baseball knowledge, not money- LOL) who will focus on teaching fundamentals under Collins' watchful eye. One has to give Omar credit for assembling half of an excellent staff in Hale and Warthen, and he also DID bring Collins in, so credit has to be given. Fans will forgive a lot if they see the team is hustling, and playing heads-up baseball, led by the manager and the coaching staff; it's a lot harder to tolerate $140 million dollar payrolls where hustle and sharp play is few and far between.

Assembling The Roster Puzzle
Now that the front office has all but been assembled, the manager has been hired, and the coaching staff is about to be put into place, "Team Sandy" has to get busy putting together the players who will be there to take the field in April. The roster is going to take longer for Alderson and team to shape, as monetary resources will be tight this season. Various reporters have guessed that the Mets would have somewhere between $4 and $10 million dollars to spend, after arbitration raises are paid out (Pagan, Dickey, etc), and Feliciano possibly accepts either arbitration or a deal, leaving the Mets at about $140 million in payroll. That includes both Ollie Perez and Luis Castillo, who combined account for approximately $18 million this season, or about one year of a Carl Crawford. It's not yet known whether or not either or both will be released; one has to figure that, based on the way we've seen Alderson move so far, he'll investigate every way he might be able to rid the organization of these players without losing the club's entire investment, even if he may have to package some minor leaguers along with eating a lion's share of their contracts. Trading a bad contract for a bad contract isn't necessarily the best solution either, because that still leaves you without flexibility AND holding the bag for another player you didn't necessarily want. (It's not as easy as one of those car leasing companies, where you can trade one expiring lease for a longer one that another person wants to get rid of- and even THAT isn't as easy as it's cracked up to be.)

The team has already lost left-handers Takahashi and Valdes, although they have, at least, offered arbitration to Pedro Feliciano (although it's questionable whether or not he'll accept it.) This leaves the bullpen half-vacant. The upcoming Rule V draft has left Brant Rustich, Eric Niesen and Nick Carr exposed, and all but Niesen are coming off of major injuries. In fact, all 3 might make potential bullpen replacements, IF they aren't selected by another team, and IF they get healthy at some point prior to (or early into) the 2011 season. Rustich just underwent successful surgery (as Mack posted a few days ago), and Carr is still recovering from TJ surgery and may not be up to speed until part-way through the season, making both risky picks for other clubs. Niesen was thought by many (including yours truly) to have a legit shot at making the team out of Spring Training, and still may if he's not selected; he's making a good show of it in the Arizona Fall League, which may have alerted another team, sadly. That essentially leaves K-Rod, Parnell and Igarashi (with, possibly, Feliciano) as the only remaining relief pitchers from 2010 - not exactly an inspiring group, but the good news is the free agent market is laden with middle relievers. I'd bet the Mets wait until January to see which players have yet to receive concrete offers, and might be willing to take less money to ensure themselves a place to play in 2011. Who knows- maybe a Brandon Webb or a Justin Duchscherer might find themselves still looking for a place to come back to, and offer their services for pennies on the dollar for a shot at rejoining a rotation. It also stands to reason that this is an area that both DePodesta and Ricciardi's expertise will come into play- they are familiar with the majority of the players exposed in the Rule V draft, and may be tasked to pluck some potential gems from the pile (I've already heard former Met pick, Pedro Beato, and Yankee farmhand/hard-thrower Craig Heyer will be on that list.)

Speaking of the rotation, we already know that Johan Santana isn't going to be ready to start the 2011 season; I'd rather see "Team Sandy" not count on his return until, say, August, and plan accordingly; that way there's less pressure to rush Santana, and therefore risk recurrence of injury (and you KNOW that, under Omar, he would have been rushed as fast as humanly possible, and Santana being the gamer that he is, might just have agreed to come back too soon.) This leaves Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey and possibly Gee as the SP-1 - 4; without any major funds available, at best the team will look to a Jon Garland - at worst, a rehab project a la Webb (and let's hope it doesn't come to that!)

If Johan HAD been completely healthy going into the 2011 season, I'm sure that the Mets still would not have been involved in the Cliff Lee negotiations, because, with so much money already tied up in dead contracts, there's no way the team could afford to take on a second +$20 million dollar arm in the rotation. That's what happens when you've committed $12 million over 3 years to an Ollie Perez and received nothing in return. There might not be a Cliff Lee-like pitcher available in 2012, but with almost $60 million coming off the books, I'm sure there will be a team somewhere looking to trade a top level pitcher to relieve their salary burden, and the Mets will have the resources to make that happen at that time.

The starting line-up is a bit more set, with question marks at second and in the outfield. I've discussed both positions "ad nauseam," but we know that there won't be any major expenditures made to either sign a second baseman or pick up the majority of Carlos Beltran's salary; that leaves either the return of Castillo, to platoon with a Daniel Murphy, or a pairing of Murphy and a lesser-paid platoon partner, and an outfield of Bay-Beltran-Pagan. I'm not as worried about the bats as I am the pitching, as it'll certainly be a more potent line-up then the 2010 version. And the bench will be a challenge as well, due to funds available, but this will also give Collins a chance to put his knowledge of the minor league talent to use, as he may be able to figure out which players might be ready to play a role at the big league level.

The "Always Forgotten" Department - SCOUTING
The Scouting Department has also changed greatly under "Team Sandy"- Scouting Director Rudy Terrasas, who has run the Mets draft since 2006, has been "reassigned" and may or may not stay with the organization. As we are well aware, right after Alderson came on board, Bob Johnson, Russ Bove and Duane Larson were either let go or resigned; Ricciardi, now in charge of scouting, brought in Roy Smith and Jim D'Aloia to replace them, and it's expected he'll add additional scouts to the ranks over the next few weeks, including a new Scouting Director. Along with the scouting department, the minor leagues will see a shuffling of both instructors and managers/coaches, with Backman moving into whatever level is vacated to fill the big league coaching staff, and it will be particularly interesting to see who is hired to fill the roles of minor league hitting and pitching instructors. One would hope that "Team Sandy" will continue to hire big, and bring in top tier instructors who can create a unified team approach that will focus on fundamentals as well as prepping major leaguers to maximize the dimensions of CitiField. Personally, I'd LOVE to see someone like a Leo Mazzone brought in to help teach young pitchers how to strengthen their arms and pitch deeper into games.

Earlier today, VP-Scouting Paul DePodesta appeared on XM Radio's MLB Network Radio, and had the following to say about scouting and his role in the organization:

I will be involved in all player development and scouting work- domestic and international... Sandy believes in organizational consistency and process. I've always been heavily tied to process- it's really what I've done. It's what I'm here to help instill- consistent processes from Latin America thru the big leagues... I'm there to ensure we're all pulling on the same end of the rope and doing things the right way...Going forward we will be aggressive in scouting and signing players... I've always been one to be aggressive on draft market domestically and internationally.

What's most exciting about this is that there will be an even greater focus on both scouting and ongoing development of minor leaguers then the team has possibly ever had in the past. At times, it's seemed like the team drafted against the grain numerous times, and not in a way that brought positive results.

Let's look at the top picks under Terrasas since 2006:

2006
Kevin Mulvey, RHP, second round (first round pick lost to free agent signings)
Joe Smith, RHP, third round
John Holdzkom, RHP, fourth round

Review: Mulvey was included in the Santana deal; Smith was in the JJ Putz deal; Holdzkom is recovering from injury and is currently targeted for Extended Camp.
Grade: D- (at least Mulvey helped land Santana)

2007
Eddie Kunz, RHP, first- supplemental pick (first round pick lost to free agent signings)
Nathan Vineyard, LHP, first- supplemental pick
Scott Moviel, RHP, second round

Review: Kunz was another Rick Waitts debacle- they screwed with his mechanics and he never recovered from it, and was just left unprotected in the Rule V draft; Vineyard took his $800,000 signing bonus and lasted a few weeks before leaving the game altogether; Moviel was also just exposed in the Rule V draft, and he never developed into the pitcher they projected for him.
Grade: F (3 complete busts)

2008
Ike Davis, 1B, first round
Reese Havens, SS, first round
Brad Holt, RHP, first-supplemental

Review: Davis was a great pick, becoming the best home-grown position player since the promotions of Reyes & Wright; Havens has the tools to be an excellent hitting second baseman, and his defense has gotten better; Holt had great potential, but again his motion was changed and he hasn't been able to replicate his excellent first season. Where he goes from here, no one knows, but Havens may be the starting second baseman at the big league level in 2012.
Grade: A-

2009
Steven Matz, LHP, second round (first round pick lost to free agent signings)
Robbie Shields, SS, third round
Darrell Ceciliani, OF, fourth round

Review: The 279th ranked left-handed pitcher in that draft, Matz is a huge question mark- he has no velocity and no control- other than that, he's a good pitcher; Shields has shown good improvement in his recovery from TJ surgery and projects as a future shortstop at the major league level- good fielder, not a lot of power; Ceciliani is the surprise of this draft, and projects as a future major centerfielder- again, not much power, great speed and good defense- he'll get to stay in Savannah and continue to develop.
Grade: C+

2010
Matt Harvey, RHP, first round
Blake Forsythe, C, third round
Cory Vaughn, OF, fourth round

Review: Harvey was a very interesting pick, as you can't "teach speed" in a pitcher; however, he hasn't thrown one pitch in the minors yet, and it's still not known whether he will be able to start, and develop the necessary arm-strength and secondary pitches, or if ultimately he will end up as a closer; Forsythe is already the best catching prospect in the organization, which isn't so much a testament to his potential as much as it is a knock on the overall catching depth in the organization. Vaughn remains a true "wild card" as his power and defense in Brooklyn were pleasant surprises all around (especially to Mack), but it remains to be seen how well he does as he progresses throughout the organization.
Grade: Incomplete

Ultimately, Omar is responsible for these picks, because they came under his watch, but the overall success (or lack of) under Terrasas is another reason why major changes in the front office were necessary, and continue to take place.

Culture
The culture of the entire organization has been changed in less then a month - certainly a huge difference in both style and substance regarding how things will get done and how both short and long-term processes are put into place. Hearing DePodesta discuss how he is "process-based" comes as a relief after the seeming "wing and a prayer" philosophy of the past few years. In many ways, the main thing standing in the way of the team's success was health issues; however, it's HOW those issues were handled (lack of replacement-ready players, dishonesty with the press and fan-base, etc.) that ultimately led to the team's downfall. The new culture of honesty and thoughtfulness are more in line with the one the Yankees created under Gene Michael and Buck Showalter almost 17 years ago, or the one that Theo Epstein and Terry Francona have created more recently with the Red Sox. The days of a co-dependent mentality in the clubhouse is gone, due to the firing of Clubhouse Manager, Charlie Samuels, and the introduction of greater discipline under Collins and company's watch. The team is getting younger, and will soon feature a roster filled with more homegrown talent then imported talent, which was Omar's ultimate goal but one he never was able to reach. And, finally, the organization is no longer looked down upon by other teams, as Alderson and company command a great deal of respect around the game, and with them at the helm, hopefully the days of complaints by other teams as to how hard it was to complete transactions with the team will also be a thing of the past.

I certainly think it could be said that the team faces a better future on Thanksgiving, 2010 then it did on Thanksgiving, 2009 - and I think we can all say a heartfelt "AMEN" for that! It'll certainly make the next 90 days until pitchers and catchers report move a lot quicker!!

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family from all of us here at Mack's Baseball!!!