By David Rubin
By recent Met standards, this has been a quiet off-season. Of course, there are many reasons for this, not the least of which is the fact that the team has new leadership for the first time in 6 years. Let's take a look at some of the reasons why the team is in a "window-browsing" mode, and what that means for the 2012 season and beyond.
First, some "givens" to this equation:
1.) The "New Leadership Team" needs time to learn an entire organization's worth of players.
2.) The prior regime over-spent on a number of frivolous contracts (see: Perez, Oliver, Castillo, Luis) leaving the team with too much contractual "dead weight" on a team with over $140 million dollars already committed for 2011.
3.) A large number of young players - Jon Niese, Ike Davis, Bobby Parnell, Josh Thole & Dillon Gee- have already made it to the big leagues, and will play a large role in the teams success in 2011 and beyond.
4.) A number of young players will vie for a roster spot in 2011, including Nick Evans, Manny Alvarez, Pedro Beato, Armando Rodriguez, Brant Rustich, Brad Emaus, Justin Turner, Lucas Duda & Fernando Martinez.
5.) Every place in the starting line-up, except for second base, is already set. The competition at second will consist of Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Emaus, Turner and perhaps Luis Hernandez, with at least one of these contenders heading to the bench in a utility role.
6.) The team has a number of "interesting" middle infield prospects, including Ruben Tejada, Emaus, Murphy, Reese Havens, Jordany Valdespin, Josh Satin, and, of course Wilmer Flores, who will most assuredly end up either at a corner infield or outfield position, rather then at shortstop.
7.) Top SP prospect, Jenrry Mejia, is no more then a full season away from being major league-ready. Second baseman Reese Havens, shortstop Tejada and SP prospect Matt Harvey may be on a similar time-line as Mejia.
8.) Two players, RA Dickey and Angel Pagan, paid far greater dividends in 2010 then anyone expected; how they perform in 2011 will go a long way towards not only determining the length of their future contracts, but whether or not the team can plug them in, long-term, into their positions, SP4 and Center-field, respectively.
9.) The 2011 amateur draft appears to have a greater depth of talented players then either the 2012 or 2013 drafts do, at least at this point in time.
10.) The 2011 free agent class could have a number of interesting, top level talent available for the taking, including Albert Pujols (1B), Prince Fielder (1B), Robinson Cano (2B), Aaron Hill (2B), Brandon Phillips (2B), Richie Weeks (2B), Yadier Molina (C), Jose Bautista (OF/3B), Corey Hart (OF), Grady Sizemore (CF), Mark Buehrle (SP), Chris Carpenter (SP), Aaron Cook (SP), Edwin Jackson (SP), Roy Oswalt (SP), Wandy Rodriguez (SP), CJ Wilson (SP), Heath Bell (RP), Jonathan Broxton (RP), Matt Capps (RP), Joe Nathan (RP) and Jonathan Pabelbon (RP). Add to this list the Mets Carlos Beltran (CF), Jose Reyes (SS), Oliver Perez (SP), Francisco Rodriguez (RP) (IF he doesn't hit his option targets) and Luis Castillo (2B) - or approximately $60 million worth of payroll. (Special thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts!!)
11.) Shortstop Jose Reyes, at age 27 and coming off of 2 incomplete seasons in a row (due to injury), is going into the final year of his contract (at $11 mil) and Sandy Alderson and company do not seem to be in a hurry to sign him to a contract extension any time soon. Reyes has a lot to prove in 2011, as his success will determine the length and amount of his next, long-term contract.
12.) Center-fielder Carlos Beltran, also at the end of his contract, will be 34 soon after opening day and is coming off of a major injury. He has a no-trade clause that he might waive, should the Mets be willing to trade him to a contender, and his contract contains another clause that prohibits the Mets from offering him arbitration after the 2011 season, nullifying the chance to acquire any draft picks should Beltran sign elsewhere as a free agent after the '11 season.
13.) With the added "sandwich pick" coming to them via the free agent loss of reliever Pedro Feliciano, the Mets will have 3 of the top 60 or so draft picks in the 2011 amateur draft. The team plans to go "over-slot" wherever necessary to grab top talent via the draft, and this one, the first of the new regime's tenure, will go a long way towards the teams future success in light of the weaker upcoming talent pools.
Taking all of these points into consideration, I think the team has chosen wisely to plug holes on the roster with short-term, quick fixes (reliever DJ Carrasco, catcher Ronny Paulino) that won't compromise future payrolls, while trying to sort out the roster "contenders" from the "pretenders." There's no way to know how well a Reyes or a Beltran will recover from their injuries in December; there's also no way that trading assets like these players when their value is at their lowest would bring back a decent enough haul of younger players to make trading them in the off-season worthwhile. There will be teams like the Rangers, Angels, Cardinals, Giants and White Sox who will be contenders in 2011 and may be a Beltran or a Reyes away from making it to the play-offs; a half season of enhanced statistics will result in a much greater pay-day for the team then an off-season of rehabilitation will.
Furthermore, a half season at the helm will give Sandy Alderson, JP Ricciardi, Paul DePodesta and company enough time to evaluate first-hand the realistic timetables for prospects like Mejia, Harvey, Tejada, Puello and others, have their first amateur draft behind them and pretty much know how the team will fare in the 2011 season. This "could" mean that Tejada and either Puello or Duda are ready to step into a starting role in 2012; it could also mean that the team might have interest in a new, free agent center-fielder, like Sizemore, and a new shortstop - insert any name here - should they determine that either or all of the youngsters are not ready or not able to step into those roles. The one thing that waiting until the Summer-time DOES do for the management team is give them OPTIONS, something this team has been too short on over the past few seasons.
With these factors well in hand, a trade for a Reyes or Beltran, should they decide NOT to re-sign either or both players to new contracts, will result in additional, quality young (or young-ish) prospects to bolster the teams quest to contend for a number of years, versus the "quick-fix" mentality that has plagued the franchise these past 5 years. I bet it was hard for Red Sox fans, too, when Theo Epstein and company took over the franchise over 7 seasons ago- but they haven't fared too badly, and their fan-base has been well rewarded for the many years of patience they showed. That is the model that the Mets are attempting to emulate, and by properly using some of their current players as leverage to acquire additional building blocks, stop-gap methods of contention will, hopefully, become a thing of the past once and for all.
Putting it All Together
Okay- let's say the Rangers and Angels are both in contention in June, with the Oakland A's not far behind. Furthermore, the Rangers could use a closer, after putting Neftali Feliz in the rotation; the Angels could use a power-hitting center-fielder to complete their offense; and the A's need a top quality shortstop who can add speed and defense to their team. Do you think Francisco Rodriquez, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes might, in such a situation, bring back a nice return on their investment? I certainly do, and so do Alderson and company, if I were a betting man. Those trades could result in a small haul's worth of top-level prospects, combined with the systems existing talent and the additions from the season's amateur draft, and presto- "instant" talent infusion!!!
Of course, I wish it were so simple, but with the front office talent now in place, the knowledge that a ton of payroll is a year away from coming "off the books," the dearth of good prospects in 2012-2013, the quality of free agents available in those same off-seasons and the focus on talent that will fit the environs of Citi Field, one has to believe that these forces will all converge and a perennial contender will emerge from the ashes, sooner rather then later, longer-lasting rather then ephemeral. We've waited 24 years so far between World Series victories; I, for one, am willing to wait a little longer to reap the benefits of a long-term, winning philosophy. It's in the hands of Alderson, DePodesta and Ricciardi...I pray they are the ones to make it happen!!
By recent Met standards, this has been a quiet off-season. Of course, there are many reasons for this, not the least of which is the fact that the team has new leadership for the first time in 6 years. Let's take a look at some of the reasons why the team is in a "window-browsing" mode, and what that means for the 2012 season and beyond.
First, some "givens" to this equation:
1.) The "New Leadership Team" needs time to learn an entire organization's worth of players.
2.) The prior regime over-spent on a number of frivolous contracts (see: Perez, Oliver, Castillo, Luis) leaving the team with too much contractual "dead weight" on a team with over $140 million dollars already committed for 2011.
3.) A large number of young players - Jon Niese, Ike Davis, Bobby Parnell, Josh Thole & Dillon Gee- have already made it to the big leagues, and will play a large role in the teams success in 2011 and beyond.
4.) A number of young players will vie for a roster spot in 2011, including Nick Evans, Manny Alvarez, Pedro Beato, Armando Rodriguez, Brant Rustich, Brad Emaus, Justin Turner, Lucas Duda & Fernando Martinez.
5.) Every place in the starting line-up, except for second base, is already set. The competition at second will consist of Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Emaus, Turner and perhaps Luis Hernandez, with at least one of these contenders heading to the bench in a utility role.
6.) The team has a number of "interesting" middle infield prospects, including Ruben Tejada, Emaus, Murphy, Reese Havens, Jordany Valdespin, Josh Satin, and, of course Wilmer Flores, who will most assuredly end up either at a corner infield or outfield position, rather then at shortstop.
7.) Top SP prospect, Jenrry Mejia, is no more then a full season away from being major league-ready. Second baseman Reese Havens, shortstop Tejada and SP prospect Matt Harvey may be on a similar time-line as Mejia.
8.) Two players, RA Dickey and Angel Pagan, paid far greater dividends in 2010 then anyone expected; how they perform in 2011 will go a long way towards not only determining the length of their future contracts, but whether or not the team can plug them in, long-term, into their positions, SP4 and Center-field, respectively.
9.) The 2011 amateur draft appears to have a greater depth of talented players then either the 2012 or 2013 drafts do, at least at this point in time.
10.) The 2011 free agent class could have a number of interesting, top level talent available for the taking, including Albert Pujols (1B), Prince Fielder (1B), Robinson Cano (2B), Aaron Hill (2B), Brandon Phillips (2B), Richie Weeks (2B), Yadier Molina (C), Jose Bautista (OF/3B), Corey Hart (OF), Grady Sizemore (CF), Mark Buehrle (SP), Chris Carpenter (SP), Aaron Cook (SP), Edwin Jackson (SP), Roy Oswalt (SP), Wandy Rodriguez (SP), CJ Wilson (SP), Heath Bell (RP), Jonathan Broxton (RP), Matt Capps (RP), Joe Nathan (RP) and Jonathan Pabelbon (RP). Add to this list the Mets Carlos Beltran (CF), Jose Reyes (SS), Oliver Perez (SP), Francisco Rodriguez (RP) (IF he doesn't hit his option targets) and Luis Castillo (2B) - or approximately $60 million worth of payroll. (Special thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts!!)
11.) Shortstop Jose Reyes, at age 27 and coming off of 2 incomplete seasons in a row (due to injury), is going into the final year of his contract (at $11 mil) and Sandy Alderson and company do not seem to be in a hurry to sign him to a contract extension any time soon. Reyes has a lot to prove in 2011, as his success will determine the length and amount of his next, long-term contract.
12.) Center-fielder Carlos Beltran, also at the end of his contract, will be 34 soon after opening day and is coming off of a major injury. He has a no-trade clause that he might waive, should the Mets be willing to trade him to a contender, and his contract contains another clause that prohibits the Mets from offering him arbitration after the 2011 season, nullifying the chance to acquire any draft picks should Beltran sign elsewhere as a free agent after the '11 season.
13.) With the added "sandwich pick" coming to them via the free agent loss of reliever Pedro Feliciano, the Mets will have 3 of the top 60 or so draft picks in the 2011 amateur draft. The team plans to go "over-slot" wherever necessary to grab top talent via the draft, and this one, the first of the new regime's tenure, will go a long way towards the teams future success in light of the weaker upcoming talent pools.
Taking all of these points into consideration, I think the team has chosen wisely to plug holes on the roster with short-term, quick fixes (reliever DJ Carrasco, catcher Ronny Paulino) that won't compromise future payrolls, while trying to sort out the roster "contenders" from the "pretenders." There's no way to know how well a Reyes or a Beltran will recover from their injuries in December; there's also no way that trading assets like these players when their value is at their lowest would bring back a decent enough haul of younger players to make trading them in the off-season worthwhile. There will be teams like the Rangers, Angels, Cardinals, Giants and White Sox who will be contenders in 2011 and may be a Beltran or a Reyes away from making it to the play-offs; a half season of enhanced statistics will result in a much greater pay-day for the team then an off-season of rehabilitation will.
Furthermore, a half season at the helm will give Sandy Alderson, JP Ricciardi, Paul DePodesta and company enough time to evaluate first-hand the realistic timetables for prospects like Mejia, Harvey, Tejada, Puello and others, have their first amateur draft behind them and pretty much know how the team will fare in the 2011 season. This "could" mean that Tejada and either Puello or Duda are ready to step into a starting role in 2012; it could also mean that the team might have interest in a new, free agent center-fielder, like Sizemore, and a new shortstop - insert any name here - should they determine that either or all of the youngsters are not ready or not able to step into those roles. The one thing that waiting until the Summer-time DOES do for the management team is give them OPTIONS, something this team has been too short on over the past few seasons.
With these factors well in hand, a trade for a Reyes or Beltran, should they decide NOT to re-sign either or both players to new contracts, will result in additional, quality young (or young-ish) prospects to bolster the teams quest to contend for a number of years, versus the "quick-fix" mentality that has plagued the franchise these past 5 years. I bet it was hard for Red Sox fans, too, when Theo Epstein and company took over the franchise over 7 seasons ago- but they haven't fared too badly, and their fan-base has been well rewarded for the many years of patience they showed. That is the model that the Mets are attempting to emulate, and by properly using some of their current players as leverage to acquire additional building blocks, stop-gap methods of contention will, hopefully, become a thing of the past once and for all.
Putting it All Together
Okay- let's say the Rangers and Angels are both in contention in June, with the Oakland A's not far behind. Furthermore, the Rangers could use a closer, after putting Neftali Feliz in the rotation; the Angels could use a power-hitting center-fielder to complete their offense; and the A's need a top quality shortstop who can add speed and defense to their team. Do you think Francisco Rodriquez, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes might, in such a situation, bring back a nice return on their investment? I certainly do, and so do Alderson and company, if I were a betting man. Those trades could result in a small haul's worth of top-level prospects, combined with the systems existing talent and the additions from the season's amateur draft, and presto- "instant" talent infusion!!!
Of course, I wish it were so simple, but with the front office talent now in place, the knowledge that a ton of payroll is a year away from coming "off the books," the dearth of good prospects in 2012-2013, the quality of free agents available in those same off-seasons and the focus on talent that will fit the environs of Citi Field, one has to believe that these forces will all converge and a perennial contender will emerge from the ashes, sooner rather then later, longer-lasting rather then ephemeral. We've waited 24 years so far between World Series victories; I, for one, am willing to wait a little longer to reap the benefits of a long-term, winning philosophy. It's in the hands of Alderson, DePodesta and Ricciardi...I pray they are the ones to make it happen!!
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