I had defined in a post last week how I rank players at diferent levels. I stated that, if I posted a player in the AAA/AA level, that means I project him to be a major league player someday... and if I rank a player in the lower levels, I'm basing the ranking on tools and ceiling only.
This remains true, but it simply didn't translate in every one of my picks. Take a guy like RP Mike O'Connor. I believe he will eventually make it to the Mets, but, frankly, I can't really rank him as a prospect. First, he's too old to be ranked as a prospect, and second, I don't see him remaining a Met reliever for more than 2011, possibly 2012.
Then, there are prospects like SP Brad Holt. He's had a miserable two years in the system, but tools wise, he still has some of the sickest stuff on the roster. I've had him ranked lower due to poor performance, but, ceiling wise, he still comes in somewhere in the top ten pitchers in the system.
So, where do I go from here?
Well, I'm going back to a combination of tools, ceiling, results, and gut feeling. I'm also taking out many of the guys that simply don't qualify as a prospect anymore. Example: catcher Mike Nickeas. I expect to see him in Queens again, but he no longer meets the requirements as a prospect.
Someone asked me "is all the top 100 Keepers actually a prospect list?". Actually, it's not. It's my opinons on the 100 top players in the system that have earned a return invitation.
A Mets prospect list would be in the 30 player range, at best, but I've stretched it to 50.
We'll stretch this list further this month into the top 100 "Keeper" list:
1. SP Jenrry Mejia - one of what I consider two "A" prospects currently in the sytem. I see Mejia as a can't miss SP and, in the long run, his relief work last year for the parent squad will probably help him mature much quicker than originally expected. A future all-star.
2. SS Wilmer Flores - the other "A" prospect", Wilmer is going to do everything he can in 2011 to convince the Mets to keep him on shortstop. I consider him too slow defensively for the position and hope the Mets move him to either right field, first base, or third base. Could wind up the starter in Queens by opening day 2012. I project him out as a 20-HR, 90-RBI Met someday.
3. SP Matt Harvey - still hasn't thrown a pitch for the Mets, but will spend 2011 and 2012 working on his control. There is no question whether or not he has the velo and movement to make it in the pros. All that remains is whether he reels it in as a starter, or becomes the Mets future closer.
4. 2B Reese Havens - yes, he has been injured too often, but mostly due to bad luck, not bad DNA. Havens has the projectable power seldom seen in a middle infielder. He will move quickly if he stays healthy and Daniel Murphy doesn't progress at second. Power projects higher that Flores.
5. 3B Aderlin Rodriquez - maybe the best bat and highest projectable power in the system. The problem is the Mets need to find a position for him. I expect them to leave him on third base for one more year so he can work on his plate discipline, which is already very good. Like Flores. he could be the Mets future right fielder or first baseman in 2015.
6. OF Cesar Puello - he is a combination of youth that can still be projected, and talent that has already been showcased. Really blossomed for Savannah in 2010 and projects out as the Mets lead-off hitter by the beginning of the 2013 season. Plus plus speed.
7. SS Ruben Tejada - Tejada remains high on the list but he will need another chance in Queens to prove that he's not another Anderson Hernandez. Is projected to play the 2011 season in Buffalo, where I'm sure he will hit .280+. He'll get another chance if and when Jose Reyes moves on.
8. SP Juan Urbina - all ceiling and projection at this point. Very young and raw, and scouts project him for 95+ velo in the coming years. The new Mets management won't rush Urbina and I don't exepct him to be adding new pitches until 2012.
9. OF Darrell Ceciliani - Ceciliani had a great 2010, but the biggest reason he's this high is his age and projetablity. Mets will slow him down and send him to Savannah in 2011.
10. OF Gilbert Gomez - all ceiling at this point... had fair season for GCL and will play 2011 as a 19-year old.
11. OF Fernando Martinez - yeah, I know.... but talent wise, minus the injuries, he'd still be ranked #1... no, actually, he'd be in the Mets starting lineup. So sad.
12. Javier Rodriquez - has progressed sower than projected when he was a 2nd round pick, but batted .319 for K-Port in 2011 at the age of 20.
13. SS Jordany Valdespin - lots and lots of talent, but lots and lots of mustard as well. He's ranked this high on tools alone.
14. SP Jeurys Familia - still sits in the 95-96 range while stuggling at higher levels. May wind up in the pen some day.
15. SP Brad Holt - like Familia, still has the velo and movement, but has lost the control. Gets a new start this spring. Another future pen-man.
16. SP Robert Carson - speaking of future pen-men, Carson may wind up the most succesful there due to his aggresive delivery
17. SP Yohan Almonte - Almonte was lights out for Brooklyn in 2011, but we know lots of guys do that in the lower levels.
18. RP Manny Alvarez - has done nothing wrong as a minor league Met and will get his chance this year in the Queens pen.
19. SS Wilfredo Tovar - projects out by the scouts as the future replacement for Jose Reyes. A defensive gem.
20. P Greg Peavey - over-slot draft pick last year that gets to show his stuff for the first time this spring
21. RP Erik Goedele - another 2010 over-slot pick, Goedele willmove quickly through the system.
22. OF Cory Vaughn - incredible 2010 after a ho-hum college career. 2011 will be the next test.
23. OF Lucas Duda - most scout still have him as a utility outfielder with a power pich hitter chaser.
24. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis - 2011 will be the year Kirk has the opportunity to prove he hasn't hit his limits.
25. RP Brant Rustich - new surgery could return Rusty to the dominant pitcher the Mets thought they got when they drafted him
26. 3B Zach Lutz - great bat that would rank much higher if he could stay off the IR. Bad feet.
27. RP Jose De La Torre - blue collar guy that continues to impress
28. CL Chad Sheppard - big-time college closer drafted as ove-slot pick last June
29. 1B-2B Josh Satin - great bat without a projectable position. Trying 1B now.
30. SS Robbie Shields - was high round prospect until TJS surgery put him on the shelf for 2009.
31. SS Rylan Sandoval - second chance with Mets last season seems to be working out
32. OF Matt den Dekker - impressed the crowds (sic) in Savannah
33. RP Nick Carr - hits 100... that will keep him around for at least two more years
34. RP Scott Moviel - last chance coming up for Moviel
35. C Juan Centeno - big surprsie in Brooklyn last season
36. C Kai Gronauer - excellent import, still learning the game
37. 2B Alonzo Harris - poor showing in 2010 but still projectable
38. SP James Fuller - the best of the ten SP5s that came out of Savannah the past two years
39. SP Armondo Rodriguez - excellent 2010 season
40. C Blake Forsythe - very poor 2010 both with the Mets and in school... gets a clean slate this spring to return to the outputs that once projected him as a first rounder
41. RP Roy Merritt - still has the sickness... I awlays liked this guy
42. IF Eric Campbell - man without a position after his first good year
43. SP Brandon Moore - the 2nd best of the 10 SP4s that came out of Savannah the past two seasons.
44. SP Steve Matz - 2009's first rounder coming off TJS
45. SP Domingo Tapia - big time surprise in 2010...
46. C Albert Cordero - off to a good start
47. OF Eudy Pena - DSL dude coming stateside
48. OF Vincente Lupo - ditto
49. 3B Elvis Sanchez - new International signee
50. CL Ryan Fraser - impressed last year as closer
Whatever happened to C Francisco Pena, could even crack the Top 50?
ReplyDeletePena is still around and scheduled to play Binghamton in 2011.
ReplyDeleteHe hasn't had a successful minor league career after signing a big bonus package. Batted .224 for St. Lucie in 2009, which was his last full season. On the IR for most of last season and hit .182 this past winter.
It will be interesting to see if he or Kai Gronauer gets the nod for the B-Mets. Remember... most of Pena's "boys" are gone...
Kirk Nieuwenhuis ranked 24th? The 8th ranked outfielder? Seriously? That's awfully bearish. His floor is that of a above average 4th outfielder. He still has the potential to be an offense-first starting CFer a defense-first starting corner OFer. Given his proximity to the majors, he is just about a lock to provide some value at the major league level.
ReplyDeleteAndy, no one hopes I am more wrong than me about the Captain. He's a great guy.
ReplyDeleteIt's just my opinion based on what I've been told. he really hit a wall at AAA and word is there really isn't much more to project here...
We'll see...
Mets Prospect Ranking
ReplyDelete3. SP Matt Harvey (I can't begin to explain my problems with Harvey ranking 3rd without throwing 1 minor-league pitch)
4. 2B Reese Havens (Havens has to be healthier than F-Mart before he ranks higher.)
6. OF Cesar Puello (Puello hit well in a pitching league but I don't see how he ranks above Captain Kirk and F-Mart.)
7. SS Ruben Tejada (Is he close to the majors? Sure, but he has a minor-league bat and always will.)
9. OF Darrell Ceciliani (REALLY?!? above SO many people this is short sighted.)
10. OF Gilbert Gomez (Is this a different Gilbert Gomez? http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gomez-001gil)
11. OF Fernando Martinez (Too low but if you had picked your higher ranked players better it would be acceptable.)
16. SP Robert Carson (I have an issue with having this THROWER so highly rated.)
17. SP Yohan Almonte (Almonte looks good but let me see him in St. Lucie before he ranks this high.)
22. OF Cory Vaughn (Below Cecilliani, okay. Below Greg Peavey? NO!)
23. OF Lucas Duda (One might rank him this low but only because he's not really a prospect anymore.)
24. OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis (What did he do to you?)
29. 1B-2B Josh Satin (Another guy who ranks low in my eyes but it isn't awful.)
38. SP James Fuller (He should rank higher given the poor state of our prospect pitching.)
42. IF Eric Campbell (Campbell might be the best bench player in our system.)
43. SP Brandon Moore (With Fuller I rank Moore Fuller and Cohoon a lot closer to one another.)
(well... he liked 34 of my picks...)
ReplyDelete