Projections and Predictions: 2011 NY Mets

This is the time of the year I have always predicted where the Mets will finish their next season. I began this on my original blog, “Mack’s Mets Notes”, in 2005, making this year the 7th consecutive year.


Past predictions and results:





            Prediction      Result


2005:          1st           3rd t

2006:          1st           1st

2007:          3rd          2nd

2008:         3rd           2nd

2009:         3rd           4th

2010:         4th           4th



This year, I am adding some projections for some of the players on the team.



David Wright: 2010: .283, 29-HR, 103-RBI – No one will get out of the dugout faster than David this upcoming season. New management has lit a fire under most of the Mets and no one will benefit more from it than Wright. His home run output will fall off a little, but he will have one of his best seasons as a Met: .313, 25-HR, 123-RBI.


Jason Bay: 2010: .259, 6-HR, 47-RBI – Bay is the first of the 2011 Mets to easily double his output over the 2010 season. He will play injury free and make Mets fans realize that his signing was a good idea. No, he will not hit 30-HRs, but he doesn’t have to in this lineup: .281, 23-HRs, 101-RBIs.


Carlos Beltran: 2010: .255, 7-HR, 27-RBI – Beltran redefines the definition of option year production. He did slow down a little in center field, but his bat proved he was a worthy sign-and-trade at the all-star break, where he had already produced for the Mets 21-HRs and 68-RBIs.


Jose Reyes: 2010: .282, 11-HR, 54-RBI – Like Beltran, Reyes played injury free up to his trade during the all-star break. He was second in the league at that point in stolen bases, and had a .402 OBP as the Mets leadoff hitter. Many thought the Mets made a bad move trading the two of them at a point in the season where they were only three games out of first place in the loss column. Still, so-called experts thought the team was playing a little over their head and Mets fans were thrilled with the players received in both trades.


Ike Davis: 2010: .264, 19-HR, 71-RBI – the sophomore jinx did seem to hit Davis and he regressed a little defensively as well, neither to the point of worry; however, it will be interesting to see what the 2012 spring training brings, especially after the all-star year Fernando Martinez had playing first in Buffalo (he he…) .234, 17-HR, 78-RBI


Daniel Murphy: - 2010: IR - Murphy started off the season a s a platoon player but quickly showed he was everybody’s choice to play every day at second. His all-star numbers by the all-star break allowed the Mets to package Reese Havens in the Reyes deal, and who would have expected Murph to make fans forget about Dan Uggla. .301, 31-HRs, 122-RBIs


Angel Pagan: - 2010: .290, 11-HR, 69-RBI – Pagan put together another wonderful season and he and Reyes were the best 1-2 punch in the majors for the first half of the season. Let the team in runs scored, and led the league in steals. .279, 8-HR, 53-RBI


Josh Thole: - 2010: .277, 3-HR, 17-RBI – Everyone expected Thole to hit .300, especially since he spent much of the year being platooned, but it just didn’t happen. He did improve defensively and he was the pitcher’s favorite behind the plate: .283, 5-HR, 39-RBI


Mike Pelfrey: 2010: 15-9, 3.66, 1.38 – Pelfrey turned in another good year for an SP2; however, he was called upon to be the SP1 for the first half of the season. He has now become a mainstay of the Mets rotation: 16-11, 3-76, 1.23


Jon Niese: 2010: 9-10, 4.20, 1.46 – can’t say the same for Niese, who just couldn’t come out of the box in the spring. It seems he might have a hard time sticking next season, what with all the blue chippers on the way up, including the two studs the Mets got for Beltran and Reyes: 16-14, 6.32, 1.98


R.A. Dickey: 2010: 11-9, 2.84, 1.19 – new management took the pitch count off of Dickey and he turned out to be the top innings eater on the staff. What a great find two years ago: 15-9, 2.67, 1.15


Dillon Gee: 2010: 2-2, 2.18, 1.21 – another innings eater, Gee did very little spectacularly, but got the job done throughout the time he was given the rock: 12-8, 4.16, 1.43


Jenrry Mejia: 2010: 0-4, 4.62, 1.69 – the first of two new starters after the all-star break, Mejia was dominant from the first time he walked to the mound. Next year’s SP1: 11-2, 1.69, 1.01


Johan Santana: 2010: 11-9, 2.98, 1.18 – the other Godsend at the all-star break, Santana proved all his skeptics wring with a dominant second half of the season: 9-1, 1.98, 1.15


Win-Loss Record: 91 – 71 - 2nd Place