SP Weekly Update:

This past week was not a good one for most of the rotational pitchers in the system. Mark Cohoon gave up 11 runs in only 3.2 innings pitched and Brad Holt put up 8-BB in 4.0-IP, giving him 18 in 11.1 innings. Lastly, Greg Peavey gave up four runs in the fourth on Friday night and never recovered.


Still, a few names do still stand out:




 AAA                     G   W-L   ERA   WHIP   BABIP   FIP


Chris Schwinden 7     3-1    1.82      0.96      .243      2.68


Jenrry Mejia         5    1-2     2.86     1.06      .192      3.88


AA


Jeurys Familia     2    0-0    0.64     0.79      .216     2.60


Mark Cohoon       8    1-3    3.69     1.40       .317     4.28


Brad Holt              8    1-3    3.72    1.42       .214      4.79


Robert Carson       7    1-4   3.96     1.43      .340      4.10


A+


Matt Harvey            8   5-2    2.61    1.21     .311      3.38


Scott Moviel            8   4-1    3.00    1.38    .309       3.70


Darin Gorski          9   1-0    2.40    1.23     .380      1.83


A


Greg Peavey            9   3-1    3.00    1.17    .342     2.77


Erik Goeddel          8    2-2    2.93    1.08   .294      3.76


Ryan Fraser            8   2-3    3.05     1.35   .282     5.45


Gonzalez Germen   8    3-1   3.68     1.44   .362     3.53


Taylor Whitenton 8     2-0    2.35     1.14   .299     3.35






1. We put Mejia’s numbers up as an example of how his season was going before he went under the knife.


2. We, and most of the Mets world await for Chris Schwinden to do something wrong, but it just hasn’t happened yet. This is starting to give the Mets an option for the 2012 rotation. Remember, no one is projected to make that rotation until 2013 when Mejia, Jeurys Familia, and Matt Harvey are already on paper here.


St. Lucie’s Darin Gorski and Savannah’s Taylor Whitenton have pitched themselves onto the rotation. Both started the season as a reliever, but Gorski may need a third look. The 6-4 LHP has 44-K in only 30.0-IP.


Movement? I think not. Familia deserved his bump to Binghamton because he totally dominated his for six starts for St. Lucie, a team he already pitched for last year. None else has earned a bump.

 Gonna define FIP one more time:


Tom Tango, independently derived a similar formula, known as Fielding Independent Pitching,[12] which is very close to the results of dERA and DICE. In that equation, "HR" is home runs, "BB" is walks, "K" is strikeouts, and "IP" is innings pitched. That equation gives you a number that is nothing close to a normal ERA, so the equation used is more often (but not always) this one: That equation gives a number that is much closer to a potential pitcher's ERA.The Hardball Times, a popular baseball statistics website, uses a slightly different FIP equation, instead using 3*(BB+HBP-IBB) rather than simply 3*(BB) where "HBP" stands for batters hit by pitch and "IBB" stands for intentional base on balls.[13]


It’s confusing, but the sabre-freaks say this is the most accurate was to derternine just how well a starter has done


Where do these numbers come from? It's the same idea as in wOBA - those weights on the events are derived from the average run value of each event. And in fact you could even say that FIP does include balls in play because of the + C factor at the end. By scaling it to the league ERA, you're basically saying that FIP evaluates a pitcher for skills that he has control of relative to facing an average offense and with an average defense behind him. Aside from neutralizing the context, one of the advantages of FIP is that it is a better indicator of future performance than ERA. Colin Wyers did a study a few years ago that looked at FIP does aroughly a 20% better job than ERA alone.


IMO, FIP an x-FIP are the future stats to evaultae the effectively of a team starters.