Obviously, Alderson and company felt Nimmo's upside far out weighed thee upside of all the remaining draftees. Only time will tell. Anytime someone's opinion is used to make a decision based on evaluations and projections, there is no right answer until all those involved have shown what they will max out as talent wise in the future. Despite all the second guessing, chances are a third or fourth rounder, or possibly even a late round pick that doesn't sign will end up being the best ballplayer of this draft class
Mack: I agree with you that people in the position of Sandy Alderosn know a lot more about this stuff than people like me.
There is no way we will know if this draft is successful until five years from now, when these kids are all eligible for the Rule V Draft. (I'm beginning today a series of posts looking back at the 2004-2006 drafts).
My main concern with this draft is the fact that the Mets had four picks in the first 101, in a draft considered one of the most talented in years. Moreover, there is a good chance that three very talented members of the 25-man will be gone next season. Lastly, both upper levels of the Mets affiliates, AAA-Buffalo and AA-Binghamton, are basically depleted of projectable talent.
I would have expected the Mets to ten draft four college juniors that could be projected to make Queens (if things went well), by the beginning of the 2014 season, latest.
Instead, the first two picks were high school kids that couldn't possibly be ready until 2016.
Yes, the next four picks were college pitchers, but the big guys were gone already.
Look, here was the Red Sox' first five picks:
Matt Barnes, RHP, Blake Swihart, C, Henry Owens, LHP, Jackie Bradley Jr, OF, Williams Jerez, OF
And remember, the Mets picked first each round.
I find it interesting that during Omar Minaya's tenure his draft philosophy was criticized as being too "safe", going for college players who were more or less maxed out talent wise and considered highly signable for slot or even less. Yet, now that a new administration with new talent evaluators has taken over and changed the draft philosophy they are now being criticized for the very approach the "experts" wanted Minaya to take. Yes, this was a deep class. But for once the Mets were bold and aggressive in going for the players that they liked best, not going for the guys who might be cheaper signs or quicker to MLB.
ReplyDeleteClearly, you cannot please everyone. I know we're talking about New York and the old adage that you cannot "rebuild" a NY baseball team. However, if you want this team to become a real consistent contender on the ML level and not just every 3 or 5 years you have to change the way the team is built from the ground up. Not rebuilding necessarily, just establishing a pipe line of high quality talent coming through the minor leagues on a yearly basis.
I think this is exactly what Alderson and his subordinates have in mind. And I, for one, applaud their effort. We probably won't know for sure if this draft is a bust or a boon for 3 or 4 years, but I appreciate their bold and aggressive approach. Now, we've got to get these guys signed and see what we have. I really hope we can sign Phillips and Robbins along with Nimmo and Fullmer.
Good points, 86...
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure if my comments are critical. They are a surprise... to me, and I'm only talking about the first two picks.
I have been critical about Omar Minaya's lack of respect for the draft, and I love picks like Phillips and Robbins.
But... I still would rather start off the day with a pitcher like Bradley or Barnes that can project immediately down the road.
The first step in Nimmo is to sign him.
I think what DePo and his scouts are hoping for in Nimmo is to strike Gold with an impact bat who can hit with thunder in the middle of the lineup. Maybe it'll take 5 years, but that puts him in NY at around age 23 which is clearly achievable.
ReplyDeleteMaybe taking Nimmo that early was a bit of a reach. But DePo clearly trusts his scouts who were apparently all over him throughout the spring and were convinced that he was 1st Round worthy. Other teams may have assumed that because his HS has no baseball team and that he was forced to play Legion ball that he would be around in the sandwich round.
Maybe in 4 years we'll wish we had taken Barnes or Bradley and Nimmo will be stuck in Savannah hitting .220. But by the same token maybe Barnes is stuck in AA ball with a 5+ ERA for the Sox and not developing. But clearly, DePodesta loved Nimmo more than Bradley or Barnes and Alderson trusts DePo and signed off on this selection. So, we'll just have to be patient and hope the new scouts are on the money. I would be interested to know who they would've chosen had someone taken Nimmo ahead of them though. Oh, to get a look at the Mets draft day list of favorites!