2012 Roster:
Lineup:
1.
2. Justin Turner/Daniel Murphy, 2B
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Ike Davis, 1B
5. Jason Bay, LF
6. Angel Pagan, CF (Arb*)
7. Lucas Duda, RF
8. Josh Thole/Ronny Paulino, C (Arb*) [Just Paulino]
Rotation:
1. Johan Santana
2. R.A. Dickey
3. Jonathan Niese
4. Mike Pelfrey (Arb*)
5. Dillon Gee
Bullpen:
CL.
SU. Pedro Beato
SU. Bobby Parnell
MR. Taylor Buchholz (Arb*)
MR. D.J. Carrasco
MR.
LR. Manny Accosta
Bench:
Ruben Tejada, SS/2B
Nick Evans, 1B/3B/OF
Jason Pridie, OF
Money: Assuming nobody is non-tendered and based on the fact nobody has earned a SUBSTANTIAL Arbitration raise the Mets will have around $75-80 Million Dollars committed to the group of names above. So the Mets will have between $20-45 Million Dollars to spend on new contracts.
Priority 1: Jose Reyes
The Mets can either pay Reyes what he wants, use Ruben Tejada (lacks power and speed), use Jordany Valdespin (lacks patience and fielding) or sign the shells of what once were Jimmy Rollins and Rafael Furcal. In short... the Mets HAVE to sign Reyes. I don't think he goes OVER $20 Million per year but even if he goes that high... you still have to do it. When you chose not to trade him (which was a nice thing to do for us fans) you also chose to sign him.
Priority 2: Replacing Beltran
There are a few corner outfielders who you could sign... I wonder if they would end up being major improvements over who we had. There are: Ryan Ludwick (33), Laynce Nix (31), Josh Willingham (33), Cody Ross (31), Michael Cuddyer (33), David DeJesus (32), Jason Kubel (29), Nick Swisher (31) or... Carlos Beltran (35). Stack them against Lucas Duda, Nick Evans, Fernando Martinez and Kirk Nieuwenhuis... there are surely a few I'd think about, but nobody I'd spend much money on.
Priority 3: Rotation Needs Tune Up
Mets have a full rotation for 2012. Santana, Dickey, Niese, Pelfrey and Gee... that's five. I just don't know if Santana cuts it as the only "Front-Line" starter on the team. Sure Niese has moments of looking pretty awesome but Pelfrey and Gee are Back-end pitchers no matter how you slice them. The way I see it there are two options: C.J. Wilson (31) and Yu Darvish (25). Yu will cost more (overall) but also sign a smaller contract (it's the way that posting ends up working). Wilson is the best combination of age, stuff and competence in the upcoming free agent class and he will have suitors galore. Here's the rub. Beyond them, I wouldn't call any of the free agent starters more than #3 pitchers in the Met rotation and that isn't worth it.
Priority 4: Who's Closing?
There is actually a good list of candidates and the Met vacancy can probably be filled without breaking the bank. We just may have to reach towards the bottom of this list to do it cheaply. Closers in terms of value highest to lowest: Heath Bell (34), Jonathan Papelbon (31), Matt Capps (28), Francisco Rodriguez (30), Jonathan Broxton (28), Frank Francisco (32), Francisco Cordero (37), Jon Rauch (33), Brad Lidge (35) and Joe Nathan (37). Face it, the Mets will need one of these guys for a short-term solution... even if Mejia ends up the closer of the future.
Priority 5: Angel In The Outfield?
Is Angel Pagan a non-tender candidate? I don't think he should be... at least... not the same way I think Pelfrey should. However I'm not sold that he deserves the starting job in CF. The Mets REALLY only have one prospect who can play CF and is close to ready (and he's injured), Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Meanwhile they could take a stab at Grady Sizemore (29) succeeding in a new environment.
Priority 6: Waiting For Lefty
Guess who needs a LOOGY... again. O'Connor might work out for the Mets but until then... my sights are set on holding onto Chris Capuano as the #6 starter/LOOGY for the 2012 season. Other lefties: Tim Byrdak (38), Mike Gonzalez (34), John Grabow (33), Javier Lopez (34), Hideki Okajima (36), J.C. Romero (36) and George Sherrill (35).
Phlavio's 2012 Roster:
Lineup:1. Jose Reyes, SS (S)
2. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L)
3. David Wright, 3B (R)
4. Ike Davis, 1B (L)
5. Angel Pagan, CF (S)
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, RF (L)
7. Jason Bay, LF (R)
8. Josh Thole, C (L)
Rotation:
1. Johan Santana
2. Yu Darvish
3. Jonathan Niese
4. R.A. Dickey
5. Dillon Gee
Bullpen:
CL. Jonathan Broxton
SU. Bobby Parnell
SU. Pedro Beato
MR. Taylor Buchholz
MR. Mike Gonzalez
LR. D.J. Carrasco
LR. Chris Capuano
Bench:
Ronny Paulino, C (R)
Justin Turner, IF (R)
Lucas Duda, LF/RF/1B (L)
Nick Evans, LF/RF/1B/3B (R)
Josh Satin, IF (R)
Summary: Sign Jose Reyes. Mike Pelfrey is either non-tendered or traded depending on interest. You hold an open competition for RF with Duda, Evans, Nieuwenhuis and Fernando Martinez. I decided Kirk won... which is arbitrary. Win posting rights and sign Yu Darvish. Sign Broxton to a short-term contract and allow him to find himself. Bring back Capuano and sign Mike Gonzalez (adds closer depth and a valuable lefty) because having only one lefty in the pen is dumb.
Nice job! One of the most well thought out posts I've ever seen. I don't agree across the board but the thought process is probably similar to that of Sandy Alderson.
ReplyDeleteThanks Holmer, I don't think it'll shake out remotely like this... I've never been right before, but it's what I'd do.
ReplyDeleteCan't really argue with any of that and this would put out payroll around $115-$120 ish after some quick guestimation and give us a pretty competitive team. Personally, I wouldn't be against bringing back Beltran if the feeling is mutual, (especially considering whoever signed his contract was genius since we wouldn't have to give up a 1st round draft pick to get him-lol) but I may be in the minority on that. I love the idea of Yu Darvish, but other issues (Wilpon-Madoff) will certainly prevent that from happening. Look for another Capuano type pitcher on a low cost contract to come in and compete for the 3,4,5 spot. All in all, good read, even better if it all happend.
ReplyDeleteBeltran is probably the best (hitting) OF that is going into free agency, but I would REALLY prefer taking a stab at Darvish. In terms of Madoff I think the Wilpons (who are already down to a $300 Million Dollar suit (down from $1 Billion) will not be on the hook for nearly as much as we all assumed. I ALSO think Einhorn will stay on and that $200 Mil in cash could sure be helpful in acquiring a pitcher posted from Japan.
ReplyDeleteI like your optimism, it's just that the Mets were never really in on posting money for players in the past, Chapman, Dice-K, etc. so what makes us think they will be now, let alone be the top bidder? Let's be real, we all know the Phillies will be the top poster and slide him in as their 5th starter.
ReplyDeleteThere is no chance. Nadda, zip, zero, zilch chance that the Wilpons or Alderson pay a huge posting fee and then negotiate a.huge contract for a pitcher whose never thrown even batting practice in mlb. This isnt Omar's mets, it's Sandys and that thirty million + in posting cash is not going to Yu!
ReplyDeleteThere is no chance. Nadda, zip, zero, zilch chance that the Wilpons or Alderson pay a huge posting fee and then negotiate a.huge contract for a pitcher whose never thrown even batting practice in mlb. This isnt Omar's mets, it's Sandys and that thirty million + in posting cash is not going to Yu!
ReplyDelete