2012 Draft Profile: - The Ups and Downs of Pick Projecting

Some early observations about next June’s draft.


1. Most of the early mock draft s are predictably filled with the usual college juniors. Very few go past the first round so it’s relatively easy to line up 30 names everyone is familiar with. Remember, 30 represents a first round without any added picks earned when someone hasn’t been drafted the previous year.


2. The early on first pick was Tampa Jesuit (FL.)High School RHP Lance McCullers Jr., but he has been dropping lately behind two other right handers, Stanford’s Mark Appel and Harvard –Westlake (CA.) High School’s Lucas Giolito. I expect all three to go in the first five picks, but, if they don’t, it will be McCullers that drops out first.


3. There’s a couple of guys that are beginning to be projected way earlier than first reported and, realistically, they currently are coming in far too high. Georgia Southern’s first baseman Victor Roache, who led the nation last year in home runs, has been mocked as high as 4th, which just isn’t going to happen. Also, I’ve got Florida catcher Mike Zunino coming in 3rd (Baseball America) which is just plain stupid. Mike should be in the top 10 while Roache will be right behind him.


4. There’s a handful of players that are now being named pretty consistently. Players like LHP Hunter Virant, C Stryker Trahan, RHP Carson Kelly, 1B Richie Shaffer, SS Carlos Correa, and outfielders Tyler Naquin, Anthony Alford, Rhett Wiseman, and Jesse Winkler have all been mentioned multiple times as late first round picks or early second.


5. The hottest pick right now is OF Byron Buxton, who wasn’t even mentioned in the first set of  mock drafts. He’s come in 11th,14th, and 5th in the last three.


6. To show you the accuracy of this process, OF Brian Goodwin has been picks three times so far.


7. Fading players… RHPs Tucker Simpson and Hayden Hurst, catcher Blake Hickman, and outfielder Jacob Stewart.