Okay, so the Mets are likely going to see a drastic reduction in payroll next year. Although we don’t know at this point exactly where it will end up, I’m inclined to take Alderson at his word (100-110M) because he’s been a pretty straight shooter since his arrival. Also, given the available free agent options out there, I can’t blame the FO for not expecting the payroll to be much higher than that level. Maybe I’m guilty of putting too positive a spin on things, but maybe the FO would like to spend a bit more and would do so if they found a ‘great fit’ they’d be able to bring that player in. However, they won’t spend money just for the sake of spending it and if they miss out on their targets they won’t turn around and spend money just because it’s there. I don’t see this group going out and signing a ‘consolation’ free agent after missing out on one they want and then crowing about their willingness to spend on a winner….there won’t be any Kevin Appiers.
Since we’re considering what the budget is and how the FO might try and build a better ball club I wanted to run through what money is already spent for next year, where money can be saved, and where it can be spent.
As it stands right now, the lineup looks something like:
Ca – Thole, Nickeas
1B – Davis
2B – Turner
3B – Wright(15), Murphy
SS – Tejada
OF – Bay(16), Duda, Pagan(4+), Evans
SP – Johan(24), Peflrey(4+), Dickey(4.25), Niese, Gee
RP – Beato, Parnell, Carrasco(1.2)
Cot’s has the Mets’ contracts for 2011 listed at $142M and for 2012 at almost $67M without factoring in arbitration raises for Pelfrey, Pagan, Paulino, Buchholz, and Parnell or salaries for the Mets’ ‘under-control' players. Also included are prorated values for Bay’s and Wright’s signing bonuses as well as the option buyout for K Rod, numbers that should balance out. Their spreadsheet can be found here - http://tinyurl.com/mets2012-budget.
For the sake of argument, let’s assume that the Mets will move on from Pelfrey, Pagan, and Paulino (I will touch on these changes in-depth in another post - briefly, an acquired pitcher will replace Pelfrey, Pagan's .700 OPS shouldn't be difficult to replace, and Nickeas will replace Paulino) and that Buchholz and Parnell will only be receiving modest raises next year. Let’s also assume that the ‘under-control’ players will all be making about $500,000. That should place the Mets’ payroll at about $75 million with 6 spots to fill. This should leave budget room to sign Jose Reyes and acquire a starting pitcher. Given his injury history, 2nd half swoon, and the fact that I believe he wants to stay in NY, I’m assuming Reyes signs for $18M per year. That puts the payroll at $93M. I’m also assuming that the Mets can get CJ Wilson for $18M per as well. Although he’s been strong, his track record is very short and he is over the age of 30. I don’t see him getting a Cliff Lee-type deal. That puts the payroll at $111 Million for 2012 with 4 spots to fill. In total, those 3 back-up roles and 1 starting CF will likely cost between $2 and $5 million. That would push the payroll up to $113-116 million on the year. I realize that it’s a few million over the $110 mark, however it’s not over by much. If ownership wants fans to keep coming to the ballpark they’re going to have to put a winning team on the field. They need to be more concerned about adding productive ballplayers than they are about nickel and diming on the payroll. The best way to do that next year is to re-sign Reyes, save money on Pelfrey, Pagan, and Paulino, and reinvest that money in a pitcher.
There is just no way that the Mets sign Wilson. I've seen this posted before on this site and frankly it's mind boggling. Do the Wilpons want to keep their fan base? Of course! But signing Wilson, a pitcher half the Mets fans know nothing about, isnt going to put asses in the seats at Citi. They dont make their money from the fanatics like us, they make it from the thousands of seat fillers that only show up when it's "cool" to go to a Mets game. Which will only happen when they are dominating again. The fanatics always pay win or lose, but selling out everyday takes a great product and signing a lefty no one heard off isnt going to magically draw 2.5 million people to attend in 2012. It wouldn't even make them playoff worthy. In the next 2 years, the Mets' four top pitching prospects will be ready for the majors, Santana's contract will have expired, and the Madoff mess will hopefully be over, so why spend the cash now when the reward is so low? Now, forget the argument I just stated. Here's this...the Wilpons are BROKE! They've lost countless millions and owe even more. Einhorn tried to steal the marble rye right out from Ole Man Fred's hands while he was seemingly limping along begging for a handout, only to end up pulling out a switch blade and making Einhorn look silly. That 200 million is bye bye and now they plan on selling off bits and pieces of the franchise like they're pushing girl scout cookies to their family members! All this means is that at least for 2012 and possibly even 2013, it's going to be growing pains with the current roster so we better hope for a really healthy and prosperous change. This is not a horrible team,...when healthy and not slumping. I'd actually be happy if they all could just stay on the field. If they can, this team might actually win 90 games. If not, same old, same old.
ReplyDeleteNo one is claiming that CJ Wilson is a superstar-level pitcher who is going to put asses in the seats.
ReplyDeleteWhat he is is a top pitcher who gives the Mets a chance at winning games. Winning games puts asses in the seats. If 'names' did that, attendance would be just fine this year with Reyes and Wright on the roster. Seems a bit like a straw man argument to me.
Regardless if you like CJ or not, if this team is going to compete they're going to need another pitcher. There's nothing 'mind-boggling' about adding talent to the team, especially when the FO has talked about a $110M payroll.