Mack: Thanks for the question, Joe.
First of all, I noticed that Sandy Alderson announced tonight that Johan Santana will not be throwing winter ball this off-season. What a shock! I want to remind what I said a month ago. It’s my opinion that you will never see Santana pitch another regular season inning for the New York Mets. I’m sticking to my story.
That being said, the opening day rotation is going to look a lot different than what finishes the season. There could be three (Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, Jenrry Mejia) different starters come September, though I still think that the Mets plan on using Mejia as their closer.
My guess for the spring:
SP1 – I believe that Chris Young will be resigned to another one-year deal, with a second year option that the Mets can get out of with a minimal payout. His injury prevents his agent from getting a multiple year deal from any other club, and Alderson loved what he was doing for the Mets (1-0, 1.88, 0.96) in 2011. Remember… his career numbers are: 49-34, 3.74, 1.20. That’s big time numbers worth revisiting.
SP2 – Jon Niese has been a very unlucky pitcher in 2011 and is going to be in the Mets rotation for a long time. I believe you will see big time numbers from him in 2012.
SP3 – Alderson is committed to bringing back Mike Pelfrey. I have nothing more to say about this decision.
SP4 – R.A. Dickey has one more year left on his contract and, frankly, I don’t see any reason why the Mets shouldn’t consider another year’s extension while pitchers like Zack Wheeler can mature.
SP5 – This one’s wide open. Could be Dillon Gee, Chris Schwinden, even Miquel Batista for one more year. This slot will be earned in spring training.
Well, considering Santana still has 2 entire years left on the contract, it's pretty stomach turning to think he might never pitch another inning for the Mets again. Knowing the history of shoulder injuries, it's definatly a possibility. What is rather odd, is that Chris Young just had his shoulder repaired, and yet you have him penciled in a SP1. I dont know why Young gets the benefit of the doubt, but they both just had their capsules repaired in their shoulders and Johan is at least six months ahead of Young in rehab. I would think Santana is way more likely to pitch again for the Mets. I'd think it would be really bad business to give two fifths of your rotation to pitchers coming off shoulder surgery and I gotta believe the Mets front office would think long and hard before rolling the dice on that one. RA Dickey has been phenomenal and a team leader. I would give him a two year contract extention and hope he signs it. It's obvious now, he's mastered his craft and is getting the most out of his ability to throw that knuckle ball at such a wide spectrum of velocity. Not many flutter ball pitchers can throw it in the eighties and it misses the barrel on a lot of bats. I hope Pelfrey is give ASAP!
ReplyDeleteHet Charles...
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, I have been wrong before.
Secondly, some of us find out things that others don't.
I said for 6 months that Santana would never return this year and, trust me, he never was going to. The whle rehab - Savannah bullshit was just to sell tickets.
I do not base what I say about Santana on his shoulder.
I base it on the same thing I based (and was correct) on my statements about John Maine two years ago.
He's done.
I think Santana will be back but that he'll be a middle rotation arm at best.
ReplyDeleteChris Young re-signing ONLY makes sense if there is an injury or Mike Pelfrey is let go.
Mike Pelfrey should be let go or traded. (I know that you would if you could)
I don't think the Wilpon's can expect the fans to have confidence in a rotation of: Young, Niese, Dickey, Pelfrey, Gee. I think that they will see the $$$ leaving with fan dis-interest and that they'll give Alderson a larger budget then a lot of people project.
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