Q and A with Christopher Soto: Pelfrey, Pagan, Nieuwenhuis

Christopher Soto emailed me:

Hey Mack, long time reader of both you and Matt Cerrone's Metsblog but my job just blocked his site so I’m all yours now lol. Mike Pelfrey is expected to earn anywhere from $5-$6 million in arbitration if he's offered it. We can safely assume the Gee, Dickey, and Niese will all be back without a shadow of a doubt, but lets assume that you are Sandy Alderson.

Scenario: You lost Jose Reyes to free agency but have not traded D. Wright. Both Chris Capuano and Chris Young would like to return to the Mets at half the expected price of Pelfrey.  Do you offer Pelfrey arbitration or sign Capuano (or even add Schwinden) to be in the rotation and put the remaining money elsewhere like the rotation? The same can be asked about Pagan? Do you bring him back or let him go and let Captain Kirk Nieuwenhuis take a crack at Citi Field CF starter and use the money Pagan would win in arbitration elsewhere (or cut the budget of course)?

Mack:

Thanks Chris for your kind words. Someday I too hope to be honored by office blocking J

If I was Sandy Alderson… and I pretend to be him around here almost daily… I would be torn between keeping up a good face in 2012 by fielding the best players under contract (Pagan and Pelfrey) and the well known internal fact that this team will not truly compete for a serious playoff run until the earliest, 2013.

You are correct when you say that everything starts with Reyes.

Those two draft picks would give the Mets five in the top 100 players, a great opportunity to continue the excellent rebuilding of the system that is already being executed. But, none of those four will come into play by 2014, Sandy’s must win year.

I’ve tried very hard to get status reports on both Jenrry Mejia and Young, to no avail, so I have to at this point believe neither will be ready by April 1^st.

The Mets have to give Johan Santana the SP1 out of camp… if he can do it. Trust me, no one will know until he’s on the mound every five starts, but let’s assume that, at least April, your rotation will be: Santana, Pelfrey (out of respect), Niese, Dickey, Gee/Schwinden.

Me?

I go all in for 2012. I only play players that can help me in 2013. I would not offer arbitration to either Pelfrey or Pagan and let the cards fall as they lay. Gee becomes SP4, Schwinny SP5 and I open Buffalo with Jeurys   Familia in the rotation, while I have Zack Wheeler and Mike Harvey open Binghamton. The goal here is to have both Familia and Harvey in the Mets rotation by the second half of the season.

I should also be able to add Mejia by then also which gives the possibility of three prospect starters being added mid-season, or one as a closer.

Regarding center field, that looks to be solved in the 2013 free agent market, so I’d sign a 2-3mil stop gap for a season, give Kirk the first half of the season in Buffalo to get his legs back, and keep a close eye on the progress of Juan Lagares.

But, that’s just me.